Sub is the New Base: An Update

From Reiss' Quick Hits today:

1. With cornerback Darrelle Revis as the centerpiece, the Patriots are deeper, more talented and healthier in the secondary this late in the season than at any point I can remember in Bill Belichick’s prior 14 seasons as head coach. That’s been a key because of 420 defensive snaps played over the last six games, the Patriots have been in sub packages (which call for at least one extra player in the secondary) a staggering 377 times. That means they were only in their base or goal-line defense on just 43 snaps over the last six games. Think about that for a moment. We often refer to a defense as a base 3-4 or base 4-3, but teams like the Patriots are in those packages less frequently than ever. Sub is the new base.

Patriots 2014 defensive packages Sub: 661 of 898 (73.6 percent)
Base: 227 of 898 (25.2 percent)
Heavy: 10 of 898 (1.1 percent)

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http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-...151/quick-hit-thoughts-around-nfl-patriots-37

Nothing new, except for how high the percentages have climbed. With almost 75% of the snaps out of sub, "base" really is becoming less and less important. Andy Johnson has already speculated that a major goal on defense is being able to stop the run out of the "sub". It's something to think about in terms of draft and FA players who might fit, and contract priorities.

It certainly makes sense, but you have to wonder about the fact that the team has ranked in the top scoring units since 2010:

• 2010 - 1
• 2011 - 3
• 2012 - 1
• 2013 - 3
• 2014 - 3

Scoring many points dictates your opponents' run vs. pass strategy. If you stop scoring so much, then opponents will run on your defense more frequently (statistically speaking). See 2007 for the effect of high-scoring on other statistics. We ranked #2 in the NFL in total sacks, and even the lumbering Mike Vrabel tallied 12.5 sacks. The "Nickel" as the new "Base" likely continues to prevail, even with an average scoring team, but the trend is certainly helped by a strong scoring unit.

Linebackers on the 53
By the count of players on the 53, as a position, linebackers may have suffered the most. Granted, we have a number of LBs now (but not at the start of the season...nor the last few seasons), historically we have carried close to 8-9 linebackers (granted with the 3-4 of course). The NEP front-office may strategically be acquiring higher-draft pick linebackers in the vein of carrying fewer, high quality LBs. This strategy enables the team to stock additional defensive backs. Entering the season, we had who? Mayo, Hightower, Collins, Beauharnis, JAG? Last year was maybe 6.

patriot lifer said:

Linebackers on the 53
By the count of players on the 53, as a position, linebackers may have suffered the most. Granted, we have a number of LBs now (but not at the start of the season...nor the last few seasons), historically we have carried close to 8-9 linebackers (granted with the 3-4 of course). The NEP front-office may strategically be acquiring higher-draft pick linebackers in the vein of carrying fewer, high quality LBs. This strategy enables the team to stock additional defensive backs. Entering the season, we had who? Mayo, Hightower, Collins, Beauharnis, JAG? Last year was maybe 6.

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If you consider the players on IR, and consider guys who can play a DE/OLB role in sub packages, then we have Mayo/Hightower/Collins/Casillas + Jones/Ninkovich/Ayers/Buchanan. We also have at least 4 guys capable of playing a hybrid LB/S role: Chung, Wilson, Ebner and Casillas. So there's a lot of diversity with a relatively small group of players.

mayoclinic said:

If you consider the players on IR, and consider guys who can play a DE/OLB role in sub packages, then we have Mayo/Hightower/Collins/Casillas + Jones/Ninkovich/Ayers/Buchanan. We also have at least 4 guys capable of playing a hybrid LB/S role: Chung, Wilson, Ebner and Casillas. So there's a lot of diversity with a relatively small group of players.

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I don't count the injured players. Although, I think your point on the hybrid nature of some players is a very good one. It's another way to carry fewer pure linebackers in order to buoy the count of DBs on the 53.

Here is a partial quote from Ty Schalter, Bleacher Report's NFL National Lead Writer.

"Already, defensive coordinators are moving toward complex, hybridized, symmetrical alignments that give them maximum flexibility in coverage (and create maximum confusion).

That pretty well sums up the Pats defense.

