The ripple effect of NE@IND on playoff chances

ctpatsfan77 · Nov 17, 2014

This is from playoffstatus.com. I copied down the numbers they had before NE@IND, and then compared them to the numbers after NE@IND.

The first two columns represent the likelihood of each team winning home field advantage; the second two columns represent winning a first-round bye (i.e., 1 or 2 seed), and the third column represents any playoff berth, 1 to 6.

Green boxes in the "after" column represent a gain of more than 1%, while a red box indicates a drop of more than 1%. [Playoffstatus.com rounds to the nearest 1%, so what appears to be a 1% change could really be as little as 0.1% or 0.2%.]

PatsBoy12 · Nov 17, 2014

So the Chiefs didn't gain any ground? That's interesting. That's one of the things that many, myself included, have expressed some worry about since yesterday.

oldrover · Nov 17, 2014

ctpatsfan77 said:
This is from playoffstatus.com. I copied down the numbers they had before NE@IND, and then compared them to the numbers after NE@IND.

The first two columns represent the likelihood of each team winning home field advantage; the second two columns represent winning a first-round bye (i.e., 1 or 2 seed), and the third column represents any playoff berth, 1 to 6.

Green boxes in the "after" column represent a gain of more than 1%, while a red box indicates a drop of more than 1%. [Playoffstatus.com rounds to the nearest 1%, so what appears to be a 1% change could really be as little as 0.1% or 0.2%.]

View attachment 7422

"So... this is GOOD... right?"

slam · Nov 17, 2014

There was a universe in which the 2-8 Jets had a chance (less than 1% chance, but still) at home field advantage?

Thank God last night game prevented that!

BobDigital · Nov 17, 2014

Pats were in the driver's seat before this game. Now they have a commanding lead.... mostly.

KC is concerning as they are only 1 game up while losing the tie breaker. The are the only team that can knock them off the 1 seed in only 1 week.

Bengals tie worries me as it makes our tie breaker over them pointless and really the Pats only have 1 game to burn in regards to them. I didn't think at this point I'd be more concerned about KC/Bengals than Denver/Colts.

KC opponents - Raiders (2) Broncos @Cards @Steelers Chargers. Whatever they do the Pats have to match
Bungles - @Texans @Tampa Steelers @Browns Denver @Steelers. Whatever they do the Pats can only do 1 game worse.

Oddly enough I may end up rooting for Denver to win games. Never thought I would be in that position when the season started.

Nikolai · Nov 17, 2014

slam said:
There was a universe in which the 2-8 Jets had a chance (less than 1% chance, but still) at home field advantage?

Thank God last night game prevented that!

Wrecks was hanging on to that...

It's a tough morning in the Ryan household.

Wax Frog · Nov 17, 2014

What, no "record before"? Slacker!

Ross12 · Nov 17, 2014

slam said:
There was a universe in which the 2-8 Jets had a chance (less than 1% chance, but still) at home field advantage?

Thank God last night game prevented that!

Any day we discover the Jets have been mathematically eliminated from something, it's a good day.

Oswlek · Nov 17, 2014

BobDigital said:
Pats were in the driver's seat before this game. Now they have a commanding lead.... mostly.

KC is concerning as they are only 1 game up while losing the tie breaker. The are the only team that can knock them off the 1 seed in only 1 week.

Bengals tie worries me as it makes our tie breaker over them pointless and really the Pats only have 1 game to burn in regards to them. I didn't think at this point I'd be more concerned about KC/Bengals than Denver/Colts.

KC opponents - Raiders (2) Broncos @Cards @Steelers Chargers. Whatever they do the Pats have to match
Bungles - @Texans @Tampa Steelers @Browns Denver @Steelers. Whatever they do the Pats can only do 1 game worse.

Oddly enough I may end up rooting for Denver to win games. Never thought I would be in that position when the season started.

More concerned about Cincy than Denver? Blaspheme!

Seriously, there is no reason for this to be the case. Cincy has the tie, but they also already have three losses, the same as Denver, meaning Denver is ahead of the Bengals. Conference lead + substantially better team = Cincy is no worry.

It is even worse for Cincy when you consider that, of their six remaining games, four are on the road and the two home are against Pitt and Denver. Not only are Cincy no threat to steal a bye, they are an underdog to even win their division.

KC has the H2H, but they are unlikely to win their division which makes that meaningless. I know they've been winning, but NE fans' fear of them is out of proportion with how well they've been playing lately.

pwes · Nov 17, 2014

Both KC and Cinci will lose at least one more.

kennyb · Nov 17, 2014

KC might only lose one more, at arizona.

They are the team to watch out for, IMO.

Pats can't lose more than one and anything can happen. @GB, @SD, Miami, even @ Jets is not a given. JEts beat the steel-heads.

meatface · Nov 21, 2014

Does anybody know what the odds are now that Kc lost? Patriots can't afford to look past the Lions though they need to make sure they take advantage of this Raiders gift

meatface · Nov 21, 2014

kennyb said:
KC might only lose one more, at arizona.

They are the team to watch out for, IMO.

Pats can't lose more than one and anything can happen. @GB, @SD, Miami, even @ Jets is not a given. JEts beat the steel-heads.

lol, apparently the Chiefs didn't get your memo, Thursday games are weird. Those divisional games are going to be tough, especially the Jets in New Jersey.

ctpatsfan77 · Nov 21, 2014

meatface said:
Does anybody know what the odds are now that Kc lost? Patriots can't afford to look past the Lions though they need to make sure they take advantage of this Raiders gift

The odds of the #1 seed went up from 52% to ~60%, but the other odds stayed about the same.

BelichickFan · Nov 21, 2014

meatface said:
Does anybody know what the odds are now that Kc lost? Patriots can't afford to look past the Lions though they need to make sure they take advantage of this Raiders gift

Rich Hill ‏@PP_Rich_Hill 1h1 hour ago
#Patriots chances for home field advantage just increased to 65% per @FiveThirtyEight. Beat the Lions and it jumps to 75%.

AzPatsFan · Nov 21, 2014

BobDigital said:
Pats were in the driver's seat before this game. Now they have a commanding lead.... mostly.

KC is concerning as they are only 1 game up while losing the tie breaker. The are the only team that can knock them off the 1 seed in only 1 week.

Bengals tie worries me as it makes our tie breaker over them pointless and really the Pats only have 1 game to burn in regards to them. I didn't think at this point I'd be more concerned about KC/Bengals than Denver/Colts.

KC opponents - Raiders (2) Broncos @Cards @Steelers Chargers. Whatever they do the Pats have to match
Bungles - @Texans @Tampa Steelers @Browns Denver @Steelers. Whatever they do the Pats can only do 1 game worse.

Oddly enough I may end up rooting for Denver to win games. Never thought I would be in that position when the season started.

Neither did I.

The ripple effect of NE@IND on playoff chances

ctpatsfan77

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PatsBoy12

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oldrover

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slam

In the Starting Line-Up

BobDigital

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Nikolai

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Ross12

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Oswlek

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pwes

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kennyb

In the Starting Line-Up

meatface

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meatface

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

ctpatsfan77

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BelichickFan

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AzPatsFan

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