Bedard Q & A :Gronk or Revis, Broncos power running team ?

http://mmqb.si.com/2014/12/18/denver-broncos-running-game-patriots-mvp-gronk-revis/

FWIW

As Bedard states in the article, improving a pass/run ratio balance for Denver that was way too one-dimensional at 62/38 throughout their first 10 games is a good idea. They are currently 44/56 in the past few games, and one can safely assume that it's probably to help prepare for the colder weather/postseason. Bottom line = the run is working and they've actually discovered a pretty decent RB with C.J. Anderson.

If we were doing that like the end of last year, many would be lauding the "good idea" to start practicing a ground and pound approach in case the passing game wasn't working, and/or to help take advantage of specific gameplanning matchups in the playoffs. Since the hated Broncos are the ones doing it, the popular talk is that Manning must be tanking it....I'm guessing that he can still sling the ball pretty well with the weapons that he has, and that they'll (unfortunately) be quite a tough out in January.

I hope I'm very, very wrong--and that Manning is beginning to suck as some have suggested, but color me quite skeptical. As a Pats fan I'd love to see him struggle and tank it again in the postseason.

supafly said:

As Bedard states in the article, improving a pass/run ratio balance for Denver that was way too one-dimensional at 62/38 throughout their first 10 games is a good idea. They are currently 44/56 in the past few games, and one can safely assume that it's probably to help prepare for the colder weather/postseason. Bottom line = the run is working and they've actually discovered a pretty decent RB with C.J. Anderson.

If we were doing that like the end of last year, many would be lauding the "good idea" to start practicing a ground and pound approach in case the passing game wasn't working, and/or to help take advantage of specific gameplanning matchups in the playoffs. Since the hated Broncos are the ones doing it, the popular talk is that Manning must be tanking it....I'm guessing that he can still sling the ball pretty well with the weapons that he has, and that they'll (unfortunately) be quite a tough out in January.

I hope I'm very, very wrong--and that Manning is beginning to suck as some have suggested, but color me quite skeptical. As a Pats fan I'd love to see him struggle and tank it again in the postseason.

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He's already tanked the end of my fantasy season. Though I suppose if I didn't want to be in first place all year then lose in my first playoff game, I wouldn't have drafted Manning in the first place. I got what I deserved.

supafly said:

As Bedard states in the article, improving a pass/run ratio balance for Denver that was way too one-dimensional at 62/38 throughout their first 10 games is a good idea. They are currently 44/56 in the past few games, and one can safely assume that it's probably to help prepare for the colder weather/postseason. Bottom line = the run is working and they've actually discovered a pretty decent RB with C.J. Anderson.

If we were doing that like the end of last year, many would be lauding the "good idea" to start practicing a ground and pound approach in case the passing game wasn't working, and/or to help take advantage of specific gameplanning matchups in the playoffs. Since the hated Broncos are the ones doing it, the popular talk is that Manning must be tanking it....I'm guessing that he can still sling the ball pretty well with the weapons that he has, and that they'll (unfortunately) be quite a tough out in January.

I hope I'm very, very wrong--and that Manning is beginning to suck as some have suggested, but color me quite skeptical. As a Pats fan I'd love to see him struggle and tank it again in the postseason.

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I don't know how you can be skeptical about Manning declining. I will say this. If the Broncos would have continued to pass at the same rate, Emmanuel Sanders would be dead right now. Not figuratively, but literally. I mean the first NFL player to die on the field. And it could still happen. Manning's passes float so much that Sanders (more than any other player because he is fastand small) is left open to get creamed. Sanders almost got killed twice in the last 6 weeks because of floaters that left him hanging out to dry and one of the floaters was a six yard pass.

