What is the biggest obstacle to SB win #4 for the Pats?

Mack Herron · Dec 16, 2014

1. Injuries. But I didn't say that.

Ivan · Dec 16, 2014

Patradomous said:
Average offense line.Sometimes they run block well sometimes they pass block well. Against an average at best GB defense they failed when they needed a play the most.Combined with McDaniel's curious playcalling the defense may have to win the game which I think they can.
Seattle is a different animal. But the D can win a 12-10 game for them. At the end of the day if they happen to lose it will be because of the O Line.

They actually have no chance because the cheap bastard Kraft's wouldn't sign any top free agents and screwed Brady out of any chance of a ring. The Broncos have already won it, the Patriots are done and have been by for months, it's just the asskissing rose colored glasses wearing Homer fanboys who think otherwise.

At least that's what I have been told.

SalemPats · Dec 16, 2014

A team that has a physical O-Line that can run the ball and control the clock is dangerous. I don't see anyone in the AFC that can do that consistently. Denver is trying to play more physical on offense, but i think once we get a lead, Manning will abandon that.

hieroglyphics · Dec 16, 2014

TheBostonStraggler said:
Up until a month ago Denver worried me. Denver of the first half of 2014 and all of 2013 could light up just about any defense faster than a spliff at a reggae concert. But Denever as of right now isn't achieving that same level of potency. IMHO without that potent 'lighting up' strength, Denver moves closer to a level of Indy or Pitt (meaning a team definitely capable of winning but doesn't strike fear in the heart).

Seattle? They physically dominate. Their Defense is rock solid - I'm taking that away from them -- but keep this in mind about Seattle's defense. The last 8 offenses they have faced: SF, SF, Oakland, Arizona (no Palmer), Giants, KC, Philly(no Foles), Carolina.
Philly with Mark Sanchez is the best offense they have faced by far. The next best offense they have faced is the 14th ranked Giants. Add in the 16th ranked Carolina offense and there are the only 3 offenses they have faced ranked 20 or better.
In the Patriots last 8 games they have played 3 legitimate top 10 offenses. 3 more in the 11 to 20 range, and only 2 ranked below 20 (Jets and Chicago at 23 and 25).
IMHO Seattle's D has been given a very favorable line up to sharpen its teeth and fatten up while the Patriots have been playing much more potent offenses.

Game 1 of the year they lit up Aaron Rodgers, don't forget. They've faced a series of bad offenses, but they have been absolutely killing those offenses. San Francisco had 6-7 injuries the last game. Last year's D was probably the best I've ever seen, top 5 defense all time, and this years is pretty close to where they were last year.

They light up teams who have "potent" offenses. Their defense is built to stop the pass, and their offense is built to control the clock. Having a potent offense actually works against you when you face Seattle, its all about how you stop Russell Wilson/Marshawn Lynch and how well your offense controls the pace of the game.

supafly · Dec 16, 2014

Oswlek said:
Murray is probably going to play this week. He'll definitely be good to go for the playoffs.

I just don't see how he's going to be able to play this week, but that's just my opinion. Jones is starting to hype up the backups more today, so I think the thought is starting to be a bit unrealistic for him as well.

Like you said though--he'll be available for the postseason....if they make it. If/when they lose to IND on Sunday, there aren't many scenarios where they can still get in as a wildcard (if PHI beats WAS and the NYG as expected).

They really need to beat Indy at home on Sunday to have a chance, b/c I don't see Seattle or Detroit losing.

sevengables_2207 · Dec 16, 2014

hieroglyphics said:
Game 1 of the year they lit up Aaron Rodgers, don't forget. They've faced a series of bad offenses, but they have been absolutely killing those offenses. San Francisco had 6-7 injuries the last game. Last year's D was probably the best I've ever seen, top 5 defense all time, and this years is pretty close to where they were last year.

They light up teams who have "potent" offenses. Their defense is built to stop the pass, and their offense is built to control the clock. Having a potent offense actually works against you when you face Seattle, its all about how you stop Russell Wilson/Marshawn Lynch and how well your offense controls the pace of the game.

I have little doubt of the veracity of the bolded portion of your post. However, I may add that IMO the Seahawks pass defense is built to stop passing offenses that channel production through wide receivers.

I do not think they can be as successful against teams that channel production through an all world tight end. If the Patriots decide are confident enough to utilize the two tight end package with Gronk and Wright, it could give the Seahawks defense some problems.

supafly · Dec 16, 2014

1960Pats said:
I'd like to find out. Dallas scares me less now that Murray might be done. If he's healthy they'll be tough.

I've got to agree with @Oswlek. I think if it somehow came down to playing DAL, many of us would be more than happy. Unfortunately, the chances of that happening aren't too good.

I honestly don't think DAL even gets in, and it's going to crush my poor wife (longtime fan)--which means I also will have to deal with the nonsense.

supafly · Dec 16, 2014

Dutchmaster617 said:
Gray is overrated, I easily can see a good team shutting him down, I don't consider him to be AP like most posters here.

I've yet to see anyone refer to Jonas Gray as "Adrian Peterson."

I have seen many claim that he is likely to provide the kind of skillset that allows us to run the ball effectively enough to set up playaction and control the clock, and I certainly agree. The fact that he's now done that successfully in multiple games should back that up even more.

Oswlek · Dec 16, 2014

supafly said:
I've yet to see anyone refer to Jonas Gray as "Adrian Peterson."

I have seen many claim that he is likely to provide the kind of skillset that allows us to run the ball effectively enough to set up playaction and control the clock, and I certainly agree. The fact that he's now done that successfully in multiple games should back that up even more.

