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Interesting tidbit to consider.


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patfanken

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Just something to "munch on" during the bye week lull. I was checking out some team stats on offense and defense this afternoon and came to conclusion that as a team, the Pats are pretty average as far as all the prominent stats go. But I think its pretty telling that the ONLY 2 major stats that have the Pats in the top 10, are turn over ratio (1) and scoring (2).

It can't be argued that the Pats are easily among the top 3 teams in the league at this point. Yet if you looked at it from MOST team stats, it would be hard to justify that assessment. I post this only to point ostut how unreliable most stats are.....and which ones are more important than others. I think TO ratio is one that is a real good indicator.

The Pats have been consistently high in that area over the BB era. A good example of that is the 2011 defense that was historically bad, yet the Pats managed to get to the superbowl. One of key reasons that it was among the top 3 teams in the league in creating turnovers. The ability to do that led the 31st-ranked D (only about 10 yards from being 32nd) to rank 15th in scoring D. Over the years the Pats scoring D has always been significantly better than their "total D" ranking.

Right now the Pats rank 17th in scoring D and it is hard to think that with the upcoming 4 games that position is going to change much. Though they are only 2 points per game from being #8. I can't help but wonder if this slippage in scoring D is more the cause of the new rules put in to add more offense, than the talent on the field. There ARE no true shut down CB's in Peyton Manning's NFL.

BOTTOM LINE: Individual stats are meaningless, and most team stats are as well. But there are some that are more meaning full than others and most revolve around the scoreboard. Because, as we so often forget, the ONLY stat that really matters are the 2 numbers they put on the scoreboard.
 
I agree. At this point I just want to vomit anytime someone brings up stats, especially when it's for things like yards. Hearing media bobble heads say Peyton played great against the Patriots with over 400 yards makes me wonder if people watch football games. They probably just check their fantasy league, apparently oblivious to the obvious truth that fantasy football and real football aren't the same game.
 
I never thought I'd see outstanding ST play again like we had in the Troy Brown SB Ring years. Edelsquirrel & the ST squad has proven me wrong.
 
Scoring D is 17th? It's 12th, 2.7 PTS/G from being top 5 and 6 of the teams ahead of them have played 8 games which kind of skews the PTS/G
 
Special teams certainly has been excellent, but considering how many players we carry that offer little other than special teams excellence, any other outcome would be really disappointing.
 
Stats never tell the whole story, but this year the discrepancy is easy to explain. NE was lousy for half the season and terrific for half, ergo their numbers will look somewhat average.
 
This is typical BB Patriots.

Even in 2001, the Patriots finished 19th in offense in yards and 6th in points. They were 24th in yards on defense and 6th in points.

In 2003 and 2004, the Patriots fielded top 10 defenses in both yards and points allowed, but both times ranked higher in points allowed than yards (2003: 7th in yards, 1st in points allowed; 2004: 9th in yards, 2nd in points allowed).

And let's not overlook the offense's contribution here as well. While the Patriots defense is tied for second in most turnovers forced, the offense is tied for the league lead in fewest turnovers. So both sides have been great with the ball.
 
Just something to "munch on" during the bye week lull. I was checking out some team stats on offense and defense this afternoon and came to conclusion that as a team, the Pats are pretty average as far as all the prominent stats go. But I think its pretty telling that the ONLY 2 major stats that have the Pats in the top 10, are turn over ratio (1) and scoring (2).

It can't be argued that the Pats are easily among the top 3 teams in the league at this point. Yet if you looked at it from MOST team stats, it would be hard to justify that assessment. I post this only to point ostut how unreliable most stats are.....and which ones are more important than others. I think TO ratio is one that is a real good indicator.

The Pats have been consistently high in that area over the BB era. A good example of that is the 2011 defense that was historically bad, yet the Pats managed to get to the superbowl. One of key reasons that it was among the top 3 teams in the league in creating turnovers. The ability to do that led the 31st-ranked D (only about 10 yards from being 32nd) to rank 15th in scoring D. Over the years the Pats scoring D has always been significantly better than their "total D" ranking.

Right now the Pats rank 17th in scoring D and it is hard to think that with the upcoming 4 games that position is going to change much. Though they are only 2 points per game from being #8. I can't help but wonder if this slippage in scoring D is more the cause of the new rules put in to add more offense, than the talent on the field. There ARE no true shut down CB's in Peyton Manning's NFL.

BOTTOM LINE: Individual stats are meaningless, and most team stats are as well. But there are some that are more meaning full than others and most revolve around the scoreboard. Because, as we so often forget, the ONLY stat that really matters are the 2 numbers they put on the scoreboard.

I spent some time in the 2000's studying the meaning of statistics related to wins, both with and without betting lines. Just for kicks.

