Keeping the Defense Together

1960Pats said:

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He's released, traded or didn't re-up; Bledsoe, Law, Milloy, McGinest, Vrabel, Branch, Seymour, Samuel, Mankins and others. Vince will be the latest to join the list. You might get another productive year out of him. You can get 2-3 players signed to contracts for longer than "ONE" year. It's the way he's run this franchise. It's also the reason he's been successful. He doesn't let sentimentality affect his football decisions.

Like Cam Neely said the other day "If Wayne Gretzky can get traded...anyone can" I know it's hockey and talking about trades but same goes for any sport. Never know who will be on your team year to year ect and who you can keep $$ because you can't keep them all.

Rob0729 said:

I still think the Seahawks are a bad comparison. They had a lot of young players playing on their rookie deals last year and they still haven't given Russell Wilson a deal. In 2016, Richard Sherman has nearly a $15 million cap hit and Wilson likely have a bigger one. So they will have over $30 million of their cap (possibly over $35 to $40 million) tied to two players. Earl Thomas makes up another $9.9 million. So in 2016, a about a third of their cap will likely be tied to three players.

We need to see Seattle in a few years to see how they truly managed the cap.

That said, I think the Pats will be able to keep most of the defense together. I think they re-sign Revis unless someone offers him stupid money. I think they re-sign or franchise McCourty. Every other free agent is keepable. I think Ayers and Casillas will be deemed products of the system and come cheap. Siliga is an ERFA. Jones is a RFA. Both will be back for cheap. Branch is only going to get the veteran's minimum.

The one wild card will be Wilfork. He could decide to retire rather than take another pay cut (which the only way he will stay with the Pats).

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Good post. Only statement I question is Branch. Hes still very productive and it would not surprise me if a team out there that runs a similar system (HOU) would give him a 2 year deal.

Agree on VW. In order to stay here, he'll need to restructure/ accept a pay cut. Since 2004, he's made about $46m with the team. Clearly he is set for life. You wonder if making $3m (?) next year, winning and finishing his career here for posterity's sake and not uprooting his family is more important than going somewhere and making a little more than somewhere else.

robertweathers said:

You wonder if making $3m (?) next year, winning and finishing his career here for posterity's sake and not uprooting his family is more important than going somewhere and making a little more than somewhere else.

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Wilfork's words and actions have answered this many times. The answer is "no". Actually the answer to being asked to reduce his compensation to $3M would be likely be that the offer wouldn't even get a response.

The Revis deal will need to be made before free agency starts. The team owes Revis a $20M bonus or he's a free agent.

luuked said:

I really don't see anyone offering him crazy money that we won't be willing to match.

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mayoclinic said:

I think it's important not to let the Revis contract situation hold everything else up. If the Pats are seriously considering paying Revis $25M unless a new deal can be worked out, then they are stuck. But if you assume that they will either have a new deal or cut him, there's no reason they can't have McCourty, Ayers, Chung, Branch and Casillas all locked up.

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Agreed.

The only sticking point would be if the team is really willing to pay Revis the bonus in the hope that they can negotiate a long-term contract. Personally, I don't think hand Revis $20M will help negotiations. Either the team and Revis will come to terms before the off-season starts (with a cap savings of $10M-14M or Revis will go with a cap savings of $20M. In either case, all of the other five that can be re-signed should be; the money will be there.

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I would also note that Wilfork is due a $4.5M bonus on the first day of the off-season. I don't now whether the the team will not pay Wilfork $8M. In any case, the decision must be made before the season starts. Wilfork's contract is basically year-to year, $8M for 2015 and $6M for 2016. Even if the team is willing to pay, the contract can be restructured moving $3M into 2016.

mgteich said:

The Revis deal will need to be made before free agency starts. The team owes Revis a $20M bonus or he's a free agent.

