Idle thoughts - the differential edition

Patriot Missile · Dec 15, 2014

patfanken said:
a couple of comments on the comments:

1. One of the most impressive things about the Pats record this year is the quality of their opponents. When was the last time the Pats played an opponent who WASN'T above .500. I think it was the KC game.

2 This reminds me a bit of the 2003 season. A very underrated team who accomplished something I don't think any team has come close to. That team won TEN game (including the playoffs and repeats) against teams that won at least 10 games

3. Before the mediots anoint the Seahawks defense as the next incarnation of the 1985 Bears think about this, whose great offense have they played?

They play in a division that included the Niners (who don't have much in the way of Receivers and a limited and flawed QB), the Rams (who are on their #2 QB) and the Cardinals (who are on their #3 QB) They also got to play the Eagles led by their #2 (Sanchez) The Giants when Eli was truly horrible. Against Washington led by a revealed RGIII A bad Carolina team who they beat despite scoring jusr 13 points. They beat Oakland with a rookie QB and gave up 24 points. Their ONLY 2 wins against good offenses (vs Denver and GB) came within the first 3 games of the season, or as we have come to know it, as the post pre-season part of the year.

Their 4 loses cam against KC, SD, and Dallas - 3 teams that have decent offenses, but not great ones, and their other loss came vs the Shaun Hill led losing record Rams. All those winning teams scored at least 24 points (2 scored 30)

There is no question the Seahawks have a very good defense, one of the best in the league, but before they ascend to Olympus we should consider who they played. They've had a lot of good fortune in who and when they've played them. I respect their D, I don't fear them. The Pats D has a better record when playing against quality offenses. Just something to think about.

4. Another thing to think about, is that the only team in the league who has a worse passing attack than the NJ Jets are the Seattle Seahawks.

5. IMHO the Bills did us a huge favor if the Packers are knocked out of the playoffs because they lost homefield advantage. I think they are a more dangerous potential opponent than Seattle.

Completely agree Ken. I'd take Seattle over Green Bay if there actually was a choice. Revis,Browner,McCourty and crew make the WR crew from Seattle invisible IMO. Stop Lynch and Keeping Wilson in the pocket becomes game plan A#1.

Revis and secondary put the clamps on Jordy and Cobb and still the QB beats them with Adams and one slant to Nelson. However if their were a matchup I think they win because the Patriots are going to run the ball right down their throats next time and get 2 TE doses all game.

SVN · Dec 15, 2014

Ice_Ice_Brady said:
I agree I think Cincy will beat Denver. Denver is definitely the better team- their defense is really underrated and among the league's best- but Cincy is playing for their season. The reality is a win or loss probably won't make a difference for Denver. They can lose one more and would still keep the the 2 seed. The Patriots may lose again but it isn't likely. I see Cincy showing up with all of their ammo for this one, and I could see Denver just packing in it if they get behind.

Cincy playing for their season and them showing up are really not related. Putting faith in Dalton and lewis in this game is a recipe for failure. Unless denver plays like crap, they will win this.
Every week everyone says "denver has a chance to lose this game".. for a while during the game it looks like that but doesnt turn out that way often.

Oswlek · Dec 15, 2014

patfanken said:
3. Before the mediots anoint the Seahawks defense as the next incarnation of the 1985 Bears think about this, whose great offense have they played?

They held Denver down back when their offense looked legit, though I don't think anyone tries to make the case that they've been great all year. It's more of a, "Hey now! Look who's getting frisky in the Northwest!" type deal.

By that token, your point is even more germane, because the four games they've returned to form were against Zona, SF, Sanchez and SF again. Philly can do some things, but Sanchez folds at the first line of resistance. Otherwise, that is a great that any competent defense should keep under control.

Joey007 · Dec 15, 2014

tombonneau said:
I'm fine with it. You have to look at the aggregate body of work. What people don't see is all the successful plays he has away from the ball because of that same physical style.

Give me a whole lotta good with a little bad.

Ironically, that style caused an INT today on a play where BB easily could have been flagged for getting there early.

