Keeping the Defense Together

Like many on this board, I've been elated by the progress shown by the defense this year. Even with Mayo out, Jones and Siliga missing large parts of the season, and Easley hobbled, the defense has been the most dominant that we've seen since 2003. The additions of Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner have led to one of the top 3 secondaries in the NFL, and have opened up a myriad of opportunities up front. Dont'a Hightower and Jamie Collins have emerged as Pro Bowl caliber playmakers, and Vince Wilfork has been remarkably solid returning from his 2013 Achilles' rupture. Pat Chung has been a pleasant surprise in his return tour of duty. The mid-season additions of Akeem Ayers, Jonathan Casillas and Alan Branch have added critical depth and improved versatility, and the return of Jones and Siliga looks to prime the defense for a deep playoff run. It's not perfect, but it's in a whole different league from what we've seen in the past.

For 2015 there are big questions. Devin McCourty, Ayers, Casillas, Branch and Pat Chung are all FAs. Darrelle Revis is under contract, but with a crippling $25M cap hit. Hightower and Jones have 5th year options for 2016 but their cap hit takes a big jump, and they will be FAs in 2017 at the latest, along with Jamie Collins.

The standard for the top defense in the NFL has been the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks have just signed their 2 pending 2015 defensive FAs to 4 year deals: 4 years/$27M for SAM LB KJ Wright, and 4 years/$28.5M for RDE :

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...awks-sign-cliff-avril-to-4year-285m-extension

In the past 10 months they have re-signed DE Michael Bennett (4 years/$28.5M, $16M guaranteed; roughly the same as Avril), S Earl Thomas (4 years/$40M, $25.725M guaranteed) and CB Richard Sherman (4 years/$56M, $40M guaranteed). NT Brandon Mebane is signed through 2015, and S Kam Chancellor through 2017. Only MLB Bobby Wagner remains as a pending big signing on defense. Bruce Irvin, Jordan Hill, Tharold Simon and Byron Maxwell are all emerging key contributors on their rookie deals, and there is a nice pipeline of young talent such as Kevin Pierre-Louis . As ESPN's Gregg Rosenthal notes:

It's incredible to look at the Seahawks' defenders who are now signed long-term. Carroll and general manager John Schneider have inked long-term deals with Wright, Avril, Bennett, Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, and Earl Thomas. It is difficult to keep great defenses together, but this group has a chance -- a chance -- to go down as one of the all-time great units.

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Seattle had $33M in 2015 cap space available prior to the Wright and Avril re-signings, according to overthecap.com. The Pats look to have a much tighter 2015 cap situation. I've suggested elsewhere a "zero sum" approach to retaining all of the key players on defense. Clearly, extending Revis and McCourty is key. The situations with Jerod Mayo and Vince Wilfork potentially need to be addressed as well. I applaud the Seattle FO's pro-active stance in locking up their key guys, and I hope the Pats follow suit soon.

The Pats have done a brilliant job building the defense. Now they have to figure out how to keep it together. Pete Carroll and John Schneider clearly recognize the value of continuity. With more time together, the Pats' defense could potentially be on the same level.

I presume this is the advantage , in part, of having a QB on a rookie contract which I hope isn't something we'll be replicating for the next decade and a half.

manxman2601 said:

I presume this is the advantage , in part, of having a QB on a rookie contract which I hope isn't something we'll be replicating for the next decade and a half.

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No, I don't think you can ascribe it to that. Russell Wilson's contract will need to be addressed in 2015 (he will be in the last year of his rookie deal), and the FO has to be planning for that in their 2015 cap calculations. It may be a somewhat backloaded deal that keep's his 2015 cap hit down, but it won't be trivial. There are other significant cap issues on offense, including Marshawn Lynch's situation. I think that the Seattle brass have decided that their team is built around their defense, and they have taken steps to make sure that the core is intact for the next 3-4 years.

So paying Wilson hundreds of thousands rather than 10-20 million has no effect? Let's wait and see how together their defense is once Russell Wilson gets one of the bigger contracts in the NFL.

Good stuff mayo. This defense has been pretty special, especially after the last several years when you never knew what you were going to get out of the secondary. All three levels of the defense have improved.

Quick stat fact-we are only a field goal allowed per game away from having the fewest points per game allowed in the NFL (we allow 20 per game, Detroit is allowing 17 per). That's pretty damn remarkable after the gauntlet of offenses we've faced.

manxman2601 said:

So paying Wilson hundreds of thousands rather than 10-20 million has no effect? Let's wait and see how together their defense is once Russell Wilson gets one of the bigger contracts in the NFL.

