My Blueprint for the Defense

mayoclinic · Oct 28, 2014

mayoclinic said:
With all kinds of wild trade rumors being tossed around, I floated a hypothetic (and very, very unlikely) trade with the Giants for Jason Pierre-Paul, meant purely for speculation. Andy Johnson had this provocative reply:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/threads/marshawn-a-patriot.1113010/page-3 (post #44)

An interesting idea. It could certainly change the type of defensive edge player that BB looks for in the draft. Thoughts?

There has been some internet speculation that Mark Barron might be available for trade:

http://www.bucsnation.com/2014/10/2...g-martin-mark-barron-vincent-jackson-deadline

Probably far-fetched. But if you buy Andy's argument that "the base is dead" and that the challenge is to "figure out how to stop the run from the nickel", then the idea of trading for Mark Barron might actually make sense. Assume that you have a core group 4 linemen, Collins and Hightower as the LBs, Barron as a LB/S, and 4 additional DBs. Akeem Ayers becomes a sub rusher, as well as depth at LB.

An interesting idea.

mayoclinic · Oct 28, 2014

yopats said:
Would love for you to flesh out your thoughts in what an ideal front 7 looks like?

I'm not sure what you want. "Ideal front 7" using our existing personnel, or how I'd like to address it in the draft?

yopats · Oct 28, 2014

mayoclinic said:
I'm not sure what you want. "Ideal front 7" using our existing personnel, or how I'd like to address it in the draft?

Let's say both.. right now and going into 2015.

mayoclinic · Oct 28, 2014

yopats said:
Let's say both.. right now and going into 2015.

A lot depends on scheme and priorities.

Let's assume that Andy's assumption is right, and that the game will be played predominantly out of a 4-2-5 (really 4-2-1-4) sub defense (see posts #935, 937 and 939 above). Then I would probably look at the following:

DL: Ninkovich-Wilfork-Easley-Jones (with Ayers subbing for Jones until he's back, and getting reps as a sub rusher)
LB: Hightower-Collins (with Ayers also getting some reps at LB)
LB/S: Chung/Ebner, unless we can swing a trade for Mark Barron
DB: Revis, Browner, McCourty, Ryan/Dennard/Arrington

If we were running more of a true base, then I'd love for Alan Branch to actually be signed and run a 4-3 Under.

For 2015, I'd look at guys like Dante Fowler, Shane Ray, Bud Dupree and Shilique Calhoun (probably in that order) as versatile DE/OLB guys who can rush off the edge, and play at different spots on the front 7; I'd look at which of those guys is more likely to be able to effectively set the edge. I like Shawn Oakman and Arik Armstead as base DEs who can move inside, but that's less of a priority if we're playing most of the game in a 4-2-1-4 scheme; if we're playing more of a traditional "base" then I'd prioritize those guys. The "star" position becomes very important, so I'd consider trading for Mark Barron, or looking at guys like Shaq Thompson, Cody Prewitt or Jaquiski Tartt. Mayo should be back, which will also allow Hightower to be moved around more. I'd also look at a more mobile LB like Bernardrick McKinney.

I think the more versatile pieces you have that you can move around, the better. Collins, Hightower, Ninkovich, Jones and Easley all have a ton of versatility. All of the guys I've mentioned fit the bill, though in different ways.

Finally, you need a space eater in the middle. I'm fine with Wilfork, Siliga and Walker for now. If Wilfork doesn't have much left I'd look at someone in FA (Knighton would be ideal). I don't think you need to spend a top draft pick on a space eater. I'm still hoping the Pats eventually sign Alan Branch.

mayoclinic · Oct 28, 2014

mayoclinic said:
There has been some internet speculation that Mark Barron might be available for trade:

http://www.bucsnation.com/2014/10/2...g-martin-mark-barron-vincent-jackson-deadline

Probably far-fetched. But if you buy Andy's argument that "the base is dead" and that the challenge is to "figure out how to stop the run from the nickel", then the idea of trading for Mark Barron might actually make sense. Assume that you have a core group 4 linemen, Collins and Hightower as the LBs, Barron as a LB/S, and 4 additional DBs. Akeem Ayers becomes a sub rusher, as well as depth at LB.

An interesting idea.

