My Blueprint for the Defense

mayoclinic said:

Nice read on Alan Branch:

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/patriots_nfl/new_england_patriots/2014/11/branch_operations

I thought Branch was going to be another Haloti Ngata when he came out in 2007. Hasn't happened. But since he's joined the Pats, they have given up 62 rushing yards over 2 games. Far too small a sample size to pass judgment, but a dramatic difference in the run defense: 130 YPG average over the first 8 games, including 3 games of over 190 yards rushing and 4 over 150. Obviously Denver and Indy aren't great rushing teams. It will be interesting to see how much the run defense continues to improve with Branch, and the eventual return of Sealver Siliga.

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mosi's man said:

it's hard to give branch too much credit for the first game when he played 14 snaps. he was better in the second game but indy gave up against the run pretty early. if we can get him at a discount, then great but we need some push upfield from the interior and we just don't have it yet. with saliga, wilfork, and branch the run defense should be stout but it doesn't solve the problems we have on passing downs. against running qbs (and these are the teams that give us the most difficulty) bb clearly has the d-ends play more containment to keep the qb in the pocket. that's a great strategy if we can push the pocket, but if we can't the qb just sits there all day. hell, even geno smith can find someone open when he sits there all day. we need more interior push. maybe easley will provide this but are we sure of that yet? as much as i appreciate chris jones, i think to make this defense truly elite we need more push up the middle.

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mayoclinic said:

Branch played 12 snaps against Denver, 15 against Indy, according to Reiss. Not a huge difference.

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-...atriots-defensive-snaps-ironman-rob-ninkovich

Right now Branch is mainly a base option, and the Pats are playing primarily sub. This is not 2003. But he's helpful shoring up the run in the base, and as he gets more comfortable he could possible get some snaps in sub to help provide some of that "push" up the middle. As Andy Johnson has noted, BB may be moving towards a "sub is the base" approach in which the goal is to be able to play sub all the time and still effectively stop the run. That's currently a work in progress, as you note.

One of the things that is most interesting to me about the projected 2015 DT class is that there are a number of big guys who are more than just space eaters and who show the ability to get push and penetration and disrupt the pocket. Malcolm Brown, Danny Shelton, Eddie Goldman, Ellis McCarthy, Jordan Phillips. Very strong group if they all come out.

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mosi's man said:

i think this is an important point. as bb seeks out greater versitality in linebackers, dbs, etc. he'll need a few tackles who can both stop the run and give some push to make the entire package optimal. when you are in base so infrequently and teams don't really have "running downs" any longer, is a run stuffer like branch really very valuable on anything other than short yardage or the goal line? i think this is what has made the easley selection so attractive. he may be able to play in base as well as on passing downs while moving along the line. wilfork could do this for years also, but that's probably coming to an end. can saliga? i don't know. branch i doubt it, i don't care what his numbers in 2007 suggest. i'd like to see more investment made in a player who can be able to play base but also get upfield when the qb drops back. i don't see such a player on the roster aside from easley. do you?

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"At 6'6" and 334 pounds, Phillips has unmatched size, length and strength at the position," Miller says. "He's also showing quickness and burst off the ball with surprisingly good leverage for his height. And Phillips comes into the NFL with experience in the 3-4 defense, something few defensive tackles get in college football."

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mayoclinic said:

I think Branch is plenty valuable as a 2 down run stuff and depth. Not a primary part of the defense, but I think he can become a nice low-cost complementary piece, and I hope he is re-signed.

I think that one of the side-benefits of what BB has been doing with Easley this year is to develop him into a 3 down player, both in terms of versatility and in terms of combat skills. Easley has some experience playing NT and is fairly strong for his frame. Develop his combat skills so that he can be more than just a sub rusher and you have a really strong weapon to add to the mix.

I also think the DT class is one of the under-the-radar stories of this draft. The DE's are justifiably getting a lot of attention. But the DTs are really, really good. DE/DT hybrids (Leonard Williams, Arik Amstead and Marcus Harrison), big DTs with athleticism and explosiveness (Shelton, Brown, Goldman, McCarthy, Phillips, Carl Davis), penetrating DTs (Michael Bennett, Christian Covington, Gabe Wright). Really solid group. Some good players will slip through the cracks.

Jordan Phillips is someone who has been in my mocks since last summer. Malcolm Brown from Texas is getting a lot of deserved attention right now, but Phillips (a RS sophomore) may have even more upside. Incredibly athletic for his size - a more explosive Alan Branch, if you will. Matt Miller had him going to the Pats at #31 in his latest mock:



http://newsok.com/ou-football-jorda...st-bleacher-report-mock-draft/article/5367940

A guy like Phillips, Brown or Shelton, who can be a "playmaker out of the nose tackle spot" would definitely have tremendous value in both base and sub.

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mosi's man said:

i'm not sure yet how much browner adds.

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mosi's man said:

no question browner was "synergistic" today. be played very well in a near perfect matchup for him. i give him credit. were you so certain of his worth last week when fleener was beating him repeatedly?

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mayoclinic said:

Browner and Revis are synergistic with each other. Revis can match up with and shut down anyone. Browner matches up so well against bigger WRs and TEs. The combination, along with guys like Ryan, Arrington, Butler and Dennard, allows BB to mix up his matchups and create confusion, while being able to match up against anyone.

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"This is probably the best group of guys I've been around, secondary-wise, where everyone is just talented," he said. "We can do so many versatile things in our defense."

