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Cap-Sized Thoughts (1st quarter edition)


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Miguel

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1.) Siliga's injury means more playing-time for Wilfork which should help him reach his highest PT incentive of 70%. Currently at 72%.
2.) Still waiting on the NFLPA's numbers at http://www.nflplayers.com/cap to reflect the expiration of the Top 51 rule.
3.) Ryan Wendell has missed out on two $12,500 46-man roster bonuses by being deactivated for two games this season.
4.) Starting this week the Patriots will lose $87,500 in cap space for each and every game that Vince Wilfork is on the 46-man active roster.
5.) As each week goes by, any cap savings from any extensions lessens as players get paid for each week.
6.) Today I listened to Jonathan Kraft's interview with Gary Tangauy and Andy Gresh. Jonathan reported that the Patriots have about $11.4 million in cap space. He claimed that the Patriots roll over 8 million of cap space from last year to this year. I have been using the carryover number of $4,106,801 as found at http://www.nflplayers.com/cap since the spring. My cap space numbers have been spot on for most of the spring and summer.

7.) Jonathan mentioned the need to account for incentives was one major reason for the Patriots having so much cap space. I talked about incentives in great detail in this blog post
http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/?p=766

8.) Last year the cap was $123 million. Patriots spent in cash about $129,656,000 or about 105%.
http://espn.go.com/boston/nfl/story/_/id/10586646/new-england-patriots-spent-free-agents-not-wisely
This year the cap is $133 million. According to my numbers the Patriots have spent about 95 million in 2014. They may spend another 6 to 8 million depending on how many NTLBE incentives are reached. 95 million is 71% of $133 million. The total cap amount for the 2013 and 2014 years is $256,000,000. The Patriots have spent in cash so far in 2013 and in 2014 $224,656,000 or about 87%.

9.) Provided 7 possible reasons for the Patriots to have 9 million or so in cap space currently at
http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/?p=814.

10.) FYI - Brady's 2015 cap hit is $13 million. If traded between now and 6/2/2015 his 2015 cap hit increases to $18 million. If he is on the Patriots Week 17 roster, his future salaries ($24 million worth) become fully guaranteed and without any offsets. So if cut during the 2015 season his cap hit would be $42 million (18 +24).

11.) There is this notion that the Patriots' high amount of dead money prevented them spending cash this year. Do not see a strong correlation between the two at http://overthecap.com/cash-spending and http://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space

Example - Seahawks have about 7 million less in dead money and have spent about $45 million more than the Patriots.
 
Sports Tonight talked about Brady's cap numbers mentioned in point 10 above.
 
From Miguel's cap information, it seems to me that if the Pats were ever to entertain a blockbuster Brady trade, it would have to come in the next few weeks before the trade deadline at the end of October. If he's on the roster at the end of this season, the subsequent $42 million dead money cap hit would make it move very difficult.
 
From Miguel's cap information, it seems to me that if the Pats were ever to entertain a blockbuster Brady trade, it would have to come in the next few weeks before the trade deadline at the end of October. If he's on the roster at the end of this season, the subsequent $42 million dead money cap hit would make it move very difficult.
That is indeed the way the contract is constructed.
 
From Miguel's cap information, it seems to me that if the Pats were ever to entertain a blockbuster Brady trade, it would have to come in the next few weeks before the trade deadline at the end of October. If he's on the roster at the end of this season, the subsequent $42 million dead money cap hit would make it move very difficult.
The $42 million cap hit is from cutting Brady, not from trading Brady. The $24 million in guaranteed salaries would go to his new team.
 
Thanks, Miguel. That gives the Patriots a lot more options. Specifically, one option would be hope that he plays well this season and do a blockbuster trade with Mark Davis in the offseason.
 
The $42 million cap hit is from cutting Brady, not from trading Brady. The $24 million in guaranteed salaries would go to his new team.
So, let's say the Pats lose three of their next four games and are 3-5 at the halfway mark and the trade deadline. Good lord, trading Brady almost is conceivable if that happens and another team wants him badly enough.
 
Miguel, if the pats don't pick up Revis's contract for next year. How much cap space (currently without any more cuts) will the pats have in 2015 including the $11.4 m in space?

Also, that 8M carryover. Is that included in the $11.4M figure? or will that be on top of that figure i.e we could have spent $19.4M extra this season if we wanted to?

Just trying to get some exact numbers as I believe next year there is a solid chance Revis isn't picked up (even tho he is very good) and i wanted to see what our cap space would be (cap being the standard projection).

Thanks for all of you work by the way.
 
So, let's say the Pats lose three of their next four games and are 3-5 at the halfway mark and the trade deadline. Good lord, trading Brady almost is conceivable if that happens and another team wants him badly enough.

With Miguel's correction of my error, there's no reason for the Pats to consider a trade before the end of the season.

Also, with the structure of the contract, there is no way that the Pats ever release Brady. He'll either retire or he'll be traded (even if it's for a cup of coffee and conditional 7th round draft pick).

But, yes. If the Pats are 3-5 at the halfway mark (and certainly if they continue to be one of the worst offenses in the league), then, I think the franchise will pretty much know that the end of the Brady era is at hand. There would not be much point in keeping a 38 year old QB for a lengthy rebuild scenario.
 
