Ayers and Branch

robertweathers said:

Chandler Jones is very good vs the run. Belichick and Wilfork are on record as saying so.

Ayers has been a great pickup but I'd stop short of ranking him ahead on Jones.

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The one thing Ayers is definitely better than Jones is timing and disguising his rushes. Is that 2 things? He's not stronger than Jones but he lets the opponent commit before using his inertia against him. Jones is still more of a bull rusher. At least from the perspective of my untrained eye.

This is also where Hightower and Collins excel, timing their rushes.

nabwong said:

The one thing Ayers is definitely better than Jones is timing and disguising his rushes. Is that 2 things? He's not stronger than Jones but he lets the opponent commit before using his inertia against him. Jones is still more of a bull rusher. At least from the perspective of my untrained eye.

This is also where Hightower and Collins excel, timing their rushes.

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I agree with your analysis and is supported by this blog that was published going into the season.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...land-patriots-de-set-to-break-out-this-summer

I really like Ayers. So interesting how TN wanted him gone and has been outstanding here. Hopefully he and the Pats can work out a deal to keep him here for a few more years.

robertweathers said:

I agree with your analysis and is supported by this blog that was published going into the season.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...land-patriots-de-set-to-break-out-this-summer

I really like Ayers. So interesting how TN wanted him gone and has been outstanding here. Hopefully he and the Pats can work out a deal to keep him here for a few more years.

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Good read. Thanks for sharing. I hope we keep Ayers for a long time too.

I just posted in another thread that I really hope they extend Ayers. He has been making, big and small, plays since the very first game in which he suited up for NE. I haven't seen much of Branch to know yet how I feel about him long-term. I guess it really depends to me on what Vince wants to do. Does he play another season? Does he stay in NE? If yes to both, then I think that having Siliga and Easley mitigate losing Branch somewhat. Ayers, to me, is a must sign kind of player.

With that said, is there anyone better at in-season signings and trades than BB? I know he is oft criticized for his drafting and some of his off season moves, but trading Moss, signing Branch, trading for Talib, etc. The man just knows how to bring in guys that seem forgotten elsewhere and they make plays for the team. It's very interesting to see how good he is at that.

PatsBoy12 said:

I just posted in another thread that I really hope they extend Ayers. He has been making, big and small, plays since the very first game in which he suited up for NE. I haven't seen much of Branch to know yet how I feel about him long-term. I guess it really depends to me on what Vince wants to do. Does he play another season? Does he stay in NE? If yes to both, then I think that having Siliga and Easley mitigate losing Branch somewhat. Ayers, to me, is a must sign kind of player.

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Vince will need to redo his deal after the season. His salary and cap hit are much too high. VW's situation, along with FA, draft and TC will impact Branch's future with the team. Siliga is also a FA and they like him as well. It would not surprise me if they drafted a VW 2.0 next year. I expect Easley to be better next year. Coming off ACL surgery is a year-long process.

PatsBoy12 said:

With that said, is there anyone better at in-season signings and trades than BB? I know he is oft criticized for his drafting and some of his off season moves, but trading Moss, signing Branch, trading for Talib, etc. The man just knows how to bring in guys that seem forgotten elsewhere and they make plays for the team. It's very interesting to see how good he is at that.

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Its a mix of BB, Caserio, Bob Quinn and the rest of the FO and scouting dept all being in lock step in understanding current and future needs and who is out there and their experience playing in a system comparable to the Pat's.

robertweathers said:

Vince will need to redo his deal after the season. His salary and cap hit are much too high. VW's situation, along with FA, draft and TC will impact Branch's future with the team. Siliga is also a FA and they like him as well. It would not surprise me if they drafted a VW 2.0 next year. I expect Easley to be better next year. Coming off ACL surgery is a year-long process.

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SILIGA is an ERFA. He has no choices. He'll be back.

EASLEY and Chris JONES will be back.

