Idle thoughts - The ambitious edtion

Fencer said:

In this kind of scenario, is there any position to which they'd be likely to add an expensive FA without an off-setting cut or disappointing non-signing? I don't see many.

QB -- no.
RB -- no, except that if Vereen isn't signed somebody else needs to take his place.
TE -- no, with the emergency of Wright.
WR -- sorry, no.
OT -- no.
Interior OL -- one of the two real candidates IMO

DT/3-4 DE -- Wilfork, Easley, Siliga, Chris Jones, Branch ... I'm thinking no.
4-3 DE/3-4 OLB -- an area of depth weakness for quite a while now. Ayers shores it up somewhat. Still, one of the two real candidates IMO for serious shoring-up, w/ Ninko aging and Chandler Jones getting hurt a lot.
Pure LB -- I'm guessing no, although if edge players aren't added then maybe somebody could take some load off Hightower to free him up for more edge-rusher snaps.
CB -- We seem to be quite rich in depth.
S -- Our starters are pretty effective and there's a lot of depth, so I'd say no.

Special teams -- the positions at which there's any need (mainly LS) are not expensive ones

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I agree. I think the goal is to keep the team intact and upgrade some depth and long-term positions, mainly on the OL and DL, via the draft. Interior OL and 4-3 DE/3-4 OLB, along with a long term successor to Wilfork, are the major needs IMO. Depth at TE, WR, RB and S are lesser issues (I think that Wilson and Harmon can be upgraded, but it's not an acute "need").

Earlier this year I thought that Wilfork could be a cap cut and replaced by a FA DT (Fairley, Odrick, Knighton). But he is playing very well and looks to have at least another year in the tank, so I'm guessing he will stay and a potential replacement drafted.

Fencer said:

In this kind of scenario, is there any position to which they'd be likely to add an expensive FA without an off-setting cut or disappointing non-signing? I don't see many.

QB -- no.
RB -- no, except that if Vereen isn't signed somebody else needs to take his place.
TE -- no, with the emergency of Wright.
WR -- sorry, no.
OT -- no.
Interior OL -- one of the two real candidates IMO

DT/3-4 DE -- Wilfork, Easley, Siliga, Chris Jones, Branch ... I'm thinking no.
4-3 DE/3-4 OLB -- an area of depth weakness for quite a while now. Ayers shores it up somewhat. Still, one of the two real candidates IMO for serious shoring-up, w/ Ninko aging and Chandler Jones getting hurt a lot.
Pure LB -- I'm guessing no, although if edge players aren't added then maybe somebody could take some load off Hightower to free him up for more edge-rusher snaps.
CB -- We seem to be quite rich in depth.
S -- Our starters are pretty effective and there's a lot of depth, so I'd say no.

Special teams -- the positions at which there's any need (mainly LS) are not expensive ones

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I can't see us adding any "expensive" free agents. That being said, we would likely replace Vereen, Connolly, Ayers, Branch, Casillas or Chung if they don't re-sign.

Almost every team could use an additional DE/OLB stud to rush the passer. We've added Ayers and will have Jones back. We also are developing Moore and Buchanan. I agree that we are thin at this position. I could see a top draft choice but not an expensive free agent.

Considering DE/OLB, As aj sand last year, we are talking about spending major resources for a backup. We will have Jones and Ninkovich as starters. We also will have Ayers, Moore and Buchanan as backups. Also, as you note, if we had more pure linebackers, then one of our lB's could take more reps outside. Early in the year, the suggestion was Collins; you suggest Hightower. Even with Mayo, Hightower, Collins and Casillas as our linebackers, there is certainly the possibility of Collins or Hightower being an OLB if needed.

I'm not sure that BB believes in a "window" but Brady is 37 and signed through 2017. Wilfork is 33 and signed through 2016. Ninkovich is 30 and signed through 2016. Darrelle Revis is 29. If Revis, McCourty and the other defensive players are re-signed, I think we're in prime position for the next 3 years to be a major SB contender - 4 years including this one - with the talent on both sides of the ball to match up against anyone.

patfanken said:

Instead why not (in this case), create a contract that actually pays what what he would get year to year. Getting relief on an immediate basis will begin to hurt almost immediately. There are always going to be "the next" key draft picks to resign. That never stops being an urgency. What' s wrong with paying as you go (a novel concept)

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Well, you are the one suggesting the novel approach, basically getting rid of bonuses. You are the one who needs to support why the patriots should be the only team that pays for current players only out of current year funds. Let us say that out of the current cost, the patriots use bonuses to pay for 20% of current costs in 2015, 10% in 2016 and 5% in 2017. So, over 1/3 of current costs are being paid in the future. This is a permanent situation. We will always have bonuses. You would basically have the patriots take a $40M cap hit that no one else is required to take.

