My Blueprint for the Defense

patsfaninpa · Nov 19, 2014

Patrick Chung was the 2nd pick of the second round in 2009. Jamie Collins was a second rounder after we traded down. It's 7 first rounders, two seconds, Ninko and Browner.

manxman2601 · Nov 19, 2014

patsfaninpa said:
Patrick Chung was the 2nd pick of the second round in 2009. Jamie Collins was a second rounder after we traded down. It's 7 first rounders, two seconds, Ninko and Browner.

And Browner is a fairly premium FA signing. Nobody can claim a lack of investment in this defense. I suspect the Rams are about the only NFL team that can compare.

mayoclinic · Nov 19, 2014

manxman2601 said:
And Browner is a fairly premium FA signing. Nobody can claim a lack of investment in this defense. I suspect the Rams are about the only NFL team that can compare.

The Rams have an incredibly high level of investment with 9 top 41 picks: Chris Long (#2, 2008), Mark Barron (#7, 2012; trade), Aaron Donald (#13, 2012), Robert Quinn (#14, 2011), Michael Brockers (#14, 2012), Alec Ogletree (#30, 2013), James Laurinaitis (#35, 2009) and Janorris Jenkins (#39, 2012) and Lamarcus Joyner (#41, 2014).

Denver comes close: DeMarcus Ware (#11, 2005; high priced FA signing), Von Miller (#2, 2011), Sylvester Williams (#28, 2013), Derek Wolfe (#36, 2012), Aqib Talib (#22, 2008; high priced FA signing), TJ Ward (#42, 2010; high priced FA signing)

Of course that terrible defense in Seattle has only Earl Thomas (#14, 2010), Bruce Irvin (#15, 2012) and Bobby Wagner (#47m 2012) as top 50.

Luxusdk · Nov 19, 2014

Remmeber Akeem Ayers is a high second also. Could see him staying at RDE with Jones moveing to LDE NeXT year.

manxman2601 · Nov 19, 2014

Luxusdk said:
Remmeber Akeem Ayers is a high second also. Could see him staying at RDE with Jones moveing to LDE NeXT year.

Good point on his draft pick although I'm not convinced Ayers is a starter. Much prefer him as a key backup and rotation guy.

Luxusdk · Nov 19, 2014

manxman2601 said:
Good point on his draft pick although I'm not convinced Ayers is a starter. Much prefer him as a key backup and rotation guy.

Wouldn't mind 3 DE and 3 DT was "starters" with rotation. And its a part of a 3 man rotation Ayers would be a "starter"..

mayoclinic · Nov 19, 2014

Luxusdk said:
Wouldn't mind 3 DE and 3 DT was "starters" with rotation. And its a part of a 3 man rotation Ayers would be a "starter"..

I very much like Ayers as part of a rotation, with versatility at both DE and LB, and if he keeps playing at his current level I very much hope the Pats extend him.

captain stone · Nov 20, 2014

Still would like to see a starting-caliber SS & a pass-rushing DE added, but I'll wait to see how it looks
when - or sadly, if - Chandler Jones returns.

patsfaninpa · Nov 20, 2014

captain stone said:
Still would like to see a starting-caliber SS & a pass-rushing DE added, but I'll wait to see how it looks
when - or sadly, if - Chandler Jones returns.

I won't be surprised if we move Logan Ryan to safety next year. He's got the size. And, is a good tackler. Most good hits draw a 15 yard penalty now. So, having a big-hitter back there is more of a negative than anything. Just want a sure tackler who can cover now. We don't really play a FS/SS defense anyway. Just a left or right one.

I.M. Fletcher · Nov 20, 2014

I see a very high probability that one of McCourty, Revis, or browner are not here next season. Between those 3, and Arrington, that would be around 25-30mill in cap to one area. That is very high investment for any belichick position.

I will say browner is the most likely to be cut given his contract has little guarantees, but I could see a situation where each could find their way out of foxboro.

With that in mind, I could see a high draft expense at the secondary positions, even with it being a relatively weak class.

mayoclinic · Nov 20, 2014

I.M. Fletcher said:
I see a very high probability that one of McCourty, Revis, or browner are not here next season. Between those 3, and Arrington, that would be around 25-30mill in cap to one area. That is very high investment for any belichick position.

