Reviewing Brady's Contract - Will Brady Really Play For $8M A Year?

BelichickFan said:

I hate to go here but I'd prefer to have Garrapolo at $500K to Brady at $20M. Especially when you consider the players that could be signed with the money and the draft picks that could be acquired. Note, I do NOT expect this scenario but after a huge, guaranteed signing bonus at an older age that could have ended badly for the Patriots, now the team should make some gains on the back end.

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That's absolutely fair. Some teams are willing to pay $20M for a top franchise quarterback. We've seen what paying $20M did to DEN and we just don't want to pay our QB the top money.

hwc said:

Far be it from me to understand the logic of the league's sad sack, woe-be-gone, loser franchises. A lot of these owners think "franchise quarterbacks" grow on trees, just waiting to be picked, when the ESPN pundits declare them to be at the height of ripeness.

They don't understand that franchise QBs don't exist in a vacuum. They only develop in a situation where the team and the coaching (and some luck) allow.

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OK, I'm game.

Let's discuss the terrible franchises and how they pay the other top 3 quarterbacks in the league. New Orleans may have had some troubles, but I wouldn't call any of these franchises loser franchises.

Please tell me how paying Manning $20M has been a failure.
Please tell me how paying Rodgers $20M a year has been a failure.
Is New Orleans unhappy that paid Brees $20M a year?

Brady has been paid $16.5M for the past two years, less than any of these others (and we won't discuss the lower level quarterbacks who have also been paid, although BALT and DAL are happy with those deals). Your point seems to be that the patriots are a really smart franchise because they will get their top quarterback to play for less than half the price of everyone else over the next three years.

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LET'S BE CLEAR
The other three top quarterbacks are worth the $20M they are being paid. At least their teams think so.

I predicted he'd extend for much less than the market rate back in 2013. I was called an idiot. But I was right.

Brady wants to win. More money for other players increases the chance of a superbowl win. He's also rich and simply doesn't need the money even without his wife. He probably has 100m in the bank he's going to break a contract to get 5 more? Isn't he the guy who said "at the end of the day what's an extra million dollars"?

Now you posit that he may hold our or sandbag to force a trade or higher contract. That's the last thing he'd do. That would cost him more in lower endorsements alone than he'd make in higher salary elsewhere. He'd be a spoiled rich kid malcontent. He'd also ruin his legacy of 4 or 5 sb wins by going to a loser team with a new system. Yes he may insist on a contender but realistically his best chance is here.

Also Brady knew exactly what he was doing. Teams have decision points they have the option. Players don't unless they want to retire.

So in short I think the point is 180 degrees off course.

mgteich said:

???

No one has indicated that team has any incentive to voluntarily change a half-price contract with one of the very best quarterbacks in the league.

The issue is not for the team. The issue is for Brady. Please be clear. Do you think that the team should tell Brady to stuff it if Brady's agent were to approach the team indicating that he doesn't think that he should be being paid $7M. Players do this all the time, with various responses depending on the situation.

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You have no reason to think his agent would do that and many reasons to think he wouldn't. Brady knew when he signed he wanted to play to 40. Why agree to the salaries? What changed?

mgteich said:

You seem to believe that Brady signed for $11.5M a year. OK, so spread the $30M and make it $6M a year. So, it your position that Brady played 2013 for $6M and 2017 for $7M? So, Brady took $14M and $13M discount in each of the last two years. Is that what you think Brady did?

I may have a distorted view. I believe that Brady didn't play for his salary of $1M and $2M in 2013 and 2014. He didn't even play for $7M and $8M. I think that Brady understood that he was receiving a $30M check and as part of deal accepted a 2013 salary of $1M and a 2014 salary of $2M. Brady has received $33M over two years. Was he worth the money?
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BTW, how would folks feel if Manning reduced his 2015 salary to $1M so that the team could use the other $19M on other players? Folks point to examples of other sports. How about this NFL example?

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I would think wow he really wants to win.

mgteich said:

When Brady extended in 2013, almost everyone agreed that Brady wanted the guarantees. After all, he got $16.5M a year for 2013 and 2014 (signing bonus plus salaries). While this is not top quarterback money, he also got a guarantee of $24M if he were to be injured in 2013 or 2014.

