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My Blueprint for the Defense


From Reiss' Quick Hits today:



Nothing new, except for how high the percentages have climbed. With almost 75% of the snaps out of sub, "base" really is becoming less and less important. Andy Johnson has already speculated that a major goal on defense is being able to stop the run out of the "sub". It's something to think about in terms of draft and FA players who might fit, and contract priorities. Some guys who stand out to me include (but are not limited to):

- DE/OLB Bud Dupree
- DE/OLB Dante Fowler
- DE/OLB Danielle Hunter
- LB/sub DE Bernardrick McKinney
- LB/S Shaq Thompson

Tons of other guys who might fit well, too.

I think this will depend on who is renewed. If Ayers is renewed, a DE/OLB is much less needed and I think a Wilfork replacement or LDE type should be prioritised. If Ayers leaves, then I agree, a more dynamic pass rusher should be targeted. If Branch signs a longer term contract then a 5-tech/3-tech type is also less of a need.
 
I think this will depend on who is renewed. If Ayers is renewed, a DE/OLB is much less needed and I think a Wilfork replacement or LDE type should be prioritised. If Ayers leaves, then I agree, a more dynamic pass rusher should be targeted. If Branch signs a longer term contract then a 5-tech/3-tech type is also less of a need.

Even if those guys are re-signed, I think that whether you emphasize "sub" to such an extent makes a difference. If you're playing sub 75% of the time (or potentially more, down the road), then you want a ton of rotational capability and depth in terms of guys who can allow you to do different things and make your packages work. You especially want to find "sub" guys who are versatile enough to be reasonably effective in base, but you probably don't want to spend a ton of resources on a guy who's maximal value is in base. So I might go for a guy like Fowler/Dupree over someone like Oakman/Odighizuwa who may have greater value in base (I understand that those guys can move inside in sub packages, but I'm not sure that value is greater than the value of a Fowler/Dupree kind of guy).

I don't know the answer, but I think it's something to think about.
 
Even if those guys are re-signed, I think that whether you emphasize "sub" to such an extent makes a difference. If you're playing sub 75% of the time (or potentially more, down the road), then you want a ton of rotational capability and depth in terms of guys who can allow you to do different things and make your packages work. You especially want to find "sub" guys who are versatile enough to be reasonably effective in base, but you probably don't want to spend a ton of resources on a guy who's maximal value is in base. So I might go for a guy like Fowler/Dupree over someone like Oakman/Odighizuwa who may have greater value in base (I understand that those guys can move inside in sub packages, but I'm not sure that value is greater than the value of a Fowler/Dupree kind of guy).

I don't know the answer, but I think it's something to think about.


Thing is, I think Nink/Jones/Ayers with some Hightower is a really nice rotation and as I've said earlier the pass rush with three guys isn't great so I'd look for a Chris Jones replacement or a Wilfork replacement hence my interest in Hardison or a Malcom Brown as a Wilfork replacement. The reason I like Odhigizuwa is that he too can add some pass rush in sub as well as be an effective long-term LDE.

I have no problem with taking Fowler or Dupree, it's just that personally I prefer a bigger DL player for that sub. But as I said, it depends on what happens with Ayers/Branch.
 
Thing is, I think Nink/Jones/Ayers with some Hightower is a really nice rotation and as I've said earlier the pass rush with three guys isn't great so I'd look for a Chris Jones replacement or a Wilfork replacement hence my interest in Hardison or a Malcom Brown as a Wilfork replacement. The reason I like Odhigizuwa is that he too can add some pass rush in sub as well as be an effective long-term LDE.

I have no problem with taking Fowler or Dupree, it's just that personally I prefer a bigger DL player for that sub. But as I said, it depends on what happens with Ayers/Branch.

I understand all of that, and I don't think there's a clear priority at this point. It will be interesting to see what the team does. Part of why I like Danielle Hunter is that I think he is equally versatile in sub and in base - the closest defensive prospect to Chandler Jones that I've seen in a while, though he's lighter and a bit more athletic and mobile than Jones.
 