BRANCH will likely be offered a couple of million a year before the season starts (say $1M, $1.5M, $2M salary and a $1.5M bonus. I would re-sign Branch whether or we sign a new deal with Wilfork or not. It is a long season. Miguel suggests that perhaps Branch will not be re-signed, as the team goes younger at DT. After all, We would have Siliga, Jones, Easley and Walker in addition to Wilfork.
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It is not WILFORK who "will need to redo his deal". It is the patriots who will pay him his $4.5M roster bonus before the off-season starts or Wilfork will be a free agent. Perhaps the TEAM feels that they "need" to have Wilfork redo his deal. That is another matter entirely.

mgteich said:

Signing Revis will save $13M from the current cap projections, even at a contract with an AAV of $14M-$16M. This $13M savings is more than enough to cover the first year cap on contracts for all of McCourty, Ayers, Casillas, Branch and Chung. We should remember that there are almost no significant free agents in 2016.

BTW, this still still leaves the following sources of additional cap money to deal miscellaneous ca costs and for additional players like Gostkowski, Vereen, and Connolly.
1) restucture of Brady moving money from 2015 salary to bonus (no net comp change)
2) restucture of Wilfork moving money from 2015 salary to bonus (no net comp change)
3) new construct for Mayo, moving money fro 2105 salary to bonus (with or without a change in comp)
4) extension of Arrington
5) cut of Amendola (with or without a re-signing)
6) extension of Solder

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You always propose that we move almost all our big salaries into the future. How do you propose we pay for those? Like the $20M you propose we pay Revis in 3 years. If you do these kinds of restructures you end up like the Jets with no cap space because you moved everything into the future. Signing Revis only saves $13M if you either want to pay a 33 year old corner $20M, which probably means that we can't pay our younger players, or if you plan on cutting him after year 2.

Marinlik said:

You always propose that we move almost all our big salaries into the future. How do you propose we pay for those? Like the $20M you propose we pay Revis in 3 years. If you do these kinds of restructures you end up like the Jets with no cap space because you moved everything into the future. Signing Revis only saves $13M if you either want to pay a 33 year old corner $20M, which probably means that we can't pay our younger players, or if you plan on cutting him after year 2.

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I reject your idea of not having bonuses. Every GM in the NFL also does so. Every year, I hear about DEN not being able to survive in the future. And every year they do. So, it is with the patriots. You also don't understand the meaning of the word "pay". To my knowledge no one has suggested paying Revis a salary of $20M in any year. I would note that if his salary were to be $20M for the 3rd year of a deal, we would have the same situation as now; it would be a fake year.

REVIS
Let us look at Revis. You seem to be the only one who wants to pay him $20M.

Revis will revise his deal before the start of the season or he will be playing for someone else. Let us look at a $15M a year contract. How much of a bonus would you include (NONE?). I suggest that Revis will want a guarantee of at least $20M. The team could simply pay Revis $14M, $15M and $16M with no bonus and guarantee all of this year's salary and $6M-$15M of next year's salary.

My position is the patriots will not be the only team in the league not to use signing bonuses to manage the cap. The patriots will not be the only team not to turn salary money into bonus money.

CONCLUSION
The situation is the opposite of what you suggest. You suggest doing what no other GM in the league would do, not have signing bonuses and not move any salary to bonus money.

mgteich said:

SILIGA is an ERFA. He has no choices. He'll be back.

EASLEY and Chris JONES will be back.

BRANCH will likely be offered a couple of million a year before the season starts (say $1M, $1.5M, $2M salary and a $1.5M bonus. I would re-sign Branch whether or we sign a new deal with Wilfork or not. It is a long season.
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It is not WILFORK who "will need to redo his deal". It is the patriots who will pay him his bonus before the off-season starts or Wilfork will be a free agent.

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Correct. My point is that if VW wants to stay with the Pats, he'll need to redo his deal as the Pats will not keep him at the current structure.

robertweathers said:

Correct. My point is that if VW wants to stay with the Pats, he'll need to redo his deal as the Pats will not keep him at the current structure.

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robertweathers said:

Correct. My point is that if VW wants to stay with the Pats, he'll need to redo his deal as the Pats will not keep him at the current structure.

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fair enough

BTW, the team thought that he was worth $8M of new money this year. Why do you suppose that the team now thinks that he is worth less?

