Amendola

supafly said:

Like others have said, I don't believe that Belichick has ever been shy from sitting someone if there's better talent waiting to see the field, despite what they're getting paid.

I am assuming that the coaches (mainly singular as in "coach") feels that Amendola is still the best option to do what is asked of him, partly due to the lack of better options behind him, and partly due to the fact that they likely still feel that he can produce.

The key is exactly what @mgteich has stated now several times in that our WR3-4's have never produced much. With Edelman and LaFell (not to mention Gronkowski and even Vereen), a guy like Danny Amendola isn't going to receive many reps, and one would have to assume that the coaching staff knew that way back in the offseason; yet they still kept him for reasons that we do not currently know.

Look at guys who have played the WR3 role recently:

WR3 production

--2013 Dobson 37 catches (which is high due to the loss of both TEs + poor options/injuries)

--2012 Edelman 21 catches

--2011 Chad Johnson 15 catches

--2010 Brandon Tate 24 catches


--2009 Prior to the drafting of the 2 TEs it jumps back up to 37 with Edelman, which is where it was last year as well, but most years it isn't going to be as high as the mid-late 30s.

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Your post highlights the weakness of recent WR3, not the usage plan. Even in the low-throw days of the pre-ManningRules! era, the WR3 was getting 2+ catches per game. Givens had 34 in 2003, for example. 2004 is tough to break down because of the missed games by Branch, but both Givens and Patten ended up in the 40's, so it's a matter of which you decide was the WR3, and then Troy had 39 in 2005

2006 was the year Branch walked out and threw everything into disarray. 2007 has Stallworth with 40+ catches and Gaffney (WR4 for much of the season) with 36. 2008 had Gaffney with 38.

convertedpatsfan said:

And quite frankly, he's a New England Patriot. Whether you love him or hate, it's time to shut the **** up and cheer for him. All this ******** back and forth posting isn't going to change BB's mind. So be a fan, root for your team, root for him to do well and make plays to win games. It's too late to do much else.

Maybe cheering for him will make a difference. Maybe it won't. But it sure has more of a shot of helping than 30+ pages of anger and frustration and constant venting on the poor guy.

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Well said!

Deus Irae said:

Your post highlights the weakness of recent WR3, not the usage plan. Even in the low-throw days of the pre-ManningRules! era, the WR3 was getting 2+ catches per game. Givens had 34 in 2003, for example. 2004 is tough to break down because of the missed games by Branch, but both Givens and Patten ended up in the 40's, so it's a matter of which you decide was the WR3, and then Troy had 39 in 2005

2006 was the year Branch walked out and threw everything into disarray. 2007 has Stallworth with 40+ catches and Gaffney (WR4 for much of the season) with 36. 2008 had Gaffney with 38.

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It's tough to compare now and then, especially with all the rule changes that have freed up the passing game, but your point is valid. However, there were some other reasons beyond just talent. WR1 and 2 weren't getting as many passes as Edelman and Lafell do now, and the emergence of the pass-catching TE has really pushed down that 3rd WR spot.

In 2003, Givens had 34 catches. But no Patriots receiver broke 1,000 yards that year, and Branch led the team with 57 receptions. Graham led the TEs in catches with 38 for 409 yards.

By comparison, in 2013, Edelman caught 105 passes. Yes, there were more passes overall, but when you look at the percentage of total passes, Branch caught 18% of the passes that year while Edelman caught 28%. A hobbled Gronk only played in 6 games yet outproduced 2003 Graham with 39 catches for 592 yards. This year, Edelman is at 24% of total receptions, significantly more than Branch in 2003.

That's not to take away from Givens in 2003 (though he was actually the #4 pass catcher that season, #5 would be Fauria) or Gaffney or any of those other guys. But Tom is locked in on Jules and Gronk right now, and that also is part of it.

