Idle thoughts - the differential edition

Oswlek · Dec 16, 2014

Rob0729 said:
So when Gray had 2.3 yards per carry vs. Denver that is indicative of him? You are talking about a guy with 83 career rushes. We cannot make definitive statements about him.

And saying the sample size isn't a good argument, Laurence Maroney says hello. Look at his production his rookie season vs. the rest of his career. Funny, the PFW guys are making the same argument right now on PFW in progress.

And we can make a definite statement about Gray in one rush in the Packers' game?

Funny, the PFW guys are making the same argument right now on PFW in progress.

Honestly, I think this does more to discredit your position than support it, but maybe that's just me.

I'm not sure what Maroney has to do with anything, since I've made no proclamations as to how Gray's career will go from here. Maroney demonstrated ability and rightly was promoted to starter by week 10 before injuries derailed his rookie season and, ultimately, his career. If Gray gets hurt and has rocks in his head it won't surprise me in the least if he fizzles out. That comparison is irrelevant, at best, and misleading at worst.

The fact that their running styles are about as opposite as can be shouldn't pass by unstated as well.

That we can't state with certainty how good Gray will be has nothing to do with the fact that he has been NE's most impressive runner. You continue to make tangential arguments instead of just addressing that statement.

Oswlek · Dec 16, 2014

Rob0729 said:
I will agree with that. But that doesn't mean he is good enough to take the role that BJGE had her his last year. BJGE almost never made a negative play. Almost always got positive yards. I don't know if Gray can do that.

Only time will tell, but the early returns are promising.

FWIW, Benny's lack of negative plays is overstated. He rarely lost big yardage, and he did have a knack for falling forward when tackled, but he was stuffed on short yardage regularly, particularly in key moments. How much blame the OL takes for that is debatable, of course.

Oswlek · Dec 16, 2014

You have a backer in Tedy Bruschi, Rob (pun intended)

It's been a progression, from nothing, to a sprinkling, to yesterday (most carries he's had since Indy game). This is a young player. Right now, I personally like to see LeGarrette Blount in there. The role Gray is playing now, from my view, followers should be happy with.

I don't agree, but that is a decent feather for your cap.

Kdo5 · Dec 16, 2014

I'm not saying Jonas is better than Blount. But I tire of people not wanting to give him more carries (not necessarily more than Blount) but his fair share. On the field, Jonas has been impressive and productive. He hits the hole harder than Blount and gets just as much (if not more) yards after contact than him.

Blount is good but certainly not leagues better than Gray. Blount is a patient runner but he tip toes too much to where he gets stuffed more frequently. I like Blount as a guy who can destroy a softened defense. He is more likely to hit the home run once he gets to the second level (as was the case w/him and Ridley) but I see no reason why we can't have Jonas as more of a compliment to Blount. Fresher legs is for the best. Just look at last year and the sharing of duties.

DaBruinz · Dec 16, 2014

Rob0729 said:
Consistently done better? He ran a lot in the Chicago game (mostly in garbage time) and got yards (17 carries for 86 yards although he did run better early in the game than later in the game). He ran slightly less in the Denver game (again mostly in garbage time) and got 33 yards on 12 carries. He exploded in the Colts' game. But other than that, he has never carried more than 3 times in a game. We are talking four games where he carried the rock over 10 times and in three a large portion of his carries were in garbage time.

And Miami did not have their front seven at the end of the game. Wake was out and Shelby was in for him. The LBs were the same because they had 4 LBs inactive including two starters. But even if all the starters were in, do you really think they were going full force down 28 points with a little more than 2 minutes left in the game when the drive started?

Again, I don't think the Pats should bench Gray. I think he should be in the mix. I just don't get all the people saying he should be the lead back and killing the Pats for not giving him a lionshare of the carries. People point to his YPC as why they should have him start over Blount but fail to mention that Blount had 6.5 YPC vs. Detriot (12 carries for 78 yards) and 5.8 YPC vs. GB (10 for 58 yards). He only struggled to get big YPC vs. San Diego (where we have no idea if Gray would have been more effective) and Miami.

You know what is so disingenuous about you, Rob. You ignore that Blount had only 2 good runs against Detroit. One for 33 yards and one for 23 yards. You want to ignore Gray's 14 yard carry, but if you do the same, you see that Blount only had 10 carries for 32 yards.. Oh, and 8 of Blount's carries in Detroit came in "Garbage" time..

Blount had carries of 13,13, and 12 in the GB game. So that leaves 7 for 20.

See, we can all play the "let's make excuses" game like you want people to do with Gray.

BTW, you are FOS regarding where most of Gray's carries came in the Chicago game. 14 of his carries came in the 1st half..

In Denver, only 5 of his carries came in garbage time..