I don't think they played a consecutive down in the same personnel today. I tried to keep track of who was where in the first half, particularly the linebackers and gave up after a couple of drives. In the first drive alone I think I saw Cha. Jones, Ayers, Hightower and Collins playing on the right EDGE although Collins might have been playing WILL. I saw Hightower being preferred to Ayers at ROLB in a base 3-4 and Jones, Wilfork, Ayers playing in a 3 man front with Nink and Hightower playing OLB. I think I also saw Ayers play at least one snap at MLB.

Canuck said:

Here is a partial quote from Ty Schalter, Bleacher Report's NFL National Lead Writer "Already, defensive coordinators are moving toward complex, hybridized, symmetrical alignments that give them maximum flexibility in coverage (and create maximum confusion)

That pretty well sums up the Pats defense.

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The article that you mentioned is a great read, and well worth reading in full. Here's the link:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2117320-are-hybrid-defensive-fronts-the-future-of-nfl-defenses

manxman2601 said:

I don't think they played a consecutive down in the same personnel today. I tried to keep track of who was where in the first half, particularly the linebackers and gave up after a couple of drives. In the first drive alone I think I saw Cha. Jones, Ayers, Hightower and Collins playing on the right EDGE although Collins might have been playing WILL. I saw Hightower being preferred to Ayers at ROLB in a base 3-4 and Jones, Wilfork, Ayers playing in a 3 man front with Nink and Hightower playing OLB. I think I also saw Ayers play at least one snap at MLB.

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The game wasn't broadcast in my area, and I've only seen parts of it so far. I can't wait to check this out.

manxman2601 said:

I don't think they played a consecutive down in the same personnel today.

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This kind of flexibility is great. However, it is difficult to run against a team that runs the hurry-up, not allowing you to substitute.

According to Reiss, the Pats have spent more time in sub defense than base defense every year beginning in 2009, when it was 50% sub to 43% base.

Its been at least a 2:1 ratio since 2011.

And now its a 4:1 ratio, sub to "base."

Which makes the yearly 3-4/4-3 discussion/speculation threads somewhat perplexing.

manxman2601 said:

I don't think they played a consecutive down in the same personnel today. I tried to keep track of who was where in the first half, particularly the linebackers and gave up after a couple of drives. In the first drive alone I think I saw Cha. Jones, Ayers, Hightower and Collins playing on the right EDGE although Collins might have been playing WILL. I saw Hightower being preferred to Ayers at ROLB in a base 3-4 and Jones, Wilfork, Ayers playing in a 3 man front with Nink and Hightower playing OLB. I think I also saw Ayers play at least one snap at MLB.

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From Mark Daniels at ProJo:

Chandler Jones played his first game with the Patriots in nearly two months on Sunday and didn’t miss a beat. ... Jones ended up playing 56 defensive snaps. Jones was seen on the edge, inside over the guard and even as the nose tackle.

Jones’ return to the lineup allowed the Patriots to mix and match with him, Akeem Ayers, Hightower and Rob Ninkovich.

Whenever Jones lined up inside one of those three players, there was usually some type of stunt that came when the ball was snapped. For example, when Jones returned to the field, on the Dolphins’ second drive, he lined up on the inside of Ninkovich. When the ball was snapped, Ninkovich stunted by running behind Jones in an attempt to disrupt the guard, who was already occupied by Jones.

This drive was a good example of how many different things the Patriots can do with Jones back on the field. After lining up on the inside of Ninkovich, he moved to the left edge and stopped Miller. On the next two plays he was on the inside of Ayers, who stunted before rushing the first time and then dropped back in coverage the next.

On the third Miami drive, Jones was seen lining up inside of Hightower before making a solo tackle on Miller.

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http://www.providencejournal.com/sp...-return-opens-up-a-world-of-possibilities.ece

I wonder if you see defenses with two down dt's. Then, have 3-4 lb types who can run. Kind of like what we're doing. Then, your secondary. That 4-3 DE who is 6-6" 275lb who isn't versatile may not be as valuable as a guy like Ninkovich who can handle multiple roles. It's really easy for a decent qb to get the ball off from outside pressure. They just step up and the T pushes the edge-rusher by. Those Ngata/Wilfork types pushing the OL back and allowing inside blitzes or stunts seem to bother the better qb's more.

patsfaninpa said:

I wonder if you see defenses with two down dt's. Then, have 3-4 lb types who can run. Kind of like what we're doing. Then, your secondary. That 4-3 DE who is 6-6" 275lb who isn't versatile may not be as valuable as a guy like Ninkovich who can handle multiple roles. It's really easy for a decent qb to get the ball off from outside pressure. They just step up and the T pushes the edge-rusher by. Those Ngata/Wilfork types pushing the OL back and allowing inside blitzes or stunts seem to bother the better qb's more.

