Cap Room: Den vs NE

Mods may want to move this, but there were some posts in the "I can't stand it" thread regarding denver's 2015 cap and our 2015 cap. I decided to do a little research and ended up doing way more than I meant to. Some of you might find this interesting/useful. Note these numbers are approximate and rounded.

Denver has about 108.5 million in contracts for next year among 38 players. I have them resigning 8 players for 41.5 million, and the minimum for 5 guys to get them to 51 (2.5 million). They will also have about 1 million in cap space. This brings them to a total of 153.5 million. They are about 10 million below their cap which would bring them down to 143.5 million.

The eight guys are: D Thomas (13m), J Thomas (8m), C Harris (7m), Knighton (5.5m), Moore (2.5m), Franklin (2.5m), Irving (1.5m), Marshall(1.5m).

The pats have about 131.6m in contracts for 2015 among 42 players. I have them resigning 6 guys for a total of 20m, and 3 guys to get them to 51 at the league min (about 1.5m). They have 4.7m in dead money on the books for 2015. This brings us to a toal of 157.8m. Miguel has us about 9m below the cap, so rolling that over would bring us down to 148.8m. From there, I think a restructure of Revis is going to happen (down at least 10m) and probably either a cut or restructure of amendola to save 2m. This would bring the pats down to 136.8m.

The six patriots are DMC (8m), Ghost (4m), Wendell (2.5m), Cannon (2m), Vereen/Ridley (only 1) 2m, Cannon (2m), and Chung (1.5m).

So while this is all obviously rough estimates, it does point towards the pats being in a better cap situation this offseason than Denver (by about 6-7 million).

I know that there are also NLTBA incentives to factor in, but that is probably hard to predict for both sides so I called it a wash.

If anyone has more exact or better info please let me know and I can edit this post. If I missed anyone NE or Den is likely to resign for 1.5m or more please let me know. I just went through Denver's starters to see who was a FA.

frongi said:

I have them resigning 8 players for 41.5 million

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I think this is highly debatable in my opinion. Again, most teams do not choose to retain all of their free agents, as they pick and choose who will stay.

One would expect them to retain both Thomases (my examples of 9m cap hit for Demarius and 6m for Julius in year one) for a total of 15m dollars.

The rest could easily total another 15m at most, and that's if they really go out of their way to keep the majority of their players.

That gives me a total of 30m spent at best, with another 20m to spend in free agency however they please.

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In comparison, NE could have about 30m dollars in cap space, if they chose to carry over the rest of their 10m from this year, and added in a Revis savings of 12m (from the current 25m cap hit). We'll also add in almost 10m for the cap increase, let's say a guesstimate of 8m dollars for the new increase. That equals 30m dollars in available cap space.

That leaves us to re-sign Gostkowski, McCourty, Cannon, Ridley, etc.

I would imagine that we could have at least 12--15m dollars remaining without any other moves, but I still don't see how you figure us to be in "better" shape than DEN.

Your projections with D.Thomas and a 13m dollar cap hit in his year one pact (or even franchise tag) are a bit high, in my opinion. I think it's business as usual for both sides, just the same way we've grown to expect.

I think the important thing to note is that neither DEN nor NE are projected to have major cap issues for 2015.

I think the Bronco team is wearing down. The replacements are NOT equal to those they replaced.

• Sanders is a speedy smurf and not equal to near #1 Decker.
• Hillman is a smallish scatback, ten lbs lighter than Vereen, and not an equal substitute for Moreno.
  
• Welker is two years older, losing quickness, and IMHO going "Over the Hill".
• Clady is not what he was before the injury.
• Harris is not nearly the equivalent of Champ Bailey in his prime.
• Ware is getting older and less of a pass rush threat, everyday.
• Manning is older than Brady and his arm strength is visibly declining.

Pats are not going to roll over the cap space they now have. Pats are likely to lose $1.2m as players reached NLTBE 46-man active roster bonuses. Pats have $6.7 million in other NLTBE incentives that are likely to be reached. It is doubtful that the Broncos have anywhere close to that number in incentives. As Patriots players reach their NTLBE incentives in 2015 they make them LTBE in 2015 increasing their 2015 cap number. Vollmer's 2015 cap number can increase from $4.5m to $7.75m.

Moving target - Broncos will have cap problems in 2015 to Patriots are in better cap position in 2015.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on...d-broncos-mortgage-future-with-spending-spree may be helpful

mgteich said:

I think the important thing to note is that neither DEN nor NE are projected to have major cap issues for 2015.

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Yes. The above includes resigning all starters.