SO HERE WE ARE
Brady's contract for 2015-2017 is guaranteed. The new money cost is $8M a year for three years. AS OF NOW, this is great deal for the patriots and a terrible deal for Brady. Brady certainly performed to the $16.5M level for 2013 and 2014, so nothing is "owed" either way.

The reason for media speculation should be obvious. Brady will be giving the patriots a HUGE discount starting in 2015, after playing for a reasonable contract for the past two years (still lower than some others were paid).

The OPEN speculative question is whether Brady will NOW play for the patriots for more than a 50% discount. I have no doubt that at least several of teams would pay Brady $20M a year, basically the deal that Manning secured. And given Brady's health, he should be able to secure more than $24M guaranteed of his present deal. And if you don't think that teams would pay $20M, certainly a 3 year $16M AAV contract would be reasonable (double the patriot deal).

BOTTOM LINE
The NFL is indeed a business. Players don't often voluntarily play for less than half their worth.
Brady signed a good deal for everyone. The contract structure made the contract a 2-part contract. So, here we are.

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He signed it.

Are you suggesting tom Brady will hold out and demand a trade?

mgteich said:

That's absolutely fair. Some teams are willing to pay $20M for a top franchise quarterback. We've seen what paying $20M did to DEN and we just don't want to pay our QB the top money.

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Your sarcasm is noted. However we're not talking about getting him signed, he's already signed. He happily took the $30M signing bonus, now he should happily take the back end.

Look, I'm a Mavericks fan. Does Brady want to be Dirk Nowitzki playing for less than half of what he could have gotten and adding players like Rondo, Parsons and Chandler or does he want to be Kobe Bryant who wants to win as long as he gets his money first.

If Brady is like Kobe, more power to him, it's his right to hold out. All I was saying is that if I were the Patriots I would keep Brady at his current contract but if he wants $20M I would prefer to trade him, use the $20M on our young core and add draft picks.

Where are these numbers coming from?

Both of these sites: http://patscap.com/brady.html and http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/tom-brady/ seem to indicate you're leaving out some money.

By your logic why did Brady play this and last seasons? All he had to do is decide he signed a 30M 0 season deal.

ThatllMoveTheChains!!! said:

Where are these numbers coming from?

Both of these sites: http://patscap.com/brady.html and http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/tom-brady/ seem to indicate you're leaving out some money.

By your logic why did Brady play this and last seasons? All he had to do is decide he signed a 30M 0 season deal.

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The rest of the money is part of the old deal, deferred money from past years.

If Brady wants to play into his 40's, the selfish business type in me hopes he follows the lead of Tim Duncan and Dirk Nowitzki. Brady commanding a team with no weaknesses would be nirvana.

AndyJohnson said:

He signed it.

Are you suggesting tom Brady will hold out and demand a trade?

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I'm not suggesting anything, just pointed out the situation.

Lot's of players and teams sign 5 year deals. My guess is that most of them have changes in compensation with the time period of the deal. That is why we look at signing bonuses and real money in the short term and the situation after a couple of years. Of course, we usually discuss this in the framework of a team dumping a player (as people seem willing to do for Wilfork and Mayo. One could ask whether the team signed the contracts. I think that they did.

I am not suggesting that Brady would demand a trade. I'm simply suggesting how I might advise if I were the agent of a player who was about to play for $7M when the market was over $20M and my pay was what was being paid to mediocre quarterbacks. Given where Brady is in his career, I would suggest two choices. Either just accept the low wages and hope that the team will use the money wisely.

Or, as a second choice, I would ask to be empowered to go to management and ask for a raise, and suggest that I don't see how Brady can play for $7M when other top quarterbacks are getting $20M. I would suggest that this needs to be worked out and that I wasn't sure that Brady would participate all that much in the voluntary workouts if this situations weren't solved. Brady has no injury risk, so he can show up at mandatory practices. But no, I wouldn't suggest demanding a trade. The team can do as it must. If they choose to be fair, they can do so, or not.
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Look, contracts are negotiated all the time. Brady has produced and is worth much more than this salary. This should be fixed. Mayo is worth less and this should be fixed. Wilfork's salary may or may not be more than he is worth, but the cap hit is too high and the contract will need to be fixed.