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That's why I'm such a fan of Terry Williams

patsfaninpa said:

I wonder if you see defenses with two down dt's. Then, have 3-4 lb types who can run. Kind of like what we're doing. Then, your secondary. That 4-3 DE who is 6-6" 275lb who isn't versatile may not be as valuable as a guy like Ninkovich who can handle multiple roles. It's really easy for a decent qb to get the ball off from outside pressure. They just step up and the T pushes the edge-rusher by. Those Ngata/Wilfork types pushing the OL back and allowing inside blitzes or stunts seem to bother the better qb's more.

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manxman2601 said:

That's why I'm such a fan of Terry Williams

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I think that a DT who can stop the run from sub and push the pocket is exceptionally valuable, especially if they can also get penetration. That's why guys like Eddie Goldman and Malcolm Brown are so appealing.

mayoclinic said:

I think that a DT who can stop the run from sub and push the pocket is exceptionally valuable, especially if they can also get penetration. That's why guys like Eddie Goldman and Malcolm Brown are so appealing.

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Yup. But it's also nice when they can do that at 350 lbs plus

manxman2601 said:

Yup. But it's also nice when they can do that at 350 lbs plus

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If Williams can do that at 350# I'd be surprised. Ngata is really the only guy who can do that, and he and Wilfork both were noticeably quicker at a lower weight (though Ngata wore down when he tried to play at a lower weight). IIRC, Williams has played between 350# and 320#, and there was some thought that he was much more effective at a lower weight.

Williams is high on my day 3 list, and I know some have touted him as a 1st round talent, but I'm a little skeptical that he can maintain quickness and penetration at 350#.

mayoclinic said:

If Williams can do that at 350# I'd be surprised. Ngata is really the only guy who can do that, and he and Wilfork both were noticeably quicker at a lower weight (though Ngata wore down when he tried to play at a lower weight). IIRC, Williams has played between 350# and 320#, and there was some thought that he was much more effective at a lower weight.

Williams is high on my day 3 list, and I know some have touted him as a 1st round talent, but I'm a little skeptical that he can maintain quickness and penetration at 350#.

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I take it you haven't watched his tape then . It's his quickness that defines him.

manxman2601 said:

I take it you haven't watched his tape then . It's his quickness that defines him.

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I've watched some - there's not a ton of tape out there. My question is more whether he really playing at 350# there? I'll want to see how he weighs in and performs at Combine/pro days.

The Pats have been playing sub around 89% of the time in the last 6 games, and I think that the more general point is that you want a DT who can both stop the run, push the pocket and generate some penetration while in sub.

mayoclinic said:

I've watched some - there's not a ton of tape out there. My question is more whether he really playing at 350# there? I'll want to see how he weighs in and performs at Combine/pro days.

The Pats have been playing sub around 89% of the time in the last 6 games, and I think that the more general point is that you want a DT who can both stop the run, push the pocket and generate some penetration while in sub.

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I was playing with you a little. Looking at the size of him, I think he looks every part of 350lbs. It's not his quickness and ability to get penetration that concerns me, it's his ability to take on double teams and still contribute.

manxman2601 said:

I was playing with you a little. Looking at the size of him, I think he looks every part of 350lbs. It's not his quickness and ability to get penetration that concerns me, it's his ability to take on double teams and still contribute.

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Jared Stanger of Fieldgulls did a nice defensive tackle breakdown, with some film of Williams:

http://www.fieldgulls.com/2014/11/13/7213381/2015-nfl-draft-jareds-gems-defensive-tackle

He notes that Williams played closer to 320# last season, and was noticeably quicker. I haven't looked at 2013 vs. 2014 film in detail. I have little doubt about Williams' ability to take on double teams, but I'm not 100% convinced that a 350# NT is the best fit for a defense that runs 75-80% out of sub. I don't know the answer at this point, and Williams is high on my watch list, but I'm probably leaning more towards a Goldman/Brown kind of DT, if they are available.