WR in the 2015 draft

mayoclinic said:

Smelter is my clear favorite, too. I expect him to be a staple of just about every mock I do between now and the draft. I'm not a Coates or Montgomery fan - too inconsistent. I think they'd drive BB crazy. Goodley is intriguing to me as a possible RB/WR hybrid, but only if he lasted to late day 2 or day 3.

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I think Goodley is as inconsistent as the other two. That's why I'm merely intrigued rather than obsessed. TBH, I haven't really looked at WR this year, I just don't see a draft WR as a big priority.

manxman2601 said:

I think Goodley is as inconsistent as the other two. That's why I'm merely intrigued rather than obsessed. TBH, I haven't really looked at WR this year, I just don't see a draft WR as a big priority.

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Music to my ears. And I certainly don't mean to suggest that I'm "obsessed" with Goodley. You've sold me on Smelter, who is as close to a WR obsession as I've had in some time.

Smelter is all about scheme fit for me. If you think of Amendola's role as a possession receiver that can block, which is how we've been using him, rather than as the usual quick smurf, then I can see Smelter taking the Amendola spot on the roster. I also think Smelter backs up Lafell really well and I think there's even a little Tim Wright to his game.

manxman2601 said:

Smelter is all about scheme fit for me. If you think of Amendola's role as a possession receiver that can block, which is how we've been using him, rather than as the usual quick smurf, then I can see Smelter taking the Amendola spot on the roster. I also think Smelter backs up Lafell really well and I think there's even a little Tim Wright to his game.

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That sounds pretty much exactly like the kind of versatility that we look for. Added Smelter to my list as well.

manxman2601 said:

...TBH, I haven't really looked at WR this year, I just don't see drafting a WR as a big priority.

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If drafting a WR isn't a big priority (with which I disagree), then signing at least 2 of them during free agency is an absolute must.

captain stone said:

If drafting a WR isn't a big priority (with which I disagree), then signing at least 2 of them during free agency is an absolute must.

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Which gets me back to the question I've asked before - which ones? The list is not impressive. Maybe someone will be cut, but right now I don't see very many potential FA targets.

In either this thread or another one, we named a few potential FA targets. The top half-dozen of the list
will be too expensive, and there's not a lot of solid middle-class guys, but there are some, and the Pats
would be wise to sign at least one of them before the draft.

And as much as they absolutely suck at it, they still need to try for the brass ring at WR in the draft,
as well as sign a couple of potential diamonds-in-the-rough as UDFAs.

With the uncertainty of Dobson, Amendola's contract, and the fact Tyms really only runs one route, WR is definitely a need this off season. Whether it's the draft or FA who knows, but it should be addressed.

One thing you can take to the bank, it won't be addressed in the first round of the draft!

AzorianPats said:

With the uncertainty of Dobson, Amendola's contract, and the fact Tyms really only runs one route, WR is definitely a need this off season. Whether it's the draft or FA who knows, but it should be addressed.

One thing you can take to the bank, it won't be addressed in the first round of the draft!

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I don't think Tyms is even remotely a factor for the patriots next season and I think we all see that the patriots view amendola as a redundancy with Edelman on the team. Even with Dobson they will need wide receiver help and I expect they will pick one in the draft. I expect it will be someone in the mid rounds who can help on special teams as well

Smelters acl means he won't be ready for most of next year. Problem with wrs is that apparently they have to be smart enough to learn the system. And that's hit or miss.

Jaxson shipley is a udfa type who might be a decent slot guy and is pretty smart.

Not a huge fan of a draft receiver either, probably more so because the hand wringing will be unbearable considering their track record. Also the idea is you don't draft for now. That's why a Vet WR addition makes a lot of sense for me post Amendola cut. No problem taking a mid-late round flier on an injury guy with upside like Smelter.

Larry Fitzgerald
Andre Johnson

Both of the above mentioned are VERY possible cap casualties next year due to their bloated back end deals and ages. I think both would still be producing fine if their QB's weren't Arby Cashiers. On a 1-2 year deal either could make sense. Would allow Edelman to play more of his natural position like he did before Amendola sucked. Also takes pressure off the team via Dobson dependency in '15

West Philly Patriot said:

Not a huge fan of a draft receiver either, probably more so because the hand wringing will be unbearable considering their track record. Also the idea is you don't draft for now. That's why a Vet WR addition makes a lot of sense for me post Amendola cut. No problem taking a mid-late round flier on an injury guy with upside like Smelter.

