I'm surprised how effective playaction is when our run game is ineffective and incapable or breaking off anything big.
I've been quoting Barnwell a lot lately but he wrote a good bit on it a while ago.
http://grantland.com/features/nfl-c...ss-strategy-run-game-screen-pass-play-action/
Seattle is an example of what a bruising running game can sometimes lend to play-action. The Seahawks enjoyed the league’s fourth-highest change in EPA/play last season when comparing play-action plays to other passes. Just as a slashing John Wall creates more opportunities for his teammates to bomb corner 3s, a running back like Lynch can make a run fake more effective. There are several cases in the past five years where play-action success is connected to run-heavy offenses like the Seahawks’. Houston, San Francisco, and Washington all rank in the top five for the largest difference in EPA/play between play-action passes and other throws. But there are plenty of examples that show a great run game doesn’t guarantee better returns.
One of the teams that’s run the most play-action passes since 2009 is, unsurprisingly, Minnesota, which faces a defense every week that’s geared up for Peterson. When it comes to their success on those plays, though, the Vikings rank 21st in EPA/play. This is a blow to the notion that establishing the run is the vital factor in play-action. A defense being preoccupied with Peterson doesn’t guarantee a chunk of yards through the air when he’s used as a decoy. In fact, of the four teams that finished with a positive EPA/play in the run game, only one (New England) finished in the top 10 on play-action plays.
What is a slight surprise, however, is that none of the teams near the top would be considered running teams. The Packers, who are 18th in rushing attempts since ’09 and had been shuffling backs for years before Eddie Lacy showed up, rank third (.33 EPA). The Broncos are right behind them, at .31 EPA, and most of that damage was done since Manning arrived.
That’s because play-action passes are still passes, and the teams with the best quarterbacks still typically get the most out of them. In 2013, Denver led the way with .57 EPA, and San Diego, second in passing DVOA, was no. 2 (at .55 EPA). Supporting the claim that establishing the run doesn’t necessarily mean play-action success are last year’s Bills (minus-.18 EPA). Buffalo led the league in rushing attempts but ranked last in EPA/play on play-action. For a team like the Bills, those numbers tend to have a significant relationship. Head coach Doug Marrone’s tendency to lean on his ground game was a way to protect his group of young quarterbacks, a group that isn’t set up to make the quick reads necessary on play-action throws.
So it isn't necessarily about the running game so much as the QB who ends up throwing after the fake. Both Green Bay and Denver have also had success without dominating ground games. It's natural to respond to the fake or at least respect that it might happen.
