Here Comes Dobsonmania

Dutchmaster617 said:

It is obvious he will be getting cut any day.

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It is? Is my sarcasm meter on the fritz?

signbabybrady said:

For what it's worth Edelman needed several years before he was ready to contribute like he is now. We gave him the benefit of the doubt because he was a QB in college and because he contributed on STs.

Dobson still has time to figure it out. He will have at least into camp next year. Hopefully he can contribute this year. I like most am losing hope but I got to remind my self injuries considered he doesn't even have a years worth of reps (even practice reps).

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Edelman was a 7th round pick. That said, a guy like Brian Quick was a total disappointment his first two seasons and then emerged as the Rams #1 receiver (not saying much, but he was playing very well) this year in his 3rd before he suffered a season ending injury a few weeks ago.

People on this site have short memories. That's all I can come up with for Aaron Dobson. Either that or they were in the bathroom every time he was smoking a db for a 20 yard gain and being right where Tom wanted him to be.

primetime said:

Edelman was a 7th round pick. That said, a guy like Brian Quick was a total disappointment his first two seasons and then emerged as the Rams #1 receiver (not saying much, but he was playing very well) this year in his 3rd before he suffered a season ending injury a few weeks ago.

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Not sure what round has to do with development? That's more a perception of skill. I guess if you think the guy is more NFL ready it would effect his round but the real point is regardless of round doesn't everyone deserve a certain amount of time to develope? Or a season and half in which he was mostly hurt and that's it?

New England Pride said:

People on this site have short memories. That's all I can come up with for Aaron Dobson. Either that or they were in the bathroom every time he was smoking a db for a 20 yard gain and being right where Tom wanted him to be.

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The reality is that Tyms and Dobson have been targeted a total of 9 times this year and have a total of 81 yards. Absent injury, I don't this changing much. That being said, Edelman was indeed injured in the last game. Amendola took a lot of Edelman's reps.

We are guessing that Dobson must be injured. After all, he was targeted 74 times last year for over 500 yards. Apparently, the team think that he still can have some 2014 production. Otherwise, he would have been put on the IR list.

If Edelman is injured, there is room for Tyms, Dobson or even Boyce to get additional reps.

Well, that's another fine Shmess you've gotten yourself into!

New England Pride said:

People on this site have short memories. That's all I can come up with for Aaron Dobson. Either that or they were in the bathroom every time he was smoking a db for a 20 yard gain and being right where Tom wanted him to be.

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Shhhh...Dobson is a bottom feeder on our depth chart. Him being inactive means he is dead last, inferior to Tyms and not the nagging foot injury. Us Patriots fans obviously know what the coaching staff thinks of the situation. Surprisingly a few of those very knowledgable fans are willing to deducts to straight up rumors. Shouldnt we know better? Obviously we should believe he sucks despite nice progression throughout his rookie season, obviously we should believe rumors that he had a spat with McDaniels that cost him half of the sEason. Being hopeful about Dobson (based on his shown ability on the field) warrants criticism and dislikes. In reality none of us knows what is keeping him out of games. But if people are so easy to assume he simply sucks based off of rumors, then it is just as logical to believe he is still recovering from his injury. The guy was prematurely played a few times last season (Buffalo, Denver) and possibly this season. Otherwise he'd have been cut along with Thompkins.

I beliece he will return healthy and add an extra layer to our offense. I doubt the idea that Tyms has somehow surpassed Dobson based off of one catch, several incompletions and a terrible drop.

Tyms is my binky. I think he got a little too excited. Not giving up on him yet. I mean, the drops have been an issue team wide with the newbies. I say, give a little more time. Imo

Kdo5 said:

Shhhh...Dobson is a bottom feeder on our depth chart. Him being inactive means he is dead last, inferior to Tyms and not the nagging foot injury. Us Patriots fans obviously know what the coaching staff thinks of the situation. Obviously we should believe he sucks despite nice progression throughout his rookie season, obviously we should believe rumors that he had a spat with McDaniels that cost him half of the sEason. Being hopeful about Dobson (based on his shown ability on the field) warrants criticism and dislikes. In reality none of us knows what is keeping him out of games. But if people are so easy to assume he simply sucks based off of rumors, then it is just as logical to believe he is still recovering from his injury. The guy was prematurely played a few times last season (Buffalo, Denver) and possibly this season. Otherwise he'd have been cut along with Thompkins.

I beliece he will return healthy and add an extra layer to our offense. I doubt the idea that Tyms has somehow surpassed Dobson based off of one catch, several incompletions and a terrible drop.

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"Shown ability on the field" is what, exactly? Chad Jackson scored a touchdown in one of his first games with the team. Brandon Tate appeared to be a solid second/third option in the offense. Taylor Price made some appearances and caught some balls.