Consider this another way. In the outside world, let us say that you had the opportunity to borrow 35% of your costs at 0% interest, and be guaranteed that this would always be the case, with your market also guaranteed for the future. Would you be only one not to take the loans and allow all you competitors to have the free money.
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BOTTOM LINE
The issue is structural. There are many types of contracts. Large numbers of contracts have significant bonuses. Almost all rookie contracts have bonuses. I do NOT want the patriots to give up the cap accounting advantage and stop giving bonuses. After all, that it what we are discussing.

mayoclinic said:

I agree. I think the goal is to keep the team intact and upgrade some depth and long-term positions, mainly on the OL and DL, via the draft. Interior OL and 4-3 DE/3-4 OLB, along with a long term successor to Wilfork, are the major needs IMO. Depth at TE, WR, RB and S are lesser issues (I think that Wilson and Harmon can be upgraded, but it's not an acute "need").

Earlier this year I thought that Wilfork could be a cap cut and replaced by a FA DT (Fairley, Odrick, Knighton). But he is playing very well and looks to have at least another year in the tank, so I'm guessing he will stay and a potential replacement drafted.

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This team is remarkably well set for next season (assuming we resign most of our FA's . Of course improving depth is always an issue, but it I only had my draft picks to add to this team, I'd be fine.

QB- Just find a camp arm or PS QB and we'll be fine
RB- I'm assuming we have Gray under contract, so resign Vareer, to add to Gray, Blount, and White (not that I like White, he is ours) and we have have a nice 4some to start.)
TE - I'd like to think we can upgrade Hooman in FA or the draft, but maybe we are all underestimating his skills, or underestimating how hard it is to find his "skill set"
WR- Lets keep developing the guys we have. I still have hope for Dobson and Boyce.
OL - I'll probably be pissed if one of our first 2 picks next year isn't an interior offensive line men. I'd like to think we can get 2 starters out of this draft class in the interior OL. One next year, one the year after,.

DE - This might seem like a prime area of renewal, but don't forget Buchannon and Moore are 2 nice prospects ripening on the vine.
DT - Here's the other area we might see some help. Easley is one kind of DT, I'd like to see us add another high end DT who is more like Tommy Kelly in stature
LB - We clearly need to add more depth to Mayo Hightower and Collins. Draft or FA, I don't care.
DB's I'd love to keep the same guys for another year.

So in the end, we need an physical upgrade at OG. It would be nice to have more physicality on the DL. And I'm all in on the "my #3 TE is better than your #3 TE" arms race When you thin.k about it, that's not much of a shopping list, especially when you compare it to the rest of the league

patfanken said:

This team is remarkably well set for next season (assuming we resign most of our FA's . Of course improving depth is always an issue, but it I only had my draft picks to add to this team, I'd be fine.

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As I said above, it's actually setting up nicely for a 4 year window (including this one).

mgteich said:

Well, you are the one suggesting the novel approach, basically getting rid of bonuses. You are the one who needs to support why the patriots should be the only team that pays for current players only out of current year funds. Let us say that out of the current cost, the patriots use bonuses to pay for 20% of current costs in 2015, 10% in 2016 and 5% in 2017. So, over 1/3 of current costs are being paid in the future. This is a permanent situation. We will always have bonuses. You would basically have the patriots take a $40M cap hit that no one else is required to take.

Consider this another way. In the outside world, let us say that you had the opportunity to borrow 35% of your costs at 0% interest, and be guaranteed that this would always be the case, with your market also guaranteed for the future. Would you be only one not to take the loans and allow all you competitors to have the free money.
=====
BOTTOM LINE
The issue is structural. There are many types of contracts. Large numbers of contracts have significant bonuses. Almost all rookie contracts have bonuses. I do NOT want the patriots to give up the cap accounting advantage and stop giving bonuses. After all, that it what we are discussing.

Click to expand...

You can give bonuses and still not extremely overload the back end of a contract like in your example. Bonuses does not detract from the opportunity to have roughly equal cap hits each year. Just because he gets a signing bonus does not mean that you have to give him $1M this year in base and then the huge amount of $14M as base 2 years later. You could make the contract much more level, even with bonus.

FYI - When and if Browner, Chung, Amendola, Wilfork, abd Hoomanawanui play in more games this year than they did in 2013 Patriots will lose cap space as the players reached NLTBE 46-man active roster bonuses. Remaining liability = $941,250

What the Pats end the 2014 with the cap space will NOT be the official rollover cap amount when the team's 2015 adjusted cap number is announced in the spring because of reached NLTBE incentives this year. I conservatively project the amount to be $3.5 million.

With no leverage Revis was paid $12 million this year 500K of that amount is in per-game bonuses. Not sure why when he has most, if not, all of the leverage he would agree to a deal that is so dependent on per-game bonuses. Richard Sherman, Patrick Peterson, and Joe Haden do not have any per-game bonuses in their contracts nor do their contracts contain a Super Bowl appearance bonus. For the same reasons I doubt that Revis will agree to a deal whose structure is heavily back-loaded.

Miguel said:

FYI - When and if Browner, Chung, Amendola, Wilfork, abd Hoomanawanui play in more games this year than they did in 2013 Patriots will lose cap space as the players reached NLTBE 46-man active roster bonuses. Remaining liability = $941,250

What the Pats end the 2014 with the cap space will NOT be the official rollover cap amount when the team's 2015 adjusted cap number is announced in the spring because of reached NLTBE incentives this year. I conservatively project the amount to be $3.5 million.