Many of us has suggested that the deal signed last year was a who-me deal with two parts. Part 1 was a 1-year deal very favorable to the patriots where Wilfork could earn up to $8M if he earned all his incentives.
The second half of the deal was a team option. Wilfork has played well. It seems that you are saying that the 2nd and 3rd year deals are similar to the Revis deal, just a placeholder forcing negotiations in March.
That is certainly reasonable. Personally, I think that the situation has changed a lot. Last year, no one was sure if Wilfork would play again. This year Wilfork is healthy and considered by some of the best NT's in the NFL.

We've all seen the negotiations with Wilfork in the past. Wilfork was "forced" to take an incentive-laden deal totaling "only" $8M last year. It will be interesting to see what Wilfork will be pressured into signing this year.

mgteich said:

I reject your idea of not having bonuses. Every GM in the NFL also does so. Every year, I hear about DEN not being able to survive in the future. And every year they do. So, it is with the patriots. You also don't understand the meaning of the word "pay". To my knowledge no one has suggested paying Revis a salary of $20M in any year. I would note that if his salary were to be $20M for the 3rd year of a deal, we would have the same situation as now; it would be a fake year.

REVIS
Let us look at Revis. You seem to be the only one who wants to pay him $20M.

Revis will revise his deal before the start of the season or he will be playing for someone else. Let us look at a $15M a year contract. How much of a bonus would you include (NONE?). I suggest that Revis will want a guarantee of at least $20M. The team could simply pay Revis $14M, $15M and $16M with no bonus and guarantee all of this year's salary and $6M-$15M of next year's salary.

My position is the patriots will not be the only team in the league not to use signing bonuses to manage the cap. The patriots will not be the only team not to turn salary money into bonus money.

CONCLUSION
The situation is the opposite of what you suggest. You suggest doing what no other GM in the league would do, not have signing bonuses and not move any salary to bonus money.

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I have never said that there would be no bonus. A signing bonus is spread evenly across the contract when it comes to cap. I have no idea why you still think that an evenly spread sum means that you have to backload the contract. In the exact opposite it makes it easy to have an even contract. A signing bonus does not in any way at all mean you have to give an extremely low base salary in the first year.

Lets just take a contract with $14M AAV that has $26M in signing bonus and a total value of $42M as an example. That could be $8M in signing bonus each year and then $6M each year in salary, roster bonus and whatever. So simply $14M each year. A contract you constantly say is not possible with signing bonuses. But to save som cap space in 2015 we could have salaries, roster bonuses, and whatever of $3M in 2015, then $7,5M in 2016 and $7,5M in 2017. That way we save $9M this year and then pay Revis $15,5M for every year in the following years when the cap is higher. Made possible thanks to the signing bonus which is evenly spread.

This is, and has always been, my position. That a signing bonus in no means that the contract have to be backloaded to the extreme, and that we should give him a real three year contract that is somewhat evenly spread, because that is very possible even with the salary cap.

mgteich said:

fair enough

BTW, the team thought that he was worth $8M of new money this year. Why do you suppose that the team now thinks that he is worth less?

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Age. I just don't see the team paying a player who next Nov will be 34 $7.5m next year and having a $8.3m cap number. Not with the other players we've discussed in the fold. Always get rid of an old player a too soon than too late. I do think that they will attempt to keep him at a greatly reduced rate (half??)

mgteich said:

Many of us has suggested that the deal signed last year was a who-me deal with two parts. Part 1 was a 1-year deal very favorable to the patriots where Wilfork could earn up to $8M if he earned all his incentives.
The second half of the deal was a team option. Wilfork has played well. It seems that you are saying that the 2nd and 3rd year deals are similar to the Revis deal, just a placeholder forcing negotiations in March.
That is certainly reasonable. Personally, I think that the situation has changed a lot. Last year, no one was sure if Wilfork would play again. This year Wilfork is healthy and considered by some of the best NT's in the NFL.

We've all seen the negotiations with Wilfork in the past. Wilfork was "forced" to take an incentive-laden deal totaling "only" $8M last year. It will be interesting to see what Wilfork will be pressured into signing this year.

