The Passing Game Going Forward Through 2016 (WR, TE and RB)

mgteich · Oct 17, 2014

IMHO, this is the best passing offense since 2007, and it is set through 2016. We need only to re-sign Vereen and Tyms.

WIDE RECEIVERS
Our receivers seem set for 2014 (and 2015 and 2016). One can argue which receivers should be paid what, but I suspect that Belichick and Josh are fine with Edelman, LaFell, Amendola and even the injured Dobson as the #4 or #5. Tyms is also in the mix and will be a RFA next year. If we re-sign him (as we likely will), we will be set though 2016. Sure, Belichick might ask Amendola to take a cut, but maybe not. $13M or so is not too much for a set of 5 receivers.

TIGHT ENDS
Gronk is here forever. Wright and Hooman are here though 2015, with Wright as an RFA in 2016.

RUNNING BACK
Here we have the ONLY issue with the receivers going forward. We have White as a backup to Vereen. However, we do NEED to re-sign Vereen.

OFFENSIVE LINE
The OL will continue to develop. The OL that started last night will be here for the future, plus Stork and Fleming. Kline, Cannon and/or Connolly are the three who are most likely to go. Obviously, we all expect an OG or two to be added. However, what we have is a young, developing OL, with one old veteran (Connolly).

BOTTOM LINE
We need to re-sign Vereen. It would be good to re-sign Tyms. We could use an addition or two to the OL. Other than Vereen, this are minor additions. This passing offense is ready to play in 2014, 2015 and 2016.

Ice_Ice_Brady · Oct 17, 2014

mgteich said:
IMHO, this is the best offense since 2007.

Really?

mgteich · Oct 17, 2014

Ice_Ice_Brady said:
Really?

We are discussing our passing offense.

And which passing offenses have been better?

I am not talking about season stats. I am taking about what we have now and what we expect to have for the playoffs.

BradyFTW! · Oct 17, 2014

mgteich said:
We are discussing our passing offense.

And which passing offenses have been better?

I am not talking about season stats. I am taking about what we have now and what we expect to have for the playoffs.

2011. O-line is notably absent from your analysis, and the 2011 line of Light-Mankins-Connolly-Waters-Solder was one of the best. Not to mention that this was the apex of the TE Party with Gronk playing the best football of his career and Hernandez doing great. Welker and Brady were in their absolute primes, etc.

While the absence of a downfield WR was notable, it wasn't enough to stop the Pats from steamrolling everyone. That offense was an AFCCG Gronk injury away from dragging a legitimately bad defense to a SB win.

This year's offense may have a higher ceiling if the OL somehow turns into a strength, Gronk gets back to 100%, LaFell keeps up the good work and Wright evolves into a bigger role on the offense, but that's an awful lot of ifs.

Deus Irae · Oct 17, 2014

mgteich said:
IMHO, this is the best passing offense since 2007, and it is set through 2016. We need only to re-sign Vereen and Tyms.

mgteich · Oct 17, 2014

BradyFTW! said:
2011. O-line is notably absent from your analysis, and the 2011 line of Light-Mankins-Connolly-Waters-Solder was one of the best. Not to mention that this was the apex of the TE Party with Gronk playing the best football of his career and Hernandez doing great. Welker and Brady were in their absolute primes, etc.

While the absence of a downfield WR was notable, it wasn't enough to stop the Pats from steamrolling everyone. That offense was an AFCCG Gronk injury away from dragging a legitimately bad defense to a SB win.

This year's offense may have a higher ceiling if the OL somehow turns into a strength, Gronk gets back to 100%, LaFell keeps up the good work and Wright evolves into a bigger role on the offense, but that's an awful lot of ifs.

I agree that the 2011 offense WITH A HEALTHY GRONK throughout the playoffs would have been great. But it didn't happen.

I see no reason for LaFell and Wright not to keep up the good work. I would note that we COULD possibly get some production from Tyms or Dobson if that happens.

I agree that the health of Gronk is the key to success, yet again. I do see the OL we say yesterday improving when the injured return.

Brady6 · Oct 17, 2014

mgteich said:
IMHO, this is the best passing offense since 2007, and it is set through 2016. We need only to re-sign Vereen and Tyms.

WIDE RECEIVERS
Our receivers seem set for 2014 (and 2015 and 2016). One can argue which receivers should be paid what, but I suspect that Belichick and Josh are fine with Edelman, LaFell, Amendola and even the injured Dobson as the #4 or #5. Tyms is also in the mix and will be a RFA next year. If we re-sign him (as we likely will), we will be set though 2016. Sure, Belichick might ask Amendola to take a cut, but maybe not. $13M or so is not too much for a set of 5 receivers.