Through 14 games the Pats are currently averaging 20.0 PPG (including scoring not allowed by the defense), and rank 8th in the NFL in scoring allowed:

1. Detroit - 238 point allowed, 17.0 PPG
2. Seattle - 242 points allowed, 17.3 PPG
3. Arizona - 244 points allowed, 17.4 PPG
4 (tie). Buffalo - 254 points allowed, 18.1 PPG
4 (tie). Kansas City - 254 points allowed, 18.1 PPG
6. Baltimore - 267 points allowed, 19.1 PPG
7. Houston - 277 points allowed, 19.8 PPG
8. New England - 280 points allowed, 20.0 PPG

Close behind are San Francisco (285 points allowed, PPG), Cincinnati (289 points allowed, PPG), and San Diego (294 points allowed, PPG) and St. Louis/Minnesota (both 297 points allowed, PPG).

Most encouraging ,the defense has allowed 10, 3, 3, 0 and 0 2nd half points over the past 6 games.
 
Canuck on the main board referenced this article by Bleacher Report national lead writer Ty Schalter, on the evolution of hybrid defenses:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2117320-are-hybrid-defensive-fronts-the-future-of-nfl-defenses

The article discusses many of the concepts in this thread, and is well worth a read. It concludes:

Going forward, the football-watching world needs to consider classifying defenders in an alignment-agnostic way. These old descriptors ("tackles," "ends," "outside linebackers") just don't mean the same thing anymore.

Just like offensive coordinators are aggressively spreading the field, eliminating some positions (like fullback) and de-emphasizing the roles of others (like tight end), it makes sense that defensive coordinators are responding in kind.

Already, defensive coordinators are moving toward complex, hybridized, symmetrical alignments that give them maximum flexibility in coverage (and create maximum confusion). As the 2014 season approaches, don't be surprised to hear more teams ... eschewing the idea of a "base alignment" altogether.

Few teams have the personnel that the Pats do in terms of guys like Chandler Jones, Dont'a Hightower, Jamie Collins, Rob Ninkovich and Akeem Ayers, all of whom can do multiple things well and play interchangeable roles.
 
The more I look at this D the more I find it harder to decide what I want to add to it assuming FA goes as I want. I have been pounding the table a bit to maybe take a safety high but then Harmon makes a good play and has the athleticism to nearly return it to the house. Also they played a lot of 3 & 4 Safety in this game in the 2nd half and it seemed to work when Arrington went down.

Maybe Harmon/Wilson are actually decent backups but Chung/McCourty are not giving them the chance to show it. Harmon (besides the pick) in particular looked like he belonged. I might want to give him 1 more year before signing a long term backup replacement.

I say right now how I feel is trade up for a DT in round 1 and then you are done on D for now.
 
The more I look at this D the more I find it harder to decide what I want to add to it assuming FA goes as I want. I have been pounding the table a bit to maybe take a safety high but then Harmon makes a good play and has the athleticism to nearly return it to the house. Also they played a lot of 3 & 4 Safety in this game in the 2nd half and it seemed to work when Arrington went down.

Maybe Harmon/Wilson are actually decent backups but Chung/McCourty are not giving them the chance to show it. Harmon (besides the pick) in particular looked like he belonged. I might want to give him 1 more year before signing a long term backup replacement.

I say right now how I feel is trade up for a DT in round 1 and then you are done on D for now.

Good thoughts.

I think it's important to think long term rather than in terms of immediate "needs", and also in terms of pipelining talent.

- I'm fine with McCourty-Chung-Harmon-Wilson-Ebner at safety (plus Ryan and Arrington having some ability to play FS) for 2015, assuming McCourty and Chung are re-signed. But Wilson and Ebner are FAs in 2016, and Harmon in 2017. I think Ebner gets re-signed as a core STer/big nickel and dime safety, but I think it's better than even money that one or both of Wilson/Harmon walks, and both are upgradeable. I'd consider adding a safety like Jaquiski Tartt or Durell Eskridge if they are available at the right value.

- CB is not an acute need assuming Revis is extended, but Browner is 30, Dennard and Arrington are FAs in 2016, and Ryan and Butler in 2017. A day 3 developmental CB for competition would not be a bad thing.

