Brady's Contract

hwc · Oct 6, 2014

Barnwell is wrong in that article, as Miguel has explained here.

The final three years of salary become guaranteed at the end of this year. That part is true. It is true that the salary would have to be paid and counted against the Pats cap if they released Brady. However, it's salary. If they trade Brady at any time, the remaining salary goes to the new club. It would be guaranteed, but guaranteed and paid by the new club. It would NOT count against the Pats cap. It would count against the new club's cap.

So, if they Pats decided to move on, all they have to do is trade Brady instead of release him -- which is what they would want to do anyway.

His contract is actually very, very attractive for the three years. Those salary numbers are very low for a QB HOF quarterback. Low enough to be very attractive to a trade partner. Very attractive to the Pats if Brady continues to play here. And, even within the realm of possibility should he become a backup.

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Of course, the remaining salary is not paid should Brady decide, at some point. to retire -- which I see, realistically, as the most likely scenario.

BelichickFan · Oct 6, 2014

Miguel tweeted about this yesterday. If Brady were traded after 6/1/15 the Patriots would save money against the cap in both 2015 and 2016. Yes there would be $18M combined of dead money but that is lower than the current cap hit each season. So while the dead money looks daunting it actually saves against the cap.

[email protected] ‏@patscap Oct 5
As of now his 2016 cap hit is scheduled to be $14 million, therefore a post 6/1/15 trade creates cap Space in both 2015+2016

convertedpatsfan · Oct 6, 2014

hwc said:
Barnwell is wrong in that article, as Miguel has explained here.

The final three years of salary become guaranteed at the end of this year. That part is true. It is true that the salary would have to be paid and counted against the Pats cap if they released Brady. However, it's salary. If they trade Brady at any time, the remaining salary goes to the new club. It would be guaranteed, but guaranteed and paid by the new club. It would NOT count against the Pats cap. It would count against the new club's cap.

So, if they Pats decided to move on, all they have to do is trade Brady instead of release him -- which is what they would want to do anyway.

His contract is actually very, very attractive for the three years. Those salary numbers are very low for a QB HOF quarterback. Low enough to be very attractive to a trade partner. Very attractive to the Pats if Brady continues to play here. And, even within the realm of possibility should he become a backup.

-------------

Of course, the remaining salary is not paid should Brady decide, at some point. to retire -- which I see, realistically, as the most likely scenario.

Maybe I'm reading it wrong, but I saw this post:

https://twitter.com/patscap/status/518794820123643904

It looks (to me) like there is dead cap money in the event of a trade.

Perhaps if Miguel is around, he can clarify since I am feeling very brain-dead right now?

convertedpatsfan · Oct 6, 2014

BelichickFan said:
Miguel tweeted about this yesterday. If Brady were traded after 6/1/15 the Patriots would save money against the cap in both 2015 and 2016. Yes there would be $18M combined of dead money but that is lower than the current cap hit each season. So while the dead money looks daunting it actually saves against the cap.

[email protected] ‏@patscap Oct 5
As of now his 2016 cap hit is scheduled to be $14 million, therefore a post 6/1/15 trade creates cap Space in both 2015+2016

Thanks, that makes a lot of sense. Although hopefully Brady continues to play at a high level for the next few years and makes this all moot.

BelichickFan · Oct 6, 2014

convertedpatsfan said:
Thanks, that makes a lot of sense. Although hopefully Brady continues to play at a high level for the next few years and makes this all moot.

Yeah, it's confusing but the $6M and $12M dead money hits are less than the hit if he's here.

2015 the dead money is $6M but the cap hit if here is $13M
2016 the dead money is $12M but the cap hit if here is $14M.

So despite an $18M dead money his they would save $7M and $2M in 2015 and 2016 respectively. Miguel can correct those numbers if they're off but as I copy and pasted his tweet, we would definitely save money each year if traded after 6/2/15.

They could also trade him after this year, before 6/2/15 and get the same savings but take the entire $18M hit in 2015 and have it off the books in 2016.

Miguel · Oct 6, 2014

Here's hoping that a picture helps.
Bottom line - There is never a time in which cutting Brady saves cap space.
Trading Brady after 6/1/2015 is when the Patriots can save cap space.

BelichickFan · Oct 6, 2014

Miguel said:
Trading Brady after 6/1/2015 is when the Patriots can save cap space.

Miguel, am I correct saying the combined cap hit on the trade would be the same total before/after 6/1/15 but before the $18M would be all in 2015 and zero in 2016 whereas the $18M would be $6M and $12M respectively but the trade after this season is $18M hit regardless, just whether it's immediate or spread over two years ?

Miguel · Oct 6, 2014

BelichickFan said:
Miguel, am I correct saying the combined cap hit on the trade would be the same total before/after 6/1/15 but before the $18M would be all in 2015 and zero in 2016 whereas the $18M would be $6M and $12M respectively but the trade after this season is $18M hit regardless, just whether it's immediate or spread over two years ?

Yes. I guess that a picture does not say 1,000 words after all

BelichickFan · Oct 6, 2014

Miguel said:
Yes. I guess that a picture does not say 1,000 words after all

It does but the cap is so complicated to me that whenever I think I've got it right I really don't.

convertedpatsfan · Oct 6, 2014

Miguel said:
Here's hoping that a picture helps.
Bottom line - There is never a time in which cutting Brady saves cap space.
Trading Brady after 6/1/2015 is when the Patriots can save cap space.