Revis, now in his eighth NFL season, is the centerpiece of it all .... But as is the case in football, it takes more than one player to produce a strong defense, and Revis and Browner give the Patriots a potent one-two punch on the outside.

"I don't know if there's a group of corners playing better than our group right now," marveled safety Devin McCourty. Revis goes even deeper than that, pointing out the contributions of nickelback Kyle Arrington and another top reserve, Logan Ryan, who had the unit's lone turnover Sunday.

"I feel our coaches do a great job using the talent we have and to match up with other offenses, and match up with them well," he said, adding that the Patriots were motivated by the Lions referring to themselves as the best defense in the NFL during the days leading into the game. "If you look at our roster, we have talent across the board everywhere. I think Bill and them really dial in -- if it is matchups, what guy is the best for that matchup, I think we really do a great job of that."

Belichick explained after the game how the Patriots go through the process of putting together game plans, and how sometimes there are multiple scenarios they work through before coming to a final decision. Then there are other situations where, "it's obvious, we all look at it and it takes about five minutes to all say, 'OK, this is how we want to play this game.'"

The plan against the Lions seemed to fall into the first category, and it turned out to be another winner, highlighted by Revis' work on Tate.

"It's a different plan every week," Revis said. "It's a tough job but at the same time I'm the man they call for to do it sometimes -- to play inside, to play outside, to do whatever, to help the team. The big goal is to help the team. I call us hybrids. We're all interchangeable."

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mayoclinic said:

Revis describes exactly capability in a nice article by Mike Reiss:



http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-...0/darrelle-revis-the-queen-piece-in-secondary

Personally, I would go to great lengths to keep that kind of talent, depth and versatility in the secondary, given the pass-oriented nature of the game. That may require some sacrifices elsewhere. But personally, I would do everything possible to keep the secondary intact for 2015.

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I.M. Fletcher said:

I agree, but boy will it be tough. Just doing some basic calculations, I think it will come down to whether they can get Wilfork to restructure his salary for a second straight season, or to simply release him. I doubt that happens, as he has more than proven his value this season. The other side of this is that Browner is not overpaid by any means at 5.5mil, so approaching him for a re-structure may not be go over well, unless they just convert his roster bonus to a signing bonus, to stretch the effect over two years.

Obviously, there will be a lot of things that will change between now and then, and plenty of surprising things as well, but its scary to think that this team wont have to a ton of maneuvering to keep almost every important piece in place for next season as well.

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mosi's man said:

One other question: I'm not trying to cause a stir, but why do people think that Branch garnered so little interest from the rest of the league for so long? I recognize he's "scheme limited" but to be as valuable as some have thought him to be, yet be a street free agent for half a season is unusual. No?

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mosi's man said:

I'm no capologist and I'm sorry if my math is mistaken, but after reviewing things at "overthecap" this is what I have found: If we make a few assumptions such as; 1. The Pats resign Revis for 15mill/yr, 2. Mayo restructures his deal down to 8mil/yr, 3. We cut Amendola, then the Pats would be about 14-15 million under the cap going into next season. That accounts for Hernandez coming off the books and savings from letting Wilson, Amendola, and Connolly go with additional savings from Brady, Mayo, and Revis. This would be absent letting Browner or Gostkowski go, or the signing of any rookies, but it accounts for increased salaries for Solder, Gronk, Vollmer, and Browner. Obviously further reductions from Gostkowski or Browner being let go would be added to the mix and boost that number to 18-20 million. There are many others on this site who can do a better job of accounting than I, but that was my rough estimate. It appears to me that if the Pats want to stand pat on defense this looks to be well within their grasp.

One other question: I'm not trying to cause a stir, but why do people think that Branch garnered so little interest from the rest of the league for so long? I recognize he's "scheme limited" but to be as valuable as some have thought him to be, yet be a street free agent for half a season is unusual. No?

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Marinlik said:

I recommend checking Patscap.com by Patsfan member Miguel. I think that it's the best salary cap page for the Patriots.

I don't think it's too weird that Alan Branch was on the street. He was arrested on a DUI 2 a.m saturday morning when they had a game later that saturday. I don't think coaches look to favorably on guys that are out drinking the night before a game.

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mosi's man said:

I'm no capologist and I'm sorry if my math is mistaken, but after reviewing things at "overthecap" this is what I have found: If we make a few assumptions such as; 1. The Pats resign Revis for 15mill/yr, 2. Mayo restructures his deal down to 8mil/yr, 3. We cut Amendola, then the Pats would be about 14-15 million under the cap going into next season. That accounts for Hernandez coming off the books and savings from letting Wilson, Amendola, and Connolly go with additional savings from Brady, Mayo, and Revis. This would be absent letting Browner or Gostkowski go, or the signing of any rookies, but it accounts for increased salaries for Solder, Gronk, Vollmer, and Browner. Obviously further reductions from Gostkowski or Browner being let go would be added to the mix and boost that number to 18-20 million. There are many others on this site who can do a better job of accounting than I, but that was my rough estimate. It appears to me that if the Pats want to stand pat on defense this looks to be well within their grasp.

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mosi's man said:

By NFL standards that's a relatively mundane offense.

I read Miguels stuff, which is both excellent and, for someone with my limited accounting skills, confusing. Again, I may be way off in my estimates and if so, I apologize. I also realized a few minutes ago that I hadn't factored in McCourty's new deal, which would significantly affect the numbers. However, I still think the Pats are in good shape for next year, and if they were to make some hard decisions on their kicker and others, would be in great shape while still retaining their core group.

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