The FO Knows What They're Doing

So many picks that have been lambasted. Just in recent years:

- Ras-I Dowling (#33 in 2011)
- Tavon Wilson (#48 in 2012)
- Jake Bequette (#91 in 2012)
- Aaron Dobson (#59 in 2013)
- Duron Harmon (#93 in 2013)
- Josh Boyce (#102 in 2013)
- James White (#130 in 2014)

And that's just the tip of the iceberg. So many missed opportunities. So tempting to think about what could have been. And that doesn't include draft picks/FAs who were highly questioned, and who are currently a key part of the team's success (Dont'a Hightower, Jamie Collins, Brandon LaFell, Tim Wright)

Obviously, not all draft picks or FA decisions work out. But does that mean they were poor decisions?

Looking at this team and how complete it is on both sides of the ball (and yes, there are holes, especially at interior OL and WR depth) and how adroitly the FO self-scouts and makes in-season adjustments to address weaknesses, I find myself compelled to believe that they know pretty darn well what they are doing. Much better than any of us, certainly.

Most of all, I'm impressed by signs a consistent plan and direction. No draft pick or acquisition is a completely known quantity, and you never know how a newbie will fit in or adapt to the organizational structure and culture. But the team seems to be doing far better than throwing darts, finding guys like Jones, Hightower, Collins and Ayers who fit so well; or guys like Stork, Fleming, Wright and LaFell.

Just because a pick or acquisition doesn't work out doesn't necessarily mean it was bad. Some may in fact have been bad decisions, but I'm guessing that there's a method to the FO's madness, and that they have a clear idea what they are looking for that caused them to pick some of the above guys ahead of other options.

mayoclinic said:

So many picks that have been lambasted. Just in recent years:

- Ras-I Dowling (#33 in 2011)
- Tavon Wilson (#48 in 2012)
- Jake Bequette (#91 in 2012)
- Aaron Dobson (#59 in 2013)
- Duron Harmon (#93 in 2013)
- Josh Boyce (#102 in 2013)
- James White (#130 in 2014)

And that's just the tip of the iceberg. So many missed opportunities. So tempting to think about what could have been. And that doesn't include draft picks/FAs who were highly questioned, and who are currently a key part of the team's success (Dont'a Hightower, Jamie Collins, Brandon LaFell, Tim Wright)

Obviously, not all draft picks or FA decisions work out. But does that mean they were poor decisions?

Looking at this team and how complete it is on both sides of the ball (and yes, there are holes, especially at interior OL and WR depth) and how adroitly the FO self-scouts and makes in-season adjustments to address weaknesses, I find myself compelled to believe that they know pretty darn well what they are doing. Much better than any of us, certainly.

Most of all, I'm impressed by signs a consistent plan and direction. No draft pick or acquisition is a completely known quantity, and you never know how a newbie will fit in or adapt to the organizational structure and culture. But the team seems to be doing far better than throwing darts, finding guys like Jones, Hightower, Collins and Ayers who fit so well; or guys like Stork, Fleming, Wright and LaFell.

Just because a pick or acquisition doesn't work out doesn't necessarily mean it was bad. Some may in fact have been bad decisions, but I'm guessing that there's a method to the FO's madness, and that they have a clear idea what they are looking for that caused them to pick some of the above guys ahead of other options.

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Most of all, I'mimpressed by signs a consistent plan and direction.

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This is different to what you were arguing last year.

manxman2601 said:

Isn't that the complete opposite of what you were arguing last year, especially with regards to a certain linebacker.

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Absolutely. Couldn't see the plan, and it drove me nuts. Now they're doing things on D that are exceptionally creative. It's also to Hightower's credit that he put in the work.

If the draft order stays as it is and we win the Superbowl, we will get Joanthan Casillas for the loss of one draft spot and Akeem Ayers for the loos of two. The current draft order is TB @ 1 and Tenn @ 2. They could barely have been any cheaper.