I would compare each teams stats in a few categories going into each game and then add up the total of wins and losses for each category. Some of the things I learned;
1) It might sound too simple, but the biggest influence on who wins or loses is the power rankings. Each season the teams that were rated better won the most games by a large margin. They didn't win quite as much vs the spread, but the difference was relatively small.
2) The stat that most influenced the outcome of games going into each contest was the ability to run the ball and stop the run, until the rules were Manninged in the mid 2000's that is.
3) Next was points allowed vs points scored, followed closely by teams with the best turnover ratio.
4) TOP is not as big of a factor as people think to winning, although teams that have the ball longer do end up winning more than they lose, but not enough to overcome the other stats that I used. I stopped using TOP after a few years because it was so meaningless.
5) If a person could pick 2/3 of the games in the NFL correctly, they would win money vs a bookie as long as they picked every game. There are three things that can happen when a person bets a game. Either the bettor A) wins and covers B) wins and doesn't cover or C) loses outright. There are very few games over a season when B occurs (about 2.5 a week) and in those games the odds are that most people would split on them anyway. The only ranking that truly matters though is the one at the end of the season.

Ironically, I stopped checking the numbers before I retired in 2008.
 
Special teams certainly has been excellent, but considering how many players we carry that offer little other than special teams excellence, any other outcome would be really disappointing.
That is why we carry them.

Unrecognized yet in the acquisition of Casillas, who is that mythical Larry Izzo-like LB who excels on ST, BUT unlike Larry ALSO can contribute on Defense. BB has 5 of them now in WR Edelmen and PR JE; RB Bolton; LB Casillas; evolving SS/LB rugby player Ebner; and finally S/LB Wilson.

Many of the current ST players, are no longer just STO [nly] players.
 
They stunk it up big time in their losses, scraped by a couple of wins and even the dominance of their win against the Broncos looked like a decent game for Manning (barring those interceptions).

They wee behind the curve on opening week and they have been improving considerably after the loss to KC (some stumbles like the jets who put their best plan into effect to try and beat them). Scary thing, is they can still improve on both sides of the ball and while they've played complete games, they having been 100% in sync.

Really, BB has the defensive in a situation where the parts are skilled in enough positions that it can morph into anything he wants. It just might be a glorious run this year and for a couple to follow?
 
As I have commented upon many times on PatsFans, Coach Belichick has always said that the only stat that matters is the final score. He said something along the lines of "as long as we have 1 more point than they do, then that's the important stat."

The other things that are important to understand is that each games stats are only relevant to that particular game. They statistically have no bearing on future games. There are simply too many variables which go into those game stats that they really have almost no relevance at all.

You have 43 players on each side. On any given play, 11 will be on each side of the ball. Those 11 depend upon the situation for that specific play. Determining those 43 for each side also has to take into account the team they are facing, the field conditions, weather, what players (on both teams) are on the injury report and expected to play, maybe play, won't play, etc.

Then you get to the play calling. Each player has to execute his assignment for that aprticular play, all the while dealing with the field, weather, defense called, offensive play called, etc.

In short, there are so many parts to each and every play, and so many situations based upon the results of the previous play, in-game injuries, etc, that making any real sense of stats is a fool's errand. yeah, it's fun, and it generates reams of copy and book sales, column inches, etc. But in the end, like Coach says, the only stat that matters is the final score.
 
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Buffalo should of beaten the Giants in Super Bowl XXV.

They rushed for 166 yards. Was complete domination on the ground.

:)
 
Great post as being #1 in statistics works best in fantasy football...

The most interesting stat for me is that in 2013 after 9 games Brady was sacked 26 times, in 2014 after 9 games Brady has been sacked 14 times.. not sure where to find pressures/hurries.

This without Mankins....

This will be the 14th consecutive winning season, think SF had 16 in the 80's & 90's. 14 winning seasons in a row in the salary cap era is impressive...
 
Any stats even wins and losses without context and in a vacuum on their own are meaningless. I also think stats in the second half of the reason are more relevant than ones from early on. The Bengals and Chargers were world beaters after three 3 week as examples. Playing @Indy, Det, @GB and @SD we're going to know a lot more about this team no matter what the stats are. The SB teams we've had in the past run the table with that slate of games.
 
That's part of complementary football.

Real football and fantasy football are entirely different.

Don't quite think our ST is "complimentary" anymore. It's pretty much a game-changer now.
 
A general problem that I have with most of the basic statistics is that you flatten the development (or decline) of a team over the course of 4 months into one number.

The team that played Miami in September is not the same team that played Denver last week. Without some form of proper weighting, using games from 2 months ago to generate average numbers, won't tell you anything about the current state of the team.

The current iteration feels like a top 10 D, top 5 O and best ST unit in the league. Maybe the season numbers don't say it, but the last batch of games certainly make it feel like it.
 
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