Kdo5 · Dec 16, 2014

DaBruinz said:
You know what is so disingenuous about you, Rob. You ignore that Blount had only 2 good runs against Detroit. One for 33 yards and one for 23 yards. You want to ignore Gray's 14 yard carry, but if you do the same, you see that Blount only had 10 carries for 32 yards.. Oh, and 8 of Blount's carries in Detroit came in "Garbage" time..

Blount had carries of 13,13, and 12 in the GB game. So that leaves 7 for 20.

See, we can all play the "let's make excuses" game like you want people to do with Gray.

BTW, you are FOS regarding where most of Gray's carries came in the Chicago game. 14 of his carries came in the 1st half..

In Denver, only 5 of his carries came in garbage time..

Totally with you. This is the part that Gray detractors gloss over. Many of Blount's runs that go for big chunks are late in games where we all but have it won.

Rob0729 · Dec 16, 2014

DaBruinz said:
You know what is so disingenuous about you, Rob. You ignore that Blount had only 2 good runs against Detroit. One for 33 yards and one for 23 yards. You want to ignore Gray's 14 yard carry, but if you do the same, you see that Blount only had 10 carries for 32 yards.. Oh, and 8 of Blount's carries in Detroit came in "Garbage" time..

Blount had carries of 13,13, and 12 in the GB game. So that leaves 7 for 20.

See, we can all play the "let's make excuses" game like you want people to do with Gray.

BTW, you are FOS regarding where most of Gray's carries came in the Chicago game. 14 of his carries came in the 1st half..

In Denver, only 5 of his carries came in garbage time..

I just looked at the total stats and not the individual stats for Blount. I was wrong. I should have looked at them further. But I can't remember those individual runs because not all individual runs are the same. Gray ran through a huge hole and wasn't touched. If Blount was the same then it is apples to apples. But if Blount bounded off blockers and made a 5 yard run into a 23 yard run, it isn't the same.

And a game with 23 and 32 yard runs is far greater than a 14 yard run in a game. And having three runs over 10 yards is better than getting one yard over 10 yards. More to the point that Blount is more likely to get the big runs.

And the other two games, the Bears game helps your argument and the Broncos game hurts it. He was good vs. the Bears and sucked vs. the Broncos.

Gray is a decent back thus far. Nothing special. I still think he is behind Blount. We are arguing about a guy who probably wouldn't see the field that much or at all on at least a third to half the teams in the league.

Rob0729 · Dec 16, 2014

Kdo5 said:
Totally with you. This is the part that Gray detractors gloss over. Many of Blount's runs that go for big chunks are late in games where we all but have it won.

But Blount is a home run hitter and Gray is more of an on base guy. Gray may get positive yards more often than Blount because he is an one cut runner while Blount likes to let holes develop and may not hit the hole right off the bat, but Blount is more likely to get more runs over 10-20 yards.

Oswlek · Dec 16, 2014

Rob0729 said:
sucked vs. the Broncos.

I thought he was good against Denver and said so immediately afterward. Their run defense is terrific and NE didn't open up any holes. Gray got all that was there and then a little extra.

The numbers sucked, but that's never been my point even when I can find supporting data.

Rob0729 said:
But Blount is a home run hitter and Gray is more of an on base guy. Gray may get positive yards more often than Blount because he is an one cut runner while Blount likes to let holes develop and may not hit the hole right off the bat, but Blount is more likely to get more runs over 10-20 yards.

I don't agree with this, though I might be inclined if you change it to 30-40 yards. Gray is equally capable of getting to double digits, he just isn't as likely to rumble for a 50 yarder.

Even if I grant that to you, though, do you want the guy who might get a TD on any down, but who is certain to put you in 2nd and long on half of his carries? Or the guy who puts you in 2nd and 6 most of the time even if he's no threat to do much more than hit a 15 yarder? That is an easy call for me with Brady, though I might reconsider if NE was going through the QB shuffle like Arizona and Houston are.

Oh and this is being generous to LaGarrette.

Blount likes to let holes develop and may not hit the hole right off the bat

I seem to recall fans having a different description when Maroney did this. What was that again?

Kdo5 · Dec 16, 2014

Rob0729 said:
But Blount is a home run hitter and Gray is more of an on base guy. Gray may get positive yards more often than Blount because he is an one cut runner while Blount likes to let holes develop and may not hit the hole right off the bat, but Blount is more likely to get more runs over 10-20 yards.

I want to see the guy consistently getting positive yards early in the game. Someone who can keep drives going. I like Gray in that area.

Idle thoughts - the differential edition

Oswlek

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Oswlek

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Oswlek

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Kdo5

Pro Bowl Player

DaBruinz

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Kdo5

Pro Bowl Player

Rob0729

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Rob0729

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Oswlek

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

Kdo5

Pro Bowl Player

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