BB's Trade Gambles and the 2015 Draft

captain stone said:

**** $eeMore brings us a 1st-rounder, yet Mankins brings us a feckin 4th + some unranked UDFA
WR-to-TE convert?

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(A) Seymour brought a first-rounder two years after, not the year after. So effectively it was a second-rounder.

(B) That trade was with the f***ing Raiders, a team that was paying $16M/4 years for a punter.

captain stone said:

Completely agree with the above, though I would flip NT with DE. A Mankins replacement must be
Job #1 next off-season.

**** $eeMore brings us a 1st-rounder, yet Mankins brings us a feckin 4th + some unranked UDFA
WR-to-TE convert? I would've told Licht & Robinson in TB to suck it until they upped the offer to
at least a 2nd, or ASJ + a 3rd.

I hope Brady's health insurance is up-to-date, because we now have The Worst Interior OL in football (while our Tackles are just injury-prone).
Thanks a lot, Genius.

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Just have to opine and say you grow more and more like Boregas everyday. I know you are an earnest Patriots Fan, but I fail to see how, or even why.

You think Kraft is cheap and a terrible owner, yet he built one of the few or maybe the only modern stadium, with private money? You think Belichick is ignorant, dumb, stupid, doesn't know how to coach worth a damn, and is the worst talent evaluator in the League.

Objectively, how have they had 14 consecutive seasons of winning? How has Belichick staffed two generations of Playoff teams? How has he rebuilt a Superbowl dynasty club with 51of 53 new players, yet never won less than 10 games in a season? How has he made a Superbowl appearance, in 2011, amidst the incomplete rebuilding?

With those opinions, Why are You a Pats Fan ??????

Doubtful anything is good there at 32. Ya know we'll trade down. Will have 6 picks not too far from Top 100. Two 2nd's, Three 3RD's and an early 4th. Getting a two and a three for moving down.

I was a bit surprised we paid Mankins as much as we did. We never really put any value on the guard position at all. In terms of dollars or draft choices. If anything, I think we'll go back to that in terms of OL building. Mid-round pick and a vet. Maybe get lucky with a guy like Brian Waters. I actually think we'll draft a RT before a G. Vollmer has had a littany of health problems. Not sure we have a bookend for Solder on our roster. Maybe something like; RT, DE/OLB, TE, RB and DT.

I'm all for trading out of the first round. And picking up a 2nd and 3rd. I like the guard talent in the 2nd round and see another slipping into the 3rd.

I'd like to see guard,DT and safety with those 3 picks.

Patriot Missile said:

I'm all for trading out of the first round. And picking up a 2nd and 3rd. I like the guard talent in the 2nd round and see another slipping into the 3rd.

I'd like to see guard,DT and safety with those 3 picks.

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I am in with this strategy. And I think you nailed the positions to draft as well.

Good to see ya back and posting Ochmed. Both lines need an infusion of young talent. We may need a pass-rushing DE to help Chandler as much as anything too.

After 7 games I would say that the offense is fine apart from the O-Line. Obviously if a blue chip slips you gotta consider but I think drafting a guard or tackle and done for the offense, keeping the focus on defense. I don't think BB would spend a high draft pick in a RB so I think they will address RB after the 4th round or FA.

We desperately need to draft LB and keep trying to find an adequate safety. DE and DT still need improvement and depth.

patsfaninpa said:

Good to see ya back and posting Ochmed. Both lines need an infusion of young talent. We may need a pass-rushing DE to help Chandler as much as anything too.

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Thanks, it's hard owning a business in today's economy. The time demands are outrageous.

I admit to having lost faith in our 3rd and 4th round selections. This is why I'm for now keeping our 1sts and 2nds and not trading down.

Duron Harmon, Josh Boyce, Jake Bequette, Tavon Wilson, etc. I just am not confident with the strategy anymore.

In fact, when you look at the end of the draft, it's much more impressive lately. Dennard, Ebner, Buchanan, maybe Zach Moore.

patsfaninpa said:

Doubtful anything is good there at 32. Ya know we'll trade down.

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There won't be anything good at 32, so we'll trade back? That makes no sense.

There will undoubtedly be many good players at 32, if that is where we happen to pick, or at any point in the bottom part of the 1st round. Whether BB trades back depends on how much he likes the options available and how much value there is to trading down. In 2013 he found the value of a 4 to 1 trade with Minny too good to pass up. In 2014 he considered Dominique Easley too good a prospect to risk trading back.

mayoclinic said:

There won't be anything good at 32, so we'll trade back? That makes no sense.

There will undoubtedly be many good players at 32, if that is where we happen to pick, or at any point in the bottom part of the 1st round. Whether BB trades back depends on how much he likes the options available and how much value there is to trading down. In 2013 he found the value of a 4 to 1 trade with Minny too good to pass up. In 2014 he considered Dominique Easley too good a prospect to risk trading back.

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That always interests me. We heard tons of stories of offers made to bb for our first rounder last year. But he did not move the pick. I understand Seattle was gong to take Easley and bb knew it. But it just seems odd that bb was so stuck on Easley.

