The projected spots open/Offseason predictions

So it is kind of hard to project what your team is going to do until you know what needs you have.

Right now we can only guess what they would be. However I think we can talk about what we think and would like to happen. I won't get too in depth with the contract talk and keep the focus more on players.

Offense - 24

QB - 2 - Brady, Jimmy G
TE - 3 - Gronk Wright Hooman
RB - 6 - Vereen Blount Grey White Develin Bolden (Ridley lost due to money and Bolden kept for STs)
WR - 5 - Lafell Edelman Amendola Dobson Slater (Tyms to PS and Slater kept for STs)
OL - 8 - Solder Connolly Stork Wendell Vollmer Cannon Kline Flemming

So obviously RB is full. TE for Hooman is upgradable but a low priority. Amendola stays assuming he restructures which I think he will. Dobson takes Tyms spot as he should. QB needs no explanation. What I want to focus on is the OL.

I like this years starters and would look to bring them all back. Cannon has shown though he his no guard he is a solid backup tackle and can be retained for low money. Kline has had 2 chances to show his worth this season. KC and Det in the 4th. I think he did well both times so is worth keeping. Devey is gone or PS. Flemming is kept on the basis of blocking TE and seeing how he develops beyond that. Obviously another Guard he is an option for the draft to replace either Wendell or Connolly soon but nothing else jumps out as a need. Basically standing pat assuming this off season is an option on offense.

Defense - 24

DE - 4 - Jones Nink Ayers Moore (Buchanan is wait and see but Moore looks decent).
DT - 5 - Wilfork Branch Siliga Jones Easley (Wilfork for 1 more at a fair offer is possible and i want it)
LB - 5 - Mayo Collins Hightower Casillas White (keep white for STs)
CB - 6 - Revis Browner Arrington Dennard Ryan Butler
S - 4 - McCourty Chung Harmon Ebner Wilson (Wilson gone due to money possibly though)

Assuming Contracts with Revis/McCourty/Wilfork/Ayers/ect... Get done. I see this as a solid group. Ayers as a 3rd DE is the best option at that spot they have had in a while. Moore is may develop more. DT is about if you sign Wilfork. If you do it is a deep group. You might want to get a replacement for him in the draft though. LB is deep. We usually only play 2 and we have 4. Casillas has shown decent coverages skills and is a bit of a Collins backup. Assuming the CBs come back you are set. Safety could use another body but your starters are locked and you can always choose to keep Wilson if you like him or sign a cheap vet free agent for a year. Basically standing pat assuming this off season is an option on defense.

STs - Set. not going into it. Maybe a LS but not gonna waste time on it.

So there are spots on this team that could be stronger and deeper but if you bring this group back you are not truly forced to pick anything in this draft. Obviously a Guard and DT and SS are options but not dire needs. We have good starters at all those spots.

This does not mean trade your entire draft away. It simply means maybe BB is thinking he has a good all around club as is and though there are some spots that could be improved or made deeper he might not feel the need to address any one spot in the draft if we resign the key players. Maybe the first pick the Patriots take could be a player we don't suspect.

This might not sound like rocket science, but depending on how management views our free agents will directly effect how we deal with the draft.

As an example, if the above were to play out, which I hope, but have my doubts, I could easily see us try desperately in to next years draft possibly a few times.

On the other hand, if one of Browner, Revis, or McCourty walk, I could see some high draft usage used in the secondary. If Wilfork is cut or retired, all of a sudden we could be looking at Dline. If Mayo is cut, or not healthy enough, we could see ILB/olb become the major priority.

All that to say, there are a lot of moving parts when it comes to the pats, as there always are. I think we all have an ideal, which seems to be pretty close to the status quo, but management has never been shy to go against the grain either.

I.M. Fletcher said:

If the above were to play out, which I hope, but have my doubts, I could easily see us try desperately in to next years draft possibly a few times.

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I have no idea what you are trying to say. Please clarify.

BobDigital said:

So it is kind of hard to project what your team is going to do until you know what needs you have.

Right now we can only guess what they would be. However I think we can talk about what we think and would like to happen. I won't get too in depth with the contract talk and keep the focus more on players.

Offense - 24

QB - 2 - Brady, Jimmy G
TE - 3 - Gronk Wright Hooman
RB - 6 - Vereen Blount Grey White Develin Bolden (Ridley lost due to money and Bolden kept for STs)
WR - 5 - Lafell Edelman Amendola Dobson Slater (Tyms to PS and Slater kept for STs)
OL - 8 - Solder Connolly Stork Wendell Vollmer Cannon Kline Flemming

So obviously RB is full. TE for Hooman is upgradable but a low priority. Amendola stays assuming he restructures which I think he will. Dobson takes Tyms spot as he should. QB needs no explanation. What I want to focus on is the OL.

