Is Belichick in Andrew Luck's Head?

Ok, with all the talk about the potential of Belichick being in Peyton Manning's head, I think the discussion should be whether he is in Andrew Luck's head this week. I know we have had only a small sample size (two games), but Luck has been awful against Patriots defenses thus far.

In last year's playoffs, he was 20 for 41 (49%) for 331 yards, 2 TDs, and 4 INTs. In 2012, he was 27 for 50 (54%) for 334 yards, 2 TDs, and 3 INTs. So in two games, he has thrown 7 INTs. He threw 9 total INTs in the 2013 season and 9 INTs so far in 9 games this season.

Luck has shown that no matter how talent he is, he is still able to be forced into making stupid passes (it cost them the Broncos game). These are the types of QBs that usually Belichick can get rattled. So far, he has with Luck. It should be interesting if this trend continues considering this is the best Patriots defense that Luck will have faced in his short career.

Well, there is a lot of room in that big noggin...

Seriously, though, I agree that BB seems to have Luck figured out somewhat. It's a reason I'm not that worried about Indy, even playing in their house. I have to think that with this secondary and the ability to scheme the way we can with this talent; it could be a rough game for Luck.

The one thing that could cause problems is if Luck gets happy feet and starts moving out of the pocket and making plays with his feet. Mobile QBs give the Pats trouble. It's something to watch for, but overall, I'm with you on this.

Rob0729 said:

Ok, with all the talk about the potential of Belichick being in Peyton Manning's head, I think the discussion should be whether he is in Andrew Luck's head this week. I know we have had only a small sample size (two games), but Luck has been awful against Patriots defenses thus far.

In last year's playoffs, he was 20 for 41 (49%) for 331 yards, 2 TDs, and 4 INTs. In 2012, he was 27 for 50 (54%) for 334 yards, 2 TDs, and 3 INTs. So in two games, he has thrown 7 INTs. He threw 9 total INTs in the 2013 season and 9 INTs so far in 9 games this season.

Luck has shown that no matter how talent he is, he is still able to be forced into making stupid passes (it cost them the Broncos game). These are the types of QBs that usually Belichick can get rattled. So far, he has with Luck. It should be interesting if this trend continues considering this is the best Patriots defense that Luck will have faced in his short career.

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Let's talk after Luck finally gets to play the Patriots at home.
I think the Patriots can win that game but it will be on the strength of Brady and the offense.
If anything I think Luck and the Colt offense will expose the Patriots defense.
Defense played well against the Broncos but I think there is some over-the-top assessments being done with that group. The Pats D is pretty good but they're not great and they're certainly not one of the best D's in football.

Sans Luck, the Colts the past couple years have been a 5-win talent, so it isn't surprising that he'd struggle against a significantly more talented team. The Colts are a lot better this year, but then again so is the Pats defense. I'm looking forward to it.

Interesting hypothesis, Rob. But things change drastically on the road. Whatever they are calling the Indy dome these days, its a loud and difficult place to play. Indy has a smallish, but very fast defense that has a distinct advantage at home. They are also the highest scoring team in the league. Your stats, while compelling, come in games played at Gillette. Lets see if the same pattern holds in Indy. One positive though, Brady, win or lose, has, IIRC, always played pretty well in the Indy Dome and Domes in general

A lot of juicy questions that come with this game. Among them are:

1. How the Pats secondary aligns vs the Indy WR's and TE's
2. How diligently will the pats run the ball
3. What ref crew gets this game
4. Are there mis matches on the Colts OL (I get the feeling Luck gets sacked a lot)
5. Can the Pats effectively rush Luck while maintaining their lanes (the dreaded "controlled rush") Luck, IIRC, is the Colts 3rd best rusher.
6. Will Dennard be back? What about Dobson?

.....and the list can go on. But that's OK because we still have a long time to talk about it.

I said this before, he may make some bad throws , but guy never gives and keeps fighting and make some amazing throws.Unlike the guy who preceded him. Plus mobile QBs and BB's defense done seem to go well. BB always has this conservative game plan vs such QBs. At home they could be totally different than in foxboro.

We believe in turnovers and we're built to force them this year. He's Young and if he's going to put it up for grabs he's likely to get burned. Nothing complicated about that.

RhodyPatriot said:

If anything I think Luck and the Colt offense will expose the Patriots defense.

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So you think Luck is gonna hand it off 30-4o times?

