Is Belichick in Andrew Luck's Head?

RobertWeathers · Nov 9, 2014

Andrew Luck is an amazing talent and is getting better and better. While he has thrown 9 INTs, he has thrown the ball a ton. My belief is that some of those throws have been forced because he is still learning how to read complex NFL defenses and because of the lack of a go-to running game and a defense that can control the game, he needs to force the action just so keep his team competitive.

In their matchups, the Pats have had superior teams and because of how BB's defenses test the patience of a QB and strive to force an offense to become one-dimensional, young Luck is at an disadvantage.

Rob0729 · Nov 9, 2014

patsfan-1982 said:
Brady put up a 102 points in does two games its really hard to play perfect football when you are playing down by more then three TD's and the other team knows you have to throw the football

The thing is last year's playoff game was 29-22 going into the fourth quarter. So it wasn't like the Colts were playing way behind the whole game.

In 2012, the halftime score was 24-17 Pats. Granted the Pats busted it open in the 3rd quarter and the score was 38-17 going into the 4th.

So there really was at most three quarters in two games where the Colts were down by three TDs. And that is being generous since the Pats didn't go up by three TDs until 3:22 left in the 3rd in 2012 and the Pats didn't get up by three TDs until 11:22 left in the fourth in the playoffs last year. So you are exaggerating things quite a bit.

Rob0729 · Nov 9, 2014

robertweathers said:
Andrew Luck is an amazing talent and is getting better and better. While he has thrown 9 INTs, he has thrown the ball a ton. My belief is that some of those throws have been forced because he is still learning how to read complex NFL defenses and because of the lack of a go-to running game and a defense that can control the game, he needs to force the action just so keep his team competitive.

In their matchups, the Pats have had superior teams and because of how BB's defenses test the patience of a QB and strive to force an offense to become one-dimensional, young Luck is at an disadvantage.

He could easily have double the INTs. Hell, he could have three or four against the Giants last week. Luck is still way too much of a gunslinger. He makes a lot of stupid throws. He is basically Brett Favre 2.0. I said this another thread, I wouldn't be shocked if, like Favre, he finishes his career with the career TD record AND the career INT record.

Favre is one of the greatest of all time while making a lot of bad throws. I expect that will be the storyline of Luck when his career is done.

patfanken · Nov 9, 2014

Rob0729 said:
To answer some of your questions:

As to the smallish fast defense, I think that plays in the Pats' hands. A small, fast defense has no defense vs. Gronk. Gronk is near impossible to cover, but if you are going to have a shot you need to out physical him at the line of scrimmage. A defense that relies on its speed is not the defense to defend Gronk.

Plus, Brady has done well against the current regime's defenses:

2011 in Indy: 29 for 38 (76.3%) for 289 yards, 2 TDs, and 0 INTs (Pats win 31-24)
2012 in NE: 24 for 35 (68.6%) for 331 yards, 3 TDs, and 0 INTs (Pats win 59-24)
2013 in NE (his one clunker because no Gronk): 13 for 25 (52%) for 198 yards and no TDs or INTs.

As to the Colts being the highest scoring team in the league, they are averaging one point more a game than the Pats (32.2 PPG vs. 31.2 PPG) and that includes the fact the Pats struggled on offense the first four week. Over the last five weeks, the Pats have scored far more points than the Colts (40.2 PPG for the Pats vs. 30.8 PPG for the Colts). If this turns into a shootout, I like the Pats' chances.

1.) Jamie Collins did very well shutting down Fleener last year. I would assume Browner would see Allen a lot in the red zone. I still think you take away Hilton and Luck is seriously hindered. One of Luck's weaknesses is that he still focuses in on one of two receivers. I actually hope the Pats force him to throw to the TEs. I know the Giants did it and failed, but they are a horrible defense.
2.) The Pats committed to the run last week even though it didn't work. I expect them to continue even if it doesn't work. I think Gray vs. this smallish defense can have a good game. As much as the Pats run defense gets maligned, the Colts are giving up just as many YPC on the ground as the Pats (4.4).
3.) I think people are making too much of the refs. Odds are even if they are flag happy and call a lot of ticky-tack or non-calls, they will not affect the game.
4.) I think there are mismatches on the Colts' o-line. It is not a great line. The question is whether you pressure Luck or you try to contain him. During the playoff game last year, they did bring the heat.
5.) During the playoffs last year, they did bring the heat (3 sacks, 10 QB hits) and held Luck to one rush for 5 yards.
6.) I still think Dobson will rebound at some point, but he is irrelevant. If he can come back and be an actual contributor, it only improves the Pats chances. If he doesn't, it has no bearing on the game. The Pats did well without Dennard against Manning and the Broncos and they have far more weapons.