Dobson had so many targets last year by necessity. The offense was so depleted that you likely cannot name three other skill players at any one given point in the season, and even in the playoffs, who exactly was our receiving corps against Denver? Edelman? Hoo-man? Did Boyce Play? Was Vereen healthy? Amendola? So big whoop, he had a lot of targets in his rookie year and still caught less than 50% of the passes thrown his way. Thompkins had a lot of targets and catches as well. Where is he now?

In 2006, Reche Caldwell was our #1 receiver and actually put up pretty decent numbers and had a lot of targets. That doesn't mean he would have been on the roster had there been other decent players around Brady.

So, I'm far, far from sold that Dobson had a good rookie season and was progressing into a mainstay in the offense. I would characterize it more that he got a lot of playing time by necessity and a lot of street free agents could have put up similar production with that many balls thrown to him by the best quarterback in the league with a highly creative offense. If by "ability" you mean his physical talent, I certainly would hope that a second round pick would have some NFL-worthy skills, yet so many first and second round prospects don't make it.

Kdo5 said:

Shhhh...Dobson is a bottom feeder on our depth chart. Him being inactive means he is dead last, inferior to Tyms and not the nagging foot injury. Us Patriots fans obviously know what the coaching staff thinks of the situation. Surprisingly a few of those very knowledgable fans are willing to deducts to straight up rumors. Shouldnt we know better? Obviously we should believe he sucks despite nice progression throughout his rookie season, obviously we should believe rumors that he had a spat with McDaniels that cost him half of the sEason. Being hopeful about Dobson (based on his shown ability on the field) warrants criticism and dislikes. In reality none of us knows what is keeping him out of games. But if people are so easy to assume he simply sucks based off of rumors, then it is just as logical to believe he is still recovering from his injury. The guy was prematurely played a few times last season (Buffalo, Denver) and possibly this season. Otherwise he'd have been cut along with Thompkins.

I beliece he will return healthy and add an extra layer to our offense. I doubt the idea that Tyms has somehow surpassed Dobson based off of one catch, several incompletions and a terrible drop.

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The ironic thing is that the rumor IS the nagging foot injury. We haven't see Dobson since that bad false start and even Bruschi is saying he isn't getting it done in practice. I'd LOVE to be wrong on this but looks like Dobson is a bust. People just don't want to accept it, there's no reason to believe he's still injured. What reason would Pats have to lie about an injury to a guy who isn't even playing?

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

Dobson had so many targets last year by necessity.

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Much of what you say is on target, but I'll contest this point. Most of Dobson's production came after Gronk and Amendola (and even Vereen) returned. Early on he was forced onto the field, but he was clearly their top choice at outside receiver even with a full arsenal.

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

"Shown ability on the field" is what, exactly? Chad Jackson scored a touchdown in one of his first games with the team. Brandon Tate appeared to be a solid second/third option in the offense. Taylor Price made some appearances and caught some balls.

Dobson had so many targets last year by necessity. The offense was so depleted that you likely cannot name three other skill players at any one given point in the season, and even in the playoffs, who exactly was our receiving corps against Denver? Edelman? Hoo-man? Did Boyce Play? Was Vereen healthy? Amendola? So big whoop, he had a lot of targets in his rookie year and still caught less than 50% of the passes thrown his way. Thompkins had a lot of targets and catches as well. Where is he now?

In 2006, Reche Caldwell was our #1 receiver and actually put up pretty decent numbers and had a lot of targets. That doesn't mean he would have been on the roster had there been other decent players around Brady.

So, I'm far, far from sold that Dobson had a good rookie season and was progressing into a mainstay in the offense. I would characterize it more that he got a lot of playing time by necessity and a lot of street free agents could have put up similar production with that many balls thrown to him by the best quarterback in the league with a highly creative offense. If by "ability" you mean his physical talent, I certainly would hope that a second round pick would have some NFL-worthy skills, yet so many first and second round prospects don't make it.

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Being the most productive rookie wr Brady and bb have ever had, is something. Whether is was necessity or not, he was productive and had Brady's trust.

During the bye week the Pats' WR coach implied it was the injury that had been setting him back. Typically, if this were a JAG, the Pats would've stashed him on IR. (ex. Buchanan) The fact they didn't says something to me.

The leaker is being let out of the dog house?

Archeryaddict and TBR m, good posts, I'm with you. I'm not calling him some great WR but the Chad Jackson comparison is flat out absurd and flat out ridiculous.

Just to backup my post with my personal favorite stat, here is the yards per target breakdown for other players with similarities, since they were lined up on the outside. Let's say a minimum of 20 targets and I left off Ochostinko simply because his problems with the playbook were well-documented, although he did meet the threshold.

