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Idle thoughts - this and that....


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I enjoyed the read. I can't contribute any thing new other than, In Bill We Trust.
 
Of the better NFL LTs:

- Joe Thomas - #3 overall in 2007
- Joe Staley - #28 overall in 2007
- Ryan Clady - #12 overall in 2008
- Duane Brown - #26 overall in 2008
- Jared Veldheer - #69 overall in 2010
- Tyron Smith - #9 overall in 2011

That doesn't include Jake Long (#1 overall in 2008; his likely successor Greg Robinson was #2 overall in 2014), Trent Williams (#4 overall in 2010), Russell Okung (#6 overall in 2010) and Eugene Monroe (#8 overall in 2009). Jason Peters was originally a UDFA, but he's the exception.

Staley and Brown were great finds in the late 1st round, but most tackles taken outside of the top 20 have either ended up as guards (Bryan Bulaga, Riley Reiff, Gabe Carimi) or as busts (Carimi, Derek Sherrod).

Speaking of Sherrod, the Pats had him in for a look, and I still think he could be a good reclamation project. The other guy of interest is former Houston 3rd round pick Brennan Williams, who the Pats had rated very highly in 2013. He had microfracture surgery. The Pats (and several other teams) were reportedly monitoring his physical status closely.

Notice that in the last couple of years, the numbers have climbed in draft position (as RBs have dropped precipitously). The swing is because a LT is critical for a passing game, which is where the league is currently at.

This last draft, which had a ton of talent at skill positions: Robinson at #2, Matthews at #6, Lewan at #11, Zach Martin (probably going to G) at 16, and James at #16 (also probably going to G).
 
Did you know that over the season, we have only given up 5 rushing TDs? Denver was the last team to score a rushing TD against us.
 
Notice that in the last couple of years, the numbers have climbed in draft position (as RBs have dropped precipitously). The swing is because a LT is critical for a passing game, which is where the league is currently at.

This last draft, which had a ton of talent at skill positions: Robinson at #2, Matthews at #6, Lewan at #11, Zach Martin (probably going to G) at 16, and James at #16 (also probably going to G).

I think that Ronnie Stanley, TJ Cummings and La'el Collins all go top-20. Brandon Scherff could slip depending on his arm length and evaluation, but there's a good chance he goes top 20, too. But as Manx has noted on the draft board, if any of them are available in the 20's they should get serious consideration as a trade-up candidate.
 
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On the Cannon thing:

I don't think we fans appreciate how much NFL front office types value a 3rd swing tackle. Marcus Cannon has proven production as a swing tackle and is probably better than many starting tackles. Once I understood the value in the position, I'm not at all surprised that Cannon was resigned. A team would be nuts to not try to keep an adequate swing tackle.

A similar analogy can be made to Arrington. We all said, "say what?" when he was extended. But, the third CB/slot CB is now a starter on NFL teams, playing nickle packages most of the time. Again not surprising Bellichick would pay a third CB.
Cannon is Russ Hochstein in a higher cap era. By the way, as is almost always the case, when the real numbers come out this is not 2 years 9 mill. I would bet that almost 50% of that contract is incentives tied to playing starter level snaps. So if he is a backup he is paid like a backup and if he starts he is paid like a starter.
 
Think about this: If we assume (which is a dangerous thing to do) that Bedard's number of 11 negative plays for Solder is correct. ( Which will include the plays Ingram illegally used hands to his face as a weapon, and any plays that actually might not be his mistake and Bedard wouldn't know, and penalties
) That would mean essentially that Solder won on the other 63 plays the offense ran If Brady was successful 63 of 74 plays he'd be player of the week. Solder does it and he's the first one we think of when we're looking for a thumbs down.

My point is that to my mind we tend to rate our offensive linemen so much differently and unfairly than all the rest of the players. Again, using the faulty PFF numbers, last season, Wendell was routinely criticized as a total failure for allowing just 5% of his snaps result sacks hits or hurries. That's a 95% success rate. Yet if you had a pass rusher who managed even a 10% success rate at creating sacks hits and hurries, he'd make the pro bowl. :eek:

I'm not saying don't criticize him. I want him to do better. In fact, I expect him to do better. Just please acknowledge that you understand the inherent unfairness in how we grade offensive linemen compared to other positions.

While I agree with your assessment of Solder at large I take exception to this analogy. It is not UNFAIR to evaluate OLs in this manner. It is essential to winning that an OL has a far higher degree of success % vs say the 60% pass completion % of a QB. To take this misleading % comparison further, Solder's "loss" rate of only 12% if equaled by the other 4 members of the OL would result in a 5x12= 60% failure rate of the OL in total which would be an unmitigated disaster. (assuming failures did not occur simultaneously)

So, avoid this inherently flawed % comparison & stick to other metrics such as # times Brady sacked this year vs 2013. Even that is potentially misleading because I credit the 2014 TFB for having upped his 37 yr old game by rolling out to avoid sacks and shockingly for Tom actually making plays!
 