Ochmed Jones said:

That always interests me. We heard tons of stories of offers made to bb for our first rounder last year. But he did not move the pick. I understand Seattle was gong to take Easley and bb knew it. But it just seems odd that bb was so stuck on Easley.

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Why? He obviously liked Easley quite a bit. He made it quite clear that the Pats had Easley graded extremely highly.

Ochmed Jones said:

That always interests me. We heard tons of stories of offers made to bb for our first rounder last year. But he did not move the pick. I understand Seattle was gong to take Easley and bb knew it. But it just seems odd that bb was so stuck on Easley.

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What's so wierd about using a draft pick to take a player? Interior pass rush had been a problem for us for some time, and Easley was a very good prospect for interior pass rusher.

What's weird is bb valued Easley more than the extra picks he would have relieved for trading the picks.

Just seems very unbb like.

Ochmed Jones said:

What's weird is bb valued Easley more than the extra picks he would have relieved for trading the picks.

Just seems very unbb like.

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So was trading up in the 1st round twice in 2012. It all depends how much BB likes the available players.

Ochmed Jones said:

That always interests me. We heard tons of stories of offers made to bb for our first rounder last year. But he did not move the pick. I understand Seattle was gong to take Easley and bb knew it. But it just seems odd that bb was so stuck on Easley.

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I'm echoing others but why would this be surprising?

Easley fits the profile of a Patriots pick in the late 20s to early 40s where the player is "prototype" with a flag. Gronk was prototype with an injury flag, Mankins was prototype with a conversion to guard flag, Dowling was prototype press-man corner with injury flag(s), Chung was a near prototype with deep coverage flags. Easley is a prototype 3-technique with serious injury recovery flags.

The Pats have a clear pattern of going boom or bust in an attempt to compensate for their relatively low draft positioning by grabbing players who have very high upside but fairly low floors at this point in the draft.

fester said:

I'm echoing others but why would this be surprising?

Easley fits the profile of a Patriots pick in the late 20s to early 40s where the player is "prototype" with a flag. Gronk was prototype with an injury flag, Mankins was prototype with a conversion to guard flag, Dowling was prototype press-man corner with injury flag(s), Chung was a near prototype with deep coverage flags. Easley is a prototype 3-technique with serious injury recovery flags.

The Pats have a clear pattern of going boom or bust in an attempt to compensate for their relatively low draft positioning by grabbing players who have very high upside but fairly low floors at this point in the draft.

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But Bill doesn't do that with his First Rounders. He has said missing on a First Rounder harms an organization too much.

But he DOES gamble with his 2s and 3s. All but Easley were 2s. BB has NEVER missed with a 1. Not all his 1s became Pro Bowlers, but everyone played. These gambles are the only way to make up for constantly picking in the late 20s versus teams that get Top Ten picks

BTW, the success rate for the League over a decade of analysis for all teams, is only 75% for First Picks. Bill's success for his Firsts are 100%.

AzPatsFan said:

But Bill doesn't do that with his First Rounders. He has said missing on a First Rounder harms an organization too much.

But he DOES gamble with his 2s and 3s. All but Easley were 2s. BB has NEVER missed with a 1. Not all his 1s became Pro Bowlers, but everyone played. These gambles are the only way to make up for constantly picking in the late 20s versus teams that get Top Ten picks

BTW, the success rate for the League over a decade of analysis for all teams, is only 75% for First Picks. Bill's success for his Firsts are 100%.

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Agreed.

I will say his 2 biggest blunders in the first are probably Maroney and Meriweather

AzPatsFan said:

But Bill doesn't do that with his First Rounders. He has said missing on a First Rounder harms an organization too much.

But he DOES gamble with his 2s and 3s. All but Easley were 2s. BB has NEVER missed with a 1. Not all his 1s became Pro Bowlers, but everyone played. These gambles are the only way to make up for constantly picking in the late 20s versus teams that get Top Ten picks

BTW, the success rate for the League over a decade of analysis for all teams, is only 75% for First Picks. Bill's success for his Firsts are 100%.

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I needed to add Ben Watson to the list of Prototypes with a flag (end of 1st)... honestly, I think the 1st/2nd dividing line is artificial. A more reasonable dividing line is probably Top-8 or so, 9-mid twenties, mid twenties to late thirties or mid-40s, mid-40s to mid 70s.

Mid-20s to late 30s/early 40s is the gamble on greatness zone as there are no high ceiling/high floor with no flags left. It is either low ceiling no flags and a high floor, or high ceiling, low floor with flags

AzPatsFan said:

But Bill doesn't do that with his First Rounders. He has said missing on a First Rounder harms an organization too much.

But he DOES gamble with his 2s and 3s. All but Easley were 2s. BB has NEVER missed with a 1. Not all his 1s became Pro Bowlers, but everyone played. These gambles are the only way to make up for constantly picking in the late 20s versus teams that get Top Ten picks

BTW, the success rate for the League over a decade of analysis for all teams, is only 75% for First Picks. Bill's success for his Firsts are 100%.

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Watson and Mankins are the counter-examples of late 1st rounders with a significant flag but are otherwise prototypes.