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Idle thoughts - pregame edition


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patfanken

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Just some musingx to help get you through to the game. enjoy

1. DEPTH - Its a word we use all the time, but on most NFL teams rarely see. But if you think about it, beyond most NFL teams, the Pats have proven to really have a wealth of quality depth. After about 3 years of getting whacked around by the "injury stick", the Pats have had a relatively good year so far (knock on wood) But still there have been critical season ending injuries to Mayo, and Ridley fairly early in the season, and more recently Easley; as well as fairly long term injuries to ChJones and Siliga. Clearly not as bad as some teams have gone through, but we've had our share.

Yet its how well we've managed to deal with these injuries shows how long we've come from recent years. Think about it. We picked up a released player and elevated a practice squad player and now have as good a rushing game as anyone going into the playoffs. Gray, Blount and Vareen give us great skill in that area. When Jones and Siliga were down, we added Branch and Ayers and didn't miss a beat. And with their return only made our defense more flexible deep and talented.

This week we will be without Edelman Arrington and Connolly. I have no doubt that their roles will be adequately filled by Amendola, Dennard and Kline. I can't remember at time in the last several years when I can remember a Patriots team with THIS kind of quality depth in so many areas. In the past a loss like Arrington would have had us looking for an UDFA, or refugee from the offense, while this year we can go to last year's 2nd best CB/

2. Amendola is likely to get around 8 or more targets this week, and I fully expect him to take advantage of the opportunity. Last season he was injured. This season he's been relegated to being the 4th or 5th option. For tomorrow at least he will be the 3rd. His detractors will either have to eat some crow, or get to pile on even more. I think it will be the former.

3. This is going against the grain, but contrary to the current wisdom, I don't think the Pats mishandled the end of the first half of the Dolphin game. The ball was on the 15 with only 4o some seconds left. Not only had Brady already been picked off once, he had had several passes blocked during that first half. The Pats had a 2 score lead, and even with the TO's, they only had time for about 6 more plays. So even if your offense HAD been running smoothly to that point, it wouldn't be a great idea to try and move the ball through the air, since Miami had 3 TO's as well.. So the Pats went for a strategy that should have given the ball back to Miami on its own 30 with 30 odd seconds left and no TO's I'd take that every day.

If the Pats don't give up one of the longest punt returns of the season, its doubtful the Dolphins score.....but they do. Even then, IIRC, the announcers said it would have been a 55 yd FG from hat point. And while the critics universally condemned BB for having Butler on Wallace, I thought he did a decent job and had him fairly well covered, enough so Wallace was forced to make a one-handed falling down catch to make the play. Kudos to Tannyhill and Wallace for a great throw and catch. I'm not sure how much better people expected Butler to play him.

So too points. It was less a failure of strategy than execution on the punt coverage (until that point an area of great strength), And less an issue of poor coverage by Butler than great execution from Tannyhill and Wallace.

4. I'm constantly amazed had how well Rex is coming off as his regime flounders to close in NJ. Everyone seems to get blamed EXCEPT Rex. It only goes to show you that when the media falls in love with you because you give good copy, you can go far. IMHO (and I know some don't agree) Bill Parcells gets over rated because he got and keeps getting great press. BTW - getting good press means having all your successes and good qualities continually hyped while having your negative qualities and failures relatively ignored.

Rex has a great defensive mind, and he gets his players to consistently play hard for him. But as a HC, he doesn't pay attention to the details, doesn't hold his players and coaches accountable, is horrible in assessing players, and has dramatically failed to develop and improve the players on his roster.

I will miss him when he leaves the Jets He was a true "character" and his flaws would keep the Jets from becoming a serious long term threat.. I will probably enjoy him if/when he joins the media. If the hype helps get him another HCing job immediately, I will look forward to the disaster he'll likely to become.

5, As far as the game goes, I expect the Jets to come out and give it their all. I expect them to keep it close into the 2nd or 3rd quarter, but at some time, the Pats will expand the lead to 2 scores and the Jets will realize that its over and give up the ghost. When that happens will determine whether this is a 31-13 game or a 45-10 game

6. How bad is it to be a Jet fan now and how badly the rivalry has diminished. If you check out the new JI board, or ganggreen, and you will find only one very short thread between the 2 boards discussing tomorrow's game, and, with rare exceptions, you think the posts were written by Pats fans. Things are so bad there now, there is only one thing of which I'm 100% certain. Midway through the 4th quarter, there will be more Pats fans at Met Life stadium, than Jet fans, :rolleyes:

7. One thing I'm curious to see Sunday is how persistent we will be to run the ball. Common sense would be to spread them out and attack their terminally weak secondary and avoid the strength of the team, their front 7. But something makes me think that BB wants to establish more physicality and balance going into the playoffs, and the Jets weak offense gives us more patience to do it.

8. Great come back by the Chargers. I turned that game off twice. The last time after Kapernick's 90 yd run, and didn't realize the Niner's had lost until well after the game was over. A good lesson in why you DON'T call off the dogs until well into the 4rh quarter. A remarkable game by a courageous team. Not having their best RB and WR, and continuing to incur injury after injury, makes me a closet Charger fan for the rest of this season. I'm going to hate that they might not get into the playoffs while NO, Caroliina, or Atlanta might.