Thanks for putting this together, Rob. Just a couple of points. One of the more interesting things to me will be how the plan to cover Gronk. Vontae Davis is having a great year by all accounts. I wonder if the Colts will use him on Gronk much. Most likely they will try to hit him on the line and double him in coverage.

If I were the Colt DC, I'd man up Lafell with Davis and take him out of the game. Like Denver should have done with Lafell last week. Right now I think the best way to slow down the Pats offense is to (a) stop the run,(b)hit and 2 team Gronk, and (3) take out Lafell if you have a great CB. Force Brady to win a game with Edelman and Amendola as his main targets.

This "blueprint" has a lot of holes as we have seen, since it falls apart when you add Wright and Tyns/Dobson. Not to mention most Vareen match ups. While Gronk is truly the main focus of any defense we play, Brady has more than enough reliable options to go to this year. I'ts the beauty of NOT having a true #1 WR to focus on. I believe this year, the Pats could keep Gronk on the LOS run blocking and protecting Brady and STILL throw for 300 yds with the other receiver options he has available.

Luck, unfortunately, has 4 excellent receiving options is Allen, Fleener, Hilton and Wayne, and if he were better at reading the field and had more patience, there is always going to be someone open in this formation. My real fear of Luck comes when he breaks the pocket. It's at that point where Hilton goes from being a threat to a menace. And worse, he can run as well. I'm afraid that if the Pats plan on holding the Colts to under 24 points, they are going to have to create 3 or more TO's Otherwise this game is going to be a Bill Polian wet dream with a final score of something like 45-41.

Ochmed Jones · Nov 9, 2014

Luck is the most dangerous qb on our schedule.

While bb knows manning inside and out and had built a defense to beat manning, luck offers a different skill set, is still ascending in his knowledge of the game and can execute on the run.

Pittsburgh beat luck by physically diminating the Los on both sides of the ball. We need to have the running game going and defense needs to control the Los.

mayoclinic · Nov 9, 2014

Ochmed Jones said:
Luck is the most dangerous qb on our schedule.

Aaron Rodgers?

SalemPats · Nov 9, 2014

Rob0729 said:
He could easily have double the INTs. Hell, he could have three or four against the Giants last week. Luck is still way too much of a gunslinger. He makes a lot of stupid throws. He is basically Brett Favre 2.0. I said this another thread, I wouldn't be shocked if, like Favre, he finishes his career with the career TD record AND the career INT record.

Favre is one of the greatest of all time while making a lot of bad throws. I expect that will be the storyline of Luck when his career is done.

I think you're undervaluing Luck. The guy is ridiculous and is a very intelligent QB. He has the potential to be one of the best ever.

Rob0729 · Nov 9, 2014

SalemPats said:
I think you're undervaluing Luck. The guy is ridiculous and is a very intelligent QB. He has the potential to be one of the best ever.

Not undervaluing him at all. He is a great QB who is a gunslinger who is prone to mistakes. He is Favre 2.0. Favre is one of the greatest QBs of all time who was a gunslinger who was prone to mistakes. That isn't an insult.

Colorado · Nov 10, 2014

Regardless of what happens, Luck just goes out and plays. He doesn't seem to exhibit an insecure, paranoid mind like Belichick, Manning or, I have a chip on my shoulder, Brady. Maybe that's a good thing - perhaps that's what drives them, but Luck doesn't seem the type to obsess over such things.

BTTA · Nov 10, 2014

Third year in the league is when the learning should really show up. It should be a lot harder this year to befuddle him. Plus, he's at home. Those two factors should be significant.

On the other hand, the Pats defensive backfield is far superior to anything Luck saw in those first games.

We'll see.