I like this years starters and would look to bring them all back. Cannon has shown though he his no guard he is a solid backup tackle and can be retained for low money. Kline has had 2 chances to show his worth this season. KC and Det in the 4th. I think he did well both times so is worth keeping. Devey is gone or PS. Flemming is kept on the basis of blocking TE and seeing how he develops beyond that. Obviously another Guard he is an option for the draft to replace either Wendell or Connolly soon but nothing else jumps out as a need. Basically standing pat assuming this off season is an option on offense.

Defense - 24

DE - 4 - Jones Nink Ayers Moore (Buchanan is wait and see but Moore looks decent).
DT - 5 - Wilfork Branch Siliga Jones Easley (Wilfork for 1 more at a fair offer is possible and i want it)
LB - 5 - Mayo Collins Hightower Casillas White (keep white for STs)
CB - 6 - Revis Browner Arrington Dennard Ryan Butler
S - 4 - McCourty Chung Harmon Ebner Wilson (Wilson gone due to money possibly though)

Assuming Contracts with Revis/McCourty/Wilfork/Ayers/ect... Get done. I see this as a solid group. Ayers as a 3rd DE is the best option at that spot they have had in a while. Moore is may develop more. DT is about if you sign Wilfork. If you do it is a deep group. You might want to get a replacement for him in the draft though. LB is deep. We usually only play 2 and we have 4. Casillas has shown decent coverages skills and is a bit of a Collins backup. Assuming the CBs come back you are set. Safety could use another body but your starters are locked and you can always choose to keep Wilson if you like him or sign a cheap vet free agent for a year. Basically standing pat assuming this off season is an option on defense.

STs - Set. not going into it. Maybe a LS but not gonna waste time on it.

So there are spots on this team that could be stronger and deeper but if you bring this group back you are not truly forced to pick anything in this draft. Obviously a Guard and DT and SS are options but not dire needs. We have good starters at all those spots.

This does not mean trade your entire draft away. It simply means maybe BB is thinking he has a good all around club as is and though there are some spots that could be improved or made deeper he might not feel the need to address any one spot in the draft if we resign the key players. Maybe the first pick the Patriots take could be a player we don't suspect.

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Nice job.

I think BB has put together the best and deepest roster that he has ever had, on all 3 units, including STs. There are very few weaknesses now that the OL has come together so well. Continuity, and upgrading the long term talent, should be the goal. Both cap space and roster spots will be very, very tight.

Offense:

- QB is set with Brady and Garoppolo.
- RB is loaded with depth (Blount, Gray, White, Gaffney). Ridley and Vereen are UFAs. I count Develin with the TEs and Bolden as a STer.
- WR: Edelman and Lafell are a very solid start. Dobson will hopefully come around, and will certainly get at least 1 more year to show what he has. Amendola is a potential cap casualty. His replacement could be on the PS (Boyce), or come from the draft or FA. WR depth is an issue.
- TE: Gronk and Wright are awesome. Develin is an RFA, and should be back. Hooman can be upgraded if possible.
- OL: Solder and Vollmer are solid, despite some shaky play early on. Stork looks like a 10 year starter, and Fleming looks like a solid backup tackle/guard and 6th lineman/TE in jumbo packages. Ryan Wendell has re-invented himself. Dan Connolly and Marcus Cannon are UFAs, and Josh Kline and Jordan Devey are bottom-feeders.

The bottom line: The Pats will hopefully re-sign Vereen. They should add another 1-2 linemen of the caliber of Stork/Fleming or better. Depth at TE and WR (and possibly RB) could be addressed.

Defense:

- DT: Wilfork is playing well, again though he is 33 and has a big cap hit. Dominique Easley has shown flashes through the injuries. Sealver Siliga (RFA) and Chris Jones are solid depth. Alan Branch (UFA) has helped solidify the run defense.
- DE: Jones and Ninkovich are solid, though Jones' hip injury is concerning and Ninkovich is on the wrong side of 30. Akeem Ayers (UFA) provides valuable rotational depth at both DE and LB. Zach Moore looks promising. Michael Buchanan has shown flashes, but injuries and inconsistency have been an issue.
- LB: Jerod Mayo is coming off IR for the second straight year and has a big cap hit. Dont'a Hightower had a breakout pro bowl caliber year, and Jamie Collins isn't far behind. Jonathan Casillas provides nice depth, versatility, and ST ability. Darius Fleming and Skinner are on the PS, and James Morris will be coming off IR. I count Chris White (UFA) as a STer only.
- S: Devin McCourty and Pat Chung are both UFAs. Nate Ebner shows flashes, but is still in development. Tavon Wilson and Duron Harmon are depth/ST at best. Don Jones is mainly an STer.
- CB: the best unit in the NFL. Darrelle Revis has been worth every penny, but has a huge cap hit for 2015. Brandon Browner

