Doubting the Aaron Hernandez explanation for lack of spending

I keep on hearing that the reason that the Patriots did not spend so much this year in free agency was because of the $7.5 million dead money cap hit for Aaron Hernandez. The Patriots are dead last in cash spending this year and they have been close to the bottom all offseason. Other teams have spent more cash than the Patriots and also had players with large dead money hits on their cap.

Examples -
Cowboys and Demarcus Ware and Jay Ratliff
Browns - Trent Richardson
Steelers - Willie Colon and Lamarr Woodley. Steelers had to carry their 2014 salaries on its cap until 6/2.
Bears - Julius Peppers
Eagles - DeSean Jackson

Please note that the 5 above team are among the leaders in cash spending this year.

Source - http://overthecap.com/cash-spending

Before his release by the Patriots Aaron Hernandez was scheduled to count $4.2m against the 2014 cap. He now counts $7.5 million. That is an increase of $3.3 million. One could make the argument that this increase was more than offset by the decrease in Wilfork's and Kelly's 2014 cap numbers that occurred during the duo's restructures.

Why have teams with similar dead money hits have been able to spend more cash than the Patriots this offseason?

Why did an increase of $3.3 million in a player's cap number crippled the Patriots?

Do we expect that a similar increase ( Vollmer's 2015 cap number from $4.5m to $7.75 million) to cripple the Patriots in free agency next offseason?

Well, I think it is to give the other teams a chance. If they started to spend money, it wouldn't be fair so...

In fairness, the Hernandez dead money excuse is media speculation and not an excuse used by the Pats themselves. I personally never bought into it.

The funny thing is that before the Mankins trade, the perception was the Pats were all in spending like crazy to win a championship. After the Mankins trade, the perception is that the Pats are business as usually and cutting corners when they should be spending big bucks to put talent around Brady.

I am not the cap expert here (far from it), but isn't their actual dollars spent a little misleading because of Brady's deal? He has a high cap number (the highest on the team at $14.8 million), but getting very little in actual dollars (relatively) at $2 million.

And if McCourty, Revis, or other players get extensions before the season is over, their actual real money spent will jump quite a bit.

More interesting than the actual numbers in this post, to me, is that this is the first time I've seen you raise a question like this about the Pats' money management. Maybe I've missed it, but in the past, you've been more the person to calm things down rather than stir them up.

Rob0729 said:

In fairness, the Hernandez dead money excuse is media speculation and not an excuse used by the Pats themselves.

Click to expand...

I have seen several posts on this board. Have yet to see it speculated by the media. Please note that I do not listen to Felger and Mazz.

Isn't a lot of the cap room because they traded Mankins though? I don't think they had all that much before the trade I thought it was less than 5. Man would it have been nice to have signed both LaFell and Sanders, oh well.

Miguel said:

I have seen several posts on this board. Have yet to see it speculated by the media. Please note that I do not listen to Felger and Mazz.

Click to expand...

I heard Curran mention it on WEEI on Friday as a reason.

Miguel said:

I have seen several posts on this board. Have yet to see it speculated by the media. Please note that I do not listen to Felger and Mazz.

Click to expand...

My point it is speculation rather than an excuse being given by the Pats. I never bought into it. It doesn't seem like the Pats MO to not spend money just because they have dead money from a player cut. It actually doesn't make sense because dead money is money already paid in the past and even though it is new money on the cap, it isn't new money out of Bob Kraft's pockets.

I have heard speculation on many talk shows, but I admit I can't remember who said it. So it could be callers calling in floating that theory. It is definitely a ridiculous theory that Felger and Mazz would float.

Miguel said:

The Patriots are dead last in cash spending this year and they have been close to the bottom all offseason. Other teams have spent more cash than the Patriots and also had players with large dead money hits on their cap.

Click to expand...

Do you have any thoughts on what the reason for this is. The most common postulated "theories" are:

1. Kraft is cheap. Doesn't fit past behavior.

2. Hernandez' dead money. You've addressed this.

3. Saving for upcoming potential big money extensions (Revis, McCourty, Jones, Solder).

Do "possible" performance bonuses count into these cap numbers or do they get figured in when they are accrued? If so, then isn't there 6.5m out there in possible in season incentives that are theoretically tied up?

