Idle thoughts: the bittersweet edition

Ivan said:

They need to go 2-1 the next 3 weeks and then go on a run down the homestretch, which has always been their MO in the past. If so i think we are looking at 11-5 and they will just have to go on the road and show they can win elsewhere in the play-offs. I don't think this is going to be a top seed team and imo even a bye is going to be a longshot this year, instead they will have to do it the hard way and go on a roll in the play-offs, but if they can still be a top 5 defense without Mayo then that is a real possibility.

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I'm not thinking much about the record or a bye right now. It's too early. I think the bye has been overrated, and that the formula for success in the NFL favors the mentally tough teams that have to fight their way in to the tournament over those that coast. I do agree that I'd like to see 2-1 or better over the next 3 games, putting the team at either 6-3 or 7-2 with 7 games to play (4 on the road).

The homestretch:

@Indy (Sunday night)
Detroit
@Green Bay
@San Diego (Sunday night)
Miami
@Jets
Buffalo

After this week's Thursday night game against the Jets, the Pats will have just 2 games in a 30 day period (between October 16 and November 16).

All I really care about between now and November 16 is (1) 2+ wins, (2) continued mental toughness, and (3) no more major injuries.

I wonder if Bill thinks that this team is "playing"????

Rob0729 said:

Several things:

• The Pats have a huge advantage in Thursday's game. Odds are the Jets will travel on Wednesday. That means they have two days to prepare while the Pats have three. That is probably the biggest reason why most of these Thursday night games are blowouts with the home team usually coming up on the winning side.
• The big catch by Watkins right next to the end zone, Revis was playing off man and was back pedaling off the line rather than playing press man. He isn't nearly as effective when he does that.
• Coach Gooch was unfairly maligned because of a rumor and the fact the o-line was in flux early (not to mention having to replace Scarnnechia). He seems to be a far more competent coach than people gave him credit for.

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I could be wrong but on that catch by Watkins near the goal line I dont think it was the scheme, I think that Revis felt that Orton was never going to throw it his way on that play.

mayoclinic said:

The Pats are 4-2 and securely atop the AFC East.

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Not really. The Bills aren't going away any time soon. Their next two games are against the Vikings and the Jets. Then they get the Chiefs at home who look like losers any place but home. Then the Doophins, Jets and Browns. The Bills could win all of those games. The Patriots need to stay sharp and have better luck with injuries.

goheels22002 said:

Not really. The Bills aren't going away any time soon. Their next two games are against the Vikings and the Jets. Then they get the Chiefs at home who look like losers any place but home. Then the Doophins, Jets and Browns. The Bills could win all of those games. The Patriots need to stay sharp and have better luck with injuries.

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Obviously the division isn't a lock after 6 games. But by "securely" I mean:

1 1/2 games ahead of Buffalo (4-2 vs. 3-2 with a win)
2 games ahead of Miami (4-2 vs. 2-3 with a loss)
3 games ahead of the Jets (4-2 vs. 1-5)

Anything more than a full game is "secure" for at least another week. The Pats will still be atop the AFC East after week 7, and if they win on Thursday they'll be 2-1 against the division at the halfway point with 2 home games remaining in the last 3, and the only road game against the Jets, who will be effectively out of it.

That's enough for me at the 6 game mark.

I love reading your post Ken and agree with what you have to say most if not all the time. As far as the O-line is concerned i thought there were times TB should have been pulled for his own safety the o-line looked like a sieve during a good deal of the game. After Mayo went down the team rallied and the line played very well, before that not so much. And the line had reason not to with losing Stork and Wendell going back to center. I would agree with your assessment after last weeks game, but not this one.

