Since I have little expectation NE will lean on the run, I thought I'd break down Detriot's pass D a little. I've gone through and totaled the average pass O they've faced and compared it to their pass D. Mathematicians among you will bristle because, since I don't have time to weight it by pass attempts, I'm averaging averages. A serious no-no, but it's going to have to do for now.
Yards per attempt
Offense 7.0 - Detroit D 6.9
Passer rating
Offense 88.5 - Detroit D 80.8
Sacks
Offense 23.9 - Detroit D 26
Picks
Offense 8.5 - Detroit D 12
Completion %
Offense 62.3 - Detroit D 63.6
Passing TDs
Offense 16.4 - Detroit D 12
Sacks, comp% and YPA are all in line with the opponent's figures, meaning that Detroit's D comes off as average in those categories. The PR discrepancy comes down to a higher interception rate and fewer passing TDs.
Interestingly, roughly 30% of the gap between average and allowed passing TDs and passer rating is attributable to the Green Bay game. If that was a legitimately great performance, then Detroit can give NE some problems, even in the passing game. If it was more due to timing, then there is plenty of reason to think NE will have a good deal of success throwing on Detroit's secondary.
FWIW, DVOA considers Detroit the #3 pass defense. This figure includes the Green Bay game, of course, but it does account for a lot of what I've broken down.