TIGHT ENDS
Gronk is here forever. Wright and Hooman are here though 2015, with Wright as an RFA in 2016.

RUNNING BACK
Here we have the ONLY issue with the receivers going forward. We have White as a backup to Vereen. However, we do NEED to re-sign Vereen.

OFFENSIVE LINE
The OL will continue to develop. The OL that started last night will be here for the future, plus Stork and Fleming. Kline, Cannon and/or Connolly are the three who are most likely to go. Obviously, we all expect an OG or two to be added. However, what we have is a young, developing OL, with one old veteran (Connolly).

BOTTOM LINE
We need to re-sign Vereen. It would be good to re-sign Tyms. We could use an addition or two to the OL. Other than Vereen, this are minor additions. This passing offense is ready to play in 2014, 2015 and 2016.

Amendola is trending for 11 catches and 96 yards this season. I know the 1 catch he had in last nights game has some hot and bothered on here but he has at best 9 regular season games left in a Patriots uniform. In addition, if Dobson or Tyms come on in the second half, which is possible especially Dobson, he could easily drop off the 46 man roster on game day.

If Dobson does not turn around this season he could be facing a make or break offseason and training camp in 2015.

Tyms would have to show a lot more before extensions started coming into the discussion.

Running back wise Tyler Gaffney and James White will factor into the 2015 plans.

The offense line needs and offseason overhaul at both guard positions. Wendell would be ideal as the top backup option for all 3 interior OL positions, and Cameron Fleming should slide into Cannon's role.

BradyFTW! · Oct 17, 2014

mgteich said:
I agree that the 2011 offense WITH A HEALTHY GRONK throughout the playoffs would have been great. But it didn't happen.

I see no reason for LaFell and Wright not to keep up the good work. I would note that we COULD possibly get some production from Tyms or Dobson if that happens.

I agree that the health of Gronk is the key to success, yet again. I do see the OL we say yesterday improving when the injured return.

But you're now comparing the health of this team in week 7 vs. the health of the 2011 team in the AFCCG. Not even close to an apples to apples comparison. At this point in 2011, the offense was much better than this one.

And again, when evaluating the passing game you just can't overlook the OL. While I've seen encouraging signs from this one over the past three weeks, even if they make it to their absolute ceiling they'll still be worse than 2011's by a significant margin. That's not an indictment of this year's unit, more a statement of how awesome that Mankins-Connolly-Waters interior was.

mgteich · Oct 17, 2014

Please list all the patriots who have ever contributed after spending their rookie year on IR.

Brady6 said:
Running back wise Tyler Gaffney and James White will factor into the 2015 plans.

mgteich · Oct 17, 2014

I want to understand your position. Is it your belief that none of Wendell, Fleming and Devey are capable of starting at OG in 2015?

We shall see how high a priority Belichick puts on the "need to overhaul both guard positions".

It seems that you have Cannon gone. I tend to agree.

Brady6 said:
The offense line needs and offseason overhaul at both guard positions. Wendell would be ideal as the top backup option for all 3 interior OL positions, and Cameron Fleming should slide into Cannon's role.

mgteich · Oct 17, 2014

BradyFTW! said:
And again, when evaluating the passing game you just can't overlook the OL. While I've seen encouraging signs from this one over the past three weeks, even if they make it to their absolute ceiling they'll still be worse than 2011's by a significant margin. That's not an indictment of this year's unit, more a statement of how awesome that Mankins-Connolly-Waters interior was.

You are correct.

I have ignored the OL.

I did indeed focus on the receivers (WR, TE and RB).

So, yes, the challenge going forward is to sign Vereen and to have an improving OL.

oldrover · Oct 17, 2014

I'd take the 2004 offense over this one, with clock killin' Corey Dillon.

Marinlik · Oct 17, 2014

mgteich said:
I want to understand your position. Is it your belief that none of Wendell, Fleming and Devey are capable of starting at OG in 2015?

We shall see how high a priority Belichick puts on the "need to overhaul both guard positions".

It seems that you have Cannon gone. I tend to agree.

At anywhere close to the level of Mankins or Waters in 2011(our best offense since 2007)? Absolutely not. I think our OL is in major need of revamping. Going at it early in the next draft. Preferably in the first round and then in the mid rounds(3rd/4th).

mgteich · Oct 17, 2014

I do not think that the injured Dobson needs to show a lot to be worth being paid under $800K as our #4 receiver. He has been injured and he has talent.

I do not think that Tyms needs to be star to be worth re-signing at the minimum amount needed to sign him in 2015. And yes, obviously he might be beaten out in camp and the preseason by Boyce or by 2015's flavor of the day. IMHO, Tyms has enough raw talent to be the #5 receiver.

