Game Thoughts: The Pats beat the Broncos like a rented mule edition

FCB02062 said:

It's awesome that the Pats have home field and the #1 seed NOW, but it'll be tough to hold onto it. It's looking like the Miami/Buffalo games at the end of the year won't be the cakewalks we all thought they'd be as both teams could be fighting for a playoff spot. Add to that the often mentioned games at GB, SD, Ind, and home to Det, and as awesome as the Pats looked last night I can't see them wining out and maintaining the HFA. But I do see Den winning out simply because it's Manning and he'll get all the flags and the teams they're playing won't be able to overcome the flag day parade. Plus they have the easier schedule.
My big hope is that, providing the Pats finish as the #2 and get that bye is that the lower seed from wild card weekend can go to denver and knock them off. right now that could be any one of Pit, Bal, Ind, or Cin before the season closes. I'd like Pit or Bal to go into Den and win, but not so much Ind. Like it or not, and I'm just being realistic, I think home field is a long shot. Hey, last time Pats won it they had to go to 15-1 Pittsburgh and blew them out...

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I see Denver losing in KC. I think there is a good chance they lose in San Diego and Cincy. They are not as good on the road as they are at home.

KontradictioN said:

Rob, were you surprised at how well Browner handled DT early on? Of course he had McCourty shaded to his side often, but I thought he did very well. Also did a very good job on JT as well.

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He did a good job against Thomas. Better than I expected, but no one was right about who would be matched up with who because they really had Browner and Revis cover almost everyone (or does that make everyone right?).

Uncle Rico said:

Funny that I never heard the word "blueprint" last night. Remember that rom '07? Be interesting to see what other teams get from this film. Certainly hard not t notice that at different times D Thomas, Welker and E Sanders all looked more than a little beat up. Raiders might be tough next week in Oakland; they've played well (as we know) and gave Seattle a tough go in Seattle last night.

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I think that Denver beats Oakland in Oakland, but any of their other road games could be a loss. As long as San Diego fixes their problems before they meet Denver, they are a tough game on the road (just not a week earlier when the Pats play them). KC in KC is always tough and it should be cold. Cincy at the end of December will be cold. St. Louis is playing everyone tough. Hell, home games vs. the Dolphins and Bills aren't as much of a cake walk as they looked a few weeks ago.

If I was a betting man, the Pats and Denver will both be either 13-3 or 12-4. The Broncos don't have the easy schedule people are making it out to be with a lot of road games.

BTW, playing Seattle tough this year is not a huge accomplishment. They seem to have a Super Bowl hangover and may not even make the playoffs at this rate.

I wish all quarterbacks we play against got so much ball-washing that Manning gets. It would make beating every team much more enjoyable.

The Patriots have two late-round pick quarterbacks setting NFL and franchise records in the same games, yet all the media talks about is Manning.

Manning is compared to Brady for weeks and then Sanchez, another former AFC East QB who hadn't played a game since 2012, just walks on the field and sets an such an impressive standard with 2 TD, 2 INT, and 89 QB rating that Manning could only hope to come close hours later after 10 days of preparation.

Rob0729 said:

Ok, here we go:]

• Hightower is handling the play calling abilities worlds better this year. He was doing a great job calling defensive audibles at the line. I think he was catching Manning off guard a lot calling audibles at the last minute that Manning didn't adjust for especially late in the second quarter. His coverage skills are vastly improved too.

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Completely agree with this statement. Furthermore, depending on how Mayo heals this may be 2015 role for Hightower.

I agree with the sentiment that Denver, Peyton, and this offense is a bit smoke & mirrors, but there's no guarantee that smoke & mirrors can't win a championship. Health of the contenders is the key. We'll still need a healthy Gronk to beat them.

I haven't read the whole thread, but has anybody talked about Ward going right for Gronk's knee again?