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What makes you think that Wilson is going to end up with a 2015 cap hit of "hundreds of thousands"? Or that a Wilson contract would affect "how together their defense is"? I fully expect Wilson to get an extension that bumps his 2015 cap hit up considerably, but I don't see how it will affect the fact that they already have Sherman, Thomas Chancellor and Bennett signed through 2017 and Avril and Wright through 2018.

@mayoclinic

Sorry Mayo but I didn't mean to sound so harsh. Let's just say I wanted to prick your Seahawks idolatry a tad.

The truth is, the Seahawks are a good team to borrow and learn from as BB clearly has and Schneider/ Carroll is probably the best GM/HC combination in the NFL (unless you count the left and right hemispheres of BBs brain). But they're not without flaws. They had to sacrifice a first rounder for Harvin just to try and inject something into their offense in Harvin and they'll likely be sacrificing their best offensive player this coming off-season in Lynch and whilst I'm not at all familiar with the contracts they've signed, I'd be surprised if there were no future year pains built in.

manxman2601 said:

@mayoclinic

Sorry Mayo but I didn't mean to sound so harsh. Let's just say I wanted to prick your Seahawks idolatry a tad.

The truth is, the Seahawks are a good team to borrow and learn from as BB clearly has and Schneider/ Carroll is probably the best GM/HC combination in the NFL (unless you count the left and right hemispheres of BBs brain). But they're not without flaws. They had to sacrifice a first rounder for Harvin just to try and inject something into their offense in Harvin and they'll likely be sacrificing their best offensive player this coming off-season in Lynch and whilst I'm not at all familiar with the contracts they've signed, I'd be surprised if there were no future year pains built in.

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Fair enough. The Seahawks have certainly made mistakes, more on offense than on defense. I didn't mean to imply otherwise. In this case, I laud them for locking up their key defensive players aggressively, something I'd like to see the Pats do.

The Seahawks have also benefitted from creating a winning culture that players want to be a part of, something that the Pats have done for a long time. Both the Bennett and Avril deals were probably a bit below market - an AAV of $7M/year for 2 very good DEs in their prime isn't shabby, but it could be a lot more. They've had some luck, and some good breaks. I think they have decided that the defense and Russell Wilson are the priorities, and that everything else is negotiable. I think they learned their lesson the hard way from the Percy Harvin fiasco that overspending on offensive "skill" players doesn't necessarily improve the team, or even the offense.

I also think that "chemistry" is important. The pieces have to work well together, and when you get that, continuity is key. Percy Harvin upgraded Seattle's talent on offense, but not the chemistry of the overall offense. The defense works well together, and Seattle has weathered some injuries and key losses to get back on track defensively, so now they're moving to lock it in place. The Pats have a defense that has been a long time building, and I also think it would be prudent to lock the key pieces in place sooner rather than later if at all possible.

I believe it IS possible for the Pats to keep the defense together, and that the talent on defense is as good or better than that in Seattle. But it will take some work, and I'd like to see signs of the FO being proactive about it. I'm a bit disappointed that McCourty hasn't been extended, or that we haven't heard more about activity on the Revis front. I'll be disappointed if this defense breaks apart considerably next year, after all the work that it's taken to get to this point.

mayoclinic said:

Fair enough. The Seahawks have certainly made mistakes, more on offense than on defense. I didn't mean to imply otherwise. In this case, I laud them for locking up their key defensive players aggressively, something I'd like to see the Pats do.

The Seahawks have also benefitted from creating a winning culture that players want to be a part of, something that the Pats have done for a long time. Both the Bennett and Avril deals were probably a bit below market - an AAV of $7M/year for 2 very good DEs in their prime isn't shabby, but it could be a lot more. They've had some luck, and some good breaks. I think they have decided that the defense and Russell Wilson are the priorities, and that everything else is negotiable. I think they learned their lesson the hard way from the Percy Harvin fiasco that overspending on offensive "skill" players doesn't necessarily improve the team, or even the offense.

I also think that "chemistry" is important. The pieces have to work well together, and when you get that, continuity is key. Percy Harvin upgraded Seattle's talent on offense, but not the chemistry of the overall offense. The defense works well together, and Seattle has weathered some injuries and key losses to get back on track defensively, so now they're moving to lock it in place. The Pats have a defense that has been a long time building, and I also think it would be prudent to lock the key pieces in place sooner rather than later if at all possible.