LaFell, Tyms, Wright.......4 TDs........Not your 2013 NE pass catchers........Not even close.
I can't help but compare LaFell's skill set to Brandon Lloyd's output as a Patriot. Both considered an outside the hashmarks WR option, LaFell looks to make plays with the ball in hand while Lloyd preferred a catch and fall style. It took two years, but BB appears to have upgraded this position.
Effective slot guy, effective pass catching TE, effective outside WR.......it's been a while....and I like it. Even better, NINE players caught passes......that's 2001-2004 tactics....and I love that!!
What I like most about the passing game the last two games is Brady is looking for moving targets, not receivers setting up in space. This should open up the field even more. The station to station/move the chains passing game was getting tired and many D's had figured it out. NOW...this is how a passing game is meant to be......and I love it

borg said:

LaFell, Tyms, Wright.......4 TDs........Not your 2013 NE pass catchers........Not even close.
I can't help but compare LaFell's skill set to Brandon Lloyd's output as a Patriot. Both considered an outside the hashmarks WR option, LaFell looks to make plays with the ball in hand while Lloyd preferred a catch and fall style. It took two years, but BB appears to have upgraded this position.
Effective slot guy, effective pass catching TE, effective outside WR.......it's been a while....and I like it. Even better, NINE players caught passes......that's 2001-2004 tactics....and I love that!!
What I like most about the passing game the last two games is Brady is looking for moving targets, not receivers setting up in space. This should open up the field even more. The station to station/move the chains passing game was getting tired and many D's had figured it out. NOW...this is how a passing game is meant to be......and I love it

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That comment on the the fact our passing attack looks like its grown from the dink and dunk phase is an important one. I remember posting back in TC that they looked like they were emphasizing the downfield game more, but this is the first game where they seemed to put it into effect.

Someone mentioned it earlier, but deserves repeating. The NFLPA has legislated that September has become just an extension of pre-season. There are HS teams who get more padded practices before their season's start than the NFL. Given that teams change over 20% of their rosters every year, teams clearly need more practice time. Well they aren't going to get it, so, we as far we fans are concerned, we get sub par football for about the first month of the season.

Don't give up on Aaron Dobson. I certainly hope he isn't giving up on himself. I predict he will be a key WR before this season is over. Up to now his season has been a suck-fest. Injuries, the lack of reps, and mental errors have made it a real mess. But I love the talent and what he accomplished last season before he got hurt. With all the depth we have a WR now, we have the luxury to be patient with him. I'm sure the coaches feel this way, I'd like to think the fans can come around as well.

Bottom line: The OL is still the main concern even though they've played relatively well the last 2 games under some difficult circumstances. If we can get that situation under control, we can look forward to a very successful regular season.

With Stork out my heart sank with the in game OL injury. But I was pleasantly surprised.
Add me as always to the list of those critical of TFB for not using ALL his potential receivers as he did in the Dynasty years where complete no-names were targets of opportunity. I swear that the Moss-Welker era caused Tom to develop the bad habit of mostly waiting for his primes to be open.

Just one more thing. I could be wrong, but doesn't it seem like sacks are way up this season all across the league. IRRC, it used to be that if you got 3 sacks in a game, you had a good game rushing the passer. Anecdotally, it seems to me that a lot of teams are getting 5 or 6 sacks on a regular basis.

I'd appreciate if someone found the actual stats, because if its true, it would be interesting to try and figure out why its happening.

Sacks are actually way down this year across the league.

http://forums.colts.com/topic/31616-qb-sacks-way-down-through-first-quarter-of-season/

patfanken said:

Just one more thing. I could be wrong, but doesn't it seem like sacks are way up this season all across the league. IRRC, it used to be that if you got 3 sacks in a game, you had a good game rushing the passer. Anecdotally, it seems to me that a lot of teams are getting 5 or 6 sacks on a regular basis.

I'd appreciate if someone found the actual stats, because if its true, it would be interesting to try and figure out why its happening.

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In 2013, the league average for sacks per game was 2.53. So far this year there have been 380 sacks and 180 games played (adjusted for bye weeks) for an average of 2.11 sacks per game.