Note: I recall the 6.5m and don't recall the source, so I could be way off.

http://patscap.com/

The numbers are pretty obvious according to Miguel, the opening poster. I'm not sure where the cash would come from to fit under the current year cap, and the Patriots are absolutely correct in their approach not to hand out huge bonuses or long-term deals with huge guarantees. The market is set by outliers at every position, and rarely do those deals make sense long-term.

2015 and 2016 look like bigger per-team cap years with the Patriots having less dead money, so maybe a blockbuster will happen before 4 pm on Tuesday.

Have heard Robert Kraft earlier in the season say because of the LTBE's the actual money they had left to spend was about $3 million...

I am the furthest thing from a capologist, however why would he say that??

I hope this does descend into the depths of hell, "Bob Kraft is Cheap".

Miguel said:

I keep on hearing that the reason that the Patriots did not spend so much this year in free agency was because of the $7.5 million dead money cap hit for Aaron Hernandez. The Patriots are dead last in cash spending this year and they have been close to the bottom all offseason. Other teams have spent more cash than the Patriots and also had players with large dead money hits on their cap.

Examples -
Cowboys and Demarcus Ware and Jay Ratliff
Browns - Trent Richardson
Steelers - Willie Colon and Lamarr Woodley. Steelers had to carry their 2014 salaries on its cap until 6/2.
Bears - Julius Peppers
Eagles - DeSean Jackson

Please note that the 5 above team are among the leaders in cash spending this year.

Source - http://overthecap.com/cash-spending

Before his release by the Patriots Aaron Hernandez was scheduled to count $4.2m against the 2014 cap. He now counts $7.5 million. That is an increase of $3.3 million. One could make the argument that this increase was more than offset by the decrease in Wilfork's and Kelly's 2014 cap numbers that occurred during the duo's restructures.

Why have teams with similar dead money hits have been able to spend more cash than the Patriots this offseason?

Why did an increase of $3.3 million in a player's cap number crippled the Patriots?

Do we expect that a similar increase ( Vollmer's 2015 cap number from $4.5m to $7.75 million) to cripple the Patriots in free agency next offseason?

Click to expand...

Before the were paying 4.2m for a very good player. Note they're paying an extra 3.3m and don't have that player. So they have 3.3m less in cap space and they have to spend extra money just to replace him on the roster, let alone spend extra to improve the team from where they were.

The Vollmer situation isn't the same because they'll at least have his services next year and he's still playing well.

That's what makes the Hernandez situation so crippling. This isn't your normal "dead cap money" situation where you have a charge, but the player was unproductive so anyone replacing him will give you the same value -- for example, if they cut Amendola this spring. This is dead money for a very productive player -- so the team had to spend real money just to replace him, on top of taking the dead cap hit itself.

betterthanthealternative said:

More interesting than the actual numbers in this post, to me, is that this is the first time I've seen you raise a question like this about the Pats' money management.

Click to expand...

Purpose of my post was not to question the Patriots' money management but to debunk a theory. I simply do not buy the argument that the Hernandez release is the reason why the Patriots have spent so little this year. There are several more plausible reasons.
1.) Planned extensions (McCourty, Gostkowski, Slater). Never thought that the Pats and Revis would reach an extension during the season.
2.) Have space to cover easily reached NLTBE incentives. Pats have already lost $262,500 in cap space this year as Wilfork played in 3 more games this year. Pats have to account for $1.2m for reached NLTBE 46-man active roster bonuses. Plus, the Patriots have another $5.5m in incentives that I consider possible to be earned by Patriots players.
Follow my blog - http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/ as I track on a weekly basis the Patriots incentives.

mayoclinic said:

Do you have any thoughts on what the reason for this is. The most common postulated "theories" are:

1. Kraft is cheap. Doesn't fit past behavior.

Click to expand...

Those who contend that the Patriots should read
http://espn.go.com/boston/nfl/story/_/id/10586646/new-england-patriots-spent-free-agents-not-wisely
and explain how a "cheap team" could spend so much in 2010 and 2012.

The facts show that the Patriots are not cheap.

3. Saving for upcoming potential big money extensions (Revis, McCourty, Jones, Solder).

Click to expand...

Plausible reason.

Also, to save room for easily reached NLTBE incentives