The bottom line: the Pats have their best defense since 2003-2004, and should try very hard to keep in intact. McCourty and Revis need to be extended. Pat Chung, Akeem Ayers, Alan Branch and Jonathan Casillas should all be re-signed if at all possible. Cap space will be tight. Jerod Mayo's contract could be up for restructuring. Vince Wilfork probably gets another year, but age and contract size are issues, and finding a long term successor alone with one more edge player are probably the main priorities for long term additions.

Special Teams:

- Kicking specialists: Stephen Gostkowski is one of the best in the NFL, but is a UFA and is price for a kicker. Ryan Allen is an above average punter. Danny Aiken is shaky, and could be upgraded.
- STers: Matt Slater (UFA) is a multiple pro bowler, and still playing that way. Nate Ebner is just as good, and Jonathan Casillas may be, too. Don Jones, Chris White (UFA), Brandon Bolden (UFA) and Pat Chung (UFA)are all studs, and Tavon Wilson is pretty solid. I've never seen this much depth and talent on STs.

The bottom line: An incredible unit, but roster spots and cap space will be tight. There are a lot of UFAs, and they won't all be back.

mayoclinic said:

I have no idea what you are trying to say. Please clarify.

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I think I missed a word or two. If we were able to maintain all of our important Ufas this summer, without cutting any other important piece, I could see management using the opportunity to push picks in to future years.

Not saying we don't have room for upgrades, but I wonder if they would prefer to push picks in to upcoming drafts to cover the eventual holes that will exist. There are a few potential holes that need filling, but probably with less expensive draft pieces this year.

I.M. Fletcher said:

I think I missed a word or two. If we were able to maintain all of our important Ufas this summer, without cutting any other important piece, I could see management using the opportunity to push picks in to future years.

Not saying we don't have room for upgrades, but I wonder if they would prefer to push picks in to upcoming drafts to cover the eventual holes that will exist. There are a few potential holes that need filling, but probably with less expensive draft pieces this year.

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Thanks for the clarification. Interesting thought.

As I mentioned in my post above, I think the two tightest areas for the Pats will be (1) cap space and (2) roster spots. Those are somewhat in conflict with one another. Rookies are a great source of low cap hit depth, but an uncertainty in terms of replacement value.

I could see the following:

- 1-2 offensive linemen, either to upgrade Devey/Kline or to replace Connolly/Cannon
- 1 TE, to replace/upgrade Hooman
- 1 WR, to replace Amendola/upgrade Tyms
- 1 RB, for competition
- 1 rotational DE, for depth and as a long term Ninkovich successor
- 1 DT, as a long term Wilfork successor (or to replace Branch if not re-signed)
- 1 LB, for depth (though not a given if Casillas is re-signed, with Morris coming off IR and Fleming/Skinner on the PS)
- 1 safety for depth and to upgrade one of Wilson/Ebner (not a given)
- 1-2 LS/STers, to replace/upgrade Aiken and some UFA STers

That's up to 9-11 players. I think the end number will probably be a bit lower. We currently have 7 picks (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 2 4ths, 6th from TB, 7th from Tenn) and will likely get 2 comp picks, plus UFAs. So I think there's a good chance that BB uses some of his draft capital to trade up and move around. Trading into the future is definitely a good thought, but will depend on the values in the draft, and what someone is willing to offer.

I.M. Fletcher said:

I think I missed a word or two. If we were able to maintain all of our important Ufas this summer, without cutting any other important piece, I could see management using the opportunity to push picks in to future years.

Not saying we don't have room for upgrades, but I wonder if they would prefer to push picks in to upcoming drafts to cover the eventual holes that will exist. There are a few potential holes that need filling, but probably with less expensive draft pieces this year.

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Patriots is already a very Young team. BB and TB aint getting younger, you maximise there value, anything else would be stupid.

I.M. Fletcher said:

I think I missed a word or two. If we were able to maintain all of our important Ufas this summer, without cutting any other important piece, I could see management using the opportunity to push picks in to future years.

Not saying we don't have room for upgrades, but I wonder if they would prefer to push picks in to upcoming drafts to cover the eventual holes that will exist. There are a few potential holes that need filling, but probably with less expensive draft pieces this year.