- If Ayers is re-signed then the Pats have a nice rotation with Jones-Ninkovich-Ayers, but Ninkovich is 30 and his current deal expires after 2016. Jones, Hightower and Collins will all be high-priced players to retain. And having lots of versatile DE/OLBs seems to be one of the keys to making this defense work (along with lots of talented DBs). So I'd value highly a rotational DE/OLB who can play multiple roles in this defense.

- Having LBs who can play in this scheme is key. Hightower and Collins are perfect, but both will be expensive to keep. Mayo's long term role is uncertain. Casillas is a FA, and a depth guy. Someone like Bernardrick McKinney could be an extremely valuable long term asset.

Plus there is DT, as you mention.

If you look at "needs" for 2015 there aren't many. If you think of it in terms of pipelining talent and building for the future, there are plenty of areas to invest if the right values are available. It's a great luxury to be able to take that approach.
 
I'm a big fan of B McKinney. Although he would be more of a luxury pick he would be a good start to keep the LB pipe flowing. If anyone thinks they are going to keep all of Mayo,Hightower,Collins and C Jones in free agency they are having foggy vision. Those aren't just Patriots scheme fit players. They are elite NFL players you could plug in on any team and they would make instant impacts. They will be in high demand when they hit free agency and are going to get paid. Especially since they are young and are going to improve before they hit.

Maybe a bit early to start worrying about it. Hopefully they can win a championship or two or three before the scavenging happens but it never hurts to look ahead.
 
I'm a big fan of B McKinney. Although he would be more of a luxury pick he would be a good start to keep the LB pipe flowing. If anyone thinks they are going to keep all of Mayo,Hightower,Collins and C Jones in free agency they are having foggy vision. Those aren't just Patriots scheme fit players. They are elite NFL players you could plug in on any team and they would make instant impacts. They will be in high demand when they hit free agency and are going to get paid. Especially since they are young and are going to improve before they hit.

Maybe a bit early to start worrying about it. Hopefully they can win a championship or two or three before the scavenging happens but it never hurts to look ahead.

Any good FO is thinking about these issues and looking ahead.

As I see it:

- For 2015 Revis, Mayo, Wilfork and McCourty are likely to be the 4 highest cap hit defenders ($8M+ cap hit). Browner, Arrington and Ninkovich are middle of the road (roughly $4-5M each). Ayers may also fall into that range. Jones, Hightower and Collins are all bargains ($2.5-$2.6M for Jones and Hightower, $1M for Collins). Easley is on his rookie deal ($1.65M for 2015).

- For 2016 Wilfork will probably come off the books. I think that Mayo's contract will also likely be resolved by that point. Jones and Hightower will either have extensions or their 5th year option (likely around $8-9M each, depending on the league-wide cap). Ninkovich-Browner-Arrington (and Ayers if extended) will all still be middle of the road cap hits. Collins and Easley will still be cheap ($1.2M and $2M), assuming Collins isn't extended first.

- By 2017 Jones, Hightower and Collins will all be due big money extensions. The priority should be planning for these, and getting a pipeline of young talent to complement them.

Guys like Bernardrick McKinney, Alvin Dupree, Dante Fowler or Danielle Hunter would provide 4 years of low-cost premium talent that fits complements well. That has tremendous value.
 
I know this was talked about quite a bit when Browner was signed, but I wonder if there are any thoughts about moving him more in to a safety role eventually. His play this year has obviously shown him still very strong at the corner position, but he is not the type of player that can afford to even lose a step athletically.

I dont know if the team is planning that eventual move, but given his skill set, I could forsee him and McCourty complimenting each other very well. His tackling near the line of scrimmage is better than any safety we have had since Rodney.
 
Current guys who interest me for the 2015 draft (not in a rigid order) include:

Day 1/2:

DE/OLB Bud Dupree
DE/OLB Dante Fowler
DE/OLB Danielle Hunter
ILB/DE/OLB Bernardrick McKinney
DT Eddie Goldman
DT Malcolm Brown
DT Jordan Phillips

Not sure how guys like Shawn Oakman, Arik Amstead, DeForest Buckner and Owamagbe Odighizuwa fit in, but they are of interest. Also not sure about Preston Smith.