While I agree with your assessment of Solder at large I take exception to this analogy. It is not UNFAIR to evaluate OLs in this manner. It is essential to winning that an OL has a far higher degree of success % vs say the 60% pass completion % of a QB. To take this misleading % comparison further, Solder's "loss" rate of only 12% if equaled by the other 4 members of the OL would result in a 5x12= 60% failure rate of the OL in total which would be an unmitigated disaster. (assuming failures did not occur simultaneously)

So, avoid this inherently flawed % comparison & stick to other metrics such as # times Brady sacked this year vs 2013. Even that is potentially misleading because I credit the 2014 TFB for having upped his 37 yr old game by rolling out to avoid sacks and shockingly for Tom actually making plays!
PWP, I never intended to imply that MY analogies had any more validity than the other being used. Its just my off kilter way to point out the inherent poor logic of being used to rate and criticize offensive linemen. We all know that it's possible for the OL to lose every individual battle and still come away with a successful play. Just as its equally true for the OL to win every battle and for a lot different reasons the play fails.

Again it goes back the inherent illogic of trying to rate individual players in a game where so much of a team's success is so interdependent on so many different levels. I know everyone does it, even the coaching staffs themselves. Yet I have to believe that at least the staffs understand how flawed yet necessary pursuit that is. PFF? not so much. ;)
 
If you meant "3 or more", then half of them do. The other three of those each have an aggregate conference record over .500, unlike the AFC East, as does one of the divisions with only 2 teams over .500. So the AFC East, with its aggregate record of .500, seems rather middle-of-the-pack. :)


Which is a FAR cry from the "Tomato Can Division" it is often called.
 
2 additional quick thoughts. There is a very real possibility that the Pats are going to have THREE different receiver catch over 1000 yds this season. Right now Gronk is about 3 yds short, Edelman is about 120 short, and LaFell around 240 Gronk and Julian are locks, and LaFell needs just one 100 yd game to give himself a good shot. There are a few teams who will have 2 guys over 1000, I doubt there will be 3.

I wouldn't have mentioned this if that Brady article in SI hadn't come out, but the fact is, relatively, the Pats have had one of their better seasons injury wise thus far (knock on wood, cross fingers, and every other good luck ritual) I read that there are a lot of Pats going to his guru and working out. I wonder if this could be part of the reason. Or it could be that its just the laws of averages working out. Whatever it is, its working.


But this is my major concern, Ken

I see Celtics 1987 here.

KC Jones used his 5 starters an average of 40+ minutes per game. They had the best talent around, but they were dead by the Finals.

Brady is just throwing to 3 guys, really (plus, Vereen). There is very little depth to that passing attack. One of them goes down and.....poof. I wish there was more ability to work in Amendola and Wright.
 
The thing that drives me effing crazy about the Browner call is the "defenseless receiver" label... The runner has taken 4 steps and turned his body while running (I actually think he sees Browner coming...) and chose to not protect himself in favor of trying to complete the catch.

The DB should not be tasked with determining if a catch is completed after "periods of time" when the ball has reached the receiver (the rules are no longer about "football moves"; they are about a "period of time"): it's the refs job to determine possession, not the DB. Meaning: a clean catch, and this would not be a penalty because the receiver had the ball for a *couple* "periods of time" before contact. You cannot coach players to react to bobbles.
Not only did it look like he saw Browner coming, it looked (to me) as though that was why he didn't hang on to the catch. It looked like a textbook case of hearing footsteps.
 
While I agree with your assessment of Solder at large I take exception to this analogy. It is not UNFAIR to evaluate OLs in this manner. It is essential to winning that an OL has a far higher degree of success % vs say the 60% pass completion % of a QB. To take this misleading % comparison further, Solder's "loss" rate of only 12% if equaled by the other 4 members of the OL would result in a 5x12= 60% failure rate of the OL in total which would be an unmitigated disaster. (assuming failures did not occur simultaneously)

So, avoid this inherently flawed % comparison & stick to other metrics such as # times Brady sacked this year vs 2013. Even that is potentially misleading because I credit the 2014 TFB for having upped his 37 yr old game by rolling out to avoid sacks and shockingly for Tom actually making plays!
If he were a little more durable, I wouldn't mind seeing Vollmer at LT. I remember his rookie year, he had to sub for Matt Light for a couple of games. I think one of them was the Colts and he absolutely dominated Dwight Freeney.
 
But this is my major concern, Ken

I see Celtics 1987 here.

KC Jones used his 5 starters an average of 40+ minutes per game. They had the best talent around, but they were dead by the Finals.

Brady is just throwing to 3 guys, really. There is very little depth to that passing attack. One of them goes down and.....poof. I wish there was more ability to work in Amendola and Wright.

The Pats actually are on track to get nearly 1000 yards from 5 positions:

TE (Gronk) - on pace for 1226 yards receiving
WR1 (Edelman) - on pace for 1088 yards receiving and 1196 yards from scrimmage
WR2 (LaFell) - on pace for 926 yards receiving
RB1 (Ridley-Gray-Blount troika) - these have been used mostly serially; currently on pace for a combined 1091 yards rushing
3rd down back (Vereen) - currently on pace for 930 yards rushing+receiving

I agree I'd like for Amendola and Wright, especially Wright. But it's reasonably diverse. 77 YPG receiving from Gronk, 75 combined from Edelman, 68 yards rushing from the power backs, 58 yards receiving from LaFell and 58 yards combined from Vereen. 336 yards of offensive production from those 5 guys. Not too shabby.
 