I am very happy that you made that post, we as fans tend to lose sight of the bigger picture and we want to throw a collection of talent out there rather than field a team. It get very annoying when people say we could have had this guy rather than the person we drafted.
Just because someone may have success on their current team does not mean that they would fit here or perform just as well.
I am sure that there has been a reason behind every draft pick. Wilson and Harmon to fill the role that Chung is in right now or Bequette to fill into the DE rotation much like ayers will do once Jones is back.

Picking up Ayers, Casillas, Branch and Blount for nothing is brilliant DURING the season.

dliverey said:

I am very happy that you made that post, we as fans tend to lose sight of the bigger picture and we want to throw a collection of talent out there rather than field a team. It get very annoying when people say we could have had this guy rather than the person we drafted.
Just because someone may have success on their current team does not mean that they would fit here or perform just as well.
I am sure that there has been a reason behind every draft pick. Wilson and Harmon to fill the role that Chung is in right now or Bequette to fill into the DE rotation much like ayers will do once Jones is back.

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It's quite likely that the Pats' scouting staff saw something specific in Tavon Wilson and Duron Harmon that they thought fit what they were looking for, as opposed to other better known names. Whether they work out or not doesn't mean that there wasn't a method to the madness.

Another way of looking the 2012 draft it is that the FO had clear targets in Jones and Hightower, and thought it well worthwhile trading up for both, which left the cupboard bare. They managed to get Ebner and Dennard out of a tradeback, but they had limited room to move around with their other picks, and had to settle a bit. If that was the case, they succeedly wildly with their primary targets, so it was well worth it. You can't have everything, especially in a draft where they had limited ammo to begin with.

manxman2601 said:

This is different to what you were arguing last year.

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To follow up on this, my favorite defensive player in the 2012 draft was Lavonte David, and he's been everything that I hoped he would be. But he can't do all the things for us that Hightower can (though he can do some things that Hightower can't). The FO looked at guys like David, Bobby Wagner and Mychal Thompson extensively, and they went with Hightower, who has blossomed into a pro bowl caliber LB. Hard to argue with that. It was tantalizing to me last year to think of other options the Pats could have chosen (Harrison Smith in the 1st and Lavonte David at 48, for example), but the bottom line is they made their move for the guy he wanted, he's turned into a heckuva player, and it's hard to find fault with their choice.

mayoclinic said:

It's quite likely that the Pats' scouting staff saw something specific in Tavon Wilson and Duron Harmon that they thought fit what they were looking for, as opposed to other better known names. Whether they work out or not doesn't mean that there wasn't a method to the madness.

Another way of looking the 2012 draft it is that the FO had clear targets in Jones and Hightower, and thought it well worthwhile trading up for both, which left the cupboard bare. They managed to get Ebner and Dennard out of a tradeback, but they had limited room to move around with their other picks, and had to settle a bit. If that was the case, they succeedly wildly with their primary targets, so it was well worth it. You can't have everything, especially in a draft where they had limited ammo to begin with.

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I said when we drafted Harmon that he was drafted to be McCourty's backup, exactly how he's been playing. He almost plays exclusively in the McCourty role. It was the role Harmon played consistently at Rutgers. I think he was almost certainly targeted for that role.

mayoclinic said:

To follow up on this, my favorite defensive player in the 2012 draft was Lavonte David, and he's been everything that I hoped he would be. But he can't do all the things for us that Hightower can (though he can do some things that Hightower can't). The FO looked at guys like David, Bobby Wagner and Mychal Thompson extensively, and they went with Hightower, who has blossomed into a pro bowl caliber LB. Hard to argue with that. It was tantalizing to me last year to think of other options the Pats could have chosen (Harrison Smith in the 1st and Lavonte David at 48, for example), but the bottom line is they made their move for the guy he wanted, he's turned into a heckuva player, and it's hard to find fault with their choice.