I believe it IS possible for the Pats to keep the defense together, and that the talent on defense is as good or better than that in Seattle. But it will take some work, and I'd like to see signs of the FO being proactive about it. I'm a bit disappointed that McCourty hasn't been extended, or that we haven't heard more about activity on the Revis front. I'll be disappointed if this defense breaks apart considerably next year, after all the work that it's taken to get to this point.

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My point really is that success shouldn't be determined by how aggressive they are on re-signing their players but on what kind of team they have in two, three or four years time. No point signing those players to those contracts if they're losing games 6-3 in 2017. Not saying that will happen and if Schneider/Carroll make it work then hats off to them but history isn't necessarily on their side. There is only one team with a long track record of success, my hope is that the formula that created that success isn't altered too much.

manxman2601 said:

My point really is that success shouldn't be determined by how aggressive they are on re-signing their players but on what kind of team they have in two, three or four years time. No point signing those players to those contracts if they're losing games 6-3 in 2017. Not saying that will happen and if Schneider/Carroll make it work then hats off to them but history isn't necessarily on their side. There is only one team with a long track record of success, my hope is that the formula that created that success isn't altered too much.

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So far Seattle has come the closest to replicating the Pats' success of any other team, IMO. They've been to the playoffs 3 consecutive years since putting the core of their team together, they've already won a SB, and they look like one of the top 2-3 favorites for another one. No team has repeated since the 2003-2004 Pats, or even gone to back-to-back SBs since that time. Obviously the kind of sustained success the Pats have had is even more rare, but so far Seattle seems to know what they're doing. Whether they meet your standard is something we won't know for a few years.

At any rate, my point with this thread wasn't to laud Seattle, but to focus on the Pats. I personally believe that the way to build a successful playoff team is:

1. Get a winning QB. By far the most important position in football.
2. Build a playoff-caliber defense. Keep your team in the game, so that your winning QB has a chance to win.
3. Invest in the OL. Protect your winning QB, so that he can do his think.
4. Get an adequate supply of offensive "skill" players. I don't think these have to be "elite", as the 2001, 2003 and 2004 SB teams proved, and many other SB winning teams since.

For me, the priorities right now to maximize the chances of winning more SBs with Brady should be to retain the core of the defense intact, and to continue to invest in the OL.

Extending Revis and re-working Mayo's deal probably can save you about 12m. That should be enough for McCourty, Chung and Casillas. Would love to keep Branch and Ayers. Can prob replace them in the draft. You'd have Mayo and Casillas to use at lb. Allows you to use Hightower or Collins off the edge a little more. I know I'm in the minority here. But, I'd let VW go. Keep all of the other guys.

patsfaninpa said:

Extending Revis and re-working Mayo's deal probably can save you about 12m. That should be enough for McCourty, Chung and Casillas. Would love to keep Branch and Ayers. Can prob replace them in the draft. You'd have Mayo and Casillas to use at lb. Allows you to use Hightower or Collins off the edge a little more. I know I'm in the minority here. But, I'd let VW go. Keep all of the other guys.

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A new contract for Revis would save about $13M (even at $16 AAV). We will also likely extend or restructure at least one of Wilfork and Mayo. Actually, one restructure and one extension seems likely (this is another $7M). And Arrington extension would add $1M. IMHO, this $21M much more enough to re-sign McCourty, Ayers, Casillas, Branch and Chung.

Of course, any of these players might choose to test free agency, rather than accept the deal from the patriots (any of these 5 free agents, plus Revis, Wilfork and Mayo). We are in good shape cap-wise on defense. This issue is negotiations.

mayoclinic said:

I believe it IS possible for the Pats to keep the defense together, and that the talent on defense is as good or better than that in Seattle. But it will take some work, and I'd like to see signs of the FO being proactive about it. I'm a bit disappointed that McCourty hasn't been extended, or that we haven't heard more about activity on the Revis front. I'll be disappointed if this defense breaks apart considerably next year, after all the work that it's taken to get to this point.

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I remember reading somewhere that Revis has tabled any negotiations until the offseason (which, under the circumstances in which he signed, seems perfectly reasonable).