No Mark Barron. But Jonathan Casillas fits the "base is dead" philosophy, too. He's a speedy, rangy, coverage LB who can probably play as a LB/S hybrid. He reportedly had 4.41 speed coming out of Wisconsin. At 6'1" 228# he's smaller, faster - and 8 years younger - than Adrian Wilson.

mayoclinic · Oct 29, 2014

mayoclinic said:
No Mark Barron. But Jonathan Casillas fits the "base is dead" philosophy, too. He's a speedy, rangy, coverage LB who can probably play as a LB/S hybrid. He reportedly had 4.41 speed coming out of Wisconsin. At 6'1" 228# he's smaller, faster - and 8 years younger - than Adrian Wilson.

Thinking more about Casillas, going back to the OP and the "Seattle" model, I think that Casillas fits very well as our Malcolm Smith. Smith (6' 226#, 4.44 40) is a speedy LB with safety range who allowed the Seahawks to stay in "base" against Denver in the SB, and not give up coverage ability.

I think the Pats could easily substitute Casillas for Chung and have a 4-2-1-4 "base/nickel" that looks something like this on the back end:

LB Hightower - Collins
LB/S Casillas/Chung/Ebner
DB Revis, Browning, McCourty, Dennard/Ryan/Arrington

Ayers could get reps both at LB or as a sub rusher. In the dime you could have 2 LB/S players, and move Hightower or Collins up on the line.

Add Alan Branch to the DL, and I think that BB has reloaded this defense in short time, and at minimal cost, and also positioned it to be potentially stronger and deeper going into 2015 (depending on the FAs).

mayoclinic · Oct 29, 2014

Alan Branch reportedly signed:

http://nesn.com/2014/10/report-alan-branch-finally-signs-with-patriots-will-practice-wednesday/

The DL looks pretty nice right now:

DL: [Jones], Wilfork, Easley, Branch, Ninkovich, Chris Jones, [Siliga], Walker, Moore
LB: Hightower, Collins, Ayers, Casillas, White (Skinner released)
S: McCourty, Chung, Ebner, Wilson, Harmon, Jones
CB: Revis, Browner, Dennard, Ryan, Arrington, Butler

patsfaninpa · Oct 29, 2014

I'm cautioustly optimistic about our defense. Especially, once Chandler Jones and Silver Slugger come back. Might have a nice rotation on DL and depth in the secondary. Fingers crossed Hightower and Collins stay healthy

mayoclinic · Oct 29, 2014

patsfaninpa said:
I'm cautioustly optimistic about our defense. Especially, once Chandler Jones and Silver Slugger come back. Might have a nice rotation on DL and depth in the secondary. Fingers crossed Hightower and Collins stay healthy

I very much like these 3 acquisitions: low cost, low cap hit, and they show a consistent direction. All 3 are role players with nice niche skill sets and some versatility, who not only provide depth but borderline starting capability. They should allow the potential playmakers on the front 7 - Jones when he returns, Easley, Hightower and Collins - to be used to create mismatches, and not to plug holes.

captain stone · Oct 29, 2014

None of the 3 new guys will ever make a Pro Bowl, or even be decent starters, but at the very least
they should keep the uselessness of Vellano, Skinner & JAG Davis off of the 53 for good (I hope).
Not one draft pick was lost to acquire them, so these moves make sense in both the short- and long term.

Priority #1 for the defense remains, however, an athletic pass-rushing DE.

mayoclinic · Oct 29, 2014

captain stone said:
None of the 3 new guys will ever make a Pro Bowl, or even be decent starters, but at the very least
they should keep the uselessness of Vellano, Skinner & JAG Davis off of the 53 for good (I hope).
Not one draft pick was lost to acquire them, so these moves make sense in both the short- and long term.

Priority #1 for the defense remains, however, an athletic pass-rushing DE.

They've all been decent starters at various times in their careers, not too long ago. All can contribute as role payers. It's a huge upgrade in depth, overall talent, and versatility, which should allow the guys who should be capable of making the Pro Bowl to be used more creatively.

An athletic pass rushing DE is my #1 defensive priority for 2015.

Ochmed Jones · Oct 29, 2014

I thought Easley stepped up last week. If he continues to make progress, he could be special come playoff time.

luuked · Oct 30, 2014

I essentially only really follow the Patriots so excuse my maybe ignorant question but lets assume that Andy is right and "the base is dead", is there any other team in the league that already plays like that ?

Ultimately, I wonder if letting go of the base defense means that we will be once again able to gain a (temporary ?) advantage at drafting because we look for specific types of players that are maybe not as highly valued by teams that play more traditionally.

mayoclinic · Oct 30, 2014

Richard Hill argues that Jonathan Casillas could be a significant piece to the NE defense, and that he could be our Roman Phifer:

Bill Belichick gave his highest praise to new acquisition Jonathan Casillas on his morning conference call. He considers Casillas a "four down player." That's a term reserved for first round picks (Devin McCourty) and players who stick around for a long while (Rob Ninkovich, Kyle Arrington, Brandon Bolden). It means that Casillas has the skill set to play against the run, against the pass, and on special teams.