Day 3:

DE/OLB Noah Spence
DE/OLB Shiquille Riddick
DE/OLB Lyndon Trail
DT Terry Williams
LB Paul Dawson
LB Ben Heeney
S Jaquiski Tartt
S Durrelle Eskridge
S Adrian Amos
WR/CB Tony Lippett
CB Quinten Rollins
 
Matt Patricia on the value of versatility among the defensive players:
“Defensively, all of our players are asked to do a lot of different things — whether it’s play man coverage, play zone coverage, rush the quarterback, stop the run, play in the front, play in the secondary,” New England defensive coordinator Matt Patricia said in a conference call on Tuesday. “We try to ask those guys to do multiple different roles whenever we see it applicable. We are certainly going to ask our guys to do a lot. They do a tremendous job of studying and preparing and trying to execute the game plan to the best of their ability and what we’re trying to get accomplished in that game. Certainly, the more that you can do as a player, then, obviously, the more value you can create for yourself — and hopefully help us win the game.”

http://www.providencejournal.com/sp...atriots-defenders-showing-off-versatility.ece
 
I say right now how I feel is trade up for a DT in round 1 and then you are done on D for now.

If a 1st-round trade-up for a defensive player is to happen, I'd prefer a DE.
 
If a 1st-round trade-up for a defensive player is to happen, I'd prefer a DE.

I'm agnostic, assuming Akeem Ayers is re-signed. If Ayers is not re-signed, then DE is definitely a priority. But I'd be willing to trade up for a potential impact player if the price is right (no more than a 3rd round pick). Eddie Goldman is such a player, IMO. Bud Dupree may be, too. TJ Clemmings is as well.
 
I would have little issue trading our 1st and 2nd to move up for the right player though I don't personally think that is the way to go in this draft generally unless Wilfork is gone next year and now we have a sizable hole on D that can truly benefit from a star player being added.

I just see it as this. 6 picks in the top 4 rounds. Even if that is all the picks we had could we really sign them all if FA goes well for the Pats? I don't think so.

There just are not 6 spots open. As much as you'd love to have a 9th true DB or 5th true LB those spots are just better off with pure special teamers.

This goes to a bigger issue of team building though for me.

The fact is this team benefits more from guys like Ebner at SS than it would from a quality backup and an average ST player.

Now people will of course say "well yeah, but don't you want a good player AND good special teamer?" Yes, but it is generally not practical. A lot of players that are difference makers on STs are that way cause they practice STs. They work on it as their main craft and to ask a player that has worked on being a good DB to raise his STs ability while also improving his DB skills is generally not practical.

There are only so many hours in a day and if you need to prioritize what skill sets you work on if you want to get better. Ebner, Slater, Bolder, ect... Are good at STs cause they work on it for hours every practice. They set it as their priority to improve and sustain ability in that area.

I think getting a good LB or DB who can play some special teams cause you are worried about being deep enough will just end up making your team worse. It is like "okay I got a superior player from last year behind my starter that is not going to get any snaps unless there is an injury so I feel more secure but my special teams unit now has become worse which is hurting me right now.

So in the end you make your self weaker to hope to minimize damage to any position INCASE something were to happen. Best case scenario you make your STs worse and gain nothing.

That to me is not smart team building. I think when building a team you need to be realistic about how deep you really have to go for Offense/Defensive players.

For instance LB. You really only need 3 or max 4. The 5th and 6th guys should be pure ST players as this benefits you the most. Trying to go half and half for those guys hurts you in one area for no benefit in the other.

When it was Mayo/Hightower/Collins. The 4th guy never saw the field.

Now it is Hightower/Collins/Casillias. The 4th guys never sees the field. It does not matter if your 5th LB is good if he will not play. What matters is how good he is at STs.

I am not saying people here devalue STs but I think sometimes we get so caught up with the idea of depth we forget usually not many players actually step on the field to see meaningful snaps and worry too much about the snaps a player might see opposed to ST snaps a player will see.
 
Current guys who interest me for the 2015 draft (not in a rigid order) include:

Day 1/2:

DE/OLB Bud Dupree
DE/OLB Dante Fowler
DE/OLB Danielle Hunter
ILB/DE/OLB Bernardrick McKinney
DT Eddie Goldman
DT Malcolm Brown
DT Jordan Phillips

Not sure how guys like Shawn Oakman, Arik Amstead, DeForest Buckner and Owamagbe Odighizuwa fit in, but they are of interest. Also not sure about Preston Smith.