So, ALL these contracts were SIGNED. All COULD be torn up. Most posters seem to think that contracts should only be torn up if the player is getting the better deal.

kennyb said:

I would think wow he really wants to win.

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I think that you would think that Manning would really want to win if he reduced his slaty to $1M when the market was $20M or more. And perhaps Brady will do the same. The market is say $21M. Let's see if he plays at 1/3 his worth. If he really wants to win, he will ask the team to reduce his salary by another $6M to $1M.

BTW, please list the players who have done this in the NFL. Obviously, some players like Bruschi volunteered to play for less. But this is very rare, and is not done by top players.

kennyb said:

You have no reason to think his agent would do that and many reasons to think he wouldn't. Brady knew when he signed he wanted to play to 40. Why agree to the salaries? What changed?

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We all knew how old Wilfork and Mayo would be. Why are we discussing new contracts for them?

mgteich said:

OK, I'm game.

Let's discuss the terrible franchises and how they pay the other top 3 quarterbacks in the league. New Orleans may have had some troubles, but I wouldn't call any of these franchises loser franchises.

Please tell me how paying Manning $20M has been a failure.
Please tell me how paying Rodgers $20M a year has been a failure.
Is New Orleans unhappy that paid Brees $20M a year?

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Who said anything about Denver, New Orleans, or Green Bay?

I was referring to the kind of sad sack, desperate, loserville franchises that would make a blockbuster trade and send a couple of first round picks to the Patriots for a 38 year old Tom Brady. I don't see the Broncos, the Saints, or the Packers as being likely trade partners.

Honestly, I don't see the Pats making a trade. Brady's contract is attractive enough that they don't need to. Even if they benched him and started Garoppolo, their combined salaries for a starter and a back up would be fine, either way, through 2017.

I'm not the one suggesting that Brady is going to put up a stink over his contract. He's a smart guy. He knew the deal he was signing when he signed it. He wanted the deal that made him cut-proof.

kennyb said:

I predicted he'd extend for much less than the market rate back in 2013. I was called an idiot. But I was right.

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I just look at things a bit differently than you do.

You are correct if all that matters is AAV. As of December 2014, Brady has not played a single year at a discount (that is after rookie contract), NOT ONE.

Look, I'd be as happy as anyone if Brady played for peanuts as a gift to the Kraft, Belichick and the fans. But let's be clear. This has NOT happened before. And, we all very well understand that the team does not hesitate to give any player an ultimatum to reduce their contract or be cut.

hwc said:

Who said anything about Denver, New Orleans, or Green Bay?

I was referring to the kind of sad sack, desperate, loserville franchises that would make a blockbuster trade and send a couple of first round picks to the Patriots for a 38 year old Tom Brady. I don't see the Broncos, the Saints, or the Packers as being likely trade partners.

Honestly, I don't see the Pats making a trade. Brady's contract is attractive enough that they don't need to. Even if they benched him and started Garoppolo, their combined salaries for a starter and a back up would be fine, either way, through 2017.

I'm not the one suggesting that Brady is going to put up a stink over his contract. He's a smart guy. He knew the deal he was signing when he signed it. He wanted the deal that made him cut-proof.

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BTW, I never have suggested a trade.

The reason for media speculation should be obvious. Brady will be giving the patriots a HUGE discount starting in 2015, after playing for a reasonable contract for the past two years (still lower than some others were paid).

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Will he? I dunno. What's the market for 38 year old QBs on 3 year guaranteed deals?

mgteich said:

BTW, I never have suggested a trade.

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I did. It's the only way that Brady does not play out the remaining three years of his contract (unless he retires). The Pats would have be brain-dead to cut him, even if he's only holding a clipboard on the bench.

If he decided to retire at age 38, I'm certainly not going to hold it against him. I would stand and applaud him all the way to the Hall of Fame.

From the Pats cap standpoint, a trade or retirement are the same. The remaining guaranteed salary goes away in either case. Of course, the Pats might have to go sign a veteran back up QB, which would probably cost $5 million a year for a good one.

mgteich said:

The rest of the money is part of the old deal, deferred money from past years.

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It looks like 6.4 is, but 7.2 looks like new money.

I'm still interested in the mgteich formula for prorating signing bonuses.

This Tom ****ing Brady we're talking about.

He will play out his contract.