The value of Shane Vereen/Stevan Ridley

I'm kinda conflicted on the subject of Vereen's value - especially as he is due to be a FA as the end of this season.

I know people often over-react when evaluating their own guys - but Vereen seems to go down with first contact about 98% of the time - the TD run yesterday, however, was excellent.

For a guy that is effectively a scat back - he has inconsistent hands and you rarely see him beat guys straight up with ankle breaking jukes - which is what i'd expect from a guy that cannot run up the middle - even against light fronts.

Also factor in his injury history and you have a guy who is pretty underwhelming most if the time.

Stevan Ridley has been pretty unlucky in his career to date - issues with fumbles coupled with a coach who has nuclear levels of intolerance to fumbling led to a loss in playing time - the injury this year has further lowered his value on the open market.

I do love the way Ridley runs - with authority and power - I think he is mostly under-rated.

Which RB should we keep? Which RB will get more FA attention?

I've been a big Vereen fan since he was drafted, and I fully expected the team to retain him with a 3yr $7mm type of contract, but this hasn't been the best walk year for him. He is almost completely valueless as a runner and NE isn't even utilizing his receiver skills much. It's basically just a bunch of wheel routes.

Barring it being mostly on the OL or White being a complete whiff - both of which seem possible at this point - Shane isn't going to get much of an offer this off season.

Oswlek said:

I've been a big Vereen fan since he was drafted, and I fully expected the team to retain him with a 3yr $7mm type of contract, but this hasn't been the best walk year for him. He is almost completely valueless as a runner and NE isn't even utilizing his receiver skills much. It's basically just a bunch of wheel routes.

Barring it being mostly on the OL or White being a complete whiff - both of which seem possible at this point - Shane isn't going to get much of an offer this off season.

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Vereen seems to be suffering from "Pat Chung syndrome". Chung, going into his 2012 contract year, had 3 decent years of production and was playing for his 2nd contract. He fell apart due to a combination of injuries, misuse, a poor surrounding cast, and possibly confidence issues.

Vereen has been a solid 3rd down back with injury issues for 3 years. He was expected to make a leap this year. He hasn't. His running seems to have regressed somewhat, and it's hard to tell if that's due mostly to his own issues, or to the OL. There have been some nice flashes (the Cincinnati game in particular), and a lot of really uninspired running. He's been a disappointment, and I've also been a big Vereen fan since he was at Cal. I wish I knew why he seems to have regressed (just as I'd like to know why Tim Wright isn't being used more).

My best guess at this point is that either Vereen gets resigned for less than we had previously expected, or that he walks. If he does get the kind of contract you mention, it will be quite interesting, much like Marcus Cannon's recent deal.

I would keep them both. Should be cheap.

I'm with mayo on this and I hope he (Vereen) gets resigned for a reasonable deal (unless someone is willing to overpay him).

As for how he gets used, I'd like to see some of his wheel routes not have him pushed up against the sidelines and keep him in bounds by 10 yards. This would give him more ability to use his athleticism in the open field and I honestly think Brady is better passing into this type of zone. Or heck use him like 70% of other teams and have him running across the middle as the check down.

If he's gone after this season, I won't be upset but I believe there is value and use for him.

Perhaps joining Brady/Edleman in CA this summer would improve his situation/chemistry with Brady.

He looks injured. He doesn't look like he's got the same burst and he's too young to be losing his first step.

patriot1136 said:

I would keep them both. Should be cheap.

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I could see a team like New Orleans making a run at Vereen. He's a great fit for that offense.

the weird thing is, vereen's utilization has gone up every year and is double this year versus last......

this year, he stands to match kevin faulks best year when it comes to offensive production......

it comes down to how Brady values Vereen as the 3rd down back. If there is a comfort level there that is desirable, then they need to try to bring him back......

3rd down backs are funny since certain game plans don't include them unless you fall behind while other game plans have them as the primary back......

look at it this way, every team has regretted letting darren sproles go.......you don't miss 'em and they're not a problem until you don't have one

I don't care for how Vareen sometimes stops running in the middle of a play. I know he's taking a moment to look for an opening or juke a defender, but others seem to be able to do it without taking a break from their pace, like Edelman.

I am definitely a fan of Vereen. He has great vision but the oline doesn't hold blocks long enough for the cutbacks he wants to do. If we gave him twenty legit carries a game(not bogus delays) he consistently produces. Even w/ all of the negative draws he is still averaging 4 yards a carry. Plus, there are not that many backs that get open the way he does. He may not catch the ball as consistently as Woodhead(why didn't we keep him again), but he has had stretches where he looks unstoppable. Its crazy but he may also be our best deep wr.

Ridley is a different story for me. I loved him at LSU and I like his burst but he hasn't developed enough for my taste. After all of this time, he still is barely adequate coming out of the backfield catching passes. Considering his size, he doesn't break nearly enough tackles and I can't stand it when he attempts to run laterally. He hurt his knee running laterally. Maybe his injury will force him to accept the north/south rb he should be.

