FO: Pats OL ranked 10th in run blocking

Those are the kind of results that tell you "****, back to the drawing board with this model".

Back in 2001 or so, I saw a statistical model that claimed Trot Nixon was a top-5 outfielder in the MLB. Same general principle.

Sicilian said:

It really comes down to websites trying to quantify a facet of the game that is almost impossible to summarize with numbers. Stats almost never tell the whole story, but they're far more representative when you're talking about QB's, RB's, WR's, team defensive stats, etc. The complexity of OL play is so subtle that it makes this kind of analysis just mental masturbation.

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While I appreciate what you're saying, and I don't disagree with you, I was referring to Patsfans.com posters. I've seen people here

1. Defend the run game with raw YAC (Triumph) and 0 context
   
2. Defend the OL, claiming it's giving Brady more time than last year (AzPatsfan), with 0 context
   
3. Ignore Gronk's hitch/stumble on that wide open pass to him (damn near everyone)
4. etc...

Deus Irae said:

They used a 6th OL for much of the game against the Vikings.
The run was mostly shut down against Miami.



Are people not watching the games? A lot more of the 'analysis' than usual has been absolutely terrible.

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Football Outsiders, as a whole, is beginning to go the way of PFF. The article they wrote on why Brady is declining was one, massive reach and this analysis makes very little sense. It's a shame because they used to be a must-visit website of for me...

EDIT: Posted this before I read your response to Sicilian.

Deus Irae said:

While I appreciate what you're saying, and I don't disagree with you, I was referring to Patsfans.com posters. I've seen people here

1. Defend the run game with raw YAC (Triumph) and 0 context
   
2. Defend the OL, claiming it's giving Brady more time than last year (AzPatsfan), with 0 context
   
3. Ignore Gronk's hitch/stumble on that wide open pass to him (damn near everyone)
4. etc...

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Ah, okay. My mistake, though I agree as well.

borg said:

That would be awesome ....if...BB kept on the roster the one RB he trusted down the stretch last year. But alas, BB chose to keep the RB he didn't trust down the stretch last year instead. And based on 2014 deployment, our goal line back is our 3rd down scat back.
Very confused!!!

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so far, i've liked Ridleys play though...he seems to be clutching onto that ball Alot tighter.

RIpats88 said:

so far, i've liked Ridleys play though...he seems to be clutching onto that ball Alot tighter.

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Cluthcing tighter yes. But he is not as elusive or forceful as he once was with yards after contact.

KontradictioN said:

It's not just you. They're incredibly predictable right now because they have to be. The pass protection is forcing their hand. Brady has to rely on the guy(s) who gets open the quickest to avoid the hit/sack. That's why Edelman is leading the team in receptions.

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And although Edelman by far leads the team in targets and receptions, I'll actually give Brady/McDaniels credit for trying to spread the ball and even work in a long pass here and there - especially against the Raiders

I think they used the opportunity playing the Raiders to try to give more guys more looks - though in the end that resulted in a closer game then they would have liked

Hopefully the OL improves and protects Brady more and they can further spread the offense - but it seems to me they recognize the need to try, though the OL makes it difficult

KontradictioN said:

It's not just you. They're incredibly predictable right now because they have to be. The pass protection is forcing their hand. Brady has to rely on the guy(s) who gets open the quickest to avoid the hit/sack. That's why Edelman is leading the team in receptions.

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I have a feeling even if the o line was great..he would still be leading in receptions and amendola would still be in the dog house. He is still our Best WR we have so he should be leading in receptions. Only real guy Brady trusts as you said to get open quick.

I hope Dobson plays...

Our running game was #10 in the NFL last year. With Blount gone and Vereen healthy, we should be about the same this year. As last year, that's all we need to be a top 5 (or top 3) offense.

SeanBruschi54 said:

Cluthcing tighter yes. But he is not as elusive or forceful as he once was with yards after contact.

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Go back and watch last week's game.