Larry Fitzgerald
Andre Johnson

Both of the above mentioned are VERY possible cap casualties next year due to their bloated back end deals and ages. I think both would still be producing fine if their QB's weren't Arby Cashiers. On a 1-2 year deal either could make sense. Would allow Edelman to play more of his natural position like he did before Amendola sucked. Also takes pressure off the team via Dobson dependency in '15

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I'm fine with either of these IF they are a cap casualty (I wouldn't trade for either at the back end of their careers) and IF they can be fit under the cap. That seems like a stretch to me, but stranger things have happened, such as signing Darrelle Revis after TB cut him.

I like the idea of drafting DeAndre Smelter with an eye to 2016. Give him a year to get healthy and learn the system. For a nice profile on Smelter, see:

http://www.bigboarddraft.com/#!deandre-smelter/cu41

I think if you had this kid learn from Andre Johnson for a year, he'd be special.

mayoclinic said:

I'm fine with either of these IF they are a cap casualty (I wouldn't trade for either at the back end of their careers) and IF they can be fit under the cap. That seems like a stretch to me, but stranger things have happened, such as signing Darrelle Revis after TB cut him.

I like the idea of drafting DeAndre Smelter with an eye to 2016. Give him a year to get healthy and learn the system. For a nice profile on Smelter, see:

http://www.bigboarddraft.com/#!deandre-smelter/cu41

I think if you had this kid learn from Andre Johnson for a year, he'd be special.

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Smelter situation looks like an ideal fit if you ask me. He could have a full redshirt season to get his body to NFL standards and also breathe the system without the weekly pressure of actually performing. Of course it all depends on all the non obvious variables. Who knows if he is even on the board.

I think we should double dip at WR: once at the draft for a long term prospect and in FA for a short term contributer to have insurance for Dobson. As I have said in another thread, it looks like the Saints will be in bigger cap trouble next year and Marques Colston could be on the chopping block. Depending on what he has left in his tank he might be economically more feasible than a Fitzgerald type player.

luuked said:

Smelter situation looks like an ideal fit if you ask me. He could have a full redshirt season to get his body to NFL standards and also breathe the system without the weekly pressure of actually performing. Of course it all depends on all the non obvious variables. Who knows if he is even on the board.

I think we should double dip at WR: once at the draft for a long term prospect and in FA for a short term contributer to have insurance for Dobson. As I have said in another thread, it looks like the Saints will be in bigger cap trouble next year and Marques Colston could be on the chopping block. Depending on what he has left in his tank he might be economically more feasible than a Fitzgerald type player.

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Fine by me if they can figure out how to do it. But I just don't know how we're going to find the cap space. According to Overthgcap.com we're currently not in great shape for 2015:

http://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space

I expect that number to be improved somewhat, but just re-signing our own FAs will be a major challenge. But we'll see.

mayoclinic said:

Fine by me if they can figure out how to do it. But I just don't know how we're going to find the cap space. According to Overthgcap.com we're currently not in great shape for 2015:

http://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space

I expect that number to be improved somewhat, but just re-signing our own FAs will be a major challenge. But we'll see.

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Obviously putting the cap together is the major concern. I just don't see how any WR in the draft can really help us short term and at the same time I am not comfortable of putting all our eggs into the Dobson basket. He might emerge and be the player we hoped he would be but could also just fizzle out completely and be out by camp.

That's why I only see us going after WRs that have the right measurables but are already a bit past their prime and should be available cheaper. I have no idea if a player like Colston is economically possible but if he isn't than Fitzgerald or anyone else for sure is not.