Day 3:

DE/OLB Noah Spence
DE/OLB Shiquille Riddick
DE/OLB Lyndon Trail
DT Terry Williams
LB Paul Dawson
LB Ben Heeney
S Jaquiski Tartt
S Durrelle Eskridge
S Adrian Amos
WR/CB Tony Lippett
CB Quinten Rollins

If they can't get one of the guards I covet at 32 or a small trade up I'm thinking real hard on all 3 of those day 1/2 DTs. Especially if they are able to lock up Ayers and Mayo comes back healthy and renogiated. Terry Williams with be great value if they decide to go in another direction with the 1st pick.
 
I would have little issue trading our 1st and 2nd to move up for the right player though I don't personally think that is the way to go in this draft generally unless Wilfork is gone next year and now we have a sizable hole on D that can truly benefit from a star player being added.

I just see it as this. 6 picks in the top 4 rounds. Even if that is all the picks we had could we really sign them all if FA goes well for the Pats? I don't think so.

There just are not 6 spots open. As much as you'd love to have a 9th true DB or 5th true LB those spots are just better off with pure special teamers.

This goes to a bigger issue of team building though for me.

The fact is this team benefits more from guys like Ebner at SS than it would from a quality backup and an average ST player.

Now people will of course say "well yeah, but don't you want a good player AND good special teamer?" Yes, but it is generally not practical. A lot of players that are difference makers on STs are that way cause they practice STs. They work on it as their main craft and to ask a player that has worked on being a good DB to raise his STs ability while also improving his DB skills is generally not practical.

There are only so many hours in a day and if you need to prioritize what skill sets you work on if you want to get better. Ebner, Slater, Bolder, ect... Are good at STs cause they work on it for hours every practice. They set it as their priority to improve and sustain ability in that area.

I think getting a good LB or DB who can play some special teams cause you are worried about being deep enough will just end up making your team worse. It is like "okay I got a superior player from last year behind my starter that is not going to get any snaps unless there is an injury so I feel more secure but my special teams unit now has become worse which is hurting me right now.

So in the end you make your self weaker to hope to minimize damage to any position INCASE something were to happen. Best case scenario you make your STs worse and gain nothing.

That to me is not smart team building. I think when building a team you need to be realistic about how deep you really have to go for Offense/Defensive players.

For instance LB. You really only need 3 or max 4. The 5th and 6th guys should be pure ST players as this benefits you the most. Trying to go half and half for those guys hurts you in one area for no benefit in the other.

When it was Mayo/Hightower/Collins. The 4th guy never saw the field.

Now it is Hightower/Collins/Casillias. The 4th guys never sees the field. It does not matter if your 5th LB is good if he will not play. What matters is how good he is at STs.

I am not saying people here devalue STs but I think sometimes we get so caught up with the idea of depth we forget usually not many players actually step on the field to see meaningful snaps and worry too much about the snaps a player might see opposed to ST snaps a player will see.

I don't agree with this, personally. I don't think you can have enough depth, or competition. Our ST is probably the best in the league, so I don't think we have exactly cannibalized STs to get roster depth.

I think that you draft to improve the team, and for the long term. Trying to think in terms of available roster spots just doesn't work out well. There are invariably unforeseen circumstances. We went from having the strongest and deepest TE group in the league to being thin overnight in 2013.

Versatility is key. I don't prioritize a LB high, but someone like Bernardrick McKinney who can play ILB, OLB and sub rusher in different schemes is a highly rated prospect in my book. Having a rotation of pass rushers and keeping guys fresh was key for Seattle last year, and loss of players led to a major problem earlier this year.

The draft is a crapshoot, so trading away picks means putting less eggs in a smaller basket. Less chance for success. I would trade up if I were fairly certain, but a 1st and a 2nd is a lot. I thought Aaron Donald was worth that last year. Right now I don't have anyone I value quite that highly, but it's early.

Trading into 2016 is an entirely different consideration, but it depends on someone being willing to dance. I'd be thrilled to have a shot next year at someone like Jalen Ramsey, who I think would be a perfect fit for our defense.
 