But the balanced offense isn't why the Broncos are winning, it is more their defense that is doing it. Their offense has not been all that effective. Here are some facts:

• The Broncos offense only scored over 30 points once since switching to the new offensive balance. And that was a game where they had a drive start on the Dolphins' 8 yard line and the game turned into a shootout.
• Against KC, the defense gave the Broncos' offense the ball on the KC side of the field four times and the offense scored 13 points off those short fields.
• The last three games, they have held their opponents to 17, 16, and 10 points.
• Against Buffalo, the Broncos didn't actually run that well. The Bills held CJ Anderson to 2.8 YPC. The rushing stats are skewed because Juwan Thompson had one run for 47 yards. You take away that one carry and the Broncos rushed 27 times for 87 yards and 3.1 YPC.
• Manning in the second half of the Chief's game game completed something like 4 of 18 passes I think.
• Manning in the Buffalo game threw two picks and no TDs on 20 attempts.

I think this is a good thing for the Broncos to do to be more balanced, but I am convinced they had to do it out of necessity. I don't know if Manning is injured or he is on the decline, but he clearly isn't right. His arms strength, even for him, is horrible.

I still wonder if their running game is effective because CJ Anderson is so good and the o-line is doing well or teams are just too afraid to play the run and risk Manning killing them. The Bills had a lot of success stopping their running game, but their offense couldn't do anything. It will be interesting in the playoffs if they face a team that will respect the run and force the Broncos to beat them in the air.

And BTW, the reason why the Pats became run heavy last year was a similar reason the Broncos are doing it now - out of necessity. Gronk was gone and Brady had no receivers other than Edelman (Dobson was injured and no one else was producing) and the Pats were forced to become run heavy. And that was a big reason why the Pats lost in the AFC Championship game because they ended up facing a high powered offense who could stop the Pats' running game. I think the Broncos may be destined for a similar fate.

supafly said:

As Bedard states in the article, improving a pass/run ratio balance for Denver that was way too one-dimensional at 62/38 throughout their first 10 games is a good idea. They are currently 44/56 in the past few games, and one can safely assume that it's probably to help prepare for the colder weather/postseason. Bottom line = the run is working and they've actually discovered a pretty decent RB with C.J. Anderson.

If we were doing that like the end of last year, many would be lauding the "good idea" to start practicing a ground and pound approach in case the passing game wasn't working, and/or to help take advantage of specific gameplanning matchups in the playoffs. Since the hated Broncos are the ones doing it, the popular talk is that Manning must be tanking it....I'm guessing that he can still sling the ball pretty well with the weapons that he has, and that they'll (unfortunately) be quite a tough out in January.

I hope I'm very, very wrong--and that Manning is beginning to suck as some have suggested, but color me quite skeptical. As a Pats fan I'd love to see him struggle and tank it again in the postseason.

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The Patriots leaned heavily on that run game in 2013 because their interior OL wasn't doing the job in pass protection and because they had, probably, the worst WR corps in the league. The Broncos are doing it because Manning's arm strength is wavering badly.

KontradictioN said:

The Patriots leaned heavily on that run game in 2013 because their interior OL wasn't doing the job in pass protection and because they had, probably, the worst WR corps in the league. The Broncos are doing it because Manning's arm strength is wavering badly.

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Exactly. People are praising Fox and Manning for coming up with this brilliant game plan to make them playoff ready, but I think it was Fox's only option at this point and he was just luck that Anderson is running so well.

Not to sounds like a homer, but the Broncos are in trouble. There is clearly something nagging at Manning to the point he has lost MPH on his throws. With that said (and because he doesn't throw a great spiral to begin with), in a stadium where it's open-air and the wind whips around and January, that does not bode well for his ability to make tough throws.

In terms of their running game, churning out 200+ yards vs MIA and KC was impressive. However, their output vs BUF and SD was a bit more representative of how good it is- which is average.

robertweathers said:

Not to sounds like a homer, but the Broncos are in trouble. There is clearly something nagging at Manning to the point he has lost MPH on his throws. With that said (and because he doesn't throw a great spiral to begin with), in a stadium where it's open-air and the wind whips around and January, that does not bode well for his ability to make tough throws.

In terms of their running game, churning out 200+ yards vs MIA and KC was impressive. However, their output vs BUF and SD was a bit more representative of how good it is- which is average.