Yup. I've yet to see an argument against Gray that doesn't devolve into a straw man, though most are more subtle than Dutch's.

supafly · Dec 16, 2014

SVN said:
HFA is great advantage but really doesn't gurantee anything. We lost to the 45-3 jets and the ravens at home.

Didn't have the usual definition of HFA vs. BAL in 2009, at least not as it's being applied here in the form of a first round bye. There was no break between week 17 and the wild card game they were forced to play, which is a huge plus and allows the team both to rest and have a longer time to prepare.

If you don't believe that HFA/first round bye is important, all you need to do is look at 2001, 2003, 2004, 2007, 2011, 2012, and 2013---where they got to the AFC Championship game or Super Bowl.

That's 7 out of 8 times (your 2010 example was the one where it didn't help) in the Brady/Belichick era. It increases the odds dramatically for a few different reasons.

OhExaulted1 · Dec 16, 2014

The greatest obstacle is getting the correct winning final score etched into the Lombardi.

BradyBranch39 · Dec 16, 2014

...must admit that Arizona scares me because it'd be a home game for them...

But good luck getting there, Mr. Arians. Highly unlikely.

Froob · Dec 16, 2014

supafly said:
Didn't have the usual definition of HFA vs. BAL in 2009, at least not as it's being applied here in the form of a first round bye. There was no break between week 17 and the wild card game they were forced to play, which is a huge plus and allows the team both to rest and have a longer time to prepare.

If you don't believe that HFA/first round bye is important, all you need to do is look at 2001, 2003, 2004, 2007, 2011, 2012, and 2013---where they got to the AFC Championship game or Super Bowl.

That's 7 out of 8 times (your 2010 example was the one where it didn't help) in the Brady/Belichick era. It increases the odds dramatically for a few different reasons.

At the same time, you have to account for that those teams got HFA because they were good teams. The 2009 team wasn't going to the SB with HFA. It's definitely a great thing to have, but the teams that have it have it because they are really good teams.

SVN · Dec 16, 2014

supafly said:
Didn't have the usual definition of HFA vs. BAL in 2009, at least not as it's being applied here in the form of a first round bye. There was no break between week 17 and the wild card game they were forced to play, which is a huge plus and allows the team both to rest and have a longer time to prepare.

If you don't believe that HFA/first round bye is important, all you need to do is look at 2001, 2003, 2004, 2007, 2011, 2012, and 2013---where they got to the AFC Championship game or Super Bowl.

That's 7 out of 8 times (your 2010 example was the one where it didn't help) in the Brady/Belichick era. It increases the odds dramatically for a few different reasons.

2011/12 they had a bye and lost at home to the ravens after ravens beat the team with the HFA -denver. Iam not saying HFA is unimportant. You always want HFA , the biggest reason for which is you need to win 2 games instead of 3 to get to the SB. All I meant was it doesnt gurantee anything .

Ice_Ice_Brady · Dec 16, 2014

Lack of offensive depth is concerning to me. In the past, it was if Gronkowski goes down, we are screwed (which were, in fact, were.) Currently, it is if Gronkowski, LaFell, or Edelman goes down, we are screwed. Or anyone on the offensive line. I don't see us winning the Super Bowl with Amendola or Tyms as a third option for Brady. The only option would be to attempt to make Shane Vereen a threat again (looking doubtful) or see how Tim Wright can perform outside the red zone on a consistent basis. On defense, as long as Revis stays healthy, I think we have the depth to remain a very good unit even if we were to lose a key piece.

Knock on wood, but the Patriots have been extremely fortunate on the injury front this year when it comes to the offense.

Bobs My Uncle · Dec 16, 2014

I worry most about the OL and whether it can protect Brady.

Next I worry about facing a defense that can contain Gronk and Jules because I am not confident in the rest of the skill players being able to step up and produce enough.

ashley · Dec 16, 2014

I think a team that can rush the passer, a team that has a good tight end, a team that can control the clock and run the ball, and a team that is well coached. Those would be some of the things that would be concerning to me come playoff time.

Bradyking12 · Dec 16, 2014

If an alien from outer space abducts brady before the big game

supafly · Dec 16, 2014

SVN said:
2011/12 they had a bye and lost at home to the ravens after ravens beat the team with the HFA -denver. Iam not saying HFA is unimportant. You always want HFA , the biggest reason for which is you need to win 2 games instead of 3 to get to the SB. All I meant was it doesnt gurantee anything .

Certainly not meaning to come off as argumentative, as I agree that there are no guarantees, but your aforementioned 2011/12 season (actually they went to the SB that year, so you're thinking of the next year, which would be 2012) was still one of the 7 out of 8 examples that I provided where they went to the AFCCG or SB.

Unfortunately, they aren't going to win the AFCCG every time, but in 7/8 times they've had a first round bye in the Belichick era, they've at least gone to the conference title game or better.

As you mentioned, the best reason I can think of is that it raises the odds by allowing the team to only have to win once to go to the conference title game--and even that AFCCG is often played at home. The 2 weeks of preparation and rest are also very key.

In the end, I think it's a lot of luck as well. Anytime you have a grouping of teams like NE, DEN, GB, SEA etc you're going to need some good breaks, particularly in a one-game winner takes all format where any of those teams can easily beat the other.

IcyPatriot · Dec 16, 2014

Health ... we should have 5 right now instead of 6 ... and maybe even 6 if we had not lost Brady for a year. We went 11-5 without him ... that was a real good team.

What is the biggest obstacle to SB win #4 for the Pats?

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