RIpats88 said:

so far, i've liked Ridleys play though...he seems to be clutching onto that ball Alot tighter.

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He's definitely holding the ball a lot tighter and maintains it through the end of the play. He also seems to be running a lot higher than he used to.

Teams are ranked according to Adjusted Line Yards. Based on regression analysis, the Adjusted Line Yards formula takes all running back carries and assigns responsibility to the offensive line based on the following percentages:

• Losses: 120% value
• 0-4 Yards: 100% value
• 5-10 Yards: 50% value
• 11+ Yards: 0% value

These numbers are then adjusted based on down, distance, situation, opponent, and the difference in rushing average between shotgun compared to standard formations. Finally, we normalize the numbers so that the league average for Adjusted Line Yards per carry is the same as the league average for RB yards per carry. These stats are explained further here.

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If you look at the other categories, the Pats are 21st in "power success", 18th in getting stuffed least often, 15th in 2nd level yards, and 30th in open field yards. So why such a high ranking? Probably sample size error.

Just guessing, I'd bet the OL is getting too much credit for shotgun runs, 3 tackle sets, and weak competition. Look for them to plummet after opponent adjustments are included after Week 4.

I don't think the o-line has been particularly great at run blocking, but the negativism about the Pats not being able to run the ball has gone way overboard. The Pats did rush for 150 yards vs. the Vikes (which is 40 yards more than their average) and for 4.5 YPC vs. the Dolphins (not great, but respectable).

All I heard this week is because the Pats couldn't run vs. the Raiders is how the Pats haven't been able to run the ball either this year. That isn't the case. They ran well for a game and a half (firs half vs. the Dolphins and the Vikes game) and ran poorly for one game (Oakland) and didn't really run the ball for another half (the second half vs. the Dolphins).

This OL will need to improve to be better at run blocking than last year (with Mankins and Wendell starting). Also, we had Blount last year.

That being said, we should be able to improve and match last year's #10 run performance.

the chiefs are weak against the run. we should be able to run on them. i said the same thing about the ****ty raiders and we couldn't run at all. playcalling is ****ing predictable. brady throws a quick 8 yard pass then we rush to the line real fast and run...it never works anymore. lol

No surprise that they are ranked almost last or nearly last when running to the left and well above average when going up the middle or running right. Nate Solder has been brutal this year and Mankins was still a beast in the run game. Vollmer has been their best lineman and even he is not what he was before the injuries. Connolly 2nd best but looking like he doesn't play Monday...can't wait to watch Devey try and block Poe...

Did Not Participate — Placed on IR-DFR
DT Sealver Siliga (ankle)

Limited — Probable
DE Michael Buchanan (ankle)
LB Jamie Collins (thigh)
OL Dan Connolly (knee)
CB Alfonzo Dennard (shoulder)
TE Rob Gronkowski (knee)
S Don Jones (hamstring)

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http://itiswhatitis.weei.com/sports...nnard-te-rob-gronkowski-and-lb-jamie-collins/

In other news, Peyton Manning set a completion record in last years Superbowl. lol

RIpats88 said:

personally, I think we should go back to being a run first team like we were last year. it will help the Oline to get more into a rhythm and be physical, and it will help when we do pass. Feed Ridley the rock.

please, no more vereen/bolden on the goal line.

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1) We were not a run-first team last year. We ended up 10th in rushing.

2) Did I miss a transaction? Have we traded for Blount?

There is nothing wrong with Brady and his skills have not declined. He just does not have anyone to throw to; all an opposing team has to do is stop the run and double Edleman and Brady is screwed. The line cannot protect him forever if there is no one open.

Brady's attitude has been a problem, though. But I suppose you can hardly blame him for being a whiny ***** lately; Sanders and Welker are in Denver while the Patriots have many millions in free cap space. The Kraft obsess about saving every last dime while the Bronco obsess about getting the best possible receivers for their star QB; both teams have done a great job reaching their goals.