The Brandon Five · Nov 10, 2014

mayoclinic said:
Aaron Rodgers?

Umm, yeah. 6 TD's in a half?

mayoclinic · Nov 10, 2014

The Brandon Five said:
Umm, yeah. 6 TD's in a half?

I mentioned Rodgers before the Chicago game. Sometimes timing works out well. Obviously, I had no clue what was coming.

pwes · Nov 10, 2014

The Brandon Five said:
Umm, yeah. 6 TD's in a half?

It was Chicago. That team has clearly given up. Look at what we did to them. I really would not put much stake in that game as to Rodgers abilities. It was an anomaly. It would not surprise me to see the Bears blown out every game for the rest of the season. Rodgers is good for about 3 TDs a game.

JMC00 · Nov 10, 2014

Colorado said:
Regardless of what happens, Luck just goes out and plays. He doesn't seem to exhibit an insecure, paranoid mind like Belichick, Manning or, I have a chip on my shoulder, Brady. Maybe that's a good thing - perhaps that's what drives them, but Luck doesn't seem the type to obsess over such things.

Why do you think some people are comparing him to Favre? What you described is a basic gunslinger trait. But it also can be a huge downfall because the fact that he doesn't obsess over those things is why he will continue to have lapses in judgment which leads to bad decisions.

It's the reason why Jay Cutler is Jay Cutler and Matthew Stafford is Matthew Stafford

Oswlek · Nov 10, 2014

I don't mind the Favre comparison as long as we are talking about Favre circa 1995. These days his name has become such a loaded term, conveying less his early greatness and more his egocentric personality and career ending tailspin. For the comparison to work, we need to recall that once upon a time the guy was getting his face measured for NFL's Mount Rushmore.

But even then, even at the height of his powers, Favre's proclivity for the BIG THROW cost his team games. Not nearly as many as it won them, but enough to wonder whether he could have been a 3 or 4 time champ had he been willing to make the easy pass a little more often.

If that is all we are talking about, I might agree. But you really have to narrow it down because Luck shares so few of Favre's negative traits. Even that one is debatable, is that his arrogance or part of their offensive system?

Jangles · Nov 10, 2014

Surely it has nothing to do with him being a young player and still getting comfortable in the NFL...

Rob0729 · Nov 10, 2014

Oswlek said:
I don't mind the Favre comparison as long as we are talking about Favre circa 1995. These days his name has become such a loaded term, conveying less his early greatness and more his egocentric personality and career ending tailspin. For the comparison to work, we need to recall that once upon a time the guy was getting his face measured for NFL's Mount Rushmore.

But even then, even at the height of his powers, Favre's proclivity for the BIG THROW cost his team games. Not nearly as many as it won them, but enough to wonder whether he could have been a 3 or 4 time champ had he been willing to make the easy pass a little more often.

If that is all we are talking about, I might agree. But you really have to narrow it down because Luck shares so few of Favre's negative traits. Even that one is debatable, is that his arrogance or part of their offensive system?

The gun slinger part is only part of the comparisons with Favre. You can add the big arm, ability to use his feet to extend plays and pick up yards (although Luck is a much better runner), and makes big plays.

I know Favre eventually became a selfish diva who put himself ahead of his teams, but he is still one of the best QB of all time. I don't think it is a negative to be compared to him, but Luck has some of the qualities that Favre had that puts him in the top 10 QBs of all time but out of the discussion for the top 3-5.

tmajr3 · Nov 10, 2014

I expect a long day for Reggie Wayne and Hakeem Nicks with Brandon Browner beating the hell out of them on the LOS

Rob0729 · Nov 10, 2014

Even Felger who is a Luck fanboy admits that Luck's mistakes (interceptions and fumbles) and made the Favre comparison. This is a guy who would rather have Luck over Brady. I don't know why people think it is an insult to make the Favre comparison and point out he is right now mistake prone.

Oswlek · Nov 10, 2014

Rob0729 said:
Even Felger who is a Luck fanboy admits that Luck's mistakes (interceptions and fumbles) and made the Favre comparison. This is a guy who would rather have Luck over Brady. I don't know why people think it is an insult to make the Favre comparison and point out he is right now mistake prone.

Who said it was an insult?

Is Belichick in Andrew Luck's Head?

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