Another good number is the sack percentage (sacks per passing attempt) which looks to be down from an average of 6.67 in 2013 to an average of 5.50 in 2014 thus far in the season.

2014:
http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/sack-percentage/2014/
2013:
http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/sack-percentage/2013/

patfanken said:

That comment on the the fact our passing attack looks like its grown from the dink and dunk phase is an important one. I remember posting back in TC that they looked like they were emphasizing the downfield game more, but this is the first game where they seemed to put it into effect.

.

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I saw it vs Cincy...Gronk and Wright were running posts down the middle instead of stop turn catch. Baby steps

mayoclinic said:

I'm not thinking much about the record or a bye right now. It's too early. I think the bye has been overrated, and that the formula for success in the NFL favors the mentally tough teams that have to fight their way in to the tournament over those that coast. I do agree that I'd like to see 2-1 or better over the next 3 games, putting the team at either 6-3 or 7-2 with 7 games to play (4 on the road).

The homestretch:

@Indy (Sunday night)
Detroit
@Green Bay
@San Diego (Sunday night)
Miami
@Jets
Buffalo

After this week's Thursday night game against the Jets, the Pats will have just 2 games in a 30 day period (between October 16 and November 16).

All I really care about between now and November 16 is (1) 2+ wins, (2) continued mental toughness, and (3) no more major injuries.

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That is a rough stretch. Interesting that the season ends with three divisional games.

It just hit me yesterday looking at the schedule that the Pats have three Sunday night games this year (as do Dallas, Denver, Green Bay, San Fran and Seattle with Dallas, Green Bay, NE and Seattle having to play two of them on the road).

The Brandon Five said:

That is a rough stretch. Interesting that the season ends with three divisional games.

It just hit me yesterday looking at the schedule that the Pats have three Sunday night games this year (as do Dallas, Denver, Green Bay, San Fran and Seattle with Dallas, Green Bay, NE and Seattle having to play two of them on the road).

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The Pats play a 5 game stretch of Denver - @Indy - Detroit - @GB - @SD. That's a 5 game stretch with 3 on the road against teams that are currently 21-8. That will be an interesting stretch to watch.

Seacoast Fan said:

I could be wrong but on that catch by Watkins near the goal line I dont think it was the scheme, I think that Revis felt that Orton was never going to throw it his way on that play.

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I agree but not because I think Revis doubted Orton would try him. I think that Revis was not expecting Orton to have the kind of time he had on that particular play. There were a handful of plays where Orton had time, but that play was ridiculous. He really had all day on that one. Also, Zo said that Revis was in zone on the play. He normally watches games more than once before going on the air.

BelizePats said:

Sacks are actually way down this year across the league.

http://forums.colts.com/topic/31616-qb-sacks-way-down-through-first-quarter-of-season/

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Thanks, I guess that's why "anecdotal " observations need the back up of actual facts.

BelizePats said:

Sacks are actually way down this year across the league.

http://forums.colts.com/topic/31616-qb-sacks-way-down-through-first-quarter-of-season/

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They're also overrated somewhat. In today's game, it's enough just to apply consistent pressure. The Pats had five sacks yesterday and still there were more than a handful of plays where Orton had forever to throw. He threw for almost 300 yesterday.

The Pats aren't going to get many sacks against Manning and Rodgers. We have to make those guys move around and be uncomfortable, though. There are ways to do that without always getting sacks necessarily. I look at a guy like Chris Jones who can pressure up the middle. Easley is also supposed to be an asset here, but he has not been to this point. Actually, I feel we haven't seen his trademark quickness all season.

Palm Beach Pats Fan said:

Buffalo newspaper today:

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Someone needs to send a note to their editor explaining to them that Denial isn't just a river in Egypt.

BelizePats said:

Sacks are actually way down this year across the league.

http://forums.colts.com/topic/31616-qb-sacks-way-down-through-first-quarter-of-season/

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The pats are still on course to register 40 sacks