Miguel said:

Pats are not going to roll over the cap space they now have. Pats are likely to lose $1.2m as players reached NLTBE 46-man active roster bonuses. Pats have $6.7 million in other NLTBE incentives that are likely to be reached. It is doubtful that the Broncos have anywhere close to that number in incentives. As Patriots players reach their NTLBE incentives in 2015 they make them LTBE in 2015 increasing their 2015 cap number. Vollmer's 2015 cap number can increase from $4.5m to $7.75m.

Moving target - Broncos will have cap problems in 2015 to Patriots are in better cap position in 2015.

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Regarding the incentives, I'll take your word for it. That would bring the teams to about even based on what I posted above. Also, I'm not sure what the moving target bit means, but I was just doing a comparison between the two, not a straight analysis of Denver.

The point is that the more room resigning all starters would leave, the more cap space there is to instead sign an upgrade or upgrades instead of resigning the starter(s). So it is somewhat of a gage for how well positioned the team is to make improvements via FA.

http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/?p=869 is this week's tracking of the Broncos incentives.
http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/?p=800 is my 2015 salary cap preview.

frongi said:

I'm not sure what the moving target bit means, but I was just doing a comparison between the two, not a straight analysis of Denver.

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My moving target comment was meant as a general comment. Some Patriots fans believe that the Broncos will be facing major cap problems next year. Once it was shown that there is simply no evidence of that the comparison is made that the Patriots will be better off cap-wise in 2015 even though they and not the Broncos have to account for large number of easily reached NLTBE incentives in 2014. I do not follow the Broncos' salary cap as well as I do the Patriots but when I read reports about Broncos contracts there is very little mention of incentives.

Do not understand the importance some fans put on retaining all of the previous year's players/starters. Teams have to make room for each year's draft class. The Broncos lost a good number of free agents this offseason and have a pretty good record so far this year. Out of the 53 Patriots who played in the AFC championship game over 20 are not on the 53-man roster this year. Roster turnover happens.

AzPatsFan said:

I think the Bronco team is wearing down. The replacements are NOT equal to those they replaced.

• Sanders is a speedy smurf and not equal to near #1 Decker.
• Hillyard is a smallish scatback, ten lbs lighter than Vereen, and not an equal substitute for Moreno.
  
• Welker is two years older, losing quickness, and IMHO going "Over the Hill".
• Clady is not what he was before the injury.
• Harris is not nearly the equivalent of Champ Bailey in his prime.
• Ware is getting older and less of a pass rush threat, everyday.
• Manning is older than Brady and his arm strength is visibly declining.

Click to expand...

-Sanders vs Decker needs to be examined in context of the entire receiving corp. Decker was a tremendous red zone target but Julius Thomas has sufficiently replaced that lost production. Sanders is a much more dynamic piece to their offense considering his versatility. Sanders is only 8 weeks into his Denver career......but the NFL is starting to see the kind of threat he is. Like Lafell, expect more.
I view Denver's receiver package as a perfectly constructed unit and Manning can lean on any of their big 3...Thomas, Thomas, Sanders. Little Wes has virtually disappeared......thanks to Sanders.
Denver's only issue for this grouping is depth.
-The loss of Moreno was a huge hit...and I didn't understand why they so easily allowed such a productive back to exit. Money is the great equalizer in the NFL and in this instance, the cap forced their hand. Will they eventually regret it?
-Welker is a 4th option. Tells you how strong their corp is. His perceived decline is meaningless.
-Clady....I don't know....but as a whole, Manning's jersey is clean after every game.
-Champ Baily out...Talib fills that $$$ slot.
-Ware = a sack per game is top 5 production in the league...Some decline
-Manning sets records every game.and leads the league in most QB categories......Some decline.

Wearing down???? In your dreams maybe.

frongi said:

Yes. The above includes resigning all starters.



Regarding the incentives, I'll take your word for it.

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That would be the smart move.

AzPatsFan said:

I think the Bronco team is wearing down. The replacements are NOT equal to those they replaced.

• Sanders is a speedy smurf and not equal to near #1 Decker.
• Hillyard is a smallish scatback, ten lbs lighter than Vereen, and not an equal substitute for Moreno.
  
• Welker is two years older, losing quickness, and IMHO going "Over the Hill".
• Clady is not what he was before the injury.
• Harris is not nearly the equivalent of Champ Bailey in his prime.
• Ware is getting older and less of a pass rush threat, everyday.
• Manning is older than Brady and his arm strength is visibly declining.

Click to expand...

If only that were all true and meaningful.....