For me, it is instructive to review just how few receptions we have gotten from our #4 and #5 WR's over the years. This is especially true when we have receiving TE's and RB's.
===========================
IMHO, the ONLY real issue with the wide receivers is whether Amendola CONTINUES to have the confidence of Brady, Josh and Belichick in his role of the #3 WR 9and slot back). I think that this is likely to happen.
===========================
Folks have quite rightly criticized me about the weakness of our OL, compared to times past. I agree.

However, I am fine with Gronkowksi, Edelman, LaFell, Amendola, Vereen, Wright, (Dobson or Tyms) as our SEVEN targets, with Hooman, Develin, (Dobson or Tyms) and White catching the occasional pass.

Brady6 said:
If Dobson does not turn around this season he could be facing a make or break offseason and training camp in 2015.

Tyms would have to show a lot more before extensions started coming into the discussion.
/QUOTE]

IMHO, if we keep Brady upright (at least as well as we did last night), the passing offense will be fine through 2016.

Deus Irae · Oct 17, 2014

This offense is currently on pace to score the fewest points since 2009. I don't expect that to continue, but come on. 2012-2012 were all better offenses than this one, and it's not even close.

IF Tyms, Wright and Dobson develop into something worth talking about, we can re-visit this. Until then, let's get back to reality.

manxman2601 · Oct 17, 2014

mgteich said:
However, I am fine with Gronkowksi, Edelman, LaFell, Amendola, Vereen, Wright, (Dobson or Tyms) as our SEVEN targets, with Hooman, Develin, (Dobson or Tyms) and White catching the occasional pass.

Agreed although I can see an additional receiver instead of Amendola or Dobson who I'm about ready to give up on, largely because I think he's becoming redundant thanks to the (potential) growth of LaFell and Wright. I would like to see a YAC demon on the team, Josh Boyce would have been perfect and also an additional inline TE that could be A factor in both the run and passing game. I like the potential for this passing offense.

mgteich · Oct 17, 2014

Deus Irae said:
This offense is currently on pace to score the fewest points since 2009. I don't expect that to continue, but come on. 2012-2012 were all better offenses than this one, and it's not even close.

IF Tyms, Wright and Dobson develop into something worth talking about, we can re-visit this. Until then, let's get back to reality.

I did start a discuss of 2014, 2015 and 2016. But yes, let's focus on the rest of 2014.

I agree that the 2014 stats will not match past years. This has been a slow start. But surely, both of us are more interested in the potency of the offense after the bye and in the post season.

You mentioned three positions where 2014 doesn't measure up: #4 WR, #5WR and #2 TE.

How much production did we get from those positions in 2012, the year that you mention?

TE
I do indeed expect more from Wright as the season progresses. However, I am fine with what Gronk and Wright are currently adding to the offense.

WR
I don't think that we need lots of production from our #4 and #5 receivers to match up with 2012 for the second half. I do think that we will need to see more from Amendola.

Deus Irae · Oct 17, 2014

mgteich said:
I did start a discuss of 2014, 2015 and 2016. But yes, let's focus on the rest of 2014.

I agree that the 2014 stats will not match past years. This has been a slow start. But surely, both of us are more interested in the potency of the offense after the bye and in the post season.

You mentioned three positions where 2014 doesn't measure up: #4 WR, #5WR and #2 TE.

How much production did we get from those positions in 2012, the year that you mention?

TE
I do indeed expect more from Wright as the season progresses. However, I am fine with what Gronk and Wright are currently adding to the offense.

WR
I don't think that we need lots of production from our #4 and #5 receivers to match up with 2012 for the second half. I do think that we will need to see more from Amendola.

There's a world of difference between "This offense is getting better" and "Best since 2007!". The first is obvious. The second is crazy talk.

And 2012 was Gronk, Hernandez, Welker, Lloyd, Branch, Edelman and Woodhead, with Ridley and Vereen both in year 2.

Fencer · Oct 17, 2014

mgteich said:
Please list all the patriots who have ever contributed after spending their rookie year on IR.

Benjamin Watson

That's all I've got for the moment.

mgteich · Oct 17, 2014

Fencer said:
Benjamin Watson

That's all I've got for the moment.

Yes, I tend to forget Watson since the discussion is almost always about late draft choices and UDFA's being part of our plans and being major contributors in the future.

Belichick will give early draft choices a couple of years, but that hasn't even worked out except for Watson.

I suppose we gave up too early on Tate.

In any case, I have a simplistic approach to rookies who spend their entire first year on the IR. I don't expect them to make the roster in the next year unless they were drafted in the first four rounds.

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