My reponse to people who think Brady is in decline.

BradyToAmendola said:

I saw that Kirk Minihane (and not just him, many others over the past week have said the same thing) wrote an article saying to basically "Look at Brady's stats since 2010, especially the passer rating, and see how it goes down every year."

These are the stats and years Minihane lists to show Brady's drop in numbers year by year.

Passer rating
2010: 111.0
2011: 105.6
2012: 98.7
2013: 87.3
2014: 79.1

completion percentage
2010: 65.9
2011: 65.5
2012: 63.0
2013: 60.5
2014: 59.1

Yards per attempt
2011: 8.6
2012: 7.6
2013: 6.9
2014: 5.8

Touchdown passes
2011: 39
2012: 34
2013: 25
2014: On pace for 16

Passing yards
2011: 5,235
2012: 4,827
2013: 4,343
2014: 3,164

Surely the reason these numbers are going down is because Brady is getting older each year, right?

Wrong. Extend the time table --- to 2006.

Passer rating
2006: 87.9 - 29 years old
2007: 117.2
2009: 96.2
2010: 111.0
2011: 105.6
2012: 98.7
2013: 87.3
2014: 79.1

Huh... that's weird. Tom Brady was 29 in 2006, surely not at the point where age should be hindering his play, and yet his passer rating is a feeble 87.9? That's the exact same as 2013 when he was 36 years old! We're only 4 games through this season, so it's safe to assume Brady's passer rating will probably finish right at 87 or so by the end of the year. It's certainly too soon to say it will flatten out at this 79.1 mark, there's just way too much football left.

Just for fun though, I decided to find out Brady's passer rating in 2006 through 4 games so we could get a more apples to apples comparison between 2006 and 2014.

Brady's passer rating in 2006 at age 29 through 4 games... was *80.7. Almost identical to what it is in 2014 at age 37.

So please, enlighten me. How is Brady "in decline" if he is putting up the exact numbers now as he did when he was 29? Was he also in decline at age 29? That seems a tad young to already be in decline.

Perhaps there is some other correlation we can make, because age appears to not make a difference --- after all, he is performing the exact same at age 37 as he did at age 29.

If you'll recall, in 2006 Brady had perhaps the worst support cast since.. well, now. Reche Caldwell, Ben Watson, Troy Brown, Kevin Faulk, Doug Gabriel, Laurence Maroney.
Pretty similar to the current supporting cast of Edelman, Gronk, Vereen, Dobson, LaFell, and the worst offensive line in the NFL at 55 pressures.

So the point of the thread is this: Brady is not declining; age is not the reason for the low passer rating this season. So please stop repeating that same bull$**** notion just because the media is saying it. Correlation =/= causation. The reason for the drop in numbers is because of lack of support at WR, TE, RB, and OL.

I do NOT want this to turn into a debate about if the front office is helping him out enough, that was NOT the point of this thread. This was only meant to address the "Tom Brady is too old!" people.

*Formula to find out Brady's passer rating through first 4 games of 2006:
Completions: 72
Attempts: 133
Yds: 891
TDs: 6
INTs: 3
a=(comp/att - .3) x 5 = 1.206
b=(yds/att - 3) x .25 = .9248
c=(td/att) x 20 =.9022
d=2.375 - (int/att) =1.811
(a+b+c+d) / 6= .807
.807 x 100= 80.7

Some more stats to compare 2006 to 2014:
2014:
Passer rating: 79.1
Yds: 791
Y/A: 5.77
Completion %: 59%
Interceptions: 2

2006:
Passer rating: 80.7
Yds: 891
Y/A: 6.69
Completion %: 54%
Interceptions: 3

Click to expand...

LaidOut said:

These threads are so cute to read.

In a single breath people will say "Brady is better than Manning because he's always been given crap weapons and found ways to do great things with them" and then say "You can't blame Brady for any of this!!! Look at his weapons!!!"

Click to expand...

LaidOut said:

It can't be both folks. If a major component of Tom Brady's greatness is that he's always been able to win with crap weapons, but now with these crap weapons, he's no longer able to, then by definition that'd be a decline.

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LaidOut said:

Nope, sorry. This is not rocket science Deus.

If the narrative in New England is that part of Brady's dominance (particularly over Manning) has always been that he's been able to take whatever he was given and still make it work, then there are only two possible explanations. Either he COULD do that and can't do that anymore, representing a decline, or he never really could and in fact those wins where he "did more with less" were the result of entire team contributions and not Brady putting a team of scrubs on his shoulders to save the day.

But please feel free to twist in the wind trying to explain it to me why the narrative of "Brady can take weak weapons and still win" and "Brady can't win right now because he has weak weapons" can possibly jive.

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BradyToAmendola said:

2013: 87.3
2014: 79.1

Huh... that's weird. Tom Brady was 29 in 2006, surely not at the point where age should be hindering his play, and yet his passer rating is a feeble 87.9? That's the exact same as 2013 when he was 36 years old! We're only 4 games through this season, so it's safe to assume Brady's passer rating will probably finish right at 87 or so by the end of the year. It's certainly too soon to say it will flatten out at this 79.1 mark, there's just way too much football left.

Just for fun though, I decided to find out Brady's passer rating in 2006 through 4 games so we could get a more apples to apples comparison between 2006 and 2014.

Brady's passer rating in 2006 at age 29 through 4 games... was *80.7. Almost identical to what it is in 2014 at age 37.

So please, enlighten me. How is Brady "in decline" if he is putting up the exact numbers now as he did when he was 29? Was he also in decline at age 29? That seems a tad young to already be in decline.

Perhaps there is some other correlation we can make, because age appears to not make a difference --- after all, he is performing the exact same at age 37 as he did at age 29.

