'Tis the season for playoff scenarios (NFL Playoff Machine)

ATippett56 said:

Somebody has to win the NFC South, don't they?

Balt @ NO W
NO @ Pitt L
Car @ NO W
NO @ Chi W (Bears are god awful)
Atl @ NO W
NO @ Tampa Bay W (Buccaneers are god awful)

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I just have a hard time seeing them win 5 of their last 6, that's all.

They aren't a very good team anymore, standing at 4-6 and having lost back to back home games.

I'm guessing we split the difference, and they still get in--just maybe a game off of your projection at 8-8 instead of 9-7.

supafly said:

I just have a hard time seeing them win 5 of their last 6, that's all.

They aren't a very good team anymore, standing at 4-6 and having lost back to back home games.

I'm guessing we split the difference, and they still get in--just maybe a game off of your projection at 8-8 instead of 9-7.

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I feel the same way about the Baltimore Ravens.

Ravens @ Saints W or L
Chargers @ Ravens W
Ravens @ Dolphins W or L
Jaguars @ Ravens W
Ravens @ Texans L
Browns @ Ravens W

supafly said:

I just have a hard time seeing them win 5 of their last 6, that's all.

They aren't a very good team anymore, standing at 4-6 and having lost back to back home games.

I'm guessing we split the difference, and they still get in--just maybe a game off of your projection at 8-8 instead of 9-7.

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Down the stretch for the New Orleans Saints:

Carolina, Chicago, Atlanta, Tampa Bay

Can it get any easier than that?

ATippett56 said:

Down the stretch for the New Orleans Saints:

Carolina, Chicago, Atlanta, Tampa Bay

Can it get any easier than that?

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I can understand why you see things the way that you do. I just personally don't have as much faith in a 4-6 team as you do.

Either way, I agree with you that they win the division and make the postseason. I just see a 8-8 record instead.

supafly said:

I can understand why you see things the way that you do. I just personally don't have as much faith in a 4-6 team as you do.

Either way, I agree with you that they win the division and make the postseason. I just see a 8-8 record instead.

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I view the Ravens - Saints game as a toss up.

ATippett56 said:

I view the Ravens - Saints game as a toss up.

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Yeah, with the Ravens coming off of a bye and needing to win, they may give them a tough game. In the end, I'm guessing that N.Orleans manages to avoid losing 3 in a row at home, though.

After that, I'm guessing that they'll have another WTF(?) game vs. either CAR or ATL, who is suddenly back in it as well.

1960Pats said:

They're only one game out of the #1 seed. After their bye this week they play NO, KC and Cincy at home and Cincy and Atlanta on the road. Sounds doable to me.

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This team really struggled against the Jets and Titans, I don't think they will be able to sweep that schedule.

crew1954 said:

2nd SB

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My mistake, I wasn't alive for the Pats-Bears super bowl so I always mistakenly consider the '97 bowl the first.

Oswlek said:

Interestingly enough, every single team that people have complained about making it into the playoffs (SD in 2008, Seattle in 2010, StL one year when they were 8-8 and probably another couple I am forgetting) have gone on to win their opening playoff games. So clearly they weren't that far out of their league.

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Arizona made it to the SB and lost to Pittsburgh in 2008, but that doesn't change the fact that they didn't deserve to have that chance. If anything, it shows that another team was deprived of a chance to win it all. It wasn't fair to the fans and that better team that was knocked out.

But hey, at least this isn't the NCAA, where the teams with a shot at the playoffs are determined by a bunch of old guys in a smoke filled room.

meatface said:

This team really struggled against the Jets and Titans, I don't think they will be able to sweep that schedule.

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They don't have to sweep the remaining games. Everyone can lose multiple games, even our Pats. They're at 7-4 right now and resting up for a stretch run. I don't think we should overlook them.

NEWNYJETS said:

No troll, I'm here posting every week buddy. My simulation was meant to be a joke although I guess it is possible buddy. I seem to remember a Ryan named buddy.

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Sorry, buddy. There's another Jets fan in the Jets Suck thread who called me "buddy" and maybe it's (gasp!) rubbing off on me or something. My joke detector must have been off. No biggie, buddy.

Denver who everybody had penciled into at least the AFCCG a month ago now looks pretty vulnerable especially on the road. I'll give them home wins against the Bills and Raiders but Miami, @KC, @SD and @Cincy aren't gimmes. Miami's DL is going to give them fits. SD always plays them tough. Cincy is a night game in late December against another good DL. I'm not saying it will happen but if they lost all the hard games going 2-4 and missed the playoffs it would be epically awesome. Realistically I can see them falling to a wild card slot which would still be nice.

supafly said:

Julius Thomas isn't even in a walking boot, so I think his injury was a bit overstated to be honest with you.

They seem to have gotten lucky....again--at least in that aspect, anyways.

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I think long term, Thomas will be back. He may be missing this weekend though. Same with Sanders. Going up against a good defense might be tough without two of their three best offensive weapons and no running game.