9. In the same respect, bad choke by the Eagles. Very hard to look at the stats of that game and match it up to the final score. Hard to believe Philly is going to need a lot of help to even get into the playoffs. It really IS a long season and there isn't much room for error.
 
Nice thoughts, Ken. I'm definitely hoping for a much more effective and aggressive defensive scheme tomorrow, as opposed to the first matchup. If that's the case, I too envision a double digit victory. That said, they'll certainly need to do more than just "show up" in a divisional game with odd circumstances. I don't believe they'll pull away until the 3rd quarter or so.
 
I disagree with #3 above, but that has been argued enough..

Good post, as usual, seems as though the offense has been somewhat inconsistent the past couple of weeks and looking for consistency.. the TOP has completely favored the opposing team. Need to hold on to the ball longer..

What I hope for is a win first, but diversifying the weapons of Brady would be advantageous for the "tournament".. he seems to have been too focused on the big 3(maybe 4 w/Vereen)...

Nice opportunity to see how our backups have progressed and how deep we really are..

Defensively no major injuries..
 
Nice thoughts, Ken. I'm definitely hoping for a much more effective and aggressive defensive scheme tomorrow, as opposed to the first matchup. If that's the case, I too envision a double digit victory. That said, they'll certainly need to do more than just "show up" in a divisional game with odd circumstances. I don't believe they'll pull away until the 3rd quarter or so.

I wonder what the over/under is on Patradomous going on another rant if the Pats don't cover the spread?
 
Eric decker is making 15m this year. Cap hit of 11m next year.

62 catches 720 yards ZERO Tds

In contrast, amendola made 10m last year and 7m this year.

15 catches 112 yards 1 TDs

Are they the most overpaid pair of WRs in the league?
 
Eric decker is making 15m this year. Cap hit of 11m next year.

62 catches 720 yards ZERO Tds

In contrast, amendola made 10m last year and 7m this year.

15 catches 112 yards 1 TDs

Are they the most overpaid pair of WRs in the league?

Tempting to say it, but I think Decker can be explained by having to play for the Jest, but he was the one who chased the greenbacks to play in Jersey. Amendola...I don't hate the guy and I still think that if he were one of Brady's top three reads, he'd be decent. He's just far down the depth chart because there are more reliable options ahead of him.
 
This is going against the grain, but contrary to the current wisdom, I don't think the Pats mishandled the end of the first half of the Dolphin game.

This ground has been covered, but it wasn't that they ran that is the problem, it is how. When Bill Belichick personally apologizes for a three play sequence of events, there obviously was a problem.
 
See number 9 above.

This is a division game with a highly motivated opponent. The Pats need to bring their "A" game. If they can get up a couple of scores going into the 4th, the Jets might quit, but I've only seen the Jets quit against the Pats once in the last few years, and that was a game with the freakiest series of plays I've ever seen.

This will be a dogfight, I think.
 
Eric decker is making 15m this year. Cap hit of 11m next year.

62 catches 720 yards ZERO Tds

In contrast, amendola made 10m last year and 7m this year.

15 catches 112 yards 1 TDs

Are they the most overpaid pair of WRs in the league?

The main difference here is that with an elite QB throwing the ball, Decker has proven to be a very productive WR. Between Geno Smith and an over the hill Mike Vick, the fact that he has the stats he has in that offense is a miracle.

No question Amendola is overpaid for his production. The signing was a good one at the time, but bad in terms of realizing expectations. Injuries and the emergence of Edelman sidetracked DA here.
 
This game matters a lot to both teams, for completely different reasons. Home field advantage is a big deal for the Pats. And, of course, the Jets are playing their Superbowl.

On defense, the Pats have as near to their playoff defense as we can expect. The Jets' running game gave them fits in the first meeting and they've added Harvin. On offense, they're missing important players so we'll get to see whether Amendola, Kline, Gray and Vereen can take an extra role. It will be a reality check on both sides of the ball.

I've made my usual Pats-optimistic pick in the predict-the-score competition but it really wouldn't surprise me if this were a close game that the Pats win, a Pats blow-out or even (*gulp*) a Jets victory.
 
Jets played perhaps their best game of the year the first time these teams met. They probably should have won. Geno looked great. The running game was immense. I can't see them playing that well again. The Pats are better defensively and Brady usually plays very well in NJ.

The only difference is Harvin. Can he be a big factor in a close game to swing it the Jets way? I haven't seen anyone address his potential impact on the game.
 
No offense, I am getting tired of the "this is the Jets' Super Bowl". This is a team that lost eight straight games and 11 of 12 games. If they cannot get up to stop a slide like that, what makes them think they can get up for a game where they are two games away from ending a nightmare season.

I think some of the Jets players have checked out and are just waiting for the season to be over. This is the same team that got blown out by a team that literally got snowed in and couldn't practice all week to get up for their game. They also barely beat an awful Titans team and lost to an awful Vikings team.