But he did also allow a 25 yard pass interference play. That is not "little." It's okay to grab a bit and get a few holding calls, but the deep PI plays should not happen. I love Browner's intensity he's given this defense, though, so hopefully he'll work on this.

Oswlek · Dec 15, 2014

Joey007 said:
But he did also allow a 25 yard pass interference play.

An inexcusable call.... for the ref to make.

If that was DPI, then there is DPI on ~60% of all passes thrown in every game every week. You can't hold that against Browner, who actually got away with substantially more contact on Chung's pick. So even if you do charge Brandon with that penalty, the interception by itself outweighed it.

Joey007 · Dec 15, 2014

Oswlek said:
An inexcusable call.... for the ref to make.

If that was DPI, then there is DPI on ~60% of all passes thrown in every game every week. You can't hold that against Browner, who actually got away with substantially more contact on Chung's pick. So even if you do charge Brandon with that penalty, the interception by itself outweighed it.

Well, there's just seemed to be a lot of killer penalties on Browner this year. Especially on 3rd downs. Plays like them can cost you games in the playoffs.

mosi · Dec 15, 2014

mayoclinic said:
I believe Dallas wins HFA by winning their next 2 games against Indy and @Washington. They have the rushing game and OL to pound Indy and keep Andrew Luck off the field. GB could win out and still end up as only the #3 seed. I know it's hard to take the Cowboys seriously, but their OL is a big weapon in playoff situations, and they are 7-0 on the road if they have to go that route.

The only way they win HFA (#1 seed) is if they finish with a better record than anyone else or there is a 2 way tie with Seattle for the best record. Otherwise, they drop to #3.

Oswlek · Dec 15, 2014

Joey007 said:
Well, there's just seemed to be a lot of killer penalties on Browner this year. Especially on 3rd downs. Plays like them can cost you games in the playoffs.

Sure, but even including those penalties, Browner's needle still leans prohibitively positive. There's a reason why he plays every snap.

mosi · Dec 15, 2014

On a side note, I was impressed at the way the Miami players hit Gronk on those seam routes - way higher than that POS Ward...

tombonneau · Dec 15, 2014

Joey007 said:
Well, there's just seemed to be a lot of killer penalties on Browner this year. Especially on 3rd downs. Plays like them can cost you games in the playoffs.

That's the thing, people just see a lot of penalties, but there has not been any killer penalty that has cost the team anything.

I know it's tough conceptually for us as fans to swallow, but you have to remember, Seattle was the most penalized team in the league last year. It's easy to mentally quantify the penalty yards and the cost to the team, but it's much more difficult to understand and conceptualize the value that that physical play has throughout the course of a game.

Just take one look at Manning's face when he walked off the field in last year's Super Bowl or this year's Pats game, and that's the value of a few DPIs and illegal contacts. I'll take it every time.

1960Pats · Dec 16, 2014

rlcarr said:
The music and resulting inability to talk with seatmates about the game is what I hate most about going to games (well, maybe the ticket prices come first ).

Everything else was perfect. The Pats/NFL must have done a study and found out that fans are more likely to drink if they have loud music pounded into their heads. My ears are still ringing.

Patsfanin Philly · Dec 16, 2014

mosi said:
The only way they win HFA (#1 seed) is if they finish with a better record than anyone else or there is a 2 way tie with Seattle for the best record. Otherwise, they drop to #3.

Don't sleep on Dallas for one reason, their ability to win n the road. They are 7-0 away from Jerry world and if you look at history, teams that are 7-1 or 8-0 on the road have a good chance of making it to the Super Bowl.HFA to them might be a disadvantage...

RobertWeathers · Dec 16, 2014

Patsfanin Philly said:
Don't sleep on Dallas for one reason, their ability to win n the road. They are 7-0 away from Jerry world and if you look at history, teams that are 7-1 or 8-0 on the road have a good chance of making it to the Super Bowl.HFA to them might be a disadvantage...

It will be interesting to see how Murray does after his hand surgery. Obviously breaking a bone in the hand is not a good injury for a RB to have.