I will say browner is the most likely to be cut given his contract has little guarantees, but I could see a situation where each could find their way out of foxboro.

With that in mind, I could see a high draft expense at the secondary positions, even with it being a relatively weak class.

I certainly hope that is not the case. BTW, the 2014 cap hit for those 3 players is $15.3M ($7.5M Revis, $5.1M McCourty, $2.7M Browner), which is not exactly chump change.

patsfaninpa · Nov 20, 2014

mayoclinic said:
I certainly hope that is not the case. BTW, the 2015 cap hit for those 3 players is $15.3M ($7.5M Revis, $5.1M McCourty, $2.7M Browner), which is not exactly chump change.

I hope we keep the vets. Belichick tried to build a secondary thru the draft and squandered numerous high draft picks. Revis cap number will go down if we extend him. McCourty isn't going anywhere. Those are must-do signings. If we have to let go Browner or Arrington. That's palpable. But, I'd like to move Ryan to safety which makes Arrington and Browner more valuable

mayoclinic · Nov 20, 2014

captain stone said:
Still would like to see a starting-caliber SS & a pass-rushing DE added, but I'll wait to see how it looks when - or sadly, if - Chandler Jones returns.

SMY claims that Jones won't be back until the playoffs:

Those who have been asking about Chandler Jones: source said today patriots are hoping he'll be back for postseason

https://twitter.com/shalisemyoung/status/535214580721790976

I think this increases the priority for a DE in 2015 who can play in both base and sub. Oakman, Fowler, Dupree, Calhoun, Hunter (rapidly becoming a favorite).

I.M. Fletcher · Nov 20, 2014

mayoclinic said:
I certainly hope that is not the case. BTW, the 2015 cap hit for those 3 players is $15.3M ($7.5M Revis, $5.1M McCourty, $2.7M Browner), which is not exactly chump change.

I think you might be looking at their 2014 numbers

Mine were slightly guessed cap hits, since Revis and McCourty will have to have new deals in place, or in mccourtys case, the franchise tag. Revis placeholder cap number is 25, which clearly is not going to happen.

I guessed Revis cap hit on a reworked deal at 11,
McCourty at 5-7,
And browner at his 5.5mil.

I think browner is the most likely cut since his salary isn't guaranteed, but only if the other two are retained. Will be interesting to monitor.

mayoclinic · Nov 20, 2014

I.M. Fletcher said:
I think you might be looking at their 2014 numbers

My bad - I was referring to this year, and mis-typed. Thanks for the correction. Add in Arrington's $3.6M plus 2014 cap hit and the Pats have $20M in cap space invested in 4 DBs.

Clearly they have to do something to work on the cap numbers for 2015. A McCourty extension could have a lowish 2015 cap hit. Hopefully a Revis extension will cut his number down. But - especially if there is a decent bump to the league cap for 2015, as expected - I don't think that $30M for the secondary is out of the question.

luuked · Nov 20, 2014

mayoclinic said:
My bad - I was referring to this year, and mis-typed. Thanks for the correction. Add in Arrington's $3.6M plus 2014 cap hit and the Pats have $20M in cap space invested in 4 DBs.

Clearly they have to do something to work on the cap numbers for 2015. A McCourty extension could have a lowish 2015 cap hit. Hopefully a Revis extension will cut his number down. But - especially if there is a decent bump to the league cap for 2015, as expected - I don't think that $30M for the secondary is out of the question.

But is it really a lot of money ?

Let's see where the cap will be set next year (and the estimate for 2016). If it will rise as much as people are projecting (140m in 2015 and 150m in 2016) then I wonder if we simply need to get used to bigger numbers.

manxman2601 · Nov 20, 2014

mayoclinic said:
, Hunter (rapidly becoming a favorite).

Who?

The only Hunter I can see is the TCU DT.

Edit: Nevermind, just seen your mock.