The Pats actually are on track to get nearly 1000 yards from 5 positions:

TE (Gronk) - on pace for 1226 yards receiving
WR1 (Edelman) - on pace for 1088 yards receiving and 1196 yards from scrimmage
WR2 (LaFell) - on pace for 926 yards receiving
RB1 (Ridley-Gray-Blount troika) - these have been used mostly serially; currently on pace for a combined 1091 yards rushing
3rd down back (Vereen) - currently on pace for 930 yards rushing+receiving

If you look at the statistics, the Patriots right now are the only team with three receivers at 750+ yards each. Granted, it would be nice if Amendola and Wright and Tyms and Hoomanawanui (and Gray) all got more chances, but compare this with Denver, where Demaryius Thomas and Emanuel Sanders each have 1250+ yards, and then the next is Julius Thomas with just 427. I think I'd rather be in NE's position. (Also note that Shane Vereen is just behind Thomas at 406 yards.)

(And for kicks and LOLs, the leading NYJ receiver, Eric Decker, is 50th in yards, at a whopping 620.)
 
1) Cannon is depth/versatility/insurance/leverage/chip.
-depth....3 tackles deep in a premium position
-versatility......multi-purpose 2 position
-insurance.....Tackle insurance for injury/departure of starter
-leverage.....Patriots demonstration that plan B exists during any Solder negotiation
-chip.........an extra tackle affords NE to use any Tackle as trade chip

2) Solder's lack of lateral quickness is a head scratcher. Injury? Technique? Coaching? Sucktitude? Something is amiss that wasn't apparent in '13

3) Aim lower. The message is very clear. When head heights are on the same plane, the D will lose the argument. Aim lower and don't force the ref to make a judgement

4) Lester....the 5 for $100 mill speculation disregards what a similar comp turned down last ....Scherzer's 6 for $144 mill rejection set the bar. Who would sacrifice $4 mill per season for five years and $24 mill in the 6th year. No one leaves $44 mill on the table or the $55 mill eventuality. Agents know what their doing and the comps are everything in their world. The reality is baseball added $25 mill per team in new money last year and the top talent will see most of that extra money. The 5/100 is fantasy.

6) What exactly have the Fish, Bills, and Jets done to earn any respect?
 
6) What exactly have the Fish, Bills, and Jets done to earn any respect?

"ANY" respect?

Ummmm...... the Fish beat us this year.

Fish and Bills are 7-6.

Agree on the Jets.
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Did you know that over the season, we have only given up 5 rushing TDs? Denver was the last team to score a rushing TD against us.

Our redzone D has been very good as of late..GB game...SD only scored 14
 
FWIW, I think Cannon signing was made in mind that both Solder and Vollmer share the same agent as Welker does, and you can sure bet that there is still quite a bit of acrimony left over from the Welker debacle.
 
FWIW, I think Cannon signing was made in mind that both Solder and Vollmer share the same agent as Welker does, and you can sure bet that there is still quite a bit of acrimony left over from the Welker debacle.

But the "Welker debacle" didn't stop the Pats from getting a deal done with Vollmer in March 2013.
 
5. I love how this team is being build for the next 4 years. You can't have great depth at ever position, but the Pats are starting to look like a team that's coming as close as you can humanly be possible. This thread has gone on too long already to go into detail, but when you start to look over this roster. Think about who's on it now, and who can be added, there aren't many holes. Before we go into the draft, we can have a championship caliber offense and defense. Next year's draft will be fully luxury draft. Truly a chance to draft for long term quality than the usual quantity. Roster spots will be at a premium

It's funny. The storyline from the media especially the local media was comparing the Pats to the Broncos and how the Broncos knew their window with Manning is very short and were "all in" and loaded up for a Super Bowl run while the Pats blew it because they sacrificed maximizing Brady's this time this year for the future. Now that the Pats are clearly better than the Broncos and seem to be THE FAVORITE to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl over Denver, we don't hear anything.

Granted, they may prove otherwise in the playoffs, but I think this shows that the "all in" strategy is a stupid strategy. The Broncos are slightly better on defense, but they are significantly worse on offense. But this could be that Manning's window shut last year and he has reached the point where his physical limitations are going to hold him and the team back.

I think the "all in" strategy doesn't work in the modern NFL. Too many risks of free agents not performing as well as their financial commitment and it is about team and not individual players. People will point to the Seahawks of last year, but they are really not "all in" but just was lucky enough (or good enough drafters) t0 have almost all their elite players playing on their rookie deals giving them room to sign a lot of free agents. And they also benefitted from the fact that most of the free agents last year didn't get big deals.
 
Did you know that over the season, we have only given up 5 rushing TDs? Denver was the last team to score a rushing TD against us.

And that took a BS DPI call and two missed holds. :)
 
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