Question for Miguel: off the top of your head, would the Pats have been OK cap-wise to have kept Spikes, Tommy Kelly and Mankins at their existing contracts? Just curious.
 
Question for Miguel: off the top of your head, would the Pats have been OK cap-wise to have kept Spikes, Tommy Kelly and Mankins at their existing contracts? Just curious.

Spikes was never an option after he blew off the offseason conditioning program in Foxboro. The Pats were never going to pay free agent money for a second contract on a guy (the only guy on the team, if I recall), who doesn't even care enough to train with the team.
 
Spikes was never an option after he blew off the offseason conditioning program in Foxboro. The Pats were never going to pay free agent money for a second contract on a guy (the only guy on the team, if I recall), who doesn't even care enough to train with the team.
Problem is, he's lighting it up in Buffalo -- at least as a run-stuffer -- which is something we could use. I find myself wondering how much better off the Pats might be with Spikes, Kelly and Mankins still in the fold.
 
Problem is, he's lighting it up in Buffalo -- at least as a run-stuffer -- which is something we could use. I find myself wondering how much better off the Pats might be with Spikes, Kelly and Mankins still in the fold.

There are lots of players lighting it up in the NFL that Belichick wouldn't have on his team, including every player (short of a HOF veteran) who decides he doesn't need the team's offseason conditioning program. It is what it is.
 
Miguel, if the pats don't pick up Revis's contract for next year. How much cap space (currently without any more cuts) will the pats have in 2015 including the $11.4 m in space?
I previewed the Patriots 2015 salary cap at http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/?p=800
I should have said earlier that I have the Patriots w/9.1 million in cap space. Do not know how Jonathan came up with his 11.4m figure.

Also, that 8M carryover. Is that included in the $11.4M figure? or will that be on top of that figure i.e we could have spent $19.4M extra this season if we wanted to
Any carryover, be it Jonathan's 8m or the NFLPA's 4.1m is included in the cap space number.

Just trying to get some exact numbers as I believe next year there is a solid chance Revis isn't picked up (even tho he is very good) and i wanted to see what our cap space would be (cap being the standard projection).

There is no way to get exact numbers at this time since no one knows how many incentives will be reached.
Thanks for all of you work by the way.[/QUOTE]
You are welcome.
 
There are lots of players lighting it up in the NFL that Belichick wouldn't have on his team, including every player (short of a HOF veteran) who decides he doesn't need the team's offseason conditioning program. It is what it is.
The OTAs Spikes skipped were voluntary; he opted to train at Bommarito Performance in Florida, which has a good reputation. It is what it is.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/...rking_out_at_bommarito_performance_in_florida

Bommarito structures his spring camp to closely simulate an NFL team's offseason program, which has increased its popularity over the years. It's been particularly popular with the Patriots, too. Former running back Fred Taylor joined the program while with the Jaguars in 2006, and he introduced Wes Welker to the camp when they teamed up in New England. Tight end Rob Gronkowski conducted his pre-draft training at Bommarito Performance and returned after his rookie season, and Aaron Hernandez, Donte Stallworth and Marcus Forston have also participated in the program.

"We've definitely had very good success with that team," Bommarito said.
 
Question for Miguel: off the top of your head, would the Pats have been OK cap-wise to have kept Spikes, Tommy Kelly and Mankins at their existing contracts? Just curious.

No.
I have the Patriots with 9.1m in cap space. The Pats need to reserve cap space to replace injured players and to account for reached NLTBE 46-man active roster bonuses.
 
I'm aware of where Spikes trained. A lot of NFL players like to train in south Florida. Might be the weather. Might be the South Beach club scene. Might be the NFL pee tester who got fired for working with players to beat the testing.

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Spikes could have gone to train with Bommarito before and after the Pats OTAs. I'm sure that Belichick was fine with Revis and McCourty going out to Phoenix to train at Fisher Institute. Again, Spikes was the ONLY player who blew off the offseason program in Foxboro.
 
No.
I have the Patriots with 9.1m in cap space. The Pats need to reserve cap space to replace injured players and to account for reached NLTBE 46-man active roster bonuses.
Are the NLTBE bonuses counted differently than those likely to be achieved for purposes other than reporting of numbers? Might there be some gray area where one might be treated as the other during the course of the season before it is achieved? Or maybe JKraft is simply not counting all accrued NLTBE bonus payments as carefully as you. [emoji41]
 
I'm aware of where Spikes trained. A lot of NFL players like to train in south Florida. Might be the weather. Might be the South Beach club scene. Might be the NFL pee tester who got fired for working with players to beat the testing.

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Spikes could have gone to train with Bommarito before and after the Pats OTAs. I'm sure that Belichick was fine with Revis and McCourty going out to Phoenix to train at Fisher Institute. Again, Spikes was the ONLY player who blew off the offseason program in Foxboro.
Your "might be's" are irrelevant speculation. If he "blew it off" to sit on the couch and eat Cheetos, that could be a problem. He didn't, and played well last year. Bottom line is the OTAs were voluntary and Spikes made every mandatory session. So, my guess is his exit was more contract-related. I could see the OTAs issue being part of the overall picture but not the whole story.
 
So, my guess is his exit was more contract-related.

Oh, his departure was definitely contract related. The Pats never offered him one.... :)

It was obvious they wouldn't when he announced that he was blowing off the OTAs and they didn't.
 
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