Jerod Mayo suffers knee injury

Wow horrible news. This is worse case scenario for Mayo and I cant see how the Patriots keep him at 10 millions next year. He's almost a sure fire lock for a release or trade if he does not heavily restructure.

BradyFTW! said:

Ouch, a patellar tendon injury is exactly what I was afraid of. Based on precedent from other players, there's a very good chance that this injury will be career-altering for Mayo, but at the same time he can afford to lose a bit of agility far more than someone like Victor Cruz (or Morris Claiborne) can. It'll be really interesting to see how he recovers, and I have faith that he'll make as close to a 100% recovery as a guy in his position can.

FWIW, if this sounds like a pessimistic take, I was significantly more pessimistic re: Wilfork's chances at coming back from his ruptured Achilles. And I think we may see a similar type of recovery from Mayo, where even if he's back next season without missing a beat, he almost certainly won't be his old self right away, will probably inspire a bunch of negative posts, but hopefully will get back to a reasonable facsimile of Jerod Mayo sooner rather than later.

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You called it on Tuesday so great job!

I disagree with the back to 100% part though. Its just not the same for patella injuries as it is with ACL's anymore.

Dang that is some BS

BradyManny said:

OK, good to have it cleared up. I hope it's not as bad as Jeff Howe makes it sound. What other players have torn their patellar?

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Just recently, Victor Cruz and Morris Claiborne. Jim Leonhard had one a few years ago, IIRC, and Cadillac Williams is maybe the most famous case (was, anyway. Victor Cruz has probably taken that dubious honor from him). Google searching also brought up Correll Buckhalter, Nate Allen, and Ryan Williams.

From that group, something like Nate Allen is probably the best case scenario, since he came back the next season and at something approaching pre-injury form. There aren't a lot of comps, though. The only relatively recent example for a LB that I can find is Clint Simtim, and he tore his ACL at the same time. That injury more or less signaled the end of his career, but from what I remember of Simtim he relied a lot more on explosiveness since he was a pass rushing 3-4 OLB.

For OLs. Davin Joseph ruptured his, and David DeCastro's was damaged when he blew out his knee a couple years ago. Joseph hasn't been the same since, but DeCastro has been pretty good.

All in all, I definitely don't think this is encouraging -- looks like more players made far less than 100% recoveries than those who made anything resembling it. But for now we can just hope that Mayo ends up more like Allen or DeCastro, as opposed to a Sintim/Joseph type outcome.

SeanBruschi54 said:

You called it on Tuesday so great job!

I disagree with the back to 100% part though. Its just not the same for patella injuries as it is with ACL's anymore.

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Don't get me wrong, I agree that just based on precedent a 100% recovery is unlikely. I just htink that even without a 100% recovery he can still be a useful starter-caliber linebacker. Jerod Mayo minus some agility and explosiveness is still a good football player.

I spoke to an ortho dr. I work with regarding this injury. She said realistically, full recovery to get back to playing shape is more like 10-12 months, not 6. Regardless, many players won't get back to 100% but usually get pretty close. It is worse for WR's and RB's since they rely on cuts and agility, etc.
^ I agree that even if Mayo is not 100% his old self, he is still a damn good player.

JackBauer said:

OK? Not sure where I claimed otherwise.

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I asked a trainer about patella injuries? Where'd you get that?

this blog talks about other nfl players who had the injury, of note - austin collie, jim leonhard

http://questionabletostart.com/comparing-cruzs-condition/

Too bad. Two years in a row spent in rehab.
Odd that the team has yet to place him on IR.

OK, let's look at our depth. I would add our long snapper to the 3 specialists. That gives us 6 additional roster spots. For this season, Belichick has allocated them equally. So let's see how the depth of the team works out
SPECIALISTS - 3

OFFENSE - 22
11 starters
11 backups

DEFENSE -22
11 starters
11 backups
============================
OFFENSE (your scheme works, even better if we count 12 starter including 2 RB's)
11 starters: 1 QB, 1 1/2 TE, 2 1/2 WR, 5 OL, 1 RB
10 backups: 1 QB, 1 1/2 TE, 2 1/2 WR, 4 OL, 1 RB
4 extras: 1 FB, 2 RB, 1 ST (Slater)
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DEFENSE
11 starters ( the base)
4 DB backups
3 DL backups
1 LB backup
extras: Ryan, Butler, Jones (S), Ebner, Davis, White

The bottom line should be that we have trouble having enough backups for the various sets, and make tradeoffs with the extras. That is NOT the case.

We play a 4 man base DL and have 3 backups, including a late round rookie now playing.
We play 3 LB in the base, and have one UDFA backup who is now a starter.

Many here pointed out the depth issue at DE and LB long before the season started. This is not a new issue. Belichick CHOSE to use the Practice Squad for backup LB's. Luckily, no one wanted Skinner.
Belichick CHOSE to keep 6 safeties instead of having addition depth at LB and DE.

And please note that I well understand the need for special teamers. Many of us suggested this set up before the season (your suggestion).
11 starters
11 backups
3 extras - 2 top STers (presumably Ebner and White) and a 5th CB.
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There is no question that we seriously sacrifice depth by having Butler, Jones and Davis on the roster.

chasa said:

pretty strong words.


You can't have unlimited depth at every position

11 offensive starters plus backups puts you at 22 players
11 defensive players plus backups puts you at 44 players
Kicker/Punter with no backup puts you at 46 players

That gives you 7 free roster spots to add depth where you need it from a list of 21 positions(Qb only needs the starter and the backup)

It's real easy to say its negligent roster management in hindsight, but all things considered If the team was to completely collapse because we lost one lb, there are more issues on the team then LB depth.