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Another option is that they could draft like they did in 2011 with an eye for the next year. None of Solder, Vereen, Ridley, Mallett, or Cannon were projected to take starting roles right away. Solder was a backup to Light and Vollmer, Vereen to Woodhead, Ridley to Green-Ellis, Mallett to Hoyer. But they were all ready to take on their starting roles (or no. 2 QB role) for the next year.

In this circumstance it might be good to look at Wilfork's eventual replacement, or Connolly's/Wendell's, or replacing someone with a potential large cap hit in 2016 that could offer good cap savings by cutting.

I think we see this team through the same lens. The mankins trade and compensatory picks will definitely create a lot of flexibility come draft night. With 5 potential picks within the first 105, there is a lot of artillery to move up or out of this draft. The comp pick obviously cannot be moved, but it could create a situation where we are going back to back picks, which Belichick loves to do.

Hammer of Thor said:

Another option is that they could draft like they did in 2011 with an eye for the next year. None of Solder, Vereen, Ridley, Mallett, or Cannon were projected to take starting roles right away. Solder was a backup to Light and Vollmer, Vereen to Woodhead, Ridley to Green-Ellis, Mallett to Hoyer. But they were all ready to take on their starting roles (or no. 2 QB role) for the next year.

In this circumstance it might be good to look at Wilfork's eventual replacement, or Connolly's/Wendell's, or replacing someone with a potential large cap hit in 2016 that could offer good cap savings by cutting.

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I agree, to some extent. The issue is roster spots. Suppose you draft Wilfork's eventual replacement (a DT like Malcolm Brown, Danny Shelton, Eddie Goldman or Jordan Phillips). Then, if Alan Branch is re-signed, we would have 6 DTs on the roster: Wilfork, Easley, Branch, rookie, Siliga, Jones. We might manage that if we kept only 4 DEs (Easley could play both positions), but if Ayers is re-signed we already have 5 in Chandler Jones, Ninkovich, Ayers, Moore and Buchanan, and drafting a long term Ninkovich replacement is also a draft possibility. So there is a definite numbers game to be addressed. Trading into the future avoids that problem for a year.

Luxusdk said:

Patriots is already a very Young team. BB and TB aint getting younger, you maximise there value, anything else would be stupid.

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I would turn the phrasing "maximize their value" around on you. Let's say we bring back the whole band next year, is it maximizing a draft picks value by having him sit 80% of snaps as a rookie? Outside of a pass rusher, that isn't exactly maximizing your most valued assets as a franchise. when most of their value is tied to the salary structure, and you just burned off their cheapest year of employment.

So age of BB and TB12 has little to do with it, and more about capitalizing on the assets available.

So you dont think there would be 2-3 ppl in this draft there could upgrade Patriots 2014 roster..?? And even if a rookie have to sit 80% out cause Vince plays, its still worth it for Patriots. Tradeing into 16 or 17 could be in a periode where Patriots QB and HC chance. Do you know how long BB stays ? Because i dont but i doubt BB would save draft Capital for a furture HC.

I have stated a few times that I there are definitely a few holes we will have to plug. My question is whether BB will value those holes as 1st round holes, or 3rd round holes.

If he thinks he has a major hole that needs immediate remedy, than obviously he will address it, or even move up to do so. I am more of the mindset that most of our holes are secondary, and not necessarily primary issues. I would love to see BB create another "rolling pick" that he can bounce year to year, and cash in when the hole is obvious.

Hammer of Thor said:

Another option is that they could draft like they did in 2011 with an eye for the next year. None of Solder, Vereen, Ridley, Mallett, or Cannon were projected to take starting roles right away. Solder was a backup to Light and Vollmer, Vereen to Woodhead, Ridley to Green-Ellis, Mallett to Hoyer. But they were all ready to take on their starting roles (or no. 2 QB role) for the next year.

In this circumstance it might be good to look at Wilfork's eventual replacement, or Connolly's/Wendell's, or replacing someone with a potential large cap hit in 2016 that could offer good cap savings by cutting.

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That's the way I'm looking at this draft. See my latest mock in other thread. I think G is the only position a rookie can probably start. And, I don't like to take one in the first. I think you can find a starting guard in the 2nd or 3rd round. Or, even later.

Always need pass rushers. Looking for VW's replacement first. He's a FA after 2015. Can use an edge rusher. Eventual replacements for Wendell and Connolly. And, safety. One good thing about our needs. Not exactly flashy positions such as; QB, CB, WR and RB. Might find some good value at the interior positions we could use some youth.

Definitely think they'll try to replace Amendola. Not worth his new money of over 4million (!).

Good point though in that drafts are tricky because you don't know who they'll try to resign or be able to.