The Broncos are indeed overrated especially after their supposedly improved all star defense fell flat. They only look good at home which is actually an illusion.

mayoclinic said:

I laughed when I read this article by Aaron Schatz on ESPN Insider yesterday:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/stor...-denver-broncos-performing-historic-level-nfl
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/stor...-denver-broncos-performing-historic-level-nfl

What is historic is the amount of hype the Broncos have gotten. They are a top team, but the media has crowned them way too soon.

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Yeah, Denver is good, but not nearly as good as DVOA was making them out to be. More run-of-the-mill best team in the league. The funny thing is, according to DVOA Denver was 20% away from the top 2 (which is a crapload when you consider that Denver's total DVOA as of week 8 was ~48%), so even by their own numbers the "best all time" talk was premature.

NE is an odd duck, with their bizarre strings of ineptness and dominance, so I don't have a hard time with their current rating. But I have to admit to being completely puzzled at how they treated the Chicago game. Yes, Chicago put together some drives and yes, DVOA is a per play metric and yes, they still count garbage time stuff... but even despite that, it was still an arse kicking of the highest order, certainly on par with anything Denver had done to date. But somehow they had it as a 17% game, which is good but far from great. Didn't jibe with what my eyes saw at all.

For context, DVOA considered Miami's 24-14 win over those same Bears to be about twice as impressive.

It also appears that Aaron has caught the dreaded, "look at me! I'm a Pats fan who can be objective!" affliction that causes people to undervalue the Patriots. He had a woefully stupid comment about Cutler turf burning a pass, seemingly oblivious to the fact that it was a screen so the only possible target is the RB, in an attempt to say, "bad QBing, not good defense."

Rob0729 said:

I see Denver losing in KC. I think there is a good chance they lose in San Diego and Cincy. They are not as good on the road as they are at home.

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Yes, but when the opponent has to play against Saint Manning and the Refs, it's a tall task...

Rob0729 said:

One I forgot two:

I know McDaniels gets a lot of crap on this board, but he totally confused Jack Del Rio on how to stop this offense. At times, it was way too easy for the Pats on offense.

Pat Chung is a surprise this year. I said before the season that I thought he would be effective in a limited role on this team. I was wrong. He is effective as a starter. What a redemption for a guy who was benched and let walk two years ago.

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I knew Chung would make the team. He was on every projection I worked on during TC. But I did not see this coming. His play this season has been among the surprise storylines of the first half, although it's been largely an underrated story to this point. His play yesterday was on another level, one that I don't think we've seen, even this season. Tamme abused him just a few years ago with the Colts. He exorcised those demons.

mosi said:

I still think Denver has the best chance of getting the #1 seed. I think Denver is a very good team. The Pats are just better. But, I could see Denver winning out while the Pats might lose 1 more game. If Gronk is healthy, I see the Pats being able to go into Denver and winning.

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This is fair.

CaffeineMan said:

Now, if you wanna bag on somebody over at FO, make it Kascmar and I'll join you. That guy cherry picks data to try to prove his preconceived notions. But I haven't observed that to be the case with Schatz.

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Oh god, yes. Kascmar is a disgrace on that website.

breakin said:

Every year for as long as I can remember Mannings teams are built up as some kind of unbeatable team. Each year barring 1 they collapse when its time to put up or shut up and then again the next year its all forgotten.

Pats fans witness it every year and every year we counter the manning ball-washing with the "He doesnt win the big game" line. We are attacked for being haters and jealous. Then when he loses the big game everyone comes to our side of the arguement only to suffer amnesia when the next season kicks off.

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They pretty much collapsed that one time too, it's just that they did it against probably the worst team to be in the SB in the past 20 years.

rlcarr said:

Oh god, yes. Kascmar is a disgrace on that website.

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Guy used to post as still_life on KFFL. He's a Pittsburgh AND Indy fan, and has an irrational hatred of BB/the Pats. Always has.

Broncos didn't improve enough to avenge their loss to the Seahawks, but the Pats improved enough to beat them both