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AndyJohnson said:

Every team has injuries. Blaming the Patriots not winning a SB since 2004 on injuries is naive, uninformed and wrong.

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Debatable. 2013 was certainly a year where injuries played a direct role in the season ending in Denver. 2008 most assuredly. If Brady doesn't go down with that line and weapons, it was definitely another deep run in the playoffs. Brady's injury alone was worth three games, maybe more, and a first-round bye.

Gronkowski is a such a dominant player at his position that his health has played a direct role in playoff outcomes as well.

2007 was not one of those years. The Patriots cam within a couple of minutes and a miraculous play of winning that Super Bowl. That loss was more about getting beaten up front and excellent pass defense by the Giants.

It's a year-by-year thing for sure.

Patellar injuries are career threatening. Doubt Mayo is ever the same and at his price, its time to draft his replacement in case he can't get back to at least 90% of his old self and for insurance.

goheels22002 said:

Debatable. 2013 was certainly a year where injuries played a direct role in the season ending in Denver. 2008 most assuredly. If Brady doesn't go down with that line and weapons, it was definitely another deep run in the playoffs. Brady's injury alone was worth three games, maybe more, and a first-round bye.

Gronkowski is a such a dominant player at his position that his health has played a direct role in playoff outcomes as well.

2007 was not one of those years. The Patriots cam within a couple of minutes and a miraculous play of winning that Super Bowl. That loss was more about getting beaten up front and excellent pass defense by the Giants.

It's a year-by-year thing for sure.

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I generally agree with AJ on this issue. All teams have to deal with injuries. And there is a lot of luck associated with getting to the SB and winning it.

HOWEVER, there are sometimes individual players who are especially critical to the success of the team. IMHO, in our case, those players have been Brady and Gronk (and Moss). I believe that Gronk's health in the post-season has greatly diminished the chances of the patriots having won more SB's.

Best of luck to Mayo in his comeback from this.

mgteich said:

...All teams have to deal with injuries...

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Key players are what matters, (not necessarily the same as great players, but one often follows the other). An injury to your CB5 isn't likely to derail your season. An injury to your QB1 is likely to do just that. However, just to look at the offensive side of the ball for the Patriots:

Anyone is welcome to claim that injuries Brady (ankle 2007), Brady (ACL 2008), Welker (ACL 2009), Gronk (ankle 2011), Gronk (arm 2012) and Gronk (knee 2013) weren't critical blows to the team's SB (or, more likely in 2009, deeper playoff run's) chances. It will show that they don't know football, but they are welcome to make the claim.

Deus Irae said:

Key players are what matters, (not necessarily the same as great players, but one often follows the other). An injury to your CB5 isn't likely to derail your season. An injury to your QB1 is likely to do just that. However, just to look at the offensive side of the ball for the Patriots:

Anyone is welcome to claim that injuries Brady (ankle 2007), Brady (ACL 2008), Welker (ACL 2009), Gronk (ankle 2011), Gronk (arm 2012) and Gronk (knee 2013) weren't critical blows to the team's SB (or, more likely in 2009, deeper playoff run's) chances. It will show that they don't know football, but they are welcome to make the claim.

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I agree. Gronk's injuries over the past three years are especially bothersome.

So, absent these critical injuries, the patriots might likely have won another SB or 2 or 3. My conclusion is that the GM has put a SB team on the field in almost every year since 2003. Obviously, we came very close in 2006, and as you said, our weakest teams were in 2009 and 2010.

Deus Irae said:

Key players are what matters, (not necessarily the same as great players, but one often follows the other). An injury to your CB5 isn't likely to derail your season. An injury to your QB1 is likely to do just that. However, just to look at the offensive side of the ball for the Patriots:

Anyone is welcome to claim that injuries Brady (ankle 2007), Brady (ACL 2008), Welker (ACL 2009), Gronk (ankle 2011), Gronk (arm 2012) and Gronk (knee 2013) weren't critical blows to the team's SB (or, more likely in 2009, deeper playoff run's) chances. It will show that they don't know football, but they are welcome to make the claim.

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Agreed, and that's not even accounting for the injuries to Jones and Talib (2012) and Wilfork/Kelly/Mayo/Talib (2013).

Efstratios said:

Agreed, and that's not even accounting for the injuries to Jones and Talib (2012) and Wilfork/Kelly/Mayo/Talib (2013).

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I agree with AJ that we should be able to deal with injuries, even as serious as the ones you list. However, I also agree with DI that injuries to players like Brady, Welker and Gronk are much more difficult to deal with, and are often the difference between winning and losing, even on teams that are otherwise playing very well.

AndyJohnson said:

Every team has injuries. Blaming the Patriots not winning a SB since 2004 on injuries is naive, uninformed and wrong.

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At the same time, to say injuries had nothing to do with it would be a mistake. Gronk not being himself in SB46 was a huge factor in that game. I wouldn't hesitate to say we win that title with a healthy 87, and I don't think many would.

Talib getting taken out of the AFCCG two years in a row were game changers, as well.

Efstratios said:

Agreed, and that's not even accounting for the injuries to Jones and Talib (2012) and Wilfork/Kelly/Mayo/Talib (2013).

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Absolutely. The idea that the injuries don't matter, or that no injury can undermine a season, is laughable. Patriots fans should know that as well as anyone.