I understand that since we play the majority of our snaps with Gronk + FlexBack (Vereen? White?) another WR really is not that high of a priority as many assume. You can only field so many players at a time. But there is a reason why we drafted Dobson in the second round and his role/routes in the playbook are currently not available to us. The only question is if you can find someone where the price/playtime relation is reasonable.

luuked said:

Obviously putting the cap together is the major concern. I just don't see how any WR in the draft can really help us short term and at the same time I am not comfortable of putting all our eggs into the Dobson basket. He might emerge and be the player we hoped he would be but could also just fizzle out completely and be out by camp.

That's why I only see us going after WRs that have the right measurables but are already a bit past their prime and should be available cheaper. I have no idea if a player like Colston is economically possible but if he isn't than Fitzgerald or anyone else for sure is not.

I understand that since we play the majority of our snaps with Gronk + FlexBack (Vereen? White?) another WR really is not that high of a priority as many assume. You can only field so many players at a time. But there is a reason why we drafted Dobson in the second round and his role/routes in the playbook are currently not available to us. The only question is if you can find someone where the price/playtime relation is reasonable.

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I have no problem with any of this. I just don't know how realistic it will be. I trust in the FO's ability to find depth and make some strategic pickups. But I think the priority is keeping as much of the team together as possible, and after that there may not be much room left.

Cutting or trading Danny Amendola frees up only $2.1M in cap space, and creates $3.6M in dead space. I think a Solder deal could lower his cap hit a bit, and the Pats could save money with Brady by converting base salary into signing bonus, or by an extension. Hooman could be a cap casualty, but only frees up $1.2M or so. And with Vereen, Ridley, Connolly and Gostkowski as FAs, I'm not sure there will be enough left to do much in terms of a FA WR. I hope there is.

The bottom line to me is that the Pats may have to live with Amendola and Dobson next year, and hope they produce.

mayoclinic said:

I have no problem with any of this. I just don't know how realistic it will be. I trust in the FO's ability to find depth and make some strategic pickups. But I think the priority is keeping as much of the team together as possible, and after that there may not be much room left.

Cutting or trading Danny Amendola frees up only $2.1M in cap space, and creates $3.6M in dead space. I think a Solder deal could lower his cap hit a bit, and the Pats could save money with Brady by converting base salary into signing bonus, or by an extension. Hooman could be a cap casualty, but only frees up $1.2M or so. And with Vereen, Ridley, Connolly and Gostkowski as FAs, I'm not sure there will be enough left to do much in terms of a FA WR. I hope there is.

The bottom line to me is that the Pats may have to live with Amendola and Dobson next year, and hope they produce.

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I agree with everything. In addition to your scenarios, I think something will happen with Mayo and his contract. But I assume that we will be able to guess the trajectory of it all better in late February. By then some of the extensions/restructures should be well on their way and we will have a clear max cap number.

It is amazing how much the Hernandez debacle screwed up. I mean I am sure that the FO has a long term plan in terms of drafting/FA and when he had to be cut I don't even want to know how much of the plan was totally screwed up. You have a missing key piece on offense that you planned to build around, a huge hole in cap space that prevents investments at other (or the same) position.

luuked said:

I agree with everything. In addition to your scenarios, I think something will happen with Mayo and his contract. But I assume that we will be able to guess the trajectory of it all better in late February.

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I've been treating the offense/ST and the defense separately. IMO the top priority is keeping the defense intact, and that will be a big challenge. I've outlined a plan for doing it, but things like restructuring Mayo are already used up in my book.

mayoclinic said:

I have no problem with any of this. I just don't know how realistic it will be. I trust in the FO's ability to find depth and make some strategic pickups. But I think the priority is keeping as much of the team together as possible, and after that there may not be much room left.

Cutting or trading Danny Amendola frees up only $2.1M in cap space, and creates $3.6M in dead space. I think a Solder deal could lower his cap hit a bit, and the Pats could save money with Brady by converting base salary into signing bonus, or by an extension. Hooman could be a cap casualty, but only frees up $1.2M or so. And with Vereen, Ridley, Connolly and Gostkowski as FAs, I'm not sure there will be enough left to do much in terms of a FA WR. I hope there is.

The bottom line to me is that the Pats may have to live with Amendola and Dobson next year, and hope they produce.

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If cutting Amendola fees up 2.1M in cap space, then why wouldn't they do it? The 3.6M is already accounted for in the amount of cap space it clears up.