Funny- their top pass rusher is Jeremy Mincey. Hes carved out a nice career for himself.

mosi · Dec 16, 2014

Patsfanin Philly said:
Don't sleep on Dallas for one reason, their ability to win n the road. They are 7-0 away from Jerry world and if you look at history, teams that are 7-1 or 8-0 on the road have a good chance of making it to the Super Bowl.HFA to them might be a disadvantage...

I am not. I hate to say it, but they almost remind me of the 2007 Giants. That team only lost 1 road game and were road tested all the way to the final game. With that said, I could see Dallas losing next week to Indy, which would could end up knocking them out of the playoffs...

Oswlek · Dec 16, 2014

mosi said:
I am not. I hate to say it, but they almost remind me of the 2007 Giants. That team only lost 1 road game and were road tested all the way to the final game. With that said, I could see Dallas losing next week to Indy, which would could end up knocking them out of the playoffs...

Other than winning on the road - which screams meaningless small sample size - there isn't much comparison between Dallas and the 2007 Giants. This year's Dallas team is better, but they don't have the LOS advantage that NY did. NE's only real weakness is at OL and depth WR, and Dallas doesn't threaten those areas at all. I'll be surprised if Dallas makes it there, but I'll be even more surprised if they stay within 10 points of the Pats if they meet in the SB.

Jackson 2 · Dec 16, 2014

Joey007 said:
Well, there's just seemed to be a lot of killer penalties on Browner this year. Especially on 3rd downs. Plays like them can cost you games in the playoffs.

No question, but I heard on the radio yesterday that the last 3 SB winners were the teams which led the league in penalties. I know that during the playoffs last year, the refs kept their flags in their pockets when plays occurred which would have drawn flags during the regular season, particularly PIs, holding receivers, illegal use of hands, etc.

RobertWeathers · Dec 16, 2014

Jackson 2 said:
No question, but I heard on the radio yesterday that the last 3 SB winners were the teams which led the league in penalties. I know that during the playoffs last year, the refs kept their flags in their pockets when plays occurred which would have drawn flags during the regular season, particularly PIs, holding receivers, illegal use of hands, etc.

I think thats pretty accurate. It also no coincidence that more often than not teams that are physical defensively play in the Super Bowl.

DaBruinz · Dec 16, 2014

Rob0729 said:
Trust me, you don't want me to bring the Gray stuff from the game day thread and my post game comments thread to this one. Let's just say I still think he is overrated. He had a few good runs today (I felt I could have run for a first down on his 14 yard run though although he did have a good run or two where there was no hole and he bounced it outside), but I still don't know if he is consistent enough to get a lot of carries.

So, you feel that 10 carries for 48 yards isn't showing consistency.. Got it..

The problem is clearly that you are over-reacting to what people say about Gray. You did it with me and others in the Game Day thread despite it being pointed out to you the difference of what we were saying to what you thought we were saying.

Rob0729 · Dec 16, 2014

DaBruinz said:
So, you feel that 10 carries for 48 yards isn't showing consistency.. Got it..

The problem is clearly that you are over-reacting to what people say about Gray. You did it with me and others in the Game Day thread despite it being pointed out to you the difference of what we were saying to what you thought we were saying.

How many of his carries were in the last drive against a lot of back ups? This is what I am saying. He got 30 of his yards in garbage time when the Dolphins packed it in on the final drive. This is the same thing about people going overboard when Garoppolo came in during garbage time vs. the Chiefs and had a 147.9 QB rating on seven passes (he completed 6 of them for 70 yards and a TD) and people were talking about trading Brady and starting Jimmy G next year.

Gray did some really good things on Sunday, but only on a handful of plays. I will judge him like I did Jimmy G in garbage time, it is a promising sign that he can perform well against the back ups but it doesn't mean he is ready to start.

Fencer · Dec 16, 2014

mosi said:
On a side note, I was impressed at the way the Miami players hit Gronk on those seam routes - way higher than that POS Ward...

Put that together with the Dolphins' praise for the Pats not being a dirty team, and it seems there's actually a bit of sportsmanship in the AFC East.

That said, I still chuckle about the time Brady got a vote for NFL's dirtiest player, and by common consensus it was said to come from Jason Taylor ...

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