If they sign Branch and Siliga comes back strong then DT is less of a need.

patsfaninpa said:

That's the way I'm looking at this draft. See my latest mock in other thread. I think G is the only position a rookie can probably start. And, I don't like to take one in the first. I think you can find a starting guard in the 2nd or 3rd round. Or, even later.

Always need pass rushers. Looking for VW's replacement first. He's a FA after 2015. Can use an edge rusher. Eventual replacements for Wendell and Connolly. And, safety. One good thing about our needs. Not exactly flashy positions such as; QB, CB, WR and RB. Might find some good value at the interior positions we could use some youth.

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Wilfork is signed through 2016, FWIW. But I like the idea of drafting his replacement, either this year or next. This year's class could be excellent (Danny Shelton, Malcolm Brown, Jordan Phillips, Eddie Goldman, Carl Davis), as is the edge rusher class. Get those 2 plus 1-2 OLs and the rest is just depth.

mayoclinic said:

I agree, to some extent. The issue is roster spots. Suppose you draft Wilfork's eventual replacement (a DT like Malcolm Brown, Danny Shelton, Eddie Goldman or Jordan Phillips). Then, if Alan Branch is re-signed, we would have 6 DTs on the roster: Wilfork, Easley, Branch, rookie, Siliga, Jones. We might manage that if we kept only 4 DEs (Easley could play both positions), but if Ayers is re-signed we already have 5 in Chandler Jones, Ninkovich, Ayers, Moore and Buchanan, and drafting a long term Ninkovich replacement is also a draft possibility. So there is a definite numbers game to be addressed. Trading into the future avoids that problem for a year.

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Unfortunately that's a balancing act that they'll have to play each year. There's generally a good reason why Parcells used to hate playing rookies and why Belichick constantly says that the 2nd year jump is a huge consideration and key. It's just tough to transition to the NFL for the most part. So what do you do? For example, on the interior, do you keep Branch/Siliga/Jones in 2015, then after the season cut Wilfork and draft his replacement in the 2016 draft, and rotate him as a rookie with those guys? Or do you draft say Malcolm Brown in 2015, cut one of the 3 aforementioned guys for 2015, and rotate Brown in as a rookie and have him take over full time for Wilfork in 2016?

It's a very tough balancing act and I'm sure happy I don't have to make those decisions.... Personally I lean towards the latter path, thinking back to the Light/Solder situation. That all assumes they actually really like certain DTs in the 2015 class. I'd certainly not want them to take a DT solely because they feel the need to groom Wilfork's replacement while passing on a stud prospect at another position (i.e. drafting for need versus drafting for value).

Hammer of Thor said:

Unfortunately that's a balancing act that they'll have to play each year. There's generally a good reason why Parcells used to hate playing rookies and why Belichick constantly says that the 2nd year jump is a huge consideration and key. It's just tough to transition to the NFL for the most part. So what do you do? For example, on the interior, do you keep Branch/Siliga/Jones in 2015, then after the season cut Wilfork and draft his replacement in the 2016 draft, and rotate him as a rookie with those guys? Or do you draft say Malcolm Brown in 2015, cut one of the 3 aforementioned guys for 2015, and rotate Brown in as a rookie and have him take over full time for Wilfork in 2016?

It's a very tough balancing act and I'm sure happy I don't have to make those decisions.... Personally I lean towards the latter path, thinking back to the Light/Solder situation. That all assumes they actually really like certain DTs in the 2015 class. I'd certainly not want them to take a DT solely because they feel the need to groom Wilfork's replacement while passing on a stud prospect at another position (i.e. drafting for need versus drafting for value).

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I'd probably vote for the latter path. Injuries have a way of cropping up and cutting into depth, so being over-loaded isn't necessarily a bad thing. If push comes to shove and it looks like you may have to cut someone decent in a roster crunch, there's always the chance of trading them to a team that's low on the waiver order and getting something in return.

I still feel like they will take a RB in the mid rounds, but it could really depend on how they view White and Gray. They aren't going to count on Gaffney for any contribution, but do they think White can replace Vereen? Do they think Gray can be a back they pair with Blount, they should theoretically complement each other well, or do they view him as JAG

meatface said:

I still feel like they will take a RB in the mid rounds, but it could really depend on how they view White and Gray. They aren't going to count on Gaffney for any contribution, but do they think White can replace Vereen? Do they think Gray can be a back they pair with Blount, they should theoretically complement each other well, or do they view him as JAG

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As someone else noted, Gaffney != Armstead or Ballard; the odds of Gaffney being able to contribute next year are a lot higher than the others were.