With no leverage Revis was paid $12 million this year 500K of that amount is in per-game bonuses. Not sure why when he has most, if not, all of the leverage he would agree to a deal that is so dependent on per-game bonuses. Richard Sherman, Patrick Peterson, and Joe Haden do not have any per-game bonuses in their contracts nor do their contracts contain a Super Bowl appearance bonus. For the same reasons I doubt that Revis will agree to a deal whose structure is heavily back-loaded.

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Very useful stuff. Thanks. I've used a slightly more aggressive very rough "guesstimate" of $5M carryover, but have generally assumed it won't be much more than what is needed to re-sign all of the ERFAs. I've been using a slightly conservative 2015 cap number of $15M for Revis on a new deal (including his $5M pro-rated bonus number). The numbers tend to even out. I don't do the detailed analysis that you do, but I find it very helpful to check against your analysis to see if I'm in the ballpark.

My next update to my 2015 preview will mention that the Patriots, as the other 31 teams, sign their practice squad players to future contracts. But because of the Top 51 rule the cap impact is nil or minimal

mayoclinic said:

I'm not sure that BB believes in a "window" but Brady is 37 and signed through 2017. Wilfork is 33 and signed through 2016. Ninkovich is 30 and signed through 2016. Darrelle Revis is 29. If Revis, McCourty and the other defensive players are re-signed, I think we're in prime position for the next 3 years to be a major SB contender - 4 years including this one - with the talent on both sides of the ball to match up against anyone.

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If BB changed gears and went all-in with a mortgage on the future, we would be in for a fun few years. It's not going to happen, of course, but it makes for fun off-season speculations.

Marinlik said:

You can give bonuses and still not extremely overload the back end of a contract like in your example. Bonuses does not detract from the opportunity to have roughly equal cap hits each year. Just because he gets a signing bonus does not mean that you have to give him $1M this year in base and then the huge amount of $14M as base 2 years later. You could make the contract much more level, even with bonus.

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This goes for McCourty, too. I don't know that a $5M cap number for him next year is realistic. He's going to be averaging $8Mish, and he is exactly the type of player that Bill won't want to back-load, because he wants him staying around for the long haul. If he gets a 4y/$32M deal, I'd expect the cap hits to run closer to 6.5, 7.5, 8.5, 9.5. The climbing structure will always make sense due to the growing cap numbers, but bonus payments are easily converted to guaranteed salary for purposes of making the contract more sustainable.

patfanken said:

So as much as I want Revis back, and how good he's played, there has to be a certain line that we cannot cross for this guy......and this would be mine. for a 3 year deal.

1. $8.4MM/year guaranteed (unless for cause)
2.$ 388K/game for ever game he's on the roster
3. $1MM/bonus for every year the team makes it to the superbowl

So essentially this is $14MM/yr deal with 60% guaranteed 8.4 up front and the rest he gets paid when he plays...PLUS a million on top with a super bowl appearance. Ever better would being able to amortize it over 4 years BTW- I'd pay $16MM if he were 27, not 29

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Right now, Revis's 2015 cap number is structured as follows:"
5M prorated signing bonus
12 April 1 roster bonus - guaranteed if Patriots pick up option by the end of the 2014 league year
7.5 m salary
500K (33,333 per-game active bonuses up to 15 games)
(20 million in cash received in 2015)

If I understand your proposal the structure would be
$5M prorated signing bonus
$9.333M fully guaranteed salary
4.6667M in per-game roster bonuses
resulting in a 19 million cap hit in 2015 and Revis receiving 14 million in cash in 2015.

FYI - Since you are fully guaranteeing $28 million, the Patriots have to put the $28 million in escrow right away per NFL rules/CBA. So why not simply give Revis the money up front as a signing bonus?

I think a corner like Revis is invaluable, so I'd pay what it took and save elsewhere, though i don't like to pay GM.

As to what makes him special, I agree on most factors, but there is also the innate nervous system of a great defensive player, be it football or basketball.

The ability to smoothly react, and never overreact, in real time is an ability you either have or you don't. A KC Jones or a rodman had it, it;s infuriating for an offensive player. It most shows up in basketball in shot blocking. You either have the ability to fluidly wait until the last second, no matter how many fakes or last minute passes, the stretch out your arm and jump at the exact millisecond. You can't learn it.

Asante Samuel always had it and not the other attributes that make a great player. Ellis Hobbs worked hard, but was always twitchy and got called for penalties or contact because of it. It's almost a lazy look, where you're always moving faster than you look. I watched Revis the other day blanket this guy and it looked like a dance routine, as if Revis was just responding to choreographed moves of his "partner" which undoubtedly was frustrating, since the partner was trying anything to not be in synch with him.

It's a passing league and he's the best, I'd make it happen. I love Browner and our depth, but that can be replaced if need be. Everyone looks better when a real cornerback is frustrating the offense.

There's only a handfull of players who even have the ability, if they strive, to ever play like Revis, you can build a defense around a player like that.