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I agree. VW has played well this year. Amazing bounce back year from a horrible injury. In the end, age, younger/other players at the position, draft and cap, $ circumstances w/ other players (see Revis, McCourty) might need a little of that $8.3m cap space.

Marinlik said:

I have never said that there would be no bonus. A signing bonus is spread evenly across the contract when it comes to cap. I have no idea why you still think that an evenly spread sum means that you have to backload the contract. In the exact opposite it makes it easier to have an even contract. A signing bonus does not in any way at all mean you have to give an extremely low base salary in the first year.

Lets just take a contract with $14M AAV that has $26M in signing bonus and a total value of $42M as an example. That could be $8M in signing bonus each year and then $6M each year in salary, roster bonus and whatever. So simply $14M each year. A contract you constantly say is not possible with signing bonuses. But to save som cap space in 2015 we could have salaries, roster bonuses, and whatever of $3M in 2015, then $7,5M in 2016 and $7,5M in 2017. That way we save $9M this year and then pay Revis $15,5M for every year in the following years when the cap is higher. Made possible thanks to the signing bonus which is evenly spread.

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You start with a $24M signing bonus and salaries of $6M a year, for an AAV of $14M a year.

You then take $3M of the salary and move it into 2016 and 2017 to result in a 2016 and 2017 cap hits of $15.5M. Mechanically, the way this is done is to create an additional $4.5M bonus. So the salaries are $1.5M, $6M and $6M.
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Let's do this in two steps

CONTRACT 1 ($24M bonus; $6M per year salary, total $42M)
CAP
2015 $8M plus $6M =$14M
2016 $8M plus $6M = $14M
2o17 $8M plus $6M = $14M

THE TEAM NOW WANTS TO MOVE $3M INTO 2016 and 2017
The way this is done is to create a second bonus.

CONTRACT 2 ($24M bonus plus $4.5M bonus plus salaries of $1.5M, $6M and $6M)
CAP
2015 $8M plus $1.5M plus $1.5M = $11M
2016 $8M plus $1.5M plus $6M = $15.5M
2017 $8M plus $1.5M plus $6M = $15.5M

This result is similar to I have suggested, and what is the norm in the NFL. It is also what you have suggested and called it backloading. We might actually be able to get by with a bonus of a bit less than the $28.5M you implicitly suggest.
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ALTERNATIVE
If you mean to say that there should be an $8M bonus actually DUE AND PAID each year at the option of the patriots and Revis, this is an entirely different concept. The second and third year bonus are called "roster bonuses" and are due before the years starts (like Wilfork) or by the first week or so of March. The cap effect would be the same as CONTACT 2.

This contract would give Revis $14M cash each year with the team having an option to sign him for $14 in 2016 and 2017. All this does is pay $8M of compensation in the beginning of the year.

If this is what you want, you have wasted a lot of time. I will answer for Revis. He has absolutely ZERO interest in a contract that guarantees him $12M for year 1 plus a year 1 salary of $1.5M for a total of $14M, plus the patriots also get an option to sign him each year for $14M. I don't know what his requirements for guarantees are, but there are more than $14M

BTW, even under this scenario, the salaries are backloaded, going from $1.5M to $6M.

mgteich said:

You start with a $24M signing bonus and salaries of $6M a year, for an AAV of $14M a year.

You then take $3M of the salary and move it into 2016 and 2017 to result in a 2016 and 2017 cap hits of $15.5M. Mechanically, the way this is done is to create an additional $4.5M bonus. So the salaries are $1.5M, $6M and $6M.
===========
Let's do this in two steps

CONTRACT 1 ($24M bonus; $6M per year salary, total $42M)
CAP
2015 $8M plus $6M =$14M
2016 $8M plus $6M = $14M
2o17 $8M plus $6M = $14M

THE TEAM NOW WANTS TO MOVE $3M INTO 2016 and 2017
The way this is done is to create a second bonus.