Retaining or replacing Ridley shouldn't be too hard, but I expect quite a few teams to be interested in Vereen. Rivers and Brees are guys that could use Vereen right now.

what I would like to see happen at the RB/FB/TE position

- bring back vereen
- bring back ridley if he can come back
- bring back gray
- bring back james white
- bring back develin
- let blount go
- sign charles clay
- keep tim wright

gronk
wright
clay
develin
vereen
ridley (or the same kind of back not named blount)
gray
white

I think Charles Clay would be a beast with Brady throwing him the ball and since we like to use OLs as TE's now, we don't need hooman

Here is how I see it. It is hard to be an elite O without a pass catching RB in your lineup. They tend to be safety values that can turn a losing play and salvage it for 5 yards or even a first down if they break a tackle.

Vereen can do this however he is not the play I was hoping he would be. As a 3rd down back he can do a lot of things other 3rd down backs can't (basically line up as a WR) but he has shown inconsistency in what should be his bread and butter. I don't care if he can't run well up the middle. Can't the ball and turn up field. Receiving RBs tend to be the hardest kind of RB to get and are not cheap usually. Also we have no back up for him as I do not believe in White to do the job.

If the Pats do let Vereen go they should make it a point to sign another RB that can catch. Right now I think Vereen is worth judging by his play 3 years 6 M (with 2 million of it incentive based). If he ask for more than you have to let him walk.

As for Ridley... I don't generally value traditional RBs. You can usually get a Grey or Blount or whoever for cheap and it is good enough. If he ask for much more than 1M per year let him walk and use the money on D on OL.

IllegalContact said:

what I would like to see happen at the RB/FB/TE position

- bring back vereen
- bring back ridley if he can come back
- bring back gray
- bring back james white
- bring back develin
- let blount go
- sign charles clay
- keep tim wright

gronk
wright
clay
develin
vereen
ridley (or the same kind of back not named blount)
gray
white

I think Charles Clay would be a beast with Brady throwing him the ball and since we like to use OLs as TE's now, we don't need hooman

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I would rather have Tim Wright who doesn't drop passes over Clay who we saw drop a TD. I know you are saying have both but Clay will cost money we will need for D and we won't need him anyway.

RB - Vereen, Grey, Develin, Gaffney Bolden(sps)
TE - Gronk Wright Hooman(I am sorry I can not bring myself to care about TE3. Get someone cheap who can block and I am happy).

BobDigital said:

I would rather have Tim Wright who doesn't drop passes over Clay who we saw drop a TD. I know you are saying have both but Clay will cost money we will need for D and we won't need him anyway.

RB - Vereen, Grey, Develin, Gaffney Bolden(sps)
TE - Gronk Wright Hooman(I am sorry I can not bring myself to care about TE3. Get someone cheap who can block and I am happy).

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clay won't cost that much, and hooman is a waste of space...he's a 1.4M cap hit next year that can be replaced by a backup OL looking for some playing time

as for gaffney, he's in the same boat as ridley......I don't put much stock in any player who misses their rookie season.......it is a rarity for them to amount to much.

Short of ridley signing for Vet minimum to try and make the team in camp hes gone, Vereen is on the fence for me, there have been times this season where brady gave him a perfect ball and he's dropped it, and his running has been very lack luster.

I honestly could see both of them not coming back

chasa said:

Short of ridley signing for Vet minimum to try and make the team in camp hes gone, Vereen is on the fence for me, there have been times this season where brady gave him a perfect ball and he's dropped it, and his running has been very lack luster.

I honestly could see both of them not coming back

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yeah, 4 years in, Kevin Faulk was a fumbling machine.......he managed to stick around and be effective

if he's good at picking up the blitz, it's a huge value

IllegalContact said:

yeah, 4 years in, Kevin Faulk was a fumbling machine.......he managed to stick around and be effective

if he's good at picking up the blitz, it's a huge value

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This is a different team then the one Faulk was on, Also didn't Faulk play on special teams? I don't recall seeing Vereen or ridley on kick off duty

chasa said:

This is a different team then the one Faulk was on, Also didn't Faulk play on special teams? I don't recall seeing Vereen or ridley on kick off duty

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the league is different when it comes to returns given that 75% of kicks don't get returned, and the pats have amendola and edelman to do punt returns......non issue to me

the biggest thing is to be effective at picking up the blitz with a QB like brady........this was where woodhead was a liability. bringing someone new in stands to compromise what is already a someone tenuous pass protection situation.......

if the pats plan on upgrading the OL, then it is even more important to have the pass pro of a 3rd down back to help breakdowns due to a new OL, and I believe they will be doing some work at the OG position in the offeseason

I see no indication that Belichick values the RB position enough to get involved in a bidding contest for a 4-year veteran in free agency. If there is a market for Vereen or Ridley, they'll be gone and Belichick will start the clock over with a couple of cheap rookies. If there is no market (and there's not much reason to think there will be heavy bidding), then either could return for short money.

It's a little hard to know for sure how Belichick values Vereen. He's been OK as a draw play runner and receiving back, but nothing spectacular. I have no way of evaluating his blitz pickup.

Belichick has Blount, Gray, and White under contract for next year. So he's got something to start building with either way.

100% behind picking up Clay. Very underrated. The AfC east in general has many hidden gems.