RhodyPatriot said:

Defense played well against the Broncos but I think there is some over-the-top assessments being done with that group.

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What over the top assessment? They held Manning to a 62.3 rating, 0-5 on 3rd and 4th down, only allowed 1 drive of over 50 yards, the only TD came after a debatable PI on 3rd and 10 that Browner defended and the game was basically over at HT.

RhodyPatriot said:

The Pats D is pretty good but they're not great and they're certainly not one of the best D's in football.

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A pretty good defense is all they need with Brady and the offense going.

Hes always good for some bad INTs. I expect at least 1 next weekend

I'll just leave this here....

RhodyPatriot said:

Let's talk after Luck finally gets to play the Patriots at home.
I think the Patriots can win that game but it will be on the strength of Brady and the offense.
If anything I think Luck and the Colt offense will expose the Patriots defense.
Defense played well against the Broncos but I think there is some over-the-top assessments being done with that group. The Pats D is pretty good but they're not great and they're certainly not one of the best D's in football.

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There are only two arguments to believe NE doesn't have a very good defense.

1) All yards are created equal.

2) NE's defensive performance in the first half of the season are equally as predictive as how they've done in the last month.

That's about it.

Of course, "very good" doesn't equal "great" so teams will move the ball on them. NE still has questions regarding their LB depth, their pass rush and their ability to stop the run in key moments. And if NE's offense keeps putting teams down by three scores by halftime, detractors are going to have lots of passing yardage to hang their hats on.

But this has been, without question, a latter top 10 group since the KC debacle.

Rob0729 said:

Ok, with all the talk about the potential of Belichick being in Peyton Manning's head, I think the discussion should be whether he is in Andrew Luck's head this week. I know we have had only a small sample size (two games), but Luck has been awful against Patriots defenses thus far.

In last year's playoffs, he was 20 for 41 (49%) for 331 yards, 2 TDs, and 4 INTs. In 2012, he was 27 for 50 (54%) for 334 yards, 2 TDs, and 3 INTs. So in two games, he has thrown 7 INTs. He threw 9 total INTs in the 2013 season and 9 INTs so far in 9 games this season.

Luck has shown that no matter how talent he is, he is still able to be forced into making stupid passes (it cost them the Broncos game). These are the types of QBs that usually Belichick can get rattled. So far, he has with Luck. It should be interesting if this trend continues considering this is the best Patriots defense that Luck will have faced in his short career.

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I don't think he's `in Luck's head.` With Peyton I think it's a fair statement because Peyton has to think about how hard Belichick owns him, but with Luck, I think it's just a matter of Belichick showing him schemes he hasn't been able to handle. `In his head` would imply Luck gets jitters about the game and I don't think after 2 losses he's at that point yet, especially when there's no real pressure on Luck to win it all with Brady and Peyton still ruling the league.

When we played Luck, I saw a QB getting beaten by Belichick's defensive game plan more than I saw a QB look completely rattled by it.

Judging from afar, the psychological make up of Luck and Manning are completely different. You could tell Manning was cooked in the 1st quarter last week with the first appearance of the Manning face. That's what I would call `in his head.`

Oswlek said:

This has been, without question, a latter top 10 group since the KC debacle.

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I'd personally go further. With the way the refs are calling things, there is no truly dominant defense this year, and there aren't any defenses in the NFL that I would consider clearly better than the Pats'. Detroit and KC are better up front, but the Pats probably have the best secondary in the NFL right now, and the most versatile defense overall.

Our defense reminds me of the 09 saints. We're not going to be good overall group but great at defending the pass and big on getting turnovers

A man named Brady said:

Our defense reminds me of the 09 saints. We're not going to be good overall group but great at defending the pass and big on getting turnovers

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I think our defense is much, much better than the 09 Saints.

The defense has had 3 glitches this season:

1. 2nd half against Miami. First game of the season, plus the heat was a major factor.
2. The Chief's game. Total meltdown. I'm guessing that one is just an outlier.
3. The Jets game. First game without Mayo in the middle, coming on a short week, and at the tail end of a brutal stretch of 4 games in 18 days.