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Come on.. do you seriously believe that there is no contact at all between his agents and other teams even before the legal tempering period ? There is no way his agent will not come back to the Pats to let them match a potential offer. There is no more attractive place for Revis to be if the money is right.

luuked said:

Come on.. do you seriously believe that there is no contact at all between his agents and other teams even before the legal tempering period ? There is no way his agent will not come back to the Pats to let them match a potential offer. There is no more attractive place for Revis to be if the money is right.

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Yes, there is tampering. That is not the same as full-blown free agency.

And BTW, there is no legal tampering period for Revis. Revis is under contract to the patriots through Spring 2016.

So, sure, Revis can have his agent say that he can get $16 AAV with $30M guaranteed somewhere else. I don't the patriots work that way. Belichick has his limits, which will be clearly communicated.

mgteich said:

Yes, there is tampering. That is not the same as full-blown free agency.

And BTW, there is no legal tampering period for Revis. Revis is under contract to the patriots through Spring 2016.

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I understand that. I just don't think that the talks between Revis Inc. and the Pats will happen in a vacuum. But it is somewhat pointless to discuss that. We will see in a few months anyway..

Just as a general observation. I think the whole concept of "keeping a team together" in the NFL is a flawed concept. The turnover (free agency, injury, cap casualties, age) means that, to stay on top, a team has to be constantly churning the roster -- and churning it by moving on from very good players.

I think Belichick has it right. Every year in the NFL is a new year, a new team. The fact that the Seahawks have signed players to extensions doesn't mean that the Seahawks will even make the playoffs in two years.

For example, can Wilson continue to run 750+ yards per season and not get injured? What happens if Marshawn Lynch's replacement doesn't have a "beast mode"?

hwc said:

Just as a general observation. I think the whole concept of "keeping a team together" in the NFL is a flawed concept. The turnover (free agency, injury, cap casualties, age) means that, to stay on top, a team has to be constantly churning the roster -- and churning it by moving on from very good players.

I think Belichick has it right. Every year in the NFL is a new year, a new team. The fact that the Seahawks have signed players to extensions doesn't mean that the Seahawks will even make the playoffs in two years.

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This is why people often use the term "window" for a period of time where a team has the right combination of players. I would assume that on average you can keep a well constructed unit together for maybe 2-3 years until the "turnover" will eat it the construction slowly away.

But yes I agree, however I wouldn't call it a flawed concept but rather a futile concept. There is simply no way to keep all parts together longer than that unless the salary cap goes away.

The circumstances of the CBA with reduced OTAs and all the restrictions on practice make roster consistency on the defense something very powerful if put in the right hands. If you can keep a dominant defense together for 2-3 years just imagine the huge jump you have on teams that have to re-install an entire setup in the offseason. And that gap is already big enough with "normal" coordinators but give BB & Patricia the right players and an offseason where they don't have to go back to square one and you can expect something truly great.

I am not sure how many people are aware that we are in the beginning of a 2-3 year stretch that could give us the very best Bill Belichick designed defense yet. We only need some contract extensions to work out and then just enjoy a hell of a ride.

This thread may be the answer to the question in the thread next-door, "Does Brady really play for $8m next year?"

Seems to me a combination of moves alluded to here are possible. It's also possible that Brady got okay money up-front and accepted that he'd be taking the infamous "home-town discount" on the back end, knowing that the rest of the team needed to go to the next level. Of course, this might simply be wishful fan thinking.

What Revis brings makes the rest of the defense better, while he shuts down any given receiver you put him on. His play indeed opens up the possibility of a D that makes things happen, rather than a reactive D that continually keeps everything in front of them (though that style still predominates, particularly when we're playing with a lead.) It's still not a constantly harassing defense, but it is a stout defense that does a good job of not giving up the big play - but it's added enough turnover creation and pressure to make it a very frustrating D to play against.

On the other hand, the bigger the name and the contract number, the more likely a player will have to restructure or go. Glad I'm not in those negotiations. Guys in the front office have to "think the unthinkable" about getting rid of the big names on an annual basis.

mgteich said:

Agreed.

