Phins @ Donkeys - Rooting for?

meatface said:

I expect the Broncos will win this game, but this Denver team has really shown that they are not very good on the road and overrated in general. The Dolphins didnt pull away from the Bills until late and I think we can agree that the Broncos are better than the Bills

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I have been saying for a while that Manning without the thin air of Denver has not been all that great. Take away the Raiders game and they have scored 20, 24, 21, and 7 points on offense on the road.

I think the Dolphins can win this one if Sanders and Julius Thomas are out. Thomas is almost certainly out. The Broncos have no running game. Welker is toast. The Dolphins can just double and triple Demariyus Thomas and they can take away Manning's weapons.

Really tough to call, as it stands either KC or DEN wins the AFCW and nobody wants to play in either stadium.

I'd rather Miami win and KC win the AFCW as I believe that we will hold the #1 seed. I think we take care of Miami in our home and win our division with the best record in the AFC.

I don't put anyones odds of coming into and winning in Foxboro not named the Ravens to be too high, and I'd be less worried about KC in our home.

Root for Peyton?

Until the Broncos are mathematically ruled out as the top seed in the AFC, I want them to lose. If the Patriots are going to see them in the playoffs, it must be at Gillette.

Let us not concern ourselves with backing into the AFC East title. That's how the Jets make the the playoffs. If the Dolphins can win all their remaining games except the one in Foxboro, so be it. The Patriots will take care of business when the Dolphins come north in December.

Rob0729 said:

I have been saying for a while that Manning without the thin air of Denver has not been all that great. Take away the Raiders game and they have scored 20, 24, 21, and 7 points on offense on the road.

I think the Dolphins can win this one if Sanders and Julius Thomas are out. Thomas is almost certainly out. The Broncos have no running game. Welker is toast. The Dolphins can just double and triple Demariyus Thomas and they can take away Manning's weapons.

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I suppose the Broncos could spend a lot of time this week trying to get Wes Wlker, Andre Caldwell and Cody Latimer going in their offense but considering how little those guys have done this year it will be tough. I'd say the Denver D will adapt and try and spend the whole game killing Tannehill but Jack Del Rio doesn't know how to do that.

meatface said:

I suppose the Broncos could spend a lot of time this week trying to get Wes Wlker, Andre Caldwell and Cody Latimer going in their offense but considering how little those guys have done this year it will be tough. I'd say the Denver D will adapt and try and spend the whole game killing Tannehill but Jack Del Rio doesn't know how to do that.

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I think Welker is done. He is a mediocre slot receiver at this point. Everything that made him great is no longer evident. He doesn't get YAC anymore. He doesn't make defenders miss him. He seems to just get his 5-8 yard catch and go down.

Latimer hasn't been active all year. It would be surprising if he could just step into the line up and be a big contributor.

Also, the Denver pass rush has not been great in the last three weeks. Demarcus Ware has gotten old. I think Von Miller is the only pass rusher you consistently have to worry about and they have been forced to drop him into coverage a lot lately.

Rob0729 said:

I think Welker is done. He is a mediocre slot receiver at this point. Everything that made him great is no longer evident. He doesn't get YAC anymore. He doesn't make defenders miss him. He seems to just get his 5-8 yard catch and go down.

Latimer hasn't been active all year. It would be surprising if he could just step into the line up and be a big contributor.

Also, the Denver pass rush has not been great in the last three weeks. Demarcus Ware has gotten old. I think Von Miller is the only pass rusher you consistently have to worry about and they have been forced to drop him into coverage a lot lately.

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yeah but that Miami O-line was already letting Tannehill get hit too much and now they have lost Albert. I think this may be a pretty even game.

The Dolphins. I don't see them winning out and one more loss for the Broncos and the Patriots shot at home field is excellent. I have confidence they can hold off the fish.

Let Cards fall where they may, just want all roads to SB to go through Foxboro.

Broncos.
While it's not a very likely scenario, I just want to bury the chance that the Chiefs end up winning the Division with the same record as the Pats while holding the head-to-head tie breaker.
I'm confident that our guys can take care of whatever business they might still have with the Dolphins in December.

Ivan said:

...one more loss for the Broncos and the Patriots shot at home field is excellent. ...

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Not if the Chiefs win the Division with the same record as the Pats. I want the Broncos to win that Division; the Pats hold the tiebreaker if Denver ends up with the same record as the Pats.

PatsFanSince74 said:

Not if the Chiefs win the Division with the same record as the Pats. I want the Broncos to win that Division; the Pats hold the tiebreaker if Denver ends up with the same record as the Pats.

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I think Denver is going to take 2 from the Chefs. I see your point but think Smith's limitations will cost them against the Broncos.

doesntmatter1 said:

I don't like the idea of a divisional rival making the playoffs, but I would love to see an epic collapse from Denver. The kind of collapse where the Broncos lose every game and miss the playoffs. And after Manning is done killing all of his receivers, he receives the MVP award because he got his team to a 8-8 record throwing the ball to himself.