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Yeah, Anderson has been getting about 2.8/2.9 YPC the last two games. In fact, take away that one big 47 yard run against the Bills and that is basically the teams average the last two games.

Sicilian said:

He's already tanked the end of my fantasy season. Though I suppose if I didn't want to be in first place all year then lose in my first playoff game, I wouldn't have drafted Manning in the first place. I got what I deserved.

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Manning is always on my do not draft list. Whether it be on the field off the field I'm not cheering for the forehead. I'm certainly not drafting him and have to quietly hope he does well.

To the tune of the Nationwide jingle:

"Noodle feeling in my arm..."

KontradictioN said:

The Patriots leaned heavily on that run game in 2013 because their interior OL wasn't doing the job in pass protection and because they had, probably, the worst WR corps in the league. The Broncos are doing it because Manning's arm strength is wavering badly.

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There are certainly obvious signs that his arm strength is not the same, however his experience, intelligence, and ability to pre-read defenses and make proper adjustments mask this issue greatly.

Aside from Rodgers and Brady, there's still no one else that the majority of coaches and players would want QB'ing their team, and that includes both Luck and Brees.

Rob0729 said:

Exactly. People are praising Fox and Manning for coming up with this brilliant game plan to make them playoff ready, but I think it was Fox's only option at this point and he was just luck that Anderson is running so well.

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I'm not "praising Fox or Manning" as much as I am saying that if it happened to us, we'd all be saying that we struck gold with a no-name RB, and are preparing for the postseason by effectively running the ball + showing better balance.

The bottom line is that they continue to win games (I believe that you stated many times how you weren't concerned about them continuing to win, and were much more worried about KC 'winning out'), and are now showing that they can do it in another manner via the ground and pound running game.

We're both on the same side here, and there is going to obviously be bias due to it being a Pats fans board, but the fact remains that when we win by other means it's considered awesome. When Denver wins in other ways, you claim that something is obviously wrong with Manning and their offensive receiving talent. It just seems like an odd double standard, that's all.

All that said, "Go Pats," and screw the Broncos. I hope you're right on this one.

Did you see how our play-action improved when Gray entered the Fins game.I think the Pats were not playing him because A.being punished for being late and B.to not give to much away to other teams.

supafly said:

I'm not "praising Fox or Manning" as much as I am saying that if it happened to us, we'd all be saying that we struck gold with a no-name RB, and are preparing for the postseason by effectively running the ball + showing better balance.

The bottom line is that they continue to win games (I believe that you stated many times how you weren't concerned about them continuing to win, and were much more worried about KC 'winning out'), and are now showing that they can do it in another manner via the ground and pound running game.

We're both on the same side here, and there is going to obviously be bias due to it being a Pats fans board, but the fact remains that when we win by other means it's considered awesome. When Denver wins in other ways, you claim that something is obviously wrong with Manning and their offensive receiving talent. It just seems like an odd double standard, that's all.

All that said, "Go Pats," and screw the Broncos. I hope you're right on this one.

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I wasn't directing this at you. I was talking about the media wh0, as Michael Irvin has said, aren't allowed to say anything negative about Peyton Manning. Hell, in their Power Rankings, ESPN touted how it was one of Manning's best game throwing the deep ball this past weekend when anyone who watched the game saw him throw ducks that were ducks by even his standard.

And I said in this thread, both teams made offensive changes out of necessity. And the rhetoric last year was to trash Belichick the manager for not keeping Welker more than calling him a genius. I think both sides are doing what they need to do to win, but the difference is that the media is praising Manning for giving up his personnel glory to hand off the ball (which just shows he was a selfish player).

If we are going to pat ourselves on the back, I called it that the Rams would beat the Broncos which I was resoundingly ridiculed (you thought I was crazy). Now that teams are starting to figure out that they need to stop the running game, it will be interesting Monday night if the Bengals can stop the run and force Manning to throw in 20 something degree weather.

I admit I overestimated KC though. But if they had at least an average offense, they would have won that game.