The only sticking point would be if the team is really willing to pay Revis the bonus in the hope that they can negotiate a long-term contract. Personally, I don't think hand Revis $20M will help negotiations. Either the team and Revis will come to terms before the off-season starts (with a cap savings of $10M-14M or Revis will go with a cap savings of $20M. In either case, all of the other five that can be re-signed should be; the money will be there.

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Revis kind of has the team over a barrel if he wants to play hardball. He can effectively say "either give me the $20M you agreed to pay me to play in 2015, or cut me", knowing full well that he will have plenty of contract offers. Hopefully he wants to stay with the team and will be willing to listen to a fair long term contract offer (and he has been open about enjoying the experience and his teammates), but he doesn't have to.

mgteich said:

I would also note that Wilfork is due a $4.5M bonus on the first day of the off-season. I don't now whether the the team will not pay Wilfork $8M. In any case, the decision must be made before the season starts. Wilfork's contract is basically year-to year, $8M for 2015 and $6M for 2016. Even if the team is willing to pay, the contract can be restructured moving $3M into 2016.

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I think that the Wilfork and Mayo contracts are big issues to sort out. The Pats have $19M in 2015 cap hit tied up in those 2 guys, and that's crippling. Wilfork has been solid this year, but he's not the long term future of the defense, and the defense has shown that it can thrive without Mayo, even though his presence makes it better.

mayoclinic said:

Revis kind of has the team over a barrel if he wants to play hardball. He can effectively say "either give me the $20M you agreed to pay me to play in 2015, or cut me", knowing full well that he will have plenty of contract offers. Hopefully he wants to stay with the team and will be willing to listen to a fair long term contract offer (and he has been open about enjoying the experience and his teammates), but he doesn't have to.

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It is indeed that simple. Either the patriots give Revis a deal that he can't or doesn't want to refuse, or the team gives him $20M or Revis is a free agent. The team would have another shot in free agency. Most of think that if the team can't satisfy Revise before the season starts, then they won't be able to in free agency. That may not be true. Perhaps the team would give an offer that they think is competitive and Revis disagrees. Free agency can settle the difference in analysis.

mayoclinic said:

I think that the Wilfork and Mayo contracts are big issues to sort out. The Pats have $19M in 2015 cap hit tied up in those 2 guys, and that's crippling. Wilfork has been solid this year, but he's not the long term future of the defense, and the defense has shown that it can thrive without Mayo, even though his presence makes it better.

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Even if the team wants to pay these players their huge salaries, the contracts would be restructured for savings of about $7.5M. As Miguel notes, Mayo has a major part of his salary guaranteed for injury.

But yes, something needs to be done with both contracts. Obviously, we all want both of them back, but at what price.

IMHO, Wilfork will be paid. He will likely play for two years and retire. There is no replacing Wilfork, not even for $8M.

I suspect that the team will stick it to Mayo as soon as he can pass a physical. The last three years of his contract were fake years. Now the time has come to re-negotiate those years. Obviously, it would help the patriots to have Ayers and Casillas re-signed before negotiating with Mayo. However, the reality is that it is Hightower and Collins who have stepped up and are the defensive signal callers.

mgteich said:

It is indeed that simple. Either the patriots give Revis a deal that he can't or doesn't want to refuse, or the team gives him $20M or Revis is a free agent. The team would have another shot in free agency. Most of think that if the team can't satisfy Revise before the season starts, then they won't be able to in free agency. That may not be true. Perhaps the team would give an offer that they think is competitive and Revis disagrees. Free agency can settle the difference in analysis.

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The $20M 2015 deal is an albatross. As long as it's hovering in the air, it will influence negotiations heavily. Revis could probably collect his $20M this year and still get a big guaranteed payday in 2016. Once you cut Revis, it's off the table, and no longer a factor.