It means that Belichick thinks that Casillas can have an impact this season.

But how will that happen? The 6'1, 230 lbs linebacker isn't of the traditional Belichick-linebacker build. He's not 6'3, he's not 250 lbs, he's not a standard player you would see on a Patriots defense. He's a 4-3 outside linebacker who is best when used covering tight ends and running backs in the flat.

When looking at the Patriots current roster make-up, it's clear that they're not capable of a consistent 4-3 so long as Chandler Jones is recovering from a hip injury. Dominique Easley can play admirably at the defensive end spot, even if it's a complete misuse of his skill set, but it's clear the team's current defensive line is built on all of the 4-3 defensive tackles.

So how does Casillas fit into this four down mindset? First, the starters in the front seven- those who will dictate the defensive alignments- need to be noted. In reality, the only players who are on the field for the majority of the game are Dont'a Hightower and Rob Ninkovich, players who can succeed in both the 3-4 and the 4-3. Vince Wilfork is the next in line and, in the same vein, is multiple in his fronts.

There's Jamie Collins, who should be on the edge in either the 3-4 or the 4-3. Same with Akeem Ayers. The team views Easley as someone who can line up anywhere on the defensive line.

Main point? There is no defense. Chandler Jones is the only reason this team uses the 4-3 as its base set; without Jones, the team is just as likely to line up in the 4-3 and the 3-4. In reality, Ninkovich, Hightower, Collins, and Ayers are all edge players who can drop back into zone coverage, can stop the run, and can rush the passer. The team just chooses to play Hightower and Collins in the middle.

And this is where Casillas comes into play.

Collins shouldn't be in the middle. He was far better against the Bears than he was against the Jets, but he's imitating Hightower of 2013: an edge player out of position in the middle of the field due to injuries. The Patriots need to keep Collins on the outside edge of the defensive front and in a more comfortable position. I don't believe the trade for Casillas was to get Collins off of the field.

Instead, look for Casillas to complement Hightower in the middle of the field. Let Hightower thump and Casillas cover. Collins will be free to play on the outside in both the 3-4 and the 4-3, while Ayers can slide from 4-3 defensive end to 3-4 outside linebacker. Of course, Ninkovich can rotate with Ayers and Collins to keep fresh, especially as he's been looking particularly nicked up the past couple of weeks.

http://www.patspulpit.com/2014/10/2...-new-linebacker-jonathan-casillas-a-four-down

Interesting thoughts. FWIW, Drew Boylhart had this to say about Casillas when he came out in 2009:

Jonathan Casillas LB Wisconsin

STRENGTHS

Jonathan is an excellent football player who can play multiple positions. He has excellent instincts and plays his position with passion and intelligence. He has good size and speed and is fluid, athletic and stout enough to defend against both the run and the pass. Jonathan can play any one of the LB positions, but will need to be in a certain system to play the MLB at the next level. He looks to be an excellent teammate and is like a coach on the field. He makes the players around him better and understands situational football.

TALENT BOARD ROUND 2

If Jonathan had been able to work out, I think everyone would be talking about this kid as a possible 1st round pick. As far as playing the MLB, he would have to be in a 4-3, 2-gap system so those big DT's could take on those big guards and Jonathan could flow to the play. What surprises me when I watch Jonathan play is how well he slips blocks and makes tackles in the running game. He doesn't run around blocks; he takes them on and then slithers through them like a ghost through a wall in the middle of the night. He just pops through the other side and makes the play. His instincts to attack the running play before it gets started are the real keys to his slithering ability to stop the run and before his knee problems he was very fluid in pass defense. Jonathan could play multiple positions in your defense. He could play any one of the LB positions (depending on your defense) and he could play as a safety also.

http://www.thehuddlereport.com/archive/2009profiles/Jonathan.Casillas.htm

I think that BB will use Casillas in a variety of roles: WLB, LB/S, and possibly inside at times. I think it's very interesting that he chose to trade for Casillas, given other available options.

mayoclinic · Oct 30, 2014

According to Reiss the Pats were in sub for 90% of the snaps against the Bears (63/70):

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-.../4771257/sub-defense-stats-spike-for-patriots

That trend is likely to continue against the Broncos.

patsfaninpa · Oct 30, 2014

mayoclinic said:
According to Reiss the Pats were in sub for 90% of the snaps against the Bears (63/70):

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-.../4771257/sub-defense-stats-spike-for-patriots

That trend is likely to continue against the Broncos.