Miguel said:

My moving target comment was meant as a general comment. Some Patriots fans believe that the Broncos will be facing major cap problems next year. Once it was shown that there is simply no evidence of that the comparison is made that the Patriots will be better off cap-wise in 2015 even though they and not the Broncos have to account for large number of easily reached NLTBE incentives in 2014. I do not follow the Broncos' salary cap as well as I do the Patriots but when I read reports about Broncos contracts there is very little mention of incentives.

Do not understand the importance some fans put on retaining all of the previous year's players/starters. Teams have to make room for each year's draft class. The Broncos lost a good number of free agents this offseason and have a pretty good record so far this year. Out of the 53 Patriots who played in the AFC championship game over 20 are not on the 53-man roster this year. Roster turnover happens.

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Regarding the moving target - I see what you mean now. I agree. People thought Denver would be in trouble, but they won't. Denver has done a great job maintaining flexibility.

As far as the remaining starters go, here is my angle. In theory, if a team doesn't have enough money to resign it's own starters, it won't have enough money to upgrade on those starters through FA. If they could resign their starters and have money left over, they can get upgrades in FA instead of resigning all their starters. For example, Cowboys had to let ware go and were not able to sign a better (or even comparable) player. An example in the opposite direction: Denver had enough money to resign all their starters and then some last year, so instead they were able to sign the more expensive Talib. That is the importance of having enough mone to resign your starters or not. With more than enough you can get upgrades instead by spending more. Without enough you have to take a downgrade.

With the incentives you mentioned, I think den and ne will have roughly the same amount of extra cap if they were to resign their own players, thus they both will have roughly the same amount of money to spend on upgrades. Does that make sense to you Miguel?

I think the common fallacy is that when a team gives huge contracts one year, they are in cap trouble the next. For many teams, cap hits for big contracts don't hit until years three or four especially if the sign an older player to multiyear contract and cut him after two year which we might see with Ware.

I don't think many teams get into cap he'll anymore, but a lot get into cap heck. There isn't the need to cut multiple players to get under the cap anymore, but teams are forced to let go of older players with big contracts before they want to because they are not playing up to these contracts (the reason why the Broncos have Ware now). I expect this to happen to the Broncos in a few years.

I think the Broncos are likely to lose one of the Thomases next year. Whichever which one gets franchised (I expect it to be D Thomas), the other one will likely want to test free agency. Either guy will get offered top of the market money. I don't think the Broncos can afford to give both Thomases and Von Miller top of the market money and all will command that at this point. I think Julius Thomas is a products of Manning in a lot of ways and I expect Elway to let him walk if he doesn't take a hometown discount.

AzPatsFan said:

I think the Bronco team is wearing down. The replacements are NOT equal to those they replaced.

• Sanders is a speedy smurf and not equal to near #1 Decker.
• Hillman is a smallish scatback, ten lbs lighter than Vereen, and not an equal substitute for Moreno.
  
• Welker is two years older, losing quickness, and IMHO going "Over the Hill".
• Clady is not what he was before the injury.
• Harris is not nearly the equivalent of Champ Bailey in his prime.
• Ware is getting older and less of a pass rush threat, everyday.
• Manning is older than Brady and his arm strength is visibly declining.

Click to expand...

Denver gained a lot and lost a lot, but I think with a net gain this year - they're a better team. Not sure that will hold going into the playoffs, but face facts.

Sanders has more than filled in for Decker.
Hillman has played okay, but yeah, the lost a lot with Moreno leaving.
Welker looks like he's on a clear decline from what I've seen. Part of that is Sanders rise.
The Denver OL looks great, sorry.
Champ Bailey was nowhere near his prime last year.
Ware has 7 sacks this year. He replaced Shaun Philips, who had 10 last year.
And yet, all he does is win...

Denver's been very lucky, injury-wise, so far this year. They're also very good, don't kid yourself.

borg said:

-Sanders vs Decker needs to be examined in context of the entire receiving corp. Decker was a tremendous red zone target but Julius Thomas has sufficiently replaced that lost production. Sanders is a much more dynamic piece to their offense considering his versatility. Sanders is only 8 weeks into his Denver career......but the NFL is starting to see the kind of threat he is. Like Lafell, expect more.
I view Denver's receiver package as a perfectly constructed unit and Manning can lean on any of their big 3...Thomas, Thomas, Sanders. Little Wes has virtually disappeared......thanks to Sanders.
Denver's only issue for this grouping is depth.
-The loss of Moreno was a huge hit...and I didn't understand why they so easily allowed such a productive back to exit. Money is the great equalizer in the NFL and in this instance, the cap forced their hand. Will they eventually regret it?
-Welker is a 4th option. Tells you how strong their corp is. His perceived decline is meaningless.
-Clady....I don't know....but as a whole, Manning's jersey is clean after every game.
-Champ Baily out...Talib fills that $$$ slot.
-Ware = a sack per game is top 5 production in the league...Some decline
-Manning sets records every game.and leads the league in most QB categories......Some decline.