I expect both to play against KC though, but I doubt either will play this week.

Bledsoe_Fan said:

I think it's not so much the fact that those teams COULDN'T win in the playoffs, because alot of teams with mediocre records can and have won playoff games, but I think it's more the fact that does a team with that record really DESERVE to be there, when teams with much better records in other divisions can't be?... Football ethics I guess you could say.

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I don't know what it means to "deserve" to go to the playoffs but I do know that there are definitely a lot of conflicting elements to this.

Does a 10--6 team that had an easier schedule "deserve" to go more than a 9--7 team (or even an 8--8 team) that faced a murderer's row of opponents? I don't think so.

Yes, there is a very strong argument to be made that it would be better if the NFL moved to a genuine "seeding" format for the playoffs. But, it's also true that Divisional rivalries are a key part of competition (and marketing) in the NFL, so the preference to Division winners won't go away anytime soon.

But, I think it goes deeper than that.

By leaving the possibility that a Division winner with an 8--8 or 7--9 record can get into the Playoffs, the League keeps the incentive for teams to battle until the end of the season and get better into December. In some cases, it removes the motivation to tank the season, which means that more teams have to be on their toes against teams with poorer records as the season goes on.

For example, Atlanta and New Orleans at 4--6 both not only have a chance to make the playoffs, but, even more importantly, will be playing games over the next six weeks that can influence the outcome in other Divisions. They will go into those games as motivated as hell, rather than playing for a low draft pick.

everlong said:

Denver who everybody had penciled into at least the AFCCG a month ago now looks pretty vulnerable especially on the road. I'll give them home wins against the Bills and Raiders but Miami, @KC, @SD and @Cincy aren't gimmes. Miami's DL is going to give them fits. SD always plays them tough. Cincy is a night game in late December against another good DL. I'm not saying it will happen but if they lost all the hard games going 2-4 and missed the playoffs it would be epically awesome. Realistically I can see them falling to a wild card slot which would still be nice.

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I think Denver always looked very vulnerable on the road. The problem was they only played two road games the first eight weeks of the season and they lost one and played like crap in the other.

everlong said:

Cincy is a night game in late December against another good DL

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Dalton + Night Game = Guaranteed Denver win. Book it.

I think people are forgetting just how good Denver is at home. The absolutely worst they will be is 11-5, and 12-4 is most likely.

PatsFanSince74 said:

I don't know what it means to "deserve" to go to the playoffs but I do know that there are definitely a lot of conflicting elements to this.

Does a 10--6 team that had an easier schedule "deserve" to go more than a 9--7 team (or even an 8--8 team) that faced a murderer's row of opponents? I don't think so.

Yes, there is a very strong argument to be made that it would be better if the NFL moved to a genuine "seeding" format for the playoffs. But, it's also true that Divisional rivalries are a key part of competition (and marketing) in the NFL, so the preference to Division winners won't go away anytime soon.

But, I think it goes deeper than that.

By leaving the possibility that a Division winner with an 8--8 or 7--9 record can get into the Playoffs, the League keeps the incentive for teams to battle until the end of the season and get better into December. In some cases, it removes the motivation to tank the season, which means that more teams have to be on their toes against teams with poorer records as the season goes on.

For example, Atlanta and New Orleans at 4--6 both not only have a chance to make the playoffs, but, even more importantly, will be playing games over the next six weeks that can influence the outcome in other Divisions. They will go into those games as motivated as hell, rather than playing for a low draft pick.

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Absolutely. Who were the great teams that should have made it in over Arizona in 2008? 9-7 Tampa? 9-7 Dallas? And, sure it was disappointing that 11-5 NE was bumped by 8-8 SD that year, but the Patriots could have taken care of that atrocity on their own, and instead were shellacked 30-7 IIRC.

The 10-6 Giants in 2010 have a compelling case over 7-9 Seattle, but NY lost 2 of their last 3, including a total meltdown against Philly which would have virtually clinched the division.

Very rarely is the team that got bumped really all that great. It isn't like a 103 win SF team not making the playoffs like we used to see in baseball from time to time.

Oswlek said:

Dalton + Night Game = Guaranteed Denver win. Book it.

I think people are forgetting just how good Denver is at home. The absolutely worst they will be is 11-5, and 12-4 is most likely.

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The Dalton factor is a very good point.

Miami is the only home game where I give the opponent a shot.

1960Pats said:

They don't have to sweep the remaining games. Everyone can lose multiple games, even our Pats. They're at 7-4 right now and resting up for a stretch run. I don't think we should overlook them.

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I just don't they are a very good team. You can't sleep on anybody but the Patriots have two games on them right now, Pitt would essentially have to sweep their schedule or hope for the Patriots to go 3-3 or worse while the Broncos and Chiefs also lost. It just seems unlikely

Miami Dolphins could turn out to be not only a WC entry, but have a possibility of being the AFCE Division winner. NOT likely, but possible...