They played well in the first half against Miami and against Minnesota, Oakland, Cincinnati, Buffalo, Chicago and Denver. They seem to be getting better, despite the loss of Mayo and the temporary losses of Jones and Siliga. They have some new pieces that are getting worked into the mix, and it's a young squad playing a very complicated mix of schemes and packages. I'm comfortable with the progress so far, and I think they will be one of the better defenses in the NFL down the stretch, and in the post-season.

patfanken said:

Interesting hypothesis, Rob. But things change drastically on the road. Whatever they are calling the Indy dome these days, its a loud and difficult place to play. Indy has a smallish, but very fast defense that has a distinct advantage at home. They are also the highest scoring team in the league. Your stats, while compelling, come in games played at Gillette. Lets see if the same pattern holds in Indy. One positive though, Brady, win or lose, has, IIRC, always played pretty well in the Indy Dome and Domes in general

A lot of juicy questions that come with this game. Among them are:

1. How the Pats secondary aligns vs the Indy WR's and TE's
2. How diligently will the pats run the ball
3. What ref crew gets this game
4. Are there mis matches on the Colts OL (I get the feeling Luck gets sacked a lot)
5. Can the Pats effectively rush Luck while maintaining their lanes (the dreaded "controlled rush") Luck, IIRC, is the Colts 3rd best rusher.
6. Will Dennard be back? What about Dobson?

.....and the list can go on. But that's OK because we still have a long time to talk about it.

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To answer some of your questions:

As to the smallish fast defense, I think that plays in the Pats' hands. A small, fast defense has no defense vs. Gronk. Gronk is near impossible to cover, but if you are going to have a shot you need to out physical him at the line of scrimmage. A defense that relies on its speed is not the defense to defend Gronk.

Plus, Brady has done well against the current regime's defenses:

2011 in Indy: 29 for 38 (76.3%) for 289 yards, 2 TDs, and 0 INTs (Pats win 31-24)
2012 in NE: 24 for 35 (68.6%) for 331 yards, 3 TDs, and 0 INTs (Pats win 59-24)
2013 in NE (his one clunker because no Gronk): 13 for 25 (52%) for 198 yards and no TDs or INTs.

As to the Colts being the highest scoring team in the league, they are averaging one point more a game than the Pats (32.2 PPG vs. 31.2 PPG) and that includes the fact the Pats struggled on offense the first four week. Over the last five weeks, the Pats have scored far more points than the Colts (40.2 PPG for the Pats vs. 30.8 PPG for the Colts). If this turns into a shootout, I like the Pats' chances.

1.) Jamie Collins did very well shutting down Fleener last year. I would assume Browner would see Allen a lot in the red zone. I still think you take away Hilton and Luck is seriously hindered. One of Luck's weaknesses is that he still focuses in on one of two receivers. I actually hope the Pats force him to throw to the TEs. I know the Giants did it and failed, but they are a horrible defense.
2.) The Pats committed to the run last week even though it didn't work. I expect them to continue even if it doesn't work. I think Gray vs. this smallish defense can have a good game. As much as the Pats run defense gets maligned, the Colts are giving up just as many YPC on the ground as the Pats (4.4).
3.) I think people are making too much of the refs. Odds are even if they are flag happy and call a lot of ticky-tack or non-calls, they will not affect the game.
4.) I think there are mismatches on the Colts' o-line. It is not a great line. The question is whether you pressure Luck or you try to contain him. During the playoff game last year, they did bring the heat.
5.) During the playoffs last year, they did bring the heat (3 sacks, 10 QB hits) and held Luck to one rush for 5 yards.
6.) I still think Dobson will rebound at some point, but he is irrelevant. If he can come back and be an actual contributor, it only improves the Pats chances. If he doesn't, it has no bearing on the game. The Pats did well without Dennard against Manning and the Broncos and they have far more weapons.

I think it has more to do with Luck still growing and maturing than BB being in his head. He's still developing the consistency that is required to be an all-time great. Everyone remembers his great comeback against the Chiefs last year, but somehow we overlook how terribly he played in the first half against the Chiefs to put them in such a huge deficit to begin with.

It's just part of the maturation process. BB throws a lot of things that a young QB may not have seen before, and Luck may be fooled the first time but eventually starts to recognize them so we move onto the next thing, et cetera. But you have to remember this is only his 3rd year in the league. It's incredible to think he can be an MVP candidate and yet have so much more room to grow and improve. That's a bit terrifying for the rest of the league.

Brady put up a 102 points in does two games its really hard to play perfect football when you are playing down by more then three TD's and the other team knows you have to throw the football