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Less so know that we have Casillas but KPL would have been perfect. Sounds like he's doing well at Seattle too.

Drafting aside as we have spoke about this a ton. It's been the mid season trades/aquisitions of late which had given us most cause for joy recently. Wright, Ayres, Cassillias, Branch, Blount, Talib et al.

Have there been misses? yep. But the key has been the relativley low cost. Especially in light of the teams we traded with tanking.

Looks like the Mankins/Wright trade now looks even better with TB's pick currently at #1 in the 4th round giving us 3 picks in that area.

manxman2601 said:

Less so know that we have Casillas but KPL would have been perfect. Sounds like he's doing well at Seattle too.

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Isn't he on IR?

manxman2601 said:

If the draft order stays as it is and we win the Superbowl, we will get Joanthan Casillas for the loss of one draft spot and Akeem Ayers for the loos of two. The current draft order is TB @ 1 and Tenn @ 2. They could barely have been any cheaper.

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This will be true if there are no comp picks between those rounds, but recent history suggests that both will be drops of no more than 10 total.

ctpatsfan77 said:

This will be true if there are no comp picks between those rounds, but recent history suggests that both will be drops of no more than 10 total.

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Pedant!

mayoclinic said:

Isn't he on IR?

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He might be but has done OK in limited snaps by all accounts.

mayoclinic said:

Isn't he on IR?

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Those minor details:

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/9662/kevin-pierre-louis

mayoclinic said:

...and yes, there are holes, especially at interior OL and WR depth...

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The FO clearly does not know what it is doing regarding drafting/developing WRs.

captain stone said:

The FO clearly does not know what it is doing regarding drafting/developing WRs.

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Not clear at all. They did ok with Julian Edelman, and signing LaFell. In keeping with the OP, I'm presuming that they saw something specific that they liked in Aaron Dobson compared to the other receivers in the draft. I think we've already seen enough of Justin Hunter and Cordarelle Patterson to see why they passed.

Look at the WRs taken in 2013:

8. Tavon Austin. Great all-purpose weapon, but taken way too high, and not enough of a disciplined WR. Can't block worth ****.
27. DeAndre Hopkins. Would probably have been a fine fit if the Pats had traded up. They didn't have a ton of picks in 2013, and they obviously didn't see the need to go after him.
29. Cordarelle Patterson. Does anyone really think he would have succeeded here?
34. Justin Hunter. See Cordarelle Patterson.
40. Robert Woods. Solid receiver, but nothing special.
59. Aaron Dobson.
74. Terrance Williams. Would probably have been a good choice.
76. Keenan Allen. The best of the bunch so far, unless Darrelle Revis is defending him.
78. Marquis Goodwin. Hasn't done much.
79. Markus Wheaton. Good speed threat. Did nothing a a rookie, but has improved this year.
92. Stedman Bailey. Slot receiver. We had enough of those.

The 2013 rookie class wasn't the 2014 class, but the Pats needed to move on from old standbys. Of the 11 guys taken in the 1st 3 rounds only Hopkins, Williams and Allen were likely to have turned out as better options for the Pats. Dobson had more speed than any of them, and had a solid rookie year.

Last year's WR class was much stronger, but the SB champ Seahawks traded back from the 1st and took Paul Richardson at #45, and Denver traded up to take Cody Latimer at #56. Those guys have combined for 17 receptions for 138 yards and 0 TDs. Apparently Seattle and Denver can't pick WRs, either.

I think we are writing off James White a little early

The FO Knows What They're Doing:

After reviewing the draft selections from 2008 to 2014 in the first three rounds (the meat and potatoes of the draft), I seriously question the validity of the topic.

http://www.pro-football-reference.c...os=ALL&college_id=all&conference=any&show=all

Wheatley
Crable
O'Connell
Brace
Butler
Tate
McKenzie
Cunningham
Price
Dowling
Mallett
Wilson
Bequette
Dobson ???
Ryan ???
Harmon ???