CONTRACT 2 ($24M bonus plus $4.5M bonus plus salaries of $1.5M, $6M and $6M)
CAP
2015 $8M plus $1.5M plus $1.5M = $11M
2016 $8M plus $1.5M plus $6M = $15.5M
2017 $8M plus $1.5M plus $6M = $15.5M

This result is similar to I have suggested, and what is the norm in the NFL. It is also what you have suggested and called it backloading. We might actually be able to get by with a bonus of a bit less than the $28.5M you implicitly suggest.
==========================

ALTERNATIVE
If you mean to say that there should be an $8M bonus actually DUE AND PAID each year at the option of the patriots and Revis, this is an entirely different concept. The second and third year bonus are called "roster bonuses" and are due before the years starts (like Wilfork) or by the first week or so of March. The cap effect would be the same as CONTACT 2.

This contract would give Revis $14M cash each year with the team having an option to sign him for $14 in 2016 and 2017. All this does is pay $8M of compensation in the beginning of the year.

If this is what you want, you have wasted a lot of time. I will answer for Revis. He has absolutely ZERO interest in a contract that guarantees him $12M for year 1 plus a year 1 salary of $1.5M for a total of $14M, plus the patriots also get an option to sign him each year for $14M. I don't know what his requirements for guarantees are, but there are more than $14M

BTW, even under this scenario, the salaries are backloaded, going from $1.5M to $6M.

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Please give one reason for why you couldn't have base salaries of $3m, $7.5M, $7.5M. I've seen absolutely no reason for needing to convert salary to bonus to have that, because you are free to set different base salaries each year, making my example very possible. So you could have a base salary of $3M in the first year, then $7.5M in the following years.

No I do not mean a bonus paid each year. I mean a signing bonus of $26M. Signing bonuses are spread evenly across a contract on the cap, but paid fully when signed(as seen by the name). Meaning $8M per year on the cap for the signing bonus but fully paid when he signs. I have absolutely zero idea how you got your alternative idea as I didn't say anything close to that.


You might have played too much Madden if you think all contracts are extremely backloaded with a very low base salary in the first year. Because contracts can have cap figures that are close to each other every year. Even with a signing bonus.

I think...and hope they keep Ayers as well. Has turned out really well for us. Same with Branch. Has been playing very good as well. Keep them both if possible...plus revis of course

It feels really nice that ever player we have acquired has been excellent. This never happens and we should give a big thumbs up to Bill the GM!

oldrover said:

This year, with his in-season deals, if you're a GM and BB's across the table, it's gonna look like...

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Bill cheated. He went out of turn.

oldrover said:

This year, with his in-season deals, if you're a GM and BB's across the table, it's gonna look like...

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The thing is, BB could be playing checkers and the rest of the league chess, and he'd still win.

Marinlik said:

Please give one reason for why you couldn't have base salaries of $3m, $7.5M, $7.5M. I've seen absolutely no reason for needing to convert salary to bonus to have that, because you are free to set different base salaries each year, making my example very possible. So you could have a base salary of $3M in the first year, then $7.5M in the following years.

No I do not mean a bonus paid each year. I mean a signing bonus of $26M. Signing bonuses are spread evenly across a contract on the cap, but paid fully when signed(as seen by the name). Meaning $8M per year on the cap for the signing bonus but fully paid when he signs. I have absolutely zero idea how you got your alternative idea as I didn't say anything close to that.


You might have played too much Madden if you think all contracts are extremely backloaded with a very low base salary in the first year. Because contracts can have cap figures that are close to each other every year. Even with a signing bonus.

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Look junior. I have NEVER played Madden. I reviewed and negotiated contracts when I worked, and have looked at NFL contracts (as an outsider) for 30 years.

Yes, you can have a $26M bonus plus salaries of $3M, $7.5M and $7.5M. Some would call this contract backloading. Are you really whining because I suggested a first year contract of $1M instead of $3M, pushing a whole ONE million additional into 2016 and into 2017?

I've always specifically attributed the arrival of Wright and Casillas in Foxboro to Coach Schiano and his "advisory" role on the team. I think that's hard to dispute. And, right or wrong, I've attributed the addition of Branch and Ayers to Mike Lombardi, although that may be a fiction on my part.

The mid-season pro-player trades that we've made this year have been palpably better than in recent years. I think it's a natural byproduct of having advisors who are intimate with players and film from other conferences in the NFL. Not unlike when we signed a bunch of Denver players when McDaniels rejoined the staff.