Strength of schedule: expected vs. actual

For once, the preseason SOS seems to have done a pretty good job predicting things. The list gives the actual SOSes at this point in the season; the numbers in parentheses indicate the top 10 hardest schedules based on 2013 results. Teams in red or blue are, as of 11/29/14, in the playoffs.

1. Raiders (1)
2. Broncos (2)
3. Seahawks (6)
4. Rams (3)
5. Cardinals (8)
6. 49ers (4t)
7. JEST (9)
8. Bills
9. Patriots (10)
10. Chiefs (7)
11. Dolphins
12. Bengals
13. Chargers (4t)
14. Giants
15. Packers
16. Bears
17. Ravens
18. Colts
19. Panthers
20. Jaguars
21. Lions
22. Saints
23. Eagles
24. Falcons
25. Steelers
26. Redskins
27. Titans
28. Vikings
29. Cowboys
30. Browns
31. Texans
32. Buccaneers

SOS always made me laugh, if you win, your SOS becomes weaker, if you lose, your SOS suddenly becomes stronger. Also, if you get beat 30-29 by a 14-1 team whose schedule was playing cupcake schedule, the SOS is the same as being beat by a team that has blown out everyone with the same record.

anditsgood said:

SOS always made me laugh, if you win, your SOS becomes weaker, if you lose, your SOS suddenly becomes stronger. Also, if you get beat 30-29 by a 14-1 team whose schedule was playing cupcake schedule, the SOS is the same as being beat by a team that has blown out everyone with the same record.

Click to expand...

I'm with you here. There definitely needs to be more analysis before someone can use SOS to come to any real conclusions about a team.

Alas, we live in an era of 24-hour coverage, cheap and quick analysis, and selective memory due to the fact that prior analysis from "analysts" was poor to begin with. I admit; it's entertaining to watch it all happen, though.

Nikolai said:

I'm with you here. There definitely needs to be more analysis before someone can use SOS to come to any real conclusions about a team.

Alas, we live in an era of 24-hour coverage, cheap and quick analysis, and selective memory due to the fact that prior analysis from "analysts" was poor to begin with. I admit; it's entertaining to watch it all happen, though.

Click to expand...

To me, its like the power rankings, i read it for purely entertainment purposes, knowing any given Sunday

Interesting, the AFCE is in the top 1/3.

For comparison, here's Football Outsiders rankings for SOS (based roughly on DVOA), to this point in the season:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff

1. Jets
2. Raiders
3. Dolphins
4. Rams
5. Panthers
6. Chiefs
7. Broncos
8. Giants
9. Patriots
10. Jaguars
11. Cardinals
12. Bears
13. Titans
14. Bills
15. Vikings
16. Lions
17. Niners
18. Seahawks
19. Colts
20. Chargers
21. Saints
22. Bengals
23. Texans
24. Packers
25. Ravens
26. Buccaneers
27. Redskins
28. Browns
29. Steelers
30. Eagles
31. Falcons
32. Cowboys

Interesting to see how much farther down the list the Packers are in the FO ratings than by opponents won-loss record. Also to see how far down the list the AFC North is, despite their record(s). Another interesting thing at that link is that the Patriots are listed as having the 4th toughest schedule from here on out, given how good the AFC East has turned out to be. When the Pats get to the end of the season, they will really be battle-tested. All this runs contrary to the usual mutterings by the mainstream fans/press about how the Patriots get to stroll through their division while the AFC North and NFC West have to really grind it out. Ha. I love it.

I took the average ranking for each team's total opponents so far and this is how it all shook out

St Louis 1
New York Giants 2
Oakland 3
New York Jets 4
Denver 5
Jacksonville 6
Carolina 7
Tennessee 8
San Francisco 9
Miami 9
Arizona 11
New Orleans 12
Seattle 13
Kansas City 14
Minnesota 14
Chicago 16
New England 17
Indianapolis 18
Detroit 19
Houston 19
Washington 21
Buffalo 22
Baltimore 23
Cincinnati 24
Philadelphia 25
San Diego 25
Green Bay 27
Dallas 28
Atlanta 29
Tampa Bay 30
Pittsburgh 31
Cleveland 32