I think Pete Carrolls age is something ppl have to remmeber also, He is the oldest Coach in the League and wont be around for "another" generation chance. HE basicly going all out with what he got now, Locks them up to they are 31-32, and probably leaves the team with the players. Another thing people have to remmeber is "Gronk". Patriots have a 8mill contract locked up with him, and there isnt a player on Seahawks D i would chance Gronk with, NO ONE! In 1-2 Year you gonna see a old Seahawks D and Young O - Since draft picks going to O and $ to D.

ctpatsfan77 said:

I remember reading somewhere that Revis has tabled any negotiations until the offseason (which, under the circumstances in which he signed, seems perfectly reasonable).

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I think it's important not to let the Revis contract situation hold everything else up. If the Pats are seriously considering paying Revis $25M unless a new deal can be worked out, then they are stuck. But if you assume that they will either have a new deal or cut him, there's no reason they can't have McCourty, Ayers, Chung, Branch and Casillas all locked up.

mayoclinic said:

No, I don't think you can ascribe it to that. Russell Wilson's contract will need to be addressed in 2015 (he will be in the last year of his rookie deal), and the FO has to be planning for that in their 2015 cap calculations. It may be a somewhat backloaded deal that keep's his 2015 cap hit down, but it won't be trivial. There are other significant cap issues on offense, including Marshawn Lynch's situation. I think that the Seattle brass have decided that their team is built around their defense, and they have taken steps to make sure that the core is intact for the next 3-4 years.

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This is true moving forward, but since most of the defenders were locked up when the QB was dirt cheap, it absolutely had a serious impact. You can't just look forward when you are benefiting from the past.

I'd love to keep the defense together and, if that's what NE wants, it shouldn't be that difficult financially. Mayo will restructure or be gone, Revis will be retained or be gone, Amendola will take a cut or be gone, so that is $17mm of cap savings, minimum.

Other than potentially some contained in-house frustration by Devin or Darrelle, the biggest stumbling block will be guys like Ayers and Branch playing themselves out of NE's pay range.

mayoclinic said:

I think it's important not to let the Revis contract situation hold everything else up. If the Pats are seriously considering paying Revis $25M unless a new deal can be worked out, then they are stuck. But if you assume that they will either have a new deal or cut him, there's no reason they can't have McCourty, Ayers, Chung, Branch and Casillas all locked up.

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I doubt that the Revis negotiation will hold up anything. There is no reason not to negotiate in parallel with all involved players. Especially because the team has made it a point in the last few years to always operate with a buffer throughout the season anyway.

I really think that the main sticking point (if any) will be the length of the contract for a 30 year old CB.

I really don't see anyone offering him crazy money that we won't be willing to match. The only exception to this is if Rex lands with a contender that has enough cap space to go a bit crazy on Revis (Atlanta ?). But would anyone offer him a considerably bigger contract than Peterson/Sherman have ? I doubt that.

patsfaninpa said:

Extending Revis and re-working Mayo's deal probably can save you about 12m. That should be enough for McCourty, Chung and Casillas. Would love to keep Branch and Ayers. Can prob replace them in the draft. You'd have Mayo and Casillas to use at lb. Allows you to use Hightower or Collins off the edge a little more. I know I'm in the minority here. But, I'd let VW go. Keep all of the other guys.

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Keep the core...Hightower, Jones, Collins, Mccourty, and Revis. I also really want Ninko on this team for a while. Just love his playing style. Not the best..but seems consistent. (obviously with 8 sacks in each of the last 3 years.

I want to see how Mayo comes back from his injury next year and if he's the same players because I love him. Wilfork is getting up there in age and he is the core..i just wonder how much longer he players compared to the guys I listed

I still think the Seahawks are a bad comparison. They had a lot of young players playing on their rookie deals last year and they still haven't given Russell Wilson a deal. In 2016, Richard Sherman has nearly a $15 million cap hit and Wilson likely have a bigger one. So they will have over $30 million of their cap (possibly over $35 to $40 million) tied to two players. Earl Thomas makes up another $9.9 million. So in 2016, a about a third of their cap will likely be tied to three players.

We need to see Seattle in a few years to see how they truly managed the cap.

That said, I think the Pats will be able to keep most of the defense together. I think they re-sign Revis unless someone offers him stupid money. I think they re-sign or franchise McCourty. Every other free agent is keepable. I think Ayers and Casillas will be deemed products of the system and come cheap. Siliga is an ERFA. Jones is a RFA. Both will be back for cheap. Branch is only going to get the veteran's minimum.

The one wild card will be Wilfork. He could decide to retire rather than take another pay cut (which the only way he will stay with the Pats).