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I rated your post as "Funny" because the line about Manning getting the MVP ("Most Valuable Peyton") Award for throwing the ball to himself is very funny, but I also ""Disagree:" we don't want KC to win that Division and somehow end up with the same record as the Pats.

Ivan said:

I think Denver is going to take 2 from the Chefs. I see your point but think Smith's limitations will cost them against the Broncos.

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I just don't want there to be any chance that they have to play in either of those insane asylums for the AFC Championship. I'm starting to get a very good feeling about this season and I want the road to Phoenix to go through Foxboro in the AFC.

Rob0729 said:

I think Welker is done. He is a mediocre slot receiver at this point. Everything that made him great is no longer evident. He doesn't get YAC anymore. He doesn't make defenders miss him. He seems to just get his 5-8 yard catch and go down.

....

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I think you're probably right re Welker. As someone who really liked him when he was here, I'm concerned that his drop off is due in some way to all the head trauma he's suffered. This is, sadly, a guy who might be having trouble stringing sentences together when he's 50. I hope he has the common sense to quit after this year and get whatever help he can get.

PatsFanSince74 said:

Broncos.
While it's not a very likely scenario, I just want to bury the chance that the Chiefs end up winning the Division with the same record as the Pats while holding the head-to-head tie breaker.
I'm confident that our guys can take care of whatever business they might still have with the Dolphins in December.

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The odds of KC winning the division with the same record as NE are so trivial that I can't fathom the idea of rooting for Denver purely to avoid this scenario.

Oswlek said:

The odds of KC winning the division with the same record as NE are so trivial that I can't fathom the idea of rooting for Denver purely to avoid this scenario.

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The chances of Arizona going 9--1 over 10 games when neither San Francisco nor Seattle had more than 6 wins would have been counted as trivial too on Labor Day. The chances of the Saints dropping two in a row at home weren't as trivial as that, but they sure represented long odds. The odds of the 7--2 Broncos losing to the 2--6 Rams were pretty long as well.

Anything can happen. The Chiefs, Broncos and Pats have six games each left; that's a boatload of different combinations of possible outcomes, when all I know for sure is that Denver and KC are both 7--3 and that the Pats have a game in hand over Denver, but not over KC. Everything else is speculation.

PatsFanSince74 said:

The chances of Arizona going 9--1 over 10 games neither San Francisco nor Seattle had more than 6 wins would have been counted as trivial too on Labor Day. The chances of the Saints dropping two in a row at home weren't as trivial as that, but they sure represented long odds. The odds of the 7--2 Broncos losing to the 2--6 Rams were pretty long as well.

Anything can happen. The Chiefs, Broncos and Pats have six games each left; that's a boatload of different combinations of possible outcomes, when all I know for sure is that Denver and KC are both 7--3 and that the Pats have a game in hand over Denver, but not over KC. Everything else is speculation.

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The difference is that we have data to support our predictions now whereas your examples are idle speculation. KC simply hasn't been playing well enough lately to fear that they will run the table. Certainly not to the point where a Denver loss would be considered anything but good.

Oswlek said:

The difference is that we have data to support our predictions now whereas your examples are idle speculation. KC simply hasn't been playing well enough lately to fear that they will run the table. Certainly not to the point where a Denver loss would be considered anything but good.

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My examples are factual, not "idle speculation": on Labor Day, no one had Arizona running away with the Division in the Middle of November; the Saints seldom lose at home and never (at least over the last three years) lose on two consecutive weeks at home (undefeated at home last year and in 2011 and didn't even manage to lose two weeks in a row at home during the 2012 disaster season). The Broncos were ten point favorites in yesterday's game.

What is speculation is how six games by three different teams against a range of opponents will turn out. I'm not saying that a tie between KC and the Pats is likely by any definition of the term, but its possibility is more than trivial; what we might think is "trivial" doesn't really matter all that much in the NFL.

PatsFanSince74 said:

My examples are factual, not "idle speculation": on Labor Day, no one had Arizona running away with the Division in the Middle of November; the Saints seldom lose at home and never (at least over the last three years) lose on two consecutive weeks at home (undefeated at home last year and in 2011 and didn't even manage to lose two weeks in a row at home during the 2012 disaster season). The Broncos were ten point favorites in yesterday's game.

What is speculation is how six games by three different teams against a range of opponents will turn out. I'm not saying that a tie between KC and the Pats is likely by any definition of the term, but what we might think is "trivial" doesn't really matter all that much in the NFL.

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You missed my point. They are factual now, but the person predicting them would have done so at the beginning of the year... when no meaningful data was available. That is the definition of idle speculation.

Having a 10 game sample to base your judgements on is not. Doesn't mean you'll be right all the time, but it is going to be more accurate than preseason predictions.