I don't agree with this, personally. I don't think you can have enough depth, or competition. Our ST is probably the best in the league, so I don't think we have exactly cannibalized STs to get roster depth.

I think that you draft to improve the team, and for the long term. Trying to think in terms of available roster spots just doesn't work out well. There are invariably unforeseen circumstances. We went from having the strongest and deepest TE group in the league to being thin overnight in 2013.

Versatility is key. I don't prioritize a LB high, but someone like Bernardrick McKinney who can play ILB, OLB and sub rusher in different schemes is a highly rated prospect in my book. Having a rotation of pass rushers and keeping guys fresh was key for Seattle last year, and loss of players led to a major problem earlier this year.

The draft is a crapshoot, so trading away picks means putting less eggs in a smaller basket. Less chance for success. I would trade up if I were fairly certain, but a 1st and a 2nd is a lot. I thought Aaron Donald was worth that last year. Right now I don't have anyone I value quite that highly, but it's early.

Trading into 2016 is an entirely different consideration, but it depends on someone being willing to dance. I'd be thrilled to have a shot next year at someone like Jalen Ramsey, who I think would be a perfect fit for our defense.

I always enjoy reading your post Mayo and though I did mention a post of your in my above post do not think I was trying to put words in your mouth saying you do not support my position (though as you said you don't generally agree... but I understand this is a conversation of shades and not black and white).

I you mentioned the DL which tends to rotate a lot. I am fine without having many if any STs in that spot as that is the one spot on D you really need a rotation on and generally those players are too big and slow to do a lot of STs.

My comment is more for DBs and LBs and skill position O spots.

You mentioned the Patriots having the best overall special teams in the league and i agree that it might be. That is in part due to guys like Wilson, Harmon, Ebner, Bolden, Slater, Tyms ect...

Though you have rare example like Edelman that is a good WR and good ST player trying to get a bunch of guys like to put together your unit is not very likely to happen.

So would you prefer to sub the STs specialist out for better depth for O and D? There is an argument for doing such of course. However generally (besides DL as you mentioned and i agree on) you don't tend to rotate starters for the sake of keeping them fresh.

Generally you play your best players cause they are why you win. Though there is value in having a backup to McCourty (and i think we should have a better one) I think to try to get a 4th or 5th safety back up is being over redundant at the expense of hurting a need.

Here is how i see the roster (generally... not in all cases) for what you want to build on D.

DL 9 players.. no STs
LB 6 players overall including 2 STs specialist
DB 10 players overall including 2 STs specialist and 1 player who can do both decently.

I think this is the best way to build a team and BB tends to agree for the most part.
 
Andy Benoit of the MMQB has some interesting comments on the Pats-Miami game on his twitter feed:

https://twitter.com/andy_benoit

On Jamie Collins:
#Patriots Film: Collins flashed in a multitude of ways. Unbelievable short area athleticism and downhill burst. Will soon be top 5 NFL LB.
#Patriots Film: Collins tremendous lateral pursuit ability vs. run. A WOW athlete.

On Dont'a Hightower:
#Patriots #Dolphins Film: Hightower some great solo run stops. The 5-yd loss chase down of Miller and the 3rd-short stuff beating Satele.
#Patriots Film: In base 3-4, Hightower played OLB, Casillas ILB.

On Akeem Ayers (first one very interesting):
#Patriots Film: Ayers got snaps as a 3-tech in a 5-1 front. Vs. a wide 2 x 2 read-option look.
#Patriots Film: Ayers 31 snaps, played DE in nickel, Chandler Jones played DT.

On Vince Wilfork:
#Patriots Film: Wilfork ability to shed blocks and burst laterally for run stops.

On the coverage:
Film: once #Patriots got big lead, Revis moved over to Wallace. Combating the big-play potential, D was trading yards for time.
Film: #Patriots played a lot of Cover 3, fewer snaps of man than usual. Still matched CB’s to WR’s.

On the safeties:
#Dolphins Film: Chung INT out of disguised Cover 2, which #Patriots rarely do. Tannehill checked down to Miller, hit by Browner, deflection.
#Patriots Film: McCourty matched on TE in man coverage, including Clay. His flexibility has been critical for the D as of late.

Very interesting stuff.
 


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