ATippett56 · Nov 21, 2014

ATippett56 said:
2015 New England Patriots Defense - noteworthy players under contract

Defensive Ends
Ninkovich, Rob
Jones, Chandler
Buchanan, Michael
Moore, Zach

Defensive Tackles
Wilfork, Vince
Siliga, Sealver (ERFA)
Jones, Chris
Easley, Dominique

Linebackers
Mayo, Jerod
Hightower, Dont'a
Collins, Jamie

Safeties
Wilson, Tavon
Ebner, Nate
Harmon, Duron
Jones, Don

Cornerbacks
Revis, Darrelle
Browner, Brandon
Arrington, Kyle
Dennard, Alfonzo
Ryan, Logan
Butler, Malcolm

http://www.patriots.com/team/roster.html

2015 New England Patriots Defense - key unrestricted free agents

McCourty, Devin
Chung, Patrick
Ayers, Akeem
White, Chris (special teams linebacker)
Casillas, Jonathan (special teams linebacker)

Cut Brandon Browner - salary cap savings $5.5 million

http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/new-england-patriots

Re-sign Devin McCourty with salary cap savings from the Brandon Browner release.

Either re-sign Patrick Chung or draft a safety no earlier than the third round of the 2015 NFL Draft.

Exercise option on Darrelle Revis contract.

2015 Patriots Defense Distribution (minimum):

DE - 4
DT - 4
LB - 6
S - 5
CB - 5

Total 24

Defensive Ends
Ninkovich, Rob
Jones, Chandler
Buchanan, Michael
Moore, Zach

Defensive Tackles
Wilfork, Vince
Siliga, Sealver (ERFA)
Jones, Chris
Easley, Dominique

Linebackers
Mayo, Jerod
Hightower, Dont'a
Collins, Jamie
White, Chris (UFA)
Davis or Fleming or Skinner or Gordon or Morris or collegiate UDFA
2015 7th Round Draft Pick (preferably inside linebacker)

Safeties
McCourty, Devin
Chung, Patrick or 2015 3rd Round Draft Pick
Wilson, Tavon
Ebner, Nate
Harmon, Duron

Cornerbacks
Revis, Darrelle
Arrington, Kyle
Dennard, Alfonzo
Ryan, Logan
Butler, Malcolm

Comment: The New England Patriots currently have three linebackers on injured reserve and another three on the practice squad.

http://www.patriots.com/team/roster.html

mayoclinic · Nov 21, 2014

ATippett56 said:
Cut Brandon Browner - salary cap savings $5.5 million

http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/new-england-patriots

Re-sign Devin McCourty with salary cap savings from the Brandon Browner release.

Either re-sign Patrick Chung or draft a safety no earlier than the third round of the 2015 NFL Draft.

Exercise option on Darrelle Revis contract.

2015 Patriots Defense Distribution (minimum):

DE - 4
DT - 4
LB - 6
S - 5
CB - 5

Total 24

Defensive Ends
Ninkovich, Rob
Jones, Chandler
Buchanan, Michael
Moore, Zach

Defensive Tackles
Wilfork, Vince
Siliga, Sealver (ERFA)
Jones, Chris
Easley, Dominique

Linebackers
Mayo, Jerod
Hightower, Dont'a
Collins, Jamie
White, Chris (UFA)
Davis or Fleming or Skinner or Gordon or Morris or collegiate UDFA
2015 7th Round Draft Pick (preferably inside linebacker)

Safeties
McCourty, Devin
Chung, Patrick or 2015 3rd Round Draft Pick
Wilson, Tavon
Ebner, Nate
Harmon, Duron

Cornerbacks
Revis, Darrelle
Arrington, Kyle
Dennard, Alfonzo
Ryan, Logan
Butler, Malcolm

Comment: The New England Patriots currently have three linebackers on injured reserve and another three on the practice squad.

http://www.patriots.com/team/roster.html

I haven't worked through the cap numbers, but if at all possible I want to keep Browner, Ayers, Branch and Casillas, probably in that order.

ATippett56 · Nov 21, 2014

mayoclinic said:
I haven't worked through the cap numbers, but if at all possible I want to keep Browner, Ayers, Branch and Casillas, probably in that order.

Based upon Miguel's salary cap analyses, I tend to keep my analysis as realistic as possible.

http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/

http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/?p=902

http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/?p=894

I would rather keep Revis and McCourty than Browner and McCourty.

As for Jonathan Casillas, if he is not willing to sign for the veteran minimum, see ya. Ditto Alan Branch.

I anticipate that Akeem Ayers will test the UFA market.

My Blueprint for the Defense

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