Personally, I would hope the Pats offer Revis a "fair" contract (at or above market value for the top CBs; I've suggested 4/$60M with $45M guaranteed, for an AAV of $15M/year), and if he doesn't accept it I think they should probably cut him and then try and compete with the market. I wouldn't ask Revis to take a "discount", but he has to want to be here. If the Pats work under that assumption, there's no reason they can't go ahead and lock up the other elements of the defense before free agency.

mayoclinic said:

The $20M 2015 deal is an albatross. As long as it's hovering in the air, it will influence negotiations heavily. Once you cut Revis, it's off the table, and no longer a factor.

Personally, I would hope the Pats offer Revis a "fair" contract (at or above market value for the top CBs; I've suggested 4/$60M with $45M guaranteed, for an AAV of $15M/year), and if he doesn't accept it I think they should probably cut him and then try and compete with the market. I wouldn't ask Revis to take a "discount", but he has to want to be here. If the Pats work under that assumption, there's no reason they can't go ahead and lock up the other elements of the defense before free agency.

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Agreed.

However, I would note that if this is the patriots position (very reasonable IMHO opinion), then negotiations with the other players can proceed on a parallel path. After all, either Revis will be signed before the new season starts with a cap savings of $13M or his option will not be paid for a cap savings of $20M.

IMHO, no contract should be affected by the decision regarding Revis, unless McCourty would be more willing to sign if Revis stays.

mgteich said:

Agreed.

However, I would note that if this is the patriots position (very reasonable IMHO opinion), then negotiations with the other players can proceed on a parallel path. After all, either Revis will be signed before the new season starts with a cap savings of $13M or his option will not be paid for a cap savings of $20M.

IMHO, no contract should be affected by the decision regarding Revis, unless McCourty would be more willing to sign if Revis stays.

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The other way of looking at it is Revis vs. Mayo + Wilfork. The Pats can cut both and save $12M in cap space. That would allow them to keep Revis at $20M and still re-sign all their other targets. But keeping Revis at $20M (plus a $5M carryover), Mayo at $10.6M and Wilfork at $8.4M cripples the team. That's $44M in 2015 cap space for 3 guys who aren't a QB. I don't think there's many teams that have $44M in cap space tied up on 3 players even including their QB, and certainly not on 3 non-QB players.

It seems to me that both the Patriots and Revis would be motivated to do a longer term deal. It's obvious from the Pats's perspective, but Revis will be 30 years old at the start of next season. If he were to play for a one year deal at $20 million, he'd be a free agent at age 31. Now is his best time maximum leverage to do a long term deal with guaranteed money.

Ty Law apparently said recently that $15 million average per year would do it. Whether he was speaking for Revis or not, the parameters have been pretty well established by the Sherman deal. I honestly don't think it's going to be that hard for the Pats and Revis to get a deal done. I'm thinking something in the 4 year $60 million to 6 year $90 million range. The key will be a structure that protects the Pats after three years should Revis decline after age 32.

I think from a performance standpoint, the Pats should be confident for three more seasons, even if Revis loses a step. He's pretty wiley.

I don't think they have any concerns about work ethic, leadership, etc.

hwc said:

It seems to me that both the Patriots and Revis would be motivated to do a longer term deal. It's obvious from the Pats's perspective, but Revis will be 30 years old at the start of next season. If he were to play for a one year deal at $20 million, he'd be a free agent at age 31. Now is his best time maximum leverage to do a long term deal with guaranteed money.

Ty Law apparently said recently that $15 million average per year would do it. Whether he was speaking for Revis or not, the parameters have been pretty well established by the Sherman deal. I honestly don't think it's going to be that hard for the Pats and Revis to get a deal done. I'm thinking something in the 4 year $60 million to 6 year $90 million range. The key will be a structure that protects the Pats after three years should Revis decline after age 32.

I think from a performance standpoint, the Pats should be confident for three more seasons, even if Revis loses a step. He's pretty wiley.

I don't think they have any concerns about work ethic, leadership, etc.

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I agree that a deal with a $15M AAV that essentially guarantees 3 years ($45M) is reasonable. What comes after that is "funny money". Whether Revis would take it is another matter. I'm not quite as optimistic as you, but if he doesn't then I think the team has to decide whether to keep him at $20M this year or let him hit FA.