Hope Branch can contribute. Would like to use him a little on 1st and 2nd down. If we get them in 3rd and long rotate Jones in. Another long day for Vince. At least it's not too hot.

Maybe by the playoffs we'll be able to get Vince and Silega off the field on passing downs with Jones and Easley at DT. With Ninkovich at de you can drop into coverage and blitz Hightower and Collins from different areas. Hightower right up the gut would be worth a few shots.

Marinlik · Oct 31, 2014

Watching some Dante Fowler(FL) right now. I really like him. He's aggressive when it comes to batting away the blockers hands, when he does it he really puts power in it. He uses both swim and rip moves and he takes good angles in pass rushing. He's very fast.

Most of the time he continues to play even when the play goes far away from him, instead of jogging like some guys.

He does struggle some against read plays and play action roll outs. Seems to shoot really hard to make the tackle for loss inside on runs. But that can mean losing contain and letting the QB roll out free, or have the QB keep it on reads. But I think this is coachable, because against LSU(2014) he struggled with it in the first half, and in the second half he looks much more chilled when it comes to roll outs and reads.

Also struggled some when trying to tackle a QB rolling out. Didn't break down, so when the QB side stepped he flew right by him.

Overall I would really like him for our defensive. I think that he would really fit this defensive without clear formation that we are running. At Florida he lines up at both sides of the line. Rushes just as well from a 2 point stance as from a 3 point stance. Even lines up as blitzing LB in the A gap from time to time and is pretty good at that too.

mayoclinic · Oct 31, 2014

Marinlik said:
Watching some Dante Fowler(FL) right now. I really like him. He's aggressive when it comes to batting away the blockers hands, when he does it he really puts power in it. He uses both swim and rip moves and he takes good angles in pass rushing. He's very fast.

Most of the time he continues to play even when the play goes far away from him, instead of jogging like some guys.

He does struggle some against read plays and play action roll outs. Seems to shoot really hard to make the tackle for loss inside on runs. But that can mean losing contain and letting the QB roll out free, or have the QB keep it on reads. But I think this is coachable, because against LSU(2014) he struggled with it in the first half, and in the second half he looks much more chilled when it comes to roll outs and reads.

Also struggled some when trying to tackle a QB rolling out. Didn't break down, so when the QB side stepped he flew right by him.

Overall I would really like him for our defensive. I think that he would really fit this defensive without clear formation that we are running. At Florida he lines up at both sides of the line. Rushes just as well from a 2 point stance as from a 3 point stance. Even lines up as blitzing LB in the A gap from time to time and is pretty good at that too.

I like Fowler a lot. Right now I have Shawn Oakman, Fowler and Alvin Dupree as my top 3, with Arik Armstead also in the mix depending on what kind of player BB is looking for. Oakman is still my personal favorite, but Fowler and Dupree may fit a a "defense without a clear formation" better. Shane Ray, Shilique Calhoun, Randy Gregory and Vic Beasley are all interesting, but seem a bit more limited in the roles they could fill.

Peachhead · Oct 31, 2014

mayoclinic said:
According to Reiss the Pats were in sub for 90% of the snaps against the Bears (63/70):

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-.../4771257/sub-defense-stats-spike-for-patriots

That trend is likely to continue against the Broncos.

Our run defense sucked pretty badly against the Bears (although it's sucked for most of the year as well). Luckily our offense made them abandon the run in order to keep up. Run up against a good pass defense and we might not be so lucky.

Logic would tell me there's something to the "large % of sub defense/bad run defense" correlation. But I guess BB feels otherwise.

mayoclinic · Nov 1, 2014

Right now my personal DE rankings:

1a. Shawn Oakman. Comparison: a bigger, stronger Michael Johnson.

1b. Bud Dupree. Comparison: Ziggy Ansah.

3. Dante Fowler. Comparison: Melvin Ingram.

4. Arik Armstead. Comparison: Calais Campbell.

5. Shane Ray. Comparison: a more athletic Justin Houston.

6. Shilique Calhoun. Comparison: a poor man's Aldon Smith, without the issues.

7. Vic Beasley. Comparison: a poor man's Von Miller.

8. Randy Gregory. Comparison: a better version of Manny Lawson.

My Blueprint for the Defense

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