The only way the Broncos can win right now is on defense. If they cannot hold a team to under 21-25 points, I don't think the Broncos can win games. That is how they are winning right now. They have been lucky to have hit a stretch of offensively challenged teams. The best one they have faced was Miami (ranked 19th in total offense and 12th in points scored) and they gave up 36 points to them. Cincy doesn't have a good offense, but their defense and the cold might be the equalizer (although the primetime game hurts).

It don't think they go far in the playoffs though. I think any team with a good offense can beat them in a shoot out right now. I didn't say will.

Rob0729 said:

I wasn't directing this at you. I was talking about the media wh0, as Michael Irvin has said, aren't allowed to say anything negative about Peyton Manning.

It don't think they go far in the playoffs though. I think any team with a good offense can beat them in a shoot out right now. I didn't say will.

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I think you have a fine point about the constant ball washing in the media, and that we rarely hear much about Manning's potential to be slowing down. If that's your point, then I agree with you that it's a fine one.

I just personally didn't agree about the part that they are being forced to run the ball, although that's certainly debatable due to the fact that they seemed to have changed their offense up a bit after getting shut down by the Rams. It's possible that this is one of those issues where both parties are correct on some level.

Either way, this definitely isn't about who's right or wrong, because I've been wrong plenty of times this year and wouldn't want to go there. I certainly respect your opinions and think that you're a high quality poster, even if it seems as though I'm disagreeing sometimes. In the end I want you to be correct more than I could ever describe in words

I would normally shrug off this sort of thing as a combination of wishful thinking and haterade in Pats nation, but a Broncos fan brought it up to me on his own. He said there's definitely something wrong with Manning. Skill deterioration or injuries, who cares.

I'm sure Browner, McCourty, and Revis can't wait for duck season.

My work partner is a Broncos fan, and I told him three weeks ago that they needed to rein in Manning and establish a running game. My thought was they needed to prepare for the playoffs and take pressure off an offensive line that was having difficulty. Sure enough, that is what they have done. The Broncos are in good shape. They stop the run. They get after the passer. They run the ball.

supafly said:

I think you have a fine point about the constant ball washing in the media, and that we rarely hear much about Manning's potential to be slowing down. If that's your point, then I agree with you that it's a fine one.

I just personally didn't agree about the part that they are being forced to run the ball, although that's certainly debatable due to the fact that they seemed to have changed their offense up a bit after getting shut down by the Rams. It's possible that this is one of those issues where both parties are correct on some level.

Either way, this definitely isn't about who's right or wrong, because I've been wrong plenty of times this year and wouldn't want to go there. I certainly respect your opinions and think that you're a high quality poster, even if it seems as though I'm disagreeing sometimes. In the end I want you to be correct more than I could ever describe in words

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I still don't know how if you watched Manning play over the last month and not think there is an issue with him. He has played some of his worst football over this time. Brady was playing worlds better in September and the national media labeled him done. But you are certainly entitled to your opinion even if it is wrong.

Even if Manning wasn't declining for whatever reason, I do agree that emphasizing on the run is a smart thing to do. I just think you give Fox too much credit on why they are doing it.

Rob0729 said:

Even if Manning wasn't declining for whatever reason, I do agree that emphasizing on the run is a smart thing to do. I just think you give Fox too much credit on why they are doing it.

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Again--I'm not meaning to give John Fox credit, as much as I am simply pointing out the double standard being used.

Like I said, when most teams run the ball effectively and show better balance on offense as the season winds down, they're considered to be doing the right thing in preparation for the postseason.

Because it's Peyton Manning and co., we claim that they suddenly can't seem to throw the ball at will anymore? I'm not buying that theory for a second. I believe that Manning can still go out and sling the ball for 350 and 3-4 touchdowns on just about any given day.

I also believe that there have been signs that Manning has been slowing down as well, which is why I stated that it's quite possible that we're both correct on some level. That said, I wouldn't even consider sleeping on them, or going on past performances. To me, they are still the toughest obstacle to reaching the big game, and it will be a challenge to sweep them this year, while also winning 4 of the last 5.