One could argue it's because he doesn't trust Danny or he's not open or whatever you want. But the comparison from a decade ago isn't exactly apples to apples.

convertedpatsfan said:

It's tough to compare now and then, especially with all the rule changes that have freed up the passing game, but your point is valid. However, there were some other reasons beyond just talent. WR1 and 2 weren't getting as many passes as Edelman and Lafell do now, and the emergence of the pass-catching TE has really pushed down that 3rd WR spot.

In 2003, Givens had 34 catches. But no Patriots receiver broke 1,000 yards that year, and Branch led the team with 57 receptions. Graham led the TEs in catches with 38 for 409 yards.

By comparison, in 2013, Edelman caught 105 passes. Yes, there were more passes overall, but when you look at the percentage of total passes, Branch caught 18% of the passes that year while Edelman caught 28%. A hobbled Gronk only played in 6 games yet outproduced 2003 Graham with 39 catches for 592 yards. This year, Edelman is at 24% of total receptions, significantly more than Branch in 2003.

That's not to take away from Givens in 2003 (though he was actually the #4 pass catcher that season, #5 would be Fauria) or Gaffney or any of those other guys. But Tom is locked in on Jules and Gronk right now, and that also is part of it.

One could argue it's because he doesn't trust Danny or he's not open or whatever you want. But the comparison from a decade ago isn't exactly apples to apples.

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You're proving my point about the WR3 while injecting the TE issue into the data. The yardage is irrelevant, except as an adjunct to the increased passing attempts, which further emphasizes the issue with poor WR3 play.

bad news boys...it's actually Amendola that got amputated...

convertedpatsfan said:

And quite frankly, he's a New England Patriot. Whether you love him or hate, it's time to shut the **** up and cheer for him. All this ******** back and forth posting isn't going to change BB's mind. So be a fan, root for your team, root for him to do well and make plays to win games. It's too late to do much else.

Maybe cheering for him will make a difference. Maybe it won't. But it sure has more of a shot of helping than 30+ pages of anger and frustration and constant venting on the poor guy.

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I definitely agree with this. I don't mind debating a player or attempting my best to tell it like it is (for example, I am not that optimistic regarding Dobson), but in the end we're all rooting for these guys no matter what.

I think many of us hoped that Amendola would see some more targets--something along the lines of last year's 5 or so a game. That would have put him on pace for another 50-60 catch season. That hasn't happened. The emergence of a healthy Gronkowski, re-signing Edelman to a 4 year pact, and bringing in free agents/trades such as LaFell, Wright etc helped our offense grow, and helped Brady get away from some of the over reliance on the shorter passing game .

I'm good no matter what with what happens with him in the future, but in a perfect world I wouldn't mind him hanging around in a depth role as a vet presence who can contribute on STs. Of course the money has to be better. Much better.

Amendola's lack of catches is more the result of his circumstance than from any lack of skill or chemistry. He's simply redundant with Edelman and Gronk on the field. And i guess also less effective than Lafell as a deeper possession threat. But JE is f'n great, not many would be better, so it's not the worst knock on him. But i'd wager that if Edelman and Amendola pissed in a magic fountain and magically switched roles tomorrow, Amendola would end up with 90%-95% of the production JE himself would put up by season's end. And if he was forced into LaFell's role, he'd put up 90-95% the production there too. And 85% of Gronk too.... No. JK on that one guys, no one is replacing Gronk in any fashion... Where was I, so anyway who cares if he's overpaid. He's here. If either of those other starters goes down we're covered with Amendola. That's worth something. And someone had to end up with the money. He just got lucky with his FA timing. It might make you feel better, from a resource standpoint, to think of it as paying the total across all 3 guys, so you can use 2 and have a capable backup. A backup role force when JE exploded onto the scene and won the job. Not really Amendola's fault there. NE fans should be happy actually, BB finally got some receivers. Back to Amendola's current case, I've been impressed with how he's played the good soldier, even as taking a reduced role, taking pride in helping the team win any way he can - be it downfield blocking, KR's, or as the occasional 3rd WR option, and even accepting the role as the team's internet whipping boy solely for the betterment of fanbase psyche.