Brandon Tate, 2009 (rookie), 46 targets, 9.39 ypt
Randy Moss, 2007, 160 targets, 9.33 ypt
Randy Moss, 2009, 138 targets, 9.16 ypt
Brandon LaFell, 2014, 67 targets, 8.60 ypt
Randy Moss, 2008 (Cassell), 125 targets, 8.06 ypt
Deion Branch, 2011 (age 32), 90 targets, 7.80 ypt
Reche Caldwell, 2006, 103 targets, 7.38 ypt- NOT RE-SIGNED
Brandon Lloyd, 2012, 130 targets, 7.01 ypt- NOT RE-SIGNED
Aaron Dobson, 2013 (rookie), 74 targets, 7.01 ypt- ???
Kenbrell Thompkins (rookie), 2013, 70 targets, 6.66 ypt- CUT EARLY NEXT SEASON
Randy Moss, 2010, 22 targets, 6.31 ypt- TRADED MID-SEASON
Deion Branch, 2012, 29 targets, 5.00 ypt- NOT RE-SIGNED
Brandon Tate (injury), 2010, 0 targets, 0.00 ypt- NOT-RESIGNED

Why did I italicize the bottom half of this list? Because none of the players who were under 7.5 ypt played another full season with the Patriots, except for Dobson who is really playing the season on the bench. You can go deeper into the numbers or point out exceptions and say I am cherry picking, but I think this chart gives a pretty good objective sense of the Patriots player evaluations at this position. It is interesting that Tate performed so well in his rookie season- in fact much better than Dobson- but an injury derailed him. The fact they parted with him so readily, though, may be a cautionary tale for those who think Dobson is destined to make a big comeback. The other thing people overlook is that from year 1 to year 2, players should be making huge strides in learning the complexities of the offense.

My guess is that Dobson's benching is not due to injury, or if it is, it still gives me very little confidence that he will be a valuable player in this offense.

signbabybrady said:

For what it's worth Edelman needed several years before he was ready to contribute like he is now. We gave him the benefit of the doubt because he was a QB in college and because he contributed on STs.

Dobson still has time to figure it out. He will have at least into camp next year. Hopefully he can contribute this year. I like most am losing hope but I got to remind my self injuries considered he doesn't even have a years worth of reps (even practice reps).

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Edelperson was a QB conversion project however. I don't think we can say honestly they expected that kind of learning curve needed with Dobson.

That does not mean they won't give him more time. It does, however, mean they might not.

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

It is interesting that Tate performed so well in his rookie season- in fact much better than Dobson- but an injury derailed him. The fact they parted with him so readily, though, may be a cautionary tale for those who think Dobson is destined to make a big comeback.

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I think I would contest all of your conclusions with these statements.

First off, your numbers for Tate are during his sophomore season (2010) not his rookie one. The injury I think you are referring to occurred when he was a rookie and had nothing to do with why NE moved on in 2011. NE moved on from Tate because he was so bad in the do-or-die preseason finale that he gave them no choice. His returns were abominable and he was noticeably worse than a guy who had literally signed less than 48 hours prior.

More to the point, though, when Tate was putting up those numbers, NE had Welker, Moss/Branch to take most of the WR heat, plus two promising rookie TEs who ended up being fairly productive. The role Tate played to complement the other assets had far more to do with his high ypa than any great ability he showed that year. Not that I didn't like him at the time.

Dobson, by contrast started the season with Edelman and......??? Amendola was decent in week one, but Aaron was inactive. Ahern was gone, Gronk was absent, all the other receivers were rookies or nobodies. However, once Gronk and Amendola returned and the corps around Dobson was reasonably comparable to what Tate had, Aaron went on a four week run of 16 catches on 28 attempts for 268 yards. That puts him comfortably in the mid 9's, in fact it would be the highest on this list, albeit in a very small sample. He injured his foot the next week and was effectively done from there, even if he remained active most weeks.

Not saying that these numbers are meaningless, just that those conclusions in particular aren't supported once you look deeper.

Archeryaddict12 said:

Being the most productive rookie wr Brady and bb have ever had, is something. Whether is was necessity or not, he was productive and had Brady's trust.

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By "productive" you are speaking of quantitative stats. By that measure, Chris Jones and Joe Vellano were also extremely productive last season since they were in for a huge bulk of plays. He had only 53 more yards than Kenbrell Thompkins last season along with 7 more targets. Their numbers were nearly identical. Thompkins was cut.

Aaron Dobson is under contract for the next two seasons.

http://www.patscap.com/dobson.html#Dobson

A little too early to give up on a former second round draft pick, especially one who underwent foot surgery this year.