If you'll recall, in 2006 Brady had perhaps the worst support cast since.. well, now. Reche Caldwell, Ben Watson, Troy Brown, Kevin Faulk, Doug Gabriel, Laurence Maroney.
Pretty similar to the current supporting cast of Edelman, Gronk, Vereen, Dobson, LaFell, and the worst offensive line in the NFL at 55 pressures.

So the point of the thread is this: Brady is not declining; age is not the reason for the low passer rating this season. So please stop repeating that same bull$**** notion just because the media is saying it. Correlation =/= causation. The reason for the drop in numbers is because of lack of support at WR, TE, RB, and OL.

I do NOT want this to turn into a debate about if the front office is helping him out enough, that was NOT the point of this thread. This was only meant to address the "Tom Brady is too old!" people.

*Formula to find out Brady's passer rating through first 4 games of 2006:
Completions: 72
Attempts: 133
Yds: 891
TDs: 6
INTs: 3
a=(comp/att - .3) x 5 = 1.206
b=(yds/att - 3) x .25 = .9248
c=(td/att) x 20 =.9022
d=2.375 - (int/att) =1.811
(a+b+c+d) / 6= .807
.807 x 100= 80.7

Some more stats to compare 2006 to 2014:
2014:
Passer rating: 79.1
Yds: 791
Y/A: 5.77
Completion %: 59%
Interceptions: 2

2006:
Passer rating: 80.7
Yds: 891
Y/A: 6.69
Completion %: 54%
Interceptions: 3

Click to expand...

Tunescribe said:

Peyton Manning also is in "decline," but nobody's kvetching over it because of the bountiful support he has from talented players around him.

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LaidOut said:

These threads are so cute to read.

In a single breath people will say "Brady is better than Manning because he's always been given crap weapons and found ways to do great things with them" and then say "You can't blame Brady for any of this!!! Look at his weapons!!!"

It can't be both folks. If a major component of Tom Brady's greatness is that he's always been able to win with crap weapons, but now with these crap weapons, he's no longer able to, then by definition that'd be a decline.

Or, Brady hasn't declined, in which case you can't give him credit for "doing more with less" his entire career.

Such a silly bunch.

Oh, and not to mention that when Manning is discussed, he's always discredited because the job he did was with these superb weapons you always speak of, but then in the same breath Brady is always given full credit for the job he did during the time he had an absolutely superb set of weapons around him. Funny how that works too!

Tom Brady is a great QB folks. Maybe the greatest ever, maybe not. That debate will never be settled outside of New England. But the lengths you folks will reach to and the contortions you'll bend yourself into in order to elevate him to God status over all other QBs and to defend him is absolutely hilarious!

The rest of the league watches on with great enjoyment as you guys tear yourselves into what seems like two pretty distinct groups; where people either believe maybe the greatest QB ever is washed up and done and one where people will throw themselves off cliffs to deny he's declining at 37.

The number of you who are able to see things more moderately is staggeringly low.

And folks, just because Manning is breaking records and playing at his best in his late 30s doesn't automatically mean Brady has to or he's "washed up". Peyton would trade last years 55 TDs for one of Tom's rings faster than Papa John's comes back up.

But of course Manning's elevated play is merely a product of his weapons and has absolutely nothing to do with him so that's a moot point anyways.

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Canuck said:

Here is my response to those declining Brady stats:

2011 Div Champs, Conference Champs, Super Bowl loss
2012 Div Champs, Conference loss
2013 Div Champs, Conference loss
2014 To be determined

Made it to the Conference Finals and 1 Super Bowl during those so called declining years. Personally, I thought last year was one of his greatest ever. With a decimated defense and stripped of offensive weapons, he stilled willed the team to victory and the Conference finals.

Click to expand...

LaidOut said:

These threads are so cute to read.

In a single breath people will say "Brady is better than Manning because he's always been given crap weapons and found ways to do great things with them" and then say "You can't blame Brady for any of this!!! Look at his weapons!!!"

It can't be both folks. If a major component of Tom Brady's greatness is that he's always been able to win with crap weapons, but now with these crap weapons, he's no longer able to, then by definition that'd be a decline.

Or, Brady hasn't declined, in which case you can't give him credit for "doing more with less" his entire career.

Such a silly bunch.

Oh, and not to mention that when Manning is discussed, he's always discredited because the job he did was with these superb weapons you always speak of, but then in the same breath Brady is always given full credit for the job he did during the time he had an absolutely superb set of weapons around him. Funny how that works too!

Tom Brady is a great QB folks. Maybe the greatest ever, maybe not. That debate will never be settled outside of New England. But the lengths you folks will reach to and the contortions you'll bend yourself into in order to elevate him to God status over all other QBs and to defend him is absolutely hilarious!

The rest of the league watches on with great enjoyment as you guys tear yourselves into what seems like two pretty distinct groups; where people either believe maybe the greatest QB ever is washed up and done and one where people will throw themselves off cliffs to deny he's declining at 37.

The number of you who are able to see things more moderately is staggeringly low.

And folks, just because Manning is breaking records and playing at his best in his late 30s doesn't automatically mean Brady has to or he's "washed up". Peyton would trade last years 55 TDs for one of Tom's rings faster than Papa John's comes back up.

But of course Manning's elevated play is merely a product of his weapons and has absolutely nothing to do with him so that's a moot point anyways.

Click to expand...

Nikolai said:

Well, his Fantasy Football career is in decline.

In truth, though, there is no way you can truly diagnose any level of decline when you have a far larger variable factoring into his performance this year; the unprecedented extremely poor performance of key players around him. Bring the OL up to even just the league average performance and then, perhaps, you might have something to work off of for an assessment of Brady's acumen.

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