What is the biggest obstacle to SB win #4 for the Pats?

Archeryaddict12 said:

Why wouldn't it? If he excels at what he does now, why can't he take on a little more? Your argument makes no sense. If he succeeds at what he does now, why can't he succeed with a larger role? If anything he has shown he can take on more

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Because players skillset are sometimes limited and they can do well in some situations and not others.
I would assume if he had the skillset to do well in a larger role, the Patriots coaching staff would use him in one.
As it is, his role is decreasing, he has one catch in the last 3 weeks.
It would seem that in a few games they found mismatches for him to exploit (they were also blowouts and I don't recall how much was garbage time) but aside from those 3 games, his production for the season, in 11 games is 7 catches for 50 yards.
He seems to me like the kind of player that does not get open very well, but does the right thing and can make the catch when the defense forgets about him.
What do you see different than that?

#1 Injuries
#2 Seattle

I think Seattle is the only team right now with a good chance to beat the Pats on a neutral field.

Denver needs to play here.

GB on a neutral field probably won't hold the Pats to 21 Points again. They just aren't that good on D consistency.

I COULD see Seattle hold the Pats O to under 20 and force a To or 2 while doing it. I am not saying it will happen but it is possible. If those TOs turn into 7-10 points then you are asking the D to hold them to under 10. That is a lot to ask no matter who you are playing.

# 1 Offensive line, Offensive line, Offensive line
# 2 Seahawks
Everyone on offensive line except Vollmer is clearly suspect. I can easily envisage a scenario where the offensive line capitulates during the playoffs otherwise i have confidence in everything else. Seattle will be a tough out for us.

Injuries

They have as good a chance as any team. But when you get deep in the playoffs, the difference in talent is slim. Matchups, weather, referee calls, injuries, bounces, game planning, play calling, or freak things like a player falling down, or a helmet catch, or just making an important, low percentage play at a key time are all factors that can make a difference.
The best team isn't the one most likely to win, its the one that gets the job done when getting the job done matters most. This team has many positives that can overcome some negative occurrences from the list above, probably more than any team, but you have to play it out.
If you could replay the post-season, the result the second time around probably wouldn't be the same as the first more often than not.

Why are Patriots fans so concerned with Seattle? Regaurdless of who makes the super bowl from the NFC, if the Patriots play well enough to get there, it will likely be the hardest game of the year.

If we want to talk about Seattle though, I'll play along. There defense is legitimate and there's nothing to nitpick there, other than I highly doubt they can stop Brady from connecting with Bobby Gronk for 60 minutes. There offense on the other hand is a total gimmick. If we can keep Wilson in the pocket and contain Lynch, there offense is null and void. I'm not disrespecting them, they're a good club, but I'd rather play them than Green Bay all day.

New England Pride said:

Why are Patriots fans so concerned with Seattle? .........................

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Because they are skilled, fast, and physical. More so, IMHO, than any other team in the league, including the Pats. A game against the seahawks will be successful only if Belichick brings a great plan and the Pats execute to perfection...assuming the seahawks play to their capability.

The biggest obstacle to winning the Superbowl is Rex Ryan and the Jets. No matter how lousy the Jets
are, they are going to give the Patriots a battle. I pick the Jets to gain 350 yards on the ground and win
18 to 10. This will cause the Patriots to lose HFA and lose the AFC Game at Denver.

phil112 said:

Because they are skilled, fast, and physical. More so, IMHO, than any other team in the league, including the Pats. A game against the seahawks will be successful only if Belichick brings a great plan and the Pats execute to perfection...assuming the seahawks play to their capability.

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I agree with all of that but I just don't see how they are so much better than Green Bay. And what the hell is all that speed gonna do when the baby bull Gronkowski is charging down the seam in his first healthy super bowl? I think the Hawks should be more worried about New England than New England should be worried about the hawks on a neutral field. Great D with a gimmick offense. Just my take.

New England Pride said:

Why are Patriots fans so concerned with Seattle? Regaurdless of who makes the super bowl from the NFC, if the Patriots play well enough to get there, it will likely be the hardest game of the year.

If we want to talk about Seattle though, I'll play along. There defense is legitimate and there's nothing to nitpick there, other than I highly doubt they can stop Brady from connecting with Bobby Gronk for 60 minutes. There offense on the other hand is a total gimmick. If we can keep Wilson in the pocket and contain Lynch, there offense is null and void. I'm not disrespecting them, they're a good club, but I'd rather play them than Green Bay all day.

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I wouldn't call their offense a gimmick at all, they're actually very methodical and can slowly break down defenses.

