Football Outsiders doesn't buy the Patriots

Interesting- usually Football Outsiders has the Patriots ranked just about where they should be correlated with their point differential and W/L record. In fact, if anything, I've noticed they typically rank the Patriots higher than most sites, as they use advanced metrics. For example, in 2009, they had the Patriots as one of the best offenses ever and Brady as the highest measured QB. In recent years, they've had the Patriots off the charts for efficiency.

Before we have the "us against the world crowd" jump in, let's be clear that there is no one there that is "biased" against the Patriots. These are just numbers, with the same formulas applied to every team. I am just very curious why the 2014 version compares so very low compared to past versions.

In total team efficiency rating, the big number, the Patriots rank #7 overall and #8 weighted (odd that they have gone down over the more recent part of the season.) Baltimore (2nd), Miami (3rd!!!), and a very underwhelming Seattle (4th) team are all ranked ahead of them. Those teams do have good defenses, but I don't think anyone would say that in reality they have better teams, or have played better overall, to date.

They have the Patriots offense ranked #9 in weighted and overall efficiency at 9%, while the Broncos are #1 at 27%. The Broncos have played tougher defenses, but is the gap that much? As of now the teams are almost identical in points per game, tied for second in the NFL.

The Patriots running game is ranked 31st in the league! Again to compare, Denver is ranked 14th, while in reality the Patriots are averaging 3.6 YPC with 1 fumble while Denver is averaging 3.7 YPC with 4 fumbles.

They are ranked 17th in overall team defense at 16th in pass defense and 26th in run defense.

Their best ranking is third in special teams.

Not sure if there is just not a lot of value placed on give/takeaways; perhaps FO sees them as a product of luck (although considering the Pats long-term track record, that can't be true.) Pats lead the league with a +12 differential.

Playoff odds are even more skewed from the norm when compared to sportsbooks and forecasts. The Patriots have roughly a 60% chance to win the AFC East on FO, whereas they are rated closer to 85-90% in most books. They have an overall playoff chance of 78%, whereas you can't likely find a book willing to take a bet on whether not they'll get in. They have a 34% chance of getting a bye (1 or 2 seed). Denver has a 93% chance of making the playoffs and 63% chance of getting a bye, despite that it has been pointed out numerous times that the teams have similar challenges in the second half of the season.

Good! The last thing I want is tons of media hype around the Pats.

They'll be lucky to finish 8-8.

Patriots numbers are dragged down by some sucky early games and a bend but don't break plan against Denver.

Also, Pats schedule from here on out is harder than the Broncos. And there are two other teams in the Pats division with only one more loss and a shot at the playoffs.

So I can see where they get their numbers. Doesn't mean they're right, tho... as we learned in both 2001 and 2007, numbers aren't everything.

Stats are for losers.

There's a reason Football is played on turf and not paper.

FO is good for some things but using overly complicated stats to rank playoff odds etc is just silly.

Big-T said:

Stats are for losers.

There's a reason Football is played on turf and not paper.

FO is good for some things but using overly complicated stats to rank playoff odds etc is just silly.

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http://boston.cbslocal.com/2014/11/...stats-were-not-playing-fantasy-football-here/

I agree with the the other posters. The first 4 games was some of the ugliest Patriots football I have seen.

Not to cherry pick but I think if they just took the last 5 games it may be different.

Regardless, while helpful I don't think we need stats to tell us that the Pats are playing great ball.

oldrover said:

Patriots numbers are dragged down by some sucky early games and a bend but don't break plan against Denver.

Also, Pats schedule from here on out is harder than the Broncos. And there are two other teams in the Pats division with only one more loss and a shot at the playoffs.

So I can see where they get their numbers. Doesn't mean they're right, tho... as we learned in both 2001 and 2007, numbers aren't everything.

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That's right. The DVOA formula "remembers" the objectively poor performances of the first four weeks. Later on in the season it will "forget" the early part of the season and still remember the most recent games. I imagine the Pat's ranking will rise because of that and the tougher 2nd half schedule even if they happen to drop a game or two in the second half of the season.

oldrover said:

and a bend but don't break plan against Denver.

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I don't know

Broncos going 3 for 15 on 3rd and 4th down disagrees with that.

Manning in the 1st half 57.1 completion percentage, 6.07 yards per attempt, 61.4 QB rating. Broncos lone TD in the half came after a debateble PI on Browner on 3rd down.

JMC00 said:

I don't know

Broncos going 3 for 15 on 3rd and 4th down disagrees with that.

Manning in the 1st half 57.1 completion percentage, 6.07 yards per attempt, 61.4 QB rating. Broncos lone TD in the half came after a debateble PI on Browner on 3rd down.

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You make a good point... perhaps I should rephrase that to 'a mountain of 2nd half garbage time yards given up to Denver.'

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

#8 weighted (odd that they have gone down over the more recent part of the season.)

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Their weighted DVOA is higher than their DVOA (14.8% vs 14%), the ranking looks different because one extra team sneaked on top of them. It is important to also take note that "weighted" right now means that week one is at 95% strength and weeks 2-4 are still at 100%. As the season goes on, those early games will gradually decrease in value until they drop off entirely.

Interestingly, season DVOA is actually a better historical predictor of post-season success than weighted, though I think NE might be an anomaly this year.

Looking at some basic stats, they are the best team in net point differential, and that's with a blowout on our record.

I disagree with the ranking of our pass defense.

We've got some good match-ups ahead:
@Indy
Detriot
@Greenbay
@San Diego
3 division rivals

Those games will measure our team.

That's OK, i don't buy statistical arguments accurately depicting football teams or players. That doesn't mean there aren't relevant stats at times but every statistical argument leaves out so much as to make them invalid imo Denver having the best run defense in the league is a good example, who the hell runs on them when they are down 20 at the half every week? Same goes for the passing yards allowed by top teams on a regular basis, they are usually ahead and opposing teams are throwing as much as possible to get back in thus so many garbage time yards.. If someone ever comes up with truly contextual statistics then they may be worth something, but to date that hasn't happened and those relying upon stats to paint an accurate picture generally missing out.

Ivan said:

That's OK, i don't buy statistical arguments accurately depicting football teams or players. That doesn't mean there aren't relevant stats at times but every statistical argument leaves out so much as to make them invalid imo Denver having the best run defense in the league is a good example, who the hell runs on them when they are down 20 at the half every week? Same goes for the passing yards allowed by top teams on a regular basis, they are usually ahead and opposing teams are throwing as much as possible to get back in thus so many garbage time yards.. If someone ever comes up with truly contextual statistics then they may be worth something, but to date that hasn't happened and those relying upon stats to paint an accurate picture generally missing out.

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DVOA actually takes all of that into account. Doesn't mean they are always "right", but any bit of context y0u want is already in there.

The OP had good intentions, but his initial comments are decidedly misleading.

here's the pass...and...oh wow!!! what a monster hit on the receiver who holds on for the catch...and here come the trainers...and the #1 receiver is leaving the game unable to play...what a game changing hit!

Meanwhile..."errr...harumph harumph...I, Stats Knower Of Things, conclude that the DVOA DIVIDED BY THE VORP ADDED TO THE ZYXT MULTIPLIED BY THE G OF W2 SQUARED = Pats secondary is horrible for that pass they gave up!!".

Stats are nice for AFTER a goddamned game. Once again you CANNOT stat heart, determination, hitting and will. OK?? I know you stats monkeys love your charts and love arguing all offseason over minutiae that predict things YOU think will actually occur but the truth is, stats are a PRODUCT of a game, just PART of the total product.

60% to win AFC east? HAHAHA