Thanks Miguel as always.

I'm probably not reading this correctly but in hwc's post, he mentioned the trading team would take on the salary. But the dead money is bonus, correct? So did Barnwell interpret this part correctly or not (3 years, $24M, while Pats take on the dead money for the bonus)?

Miguel · Oct 6, 2014

Some numbers in the last table in Barnwell's piece are wrong

"The following table includes how much Brady would cost the Patriots the next three seasons, based on how and when they could get rid of Brady. The release scenarios are assuming Brady is released as a post–June 1 cut; if not, the financial splits are the same as if he were traded. The years Brady would play for the team (as opposed to representing dead money) are bolded."

It should be

YearTraded, 2015 OffseasonCut, 2015 OffseasonTraded, 2016 OffseasonCut, 2016 Offseason
2015$18,000,000$30,000,000$13,000,000$13,000,000
2016$0$12,000,000$12,000,000$23,000,000
2017$0$0$0$6,000,000

Yes, Brady's new team would take on the salaries in a trade. Patriots are responsible for his signing bonus (cut or trade).

hwc · Oct 6, 2014

The $18 million in unamortized signing bonus hits the Pats' cap no matter what. $18 million hits the cap (sooner or later) if he stays and plays, if he is traded (whenever), or if he is cut.

The issue is the $24 million in salary for 2015 - 2017. That becomes fully guaranteed at the end of this year. It would hit the Pats cap immediately if they release him. It would transfer to the new team if they trade him. It wouldn't be paid and wouldn't hit anybody's cap if he retires. If he plays, it hits the Pats cap, year by year.

The best scenario for the Pats is having Brady play for another year or two, healthy, and at a high level of performance.

The worse scenario (for all intents and purposes, not an option) would be to release him.

Trade or retirement are manageable from a cap standpoint, but better the further he goes: after 2016 would be better than after 2015 and 2015 would be better than after 2014.

Gwedd · Oct 6, 2014

If I am looking at the numbers correctly, then trading Mankins to Tampa Bay was also a very good move, because we got Tim Wright and his contract which is less than what we would've paid for Mankins.

I'm really starting to like the Mankins trade, especially after Sunday night's performance by Wright.

hwc · Oct 7, 2014

Gwedd said:
If I am looking at the numbers correctly, then trading Mankins to Tampa Bay was also a very good move, because we got Tim Wright and his contract which is less than what we would've paid for Mankins.

I'm really starting to like the Mankins trade, especially after Sunday night's performance by Wright.

All of the front office types on Sirius radio (Polian, Kirwin, etc.) applauded the Mankins trade. His contract was not sustainable. The Pats had to cut him between now and the start of next year. To get something for him (a player at a position of need AND a draft pick) was a sweet deal. Polian said they got more than the GM "handbook" would have suggested -- and Polian didn't care about Wright at all, just the draft pick was a good haul. Kirwin was more interested in Wright and how he could open up the Pats hurry up offense again.

ctpatsfan77 · Oct 7, 2014

I think this version of Miguel's table might help the more visual folks see what's going on.

Green numbers represent money paid to Brady while he's still on the team. Red numbers represent signing bonus only. Purple numbers represent signing bonus + salary.

hwc · Oct 7, 2014

^^^
I don't think that's the best way to look at it. The $18 million in signing bonus is water under the bridge. It's already been paid, It's already an inescapable cap hit, sooner or later -- spread out over three years, two years, or one year depending on how long Brady is here.

It really doesn't impact calculations of Brady's worth to the team going forward. It's the "new money" -- the $24 million in salary that has to be weighed against Brady's performance. As long as Brady is contributing to a winning team (or at least not holding the team back from winning), those numbers are VERY attractive. You could not go out and sign a legitimate NFL starter in the free agency market for three years @ $24 million in new money. It's not that Brady took a discount; it's just that he got his money up front in signing bonus.

Brady_to_Moss · Oct 7, 2014

PATS16N0 said:
Brady is in his own class. He's above Belichick being able to just ship him off somewhere. Well above.

The decision will ultimately end up in Krafts hands. If he wants him till end..we have him till end. If he wants jimmy g...we get brady shipped off

PATS16N0 · Oct 7, 2014

Brady_to_Moss said:
The decision will ultimately end up in Krafts hands. If he wants him till end..we have him till end. If he wants jimmy g...we get brady shipped off

No team is going to give the Patriots anything the Patriots would be willing to accept. just to have Tom Brady retire five minutes after its announced. Tom isn't getting `shipped off` by anyone, Kraft included. He isn't like the other players and need to suck it up for the last five or six million dollars of their career. Tom and Gisele are worth like a half billion dollars. He'll tell Kraft to GTH

If some day the Patriots have to move past Brady while Brady still wants to play, he'll have a heavy influence on where he goes, and it won't be anywhere that he can't compete for a Superbowl ring.

Guts · Oct 7, 2014

Why the **** we even talking about this Brady is the best quarterback in the league at his age patience and the offense will take off as long as the OLINE improves

PATS16N0 · Oct 7, 2014

ArchAngel007 said:
Why the **** we even talking about this Brady is the best quarterback in the league at his age patience and the offense will take off as long as the OLINE improves

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