I think people overrate the Pats being a team's Super Bowl. Players may get more up for some teams than others, but I seriously doubt the Jets are playing this game like if they win the season is validated or anything. I think some players will step it up to get some respect, but others are already thinking about where they are going to be vacationing in January.
 
Jets played perhaps their best game of the year the first time these teams met. They probably should have won. Geno looked great. The running game was immense. I can't see them playing that well again. The Pats are better defensively and Brady usually plays very well in NJ.

The only difference is Harvin. Can he be a big factor in a close game to swing it the Jets way? I haven't seen anyone address his potential impact on the game.

I agree. The Jets did play their best game of the year against the Pats and couldn't win and that was before the Pats pulled it together and became arguably the best team in the league.

Harvin is playing with a sprained ankle. He injured it vs. the Vikes and was a non-factor last week. I think people may be making a bigger deal out of him than they should for this game. But since the Jets have nothing of offense that scares you, what else are they going to be talking about?
 
I am predicting a beat down, I just don't see it any other way. Jets lose in fantastic fashion to put the nail in the coffin of Rexy's reign.
 
No offense, I am getting tired of the "this is the Jets' Super Bowl". This is a team that lost eight straight games and 11 of 12 games. If they cannot get up to stop a slide like that, what makes them think they can get up for a game where they are two games away from ending a nightmare season.

Well, we'll see, of course. That's why the game is interesting.

But my impression of the Jets in the games I've managed to persuade myself to hold my nose enough to look at is that they are a moderately decent team with a lousy quarterback (and an even lousier back-up) condemned to futility by farcical episodes of incompetence. If they were to eliminate those for an afternoon, they wouldn't be a pushover.

I wouldn't be surprised at a Pats blow-out, though.
 
Some comments on the comments:

1. I've come around on the Jets' suberbowl thing. When a team gets psyched for a certain opponent for whatever the reason, the biggest effect actually occurs DURING the week. Maybe he prepares better, comes with more focus, or practices with more intensity. Whatever emotional gain you might get is probably over by the 3rd series. So while yes, I'm guessing the Pats ARE going to have to survive the Jets best shot in the first quarter, any advantage the Jets gain by having this be "their superbowl" will be over rather quickly.

Then it will be like every game in the NFL when a "bad" team plays a "good" one. The longer the "good" team lets the "bad" one stay in the game, the more competitive it will be. This one should be no different.

2. I'm with those who think Decker is a good WR. His stats may suck, but so does his QB and offense. So when you look on his numbers in that vein, they aren't so bad. With a good starting QB, Decker is a 1000 yd receiver. For that reason I think, HE's the one who draws Revis when they are in a press man coverage.

3. Just a testament to the Pats depth, that they can go into a game without their top 2 RB's and still trot out a guy who's gained 200 yds in a game(Gray), a proven 3rd down back (Vareen), and decent, dependable back up. (Boldin) Still it could be that given the loss of Blount, the Pats might be less likely to test the strength of the Jets D, when their secondary is such a glaring weakness. I'm very curious to see how it pans out.

4. I'd love to see DA get all the Edelman targets and end up with 80-100 yd day and prove the doubter wrong, but it could be that THIS might be the game where Tim Wright gets to see more than his usual targets.

5. I'm also curious to see how the Pats plan to take on that very good Jet run game. Will they pack the box and dare the Jets to throw it, will they try and scheme the threat, or will it be a matter of personnel. Could it mean we'd see some packages that will include Siliga, Branch, AND Vince?

6. I suspect we will see more "read option"/rollout kind of plays from the Jets today. Getting Smith on the edges of the Pats D could be effective. Not only do you extend the play and force the secondary to cover longer, you simplify Smith's options and hopefully improve execution. I think that's what I'd do, since the Pats will be so keyed on the RB's

7. BTW - the simplest and most effect way to deal with what we might see vs Seattle is to hit AND knock down the QB every time it's run, whether he has the ball or not. I can't believe how often QB's who run this kind of play get "free passes" when they hand the ball off.
 
Tempting to say it, but I think Decker can be explained by having to play for the Jest, but he was the one who chased the greenbacks to play in Jersey. Amendola...I don't hate the guy and I still think that if he were one of Brady's top three reads, he'd be decent. He's just far down the depth chart because there are more reliable options ahead of him.

I'm sure decker can play better. But 15m and 11m is elite money that demands double team. I don't think the opponent DC is losing any sleep about how to defend him.
 
The main difference here is that with an elite QB throwing the ball, Decker has proven to be a very productive WR. Between Geno Smith and an over the hill Mike Vick, the fact that he has the stats he has in that offense is a miracle.

No question Amendola is overpaid for his production. The signing was a good one at the time, but bad in terms of realizing expectations. Injuries and the emergence of Edelman sidetracked DA here.

Decker was the 3rd or 4th option on a stacked team. So while he had a great QB throwing to him, he had scrubs covering him. [Speculation] how much of his yards are garbage time yards?
 
Decker was the 3rd or 4th option on a stacked team. So while he had a great QB throwing to him, he had scrubs covering him. [Speculation] how much of his yards are garbage time yards?

In 2012 and 2013, D Thomas was #1 Decker was #2. Julius/WW flip/flopped #3 and #4.
 
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