NFL Playoff Picture entering Week 15

NFL Playoff Picture entering Week 15

John Morgan

Before the season began the consensus was that the NFC was the stronger conference, but 12 AFC teams have winning records, battling for six playoff spots with only three games left to play. In the NFC the situation is six teams vying for five playoff spot

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Steelers heads are the scariest team. Ravens somewhat scary.

So ready for Manziel to drag the Browns out of the playoffs.

Archeryaddict12 said:

So ready for Manziel to drag the Browns out of the playoffs.

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Would like to see him limp them in, maybe surprise somebody in the wild card round so we can throttle that insolent punk.

Any updates now? How can we secure a bye next week?

MossWelkowski said:

Any updates now? How can we secure a bye next week?

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Just win

Admittedly I haven't watched the Steelers play, but statistically I've noted that they depend heavily on three players on offense:

• Antonio Brown
• Bell
• Heath Miller

Those three players rank 1 to 3 in total receptions. After them, there is a sharp decline to #4. Considering that Revis will almost eliminate Brown, the focus of the NEP defense is isolated to very few players (2). Moreover, Bell may be on fumes by season's end. Not only does he have 242 carries (exclusive of today's game), but he also has 71 receptions.

Again, I haven't seen them play, but this armchair analysis quiets my concerns.

kennyb said:

Steelers heads are the scariest team. Ravens somewhat scary.

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Steelers beat the colts earlier so if they end up winning division we likely wouldn't see them until afc champ

MossWelkowski said:

Any updates now? How can we secure a bye next week?

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By winning. 12-3 with a week to go, and wins over the only 3 teams with only 4 or fewer losses (Indy, Denver and Cincy, which also has a tie) = guaranteed bye. Only Denver could get the #1 over us, by winning out if we lose to Buffalo at home.

Green Bay's loss to Buffalo probably means that Seattle gets HFA if they win out. They'll end up 12-4, and they have already beaten GB and Philly. Dallas winning out would win a tiebreaker with Seattle. The Packers going on the road to Seattle is a much harder task than hosting the NFCCG at Lambeau in January.

That Buffalo game is going to be a real dogfight, I suspect. Their defense really rose up against Green Bay this afternoon. BUT, fortunately New England gets them at Gillette, rather than on the road, so the odds are in the Patriots' favour.

patriot lifer said:

Admittedly I haven't watched the Steelers play, but statistically I've noted that they depend heavily on three players on offense:

• Antonio Brown
• Bell
• Heath Miller

Those three players rank 1 to 3 in total receptions. After them, there is a sharp decline to #4. Considering that Revis will almost eliminate Brown, the focus of the NEP defense is isolated to very few players (2). Moreover, Bell may be on fumes by season's end. Not only does he have 242 carries (exclusive of today's game), but he also has 71 receptions.

Again, I haven't seen them play, but this armchair analysis quiets my concerns.

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Bryant is also an excellent receiver. I think the Steelers are really good, though their secondary seems vulnerable to the deep ball and it's true that they are running Bell into the ground. Still, he has been outstanding until now.

Gwedd said:

That Buffalo game is going to be a real dogfight, I suspect. Their defense really rose up against Green Bay this afternoon. BUT, fortunately New England gets them at Gillette, rather than on the road, so the odds are in the Patriots' favour.

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The Buffalo game against GB illustrates 2 things:

1. How difficult it is to win on the road.

2. How difficult it is for a team like GB to win when they aren't executing perfectly. They are the 2010 Patriots - a team that wins based on perfect QB play and defensive turnovers. The problem is, you have to keep executing perfectly to win that way, and it's much harder to do in the playoffs against better teams who don't make as many mistakes. Aaron Rodgers had 0 TD passes and 2 INTs today, and lost the turnover battle.

Current AFC playoff picture:

1. NE 11-3 (beat Denver, Indy and Cincy)
2. Denver 11-3 if they beat SD, 10-4 if they lose (currently up 9-3) (beat Indy; play @ Cincy next week)
3. Indy 10-4 (lost to NE and Denver; beat Cincy)
4. Cincy 9-4-1 (lost to NE and Indy; hosts Denver next week)
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5. Pittsburgh 9-5 (beat Indy)
6. Baltimore 9-5 (lost to SD)
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7. San Diego 8-6 if they continue to lose to Denver, 9-5 and #5 or 6 if they win (beat Baltimore)
8, Kansas City 8-6 (beat Buffalo; beat San Diego, plays them again week 17 at home; @ Pittsburgh next week)
9. Buffalo 8-6 (lost to KC)
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Realistically, 7-7 Miami, Houston and Cleveland are out

mayoclinic said:

Current AFC playoff picture:

1. NE 11-3 (beat Denver, Indy and Cincy)
2. Denver 11-3 if they beat SD, 10-4 if they lose (currently up 9-3) (beat Indy; play @ Cincy next week)
3. Indy 10-4 (lost to NE and Denver; beat Cincy)
4. Cincy 9-4-1 (lost to NE and Indy; hosts Denver next week)
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5. Pittsburgh 9-5 (beat Indy)
6. Baltimore 9-5 (lost to SD)
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7. San Diego 8-6 if they continue to lose to Denver, 9-5 and #5 or 6 if they win (beat Baltimore)
8. Buffalo 8-6
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Realistically, 7-7 Miami, Houston and Cleveland are out

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Kc out also?

With the Packers loss at Buffalo, Green Bay's probability of being the #1 seed dropped from 30% to 7%
At the same time Arizona's probability of being the #1 seed increased from 50% to 65%
Seattle's chances of being the #1 seed jumped up from 15% to 23%

Falcons loss drops them from a 40% chance of making the playoffs to 25%

As far as the Patriots go, if they keep winning then there is nothing Denver can do to keep the Pats from getting the #1 seed and homefield throughout the playoffs. If the Pats lose, then they need Denver to lose once as well.

Should Denver lose to San Diego, then all the Patriots have to do is win one of their final two games to clinch the number one seed. To put it another way, if the Chargers win today and the Pats beat the Jets next week, then the final game against Buffalo means nothing for the Patriots.

jmt57 said:

To put it another way, if the Chargers win today and the Pats beat the Jets next week, then the final game against Buffalo means nothing for the Patriots.

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Although if some stuff breaks certain ways it might mean either letting the Bills into the playoffs or keeping them out.

Archeryaddict12 said:

Kc out also?

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At 8-6 the Chiefs are in a lot better shape than those 7-7 teams.

Realistically KC needs to win twice, but it won't be easy: they are at Pittsburgh and then home against San Diego. Winning those games would serve the double purpose of giving the Steelers and Chargers a loss.

Archeryaddict12 said:

Kc out also?

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Nope. They're 8-6. Thanks for the correction - I've updated it.

I think it sucks that Manzel will no doubt play here on out and this season for the Browns is on him potentially losing the work that team put in to date.

Start the kid in September and let him grow the year, not now in the middle of a race, that would be very disheartening as a member of that team...