Stopping Wilson is no easy task, his natural instincts are spectacular. He's the definition of a playmaker, but if you look at his stats you'd probably just shrug your shoulders. When he's on the field, he wears down defenses and makes big plays, exactly what you want your QB to do. And Marshawn Lynch runs like no other back I've seen since Jerome Bettis. He too wears down defenses methodically.

But, Seattle is pretty bad against tight ends. Except against them Gronk would be better used as a decoy, its the tight ends who are the 3rd or 4th option who they can't cover because their outside linebackers aren't as good at covering the pass. For Gronk they'd probably shadow him with a specific player all game. Last year they did shut down Jimmy Graham in two games against New Orleans.

They will overcome any obstacle. The Pats won in '03 and '04 with the worst punter in pro football. That is no longer the case. (They also do not have to deal with kickoffs to opponents that are caught at the seven yard line and run back to the 33.)

AndyJohnson said:

Because players skillset are sometimes limited and they can do well in some situations and not others.
I would assume if he had the skillset to do well in a larger role, the Patriots coaching staff would use him in one.
As it is, his role is decreasing, he has one catch in the last 3 weeks.
It would seem that in a few games they found mismatches for him to exploit (they were also blowouts and I don't recall how much was garbage time) but aside from those 3 games, his production for the season, in 11 games is 7 catches for 50 yards.
He seems to me like the kind of player that does not get open very well, but does the right thing and can make the catch when the defense forgets about him.
What do you see different than that?

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54 catches his rookie year as well. He must've gotten open on some of them as opposed to the D just forgetting about him.

We've seen these Pats win with pretty significant injuries on D. If they can find a way when/if they lose any of the three biggest receiving threats (Gronk, Edelmensch, LaFell,) nothing can stop them (especially thinking of Gronk).

Really good signs this year - especially 2nd half intensity. It makes you think they have the resilience they need at the next level.

Of course, in the playoffs, playing "out of character" for one week does you in. So as always - we'll see.

supafly said:

I've got to agree with @Oswlek. I think if it somehow came down to playing DAL, many of us would be more than happy. Unfortunately, the chances of that happening aren't too good.

I honestly don't think DAL even gets in, and it's going to crush my poor wife (longtime fan)--which means I also will have to deal with the nonsense.

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Something about them this year feels different, beside the fact that they only lose at home. I'd be more confident of the Cowboys if Murray was playing against Indy, but I still think they'll win. I like your wife's chances.

mosey threetupu said:

54 catches his rookie year as well. He must've gotten open on some of them as opposed to the D just forgetting about him.

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Who knows? He was in a pathetic offense. I can only go by what I see and what a good coaching staff sees.

AndyJohnson said:

He's also been beaten 100 or so times.

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That's where the rest of my comment would come into play, as I think their secondary as a whole is pathetic, but Moore has done relatively well there--as I've watched every one of their games this year.

I don't disagree that he's given up plays as well, but his presence has certainly benefited them. I think they are relatively pleased with the acquisition, and as worthless as PFF is, they had him as the 3rd highest graded CB (in a reserve role) about 6 games into the season, and currently have him next to SEA CB Byron Maxwell hovering just outside the top 10. Since I don't agree with their metrics it's hard for me to take that kind of analysis seriously, but the bottom line is that he's played fairly well there.

I'm not claiming that he's necessarily "good," but I think he's been a nice contributor there, and that's what I was pointing out in my post that you quoted.

1960Pats said:

Something about them this year feels different, beside the fact that they only lose at home. I'd be more confident of the Cowboys if Murray was playing against Indy, but I still think they'll win. I like your wife's chances.

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Honestly, I hope you're right. I've felt bad having to watch her witness a last game collapse in the past few years with a chance at the postseason.

As far as the chances vs. Indy, I just don't see it, but I definitely hope that I'm wrong.

The Brandon Five said:

Fair enough. He is no Darrelle Revis.

Revis >>> Moore

Browner > Arrington (on the outside)

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I'm just pointing out the fact that he's been a contributor there, not necessarily disagreeing with your assessment of the piss poor quality of the 2011 secondary--that's for sure.

Injuries
Injuries
Crowbar to Brady's knee
SeaChickens
That my patriots flag I put up in my house after the Chefs loss does not move. (my cat knows it is straight to the wood chipper if touched)

I just hope the Pats offense shows up. As a number of people have already said, most of the Pats losses (outside of 2006) have all been because the offense did not show up. This was true in 2007, 2009, 2010. 2012 and 2013.