Brady's pass attempt to Tyms

Deus Irae · Dec 16, 2014

LightSkinSmurf said:
I don't think you are watching the games if you think brady is good on deep balls.

You keep trying to change what was already said. Here's what I actually wrote:

Deus Irae said:
His throws are fine, overall.

Now, just using Tyms as the example, we see 1 completion in 5 targets, which is a lowly 20% connection clip. However, we can all easily look back at 1 drop and one poor route, without worrying about the other 2 incompletes. So, if we just give Brady half of those (1 of 2), he becomes 2 of 5, which is 40%.

That's what happens when you combine small sample sizes with receiver issues.

RobertWeathers · Dec 16, 2014

Satchboogie3 said:
I think some people don't quite understand how a long pass develops. It's not a matter of "The receiver is at location x, running with a velocity vector of V, with an acceleration that can be quantified (0, constant, or changing at a known/predictable rate, so I just have to throw it to location x_final, height h, at precisely time t." There are a LOT of variables that are constantly changing.

You have to throw the ball before the receiver even gets open ( most of the time), so you anticipate that they will get the separation, anticipate their speed/acceleration, their precise route, and the defenders technique. If ANY of those things change, it could throw off the play. Brady has no control over any of those things. A real deep-threat receiver adjusts to the ball, otherwise, there's practically no hope the play will ever work out right. It's just the physics of it. That's the problem right now. Brady has NO playmakers on the outside who have the speed/experience to make the right adjustments. Any real outside receiver makes that catch that Tymms couldn't reel in.

I'm not saying that Brady has a strong deep-ball game, but I think many people's criticism is completely unfair. Rodgers wouldn't fare much better if he didn't have Jordy Nelson to throw to...

In 2007, for throws over 30+ yards, TB was 13-30 for a 43% comp rate.

I'd like to think Moss & Stallworth- both with career reception averages of over 15ypc had something to do with it. Their ability outrace defenders, track a ball in flight and "climb the ladder" to get it was outstanding.

Clearly, when provided the talent Brady had done fine converting on the deep ball.

LightSkinSmurf · Dec 16, 2014

Deus Irae said:
You keep trying to change what was already said. Here's what I actually wrote:

Now, just using Tyms as the example, we see 1 completion in 5 targets, which is a lowly 20% connection clip. However, we can all easily look back at 1 drop and one poor route, without worrying about the other 2 incompletes. So, if we just give Brady half of those (1 of 2), he becomes 2 of 5, which is 40%.

That's what happens when you combine small sample sizes with receiver issues.

We are talking about deep balls here so I assumed you were talking about deep balls. I don't think his deep balls are fine overall. If you are talking about his overall throws period, yeah. I wasn't talking about that. You keep using tyms as an example. The one drop I remember from tyms wasn't a deep ball but it was a bad drop. If there is another one I'm not remembering I apologize but it doesn't change my point at all.

There are so many other instances where brady simply overthrows the receivers or sometimes underthrows on deep balls. More times than not brady is off on his deep balls. If you don't see that then I really don't know what to tell you.

Satchboogie3 · Dec 16, 2014

He's certainly not the best deep-ball passer in the league, but he isn't weak at throwing the deep ball. It breaks down like this:
With Moss:
'07 - 41%
'09 - 32% * first year back from injury
'10 - 39%

With David Patten/Branch:
'03 - 32%
'04 - 34%

Caldwell/Gafney:
'06 - 37%

Murderer/Ocho/Lloyd:
'10 - 32%
'11 - 32%

So for three years he has a legit burner and puts up solid % two of the years and career average the year back from injury.
With solid, but not elite outside receivers (patten, branch, ocho, lloyd, kinda Murderer), he's 32%-37%.

Since '11, it's been Gronk and then a bunch of slot receivers or rookies who can't get it done. There's no real outside receivers and it shows. If Brady had Moss (or a Harrison/Wayne, Jordy Nelson, Jennings Colston, Wallace, Megatron, FitzG, etc etc) throughout his career, he'd be sitting around that 40% mark and no one would be complaining...

Deus Irae · Dec 16, 2014

LightSkinSmurf said:
We are talking about deep balls here so I assumed you were talking about deep balls.

I was, and am, talking about deep balls. His throws are fine, overall.

LightSkinSmurf said:
You keep using tyms as an example. The one drop I remember from tyms wasn't a deep ball but it was a bad drop. If there is another one I'm not remembering I apologize but it doesn't change my point at all.

Yes, I'm using the subject of the thread as the example. And whether he changes your point doesn't matter. He undercuts your claim, which does matter.

LightSkinSmurf said:
There are so many other instances where brady simply overthrows the receivers or sometimes underthrows on deep balls. More times than not brady is off on his deep balls. If you don't see that then I really don't know what to tell you.

Again, as I noted before:

Deus Irae said:
People who ***** about this part of any QBs game frequently overestimate the average number of long throws made every year, and they also frequently underestimate the impact of WR mistakes on the results.

Tom meets Kaepernick · Dec 16, 2014

I haven't seen the phrase "deep balls" in a sentence so much since my high school days. Good times...

Deus Irae · Dec 16, 2014

Tom meets Kaepernick said:
I haven't seen the phrase "deep balls" in a sentence so much since my high school days. Good times...

If someone mistakenly flips it to "balls deep", Ian's going to have to lock the thread.

Boston Boxer · Dec 16, 2014

patsinthesnow said:
Tough crowd tonight. I thought our 37 year old QB who showed he can still throw an absolute bomb would be a worthy discussion.

he didn't complete the pass! He needs to either get more loft on the pass or wait a second more before he throws it. Either way, Tyms is always open on a deep ball and it would be nice to connect on one of those

dannydyn · Dec 16, 2014

Am I the only one who thinks this ball was catchable? If Tyms made the last second jump and leaped forward in the air he would have grabbed it. Instead he tried to beat the ball by foot, and missed.

Regardless, that was a hell of a throw and almost a catch. I also think that Tyms, not LaFell is our true deep threat. He has shown numerous times the ability to get separation and go deep.

doesntmatter1 · Dec 17, 2014

We don't need stats to see that Brady just isn't the greatest at throwing it deep. He needs to put more of an arc on those bombs. Brady and Rodgers are the only qbs where there deep ball don't have much arc on them but Rodgers is obviously more accurate throwing these type of passes. I actually think Brady would have an easier time throwing the deep ball if he just waited for the wr to get even deeper because it would force him to put his body into it more than just his arm.

Till this day, I believe the pre 2004 Brady before he bulked up was when he was at his best throwing those deep shots. The one positive thing about the way he throws the deep ball is that they don't seem to ever hang up in the air or die out in the wind, thus making it easier to pick off.

rfh · Dec 17, 2014

Brady has the worst deep ball accuracy in football and I cringe every time I see him wind up for a bomb because nothing good will come from it. It is either a wasted down or an INT. Brady is great up to about 25 yards and seeing him move/scramble/run has been a treat that has made a huge difference in his game... but the long ball is not his thing

TinhWoodhead · Dec 17, 2014

doesntmatter1 said:
The one positive thing about the way he throws the deep ball is that they don't seem to ever hang up in the air or die out in the wind, thus making it easier to pick off.

Sometimes you need a hanger like when you're behind and its the last drive so a receiver can at least have a chance to catch it. I hate Flacco but he's master in these situation.

Brady's pass attempt to Tyms

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