Deus Irae said:

You're proving my point about the WR3 while injecting the TE issue into the data. The yardage is irrelevant, except as an adjunct to the increased passing attempts, which further emphasizes the issue with poor WR3 play.

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I'm not quite sure what you mean here. It's early for me, I'm still on coffee #1, and I'm struggling here so please help.

What I THINK I'm trying to say is that while Amendola is WR3 on our team, he's really the #5 option in the passing game due to the emergence of quality pass-catching TEs. While Gronk is one of the few that can block and catch well, many are Hernandez/Graham types who are really oversized WRs.

I'm not sure how that emphasizes poor WR3 play. I mean, is our WR3 as good as Gronkowski? No, of course not. Half the WR1s in this league aren't as good as Gronk either. But there is more to it than just catches. We need to look at offensive formations and snap counts, which I couldn't find for 2003. And it'd be useful to have info on how many times players were one of the top reads or not, though we'll never have that.

But from memory, I remember the Pats playing a lot more 3/4-WR sets back in the day. The heavy usage of 2-TE sets didn't really start until Gronk/Hernandez. BB has wanted to do it for a while, but he could never get the pieces to make it work until then.

I'd also say that teams with elite pass-catching TEs generally don't get much production from that 5th pass catcher.Look back to when the Pats had another great pass-catching TE. The 1994 Patriots featured Ben Coates and his 96 receptions. The 5th pass catcher on that team caught 9 passes. The year after, they caught 15 passes.

The 2010 Falcons went 13-3 featuring Roddy White and future HOF TE Tony Gonzalez. The #5 pass catcher caught 19 passes for 166 yards. The next year, this would fall to 11 catches.

All of which is to say that DA is doing more or less what is expected of him based on his spot in the pecking order. To expect significantly more production without more playing team is unrealistic.

convertedpatsfan said:

I'm not quite sure what you mean here. It's early for me, I'm still on coffee #1, and I'm struggling here so please help.

What I THINK I'm trying to say is that while Amendola is WR3 on our team, he's really the #5 option in the passing game due to the emergence of quality pass-catching TEs. While Gronk is one of the few that can block and catch well, many are Hernandez/Graham types who are really oversized WRs.

I'm not sure how that emphasizes poor WR3 play. I mean, is our WR3 as good as Gronkowski? No, of course not. Half the WR1s in this league aren't as good as Gronk either. But there is more to it than just catches. We need to look at offensive formations and snap counts, which I couldn't find for 2003. And it'd be useful to have info on how many times players were one of the top reads or not, though we'll never have that.

But from memory, I remember the Pats playing a lot more 3/4-WR sets back in the day. The heavy usage of 2-TE sets didn't really start until Gronk/Hernandez. BB has wanted to do it for a while, but he could never get the pieces to make it work until then.

I'd also say that teams with elite pass-catching TEs generally don't get much production from that 5th pass catcher.Look back to when the Pats had another great pass-catching TE. The 1994 Patriots featured Ben Coates and his 96 receptions. The 5th pass catcher on that team caught 9 passes. The year after, they caught 15 passes.

The 2010 Falcons went 13-3 featuring Roddy White and future HOF TE Tony Gonzalez. The #5 pass catcher caught 19 passes for 166 yards. The next year, this would fall to 11 catches.

All of which is to say that DA is doing more or less what is expected of him based on his spot in the pecking order. To expect significantly more production without more playing team is unrealistic.

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What option WR3 is doesn't matter to the discussion. It's been a variable over the years, again depending on how good the player has been.

In 2007 the Patriots had

Moss
Welker
Stallworth
Gaffney
Watson
Faulk

all averaging over 2 catches per game (Watson and Gaffney were the group lows, each at 36), even with Welker at 112 catches and Moss at 98.