Wearing down???? In your dreams maybe.

Click to expand...

Believe what you will.

The Broncos are not scoring at the rate they did last year. The Broncs started out complete, this season, and are lesser team now than Game 1.

The Pats are stronger today at Game 8, than Game 1. That trend is continuing.

50-yard-line said:

Denver gained a lot and lost a lot, but I think with a net gain this year - they're a better team. Not sure that will hold going into the playoffs, but face facts.

Sanders has more than filled in for Decker.
Hillman has played okay, but yeah, the lost a lot with Moreno leaving.
Welker looks like he's on a clear decline from what I've seen. Part of that is Sanders rise.
The Denver OL looks great, sorry.
Champ Bailey was nowhere near his prime last year.
Ware has 7 sacks this year. He replaced Shaun Philips, who had 10 last year.
And yet, all he does is win...

Denver's been very lucky, injury-wise, so far this year. They're also very good, don't kid yourself.

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Denver is really good, but one thing we do not know about them is how good are they on the road. They have only played two games thus far and their offense didn't play great in either game (at least much of the game). Against the Seahawks, they scored 3 points the first three quarters. Against the Jets, they punted 8 times with four drives having negative yards.

The Broncos have some tough road games potentially in bad weather coming up. They have the Pats on Sunday, they have the Chiefs in late November, and the Bengals in late December. All those could be bad weather games vs. good teams. They also have to go to San Diego. If their offense continues not to travel well, they could get two or even three losses in those games. If the Jets had any offense, they would have beat the Broncos.

The Broncos are a top team in this league, if not the top, but I think they could be vulnerable and could be an average road team.

AzPatsFan said:

Believe what you will.

The Broncos are not scoring at the rate they did last year. The Broncs started out complete, this season, and are lesser team now than Game 1.

The Pats are stronger today at Game 8, than Game 1. That trend is continuing.

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Eh, I'm in the Denver is stronger than New England camp right now.

-They have played far better teams so far.

-They have not lost to injury anywhere close to the important personnel the Patriots have (#1 RB, #1LB, #1DE)

HOWEVER:

-They have played 5 of their 7 games at home

-They've already had their bye.

-They were lucky last year with warm weather games down the stretch and in the playoffs. This Sunday in Foxboro may be brutal for Manning. November 30th in KC will probably be cold, as will Dec 22 in Cincy. I'm not so sure they can count on a 62 degree day in Denver this time around either for the AFCCG.

So, yes, right now the Broncos are the horse in the clear lead. I do see the Patriots in pretty good position with some favorable conditions coming down the stretch, however.

frongi said:

Mods may want to move this, but there were some posts in the "I can't stand it" thread regarding denver's 2015 cap and our 2015 cap. I decided to do a little research and ended up doing way more than I meant to. Some of you might find this interesting/useful. Note these numbers are approximate and rounded.

Denver has about 108.5 million in contracts for next year among 38 players. I have them resigning 8 players for 41.5 million, and the minimum for 5 guys to get them to 51 (2.5 million). They will also have about 1 million in cap space. This brings them to a total of 153.5 million. They are about 10 million below their cap which would bring them down to 143.5 million.

The eight guys are: D Thomas (13m), J Thomas (8m), C Harris (7m), Knighton (5.5m), Moore (2.5m), Franklin (2.5m), Irving (1.5m), Marshall(1.5m).

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Those contract values in the first year of a contract extension are ridiculous. The vast majority of contracts are heavily back loaded.

shmessy said:

Eh, I'm in the Denver is stronger than New England camp right now.

-They have played far better teams so far.

-They have not lost to injury anywhere close to the important personnel the Patriots have (#1 RB, #1LB, #1DE)

HOWEVER:

-They have played 5 of their 7 games at home

-They've already had their bye.

-They were lucky last year with warm weather games down the stretch and in the playoffs. This Sunday in Foxboro may be brutal for Manning. November 30th in KC will probably be cold, as will Dec 22 in Cincy. I'm not so sure they can count on a 62 degree day in Denver this time around either for the AFCCG.

So, yes, right now the Broncos are the horse in the clear lead. I do see the Patriots in pretty good position with some favorable conditions coming down the stretch, however.

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That is my basic feelings too.

I think this could be the weekend that Talib has his annual hip injury. He seems to get injured in big games and if they decide to put him on Gronk, he could easily get injured trying to outmuscle Gronk.