My Blueprint for the Offense

patsfaninpa said:

I hate to spend a first on a guard. We've won a few Super Bowls with some non-descript ones. And so have other teams. I'd rather sign a reasonably priced vet and draft a mid-rounder.

Love Gronk and Amendola. Would like to surround them with a couple of explosive athletes.
What do you guys think of Melvin Gordon in the first? He's a superior athlete and was a better RB at Wisconsin than James White. I want more than we're getting out of Ridley and Vereen. Let em walk. Blount saved us last year. I normally prefer bigger backs and would have been tempted by Carlos Hyde if he fell a couple more picks in the draft. Brady with the play-action threat is our best offense IMO.

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I wouldn't spend a 1st on a RB, personally.

patsfaninpa said:

Love Gronk and Amendola. Would like to surround them with a couple of explosive athletes...

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Do you mean Gronk & Edelman?

captain stone said:

Do you mean Gronk & Edelman?

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Oops. My bad. Good catch. I meant Edelman not Amendola. I hate it when I see mocks suggesting a wr in the 3rd/4th round. That's called pissing into the wind. Pats fans may not believe it. But, first round picks at wr have actually helped teams win. Just because we won without doing it, doesn't mean it's the only path to take. I just cringe when I see Brady try to throw a ball over a db and hoping Edelman or Amendola are going to go up and come down with it.

Amendola should never be used in the RZ, if not - perhaps as early as Tymms' reinstatement -
in any zone eventually. LaFell can be given his snaps in the RZ with Gronk & Wright.
Bill needs to know what he has in Dobson & Thompkins, on the field, at the same time.
Unless Minitron is injured, then Amendola should sit, if that's what has to happen to ensure
that both Dobson & Thompkins are active.

patsfaninpa said:

I hate it when I see mocks suggesting a wr in the 3rd/4th round. That's called pissing into the wind. Pats fans may not believe it. But, first round picks at wr have actually helped teams win. Just because we won without doing it, doesn't mean it's the only path to take.

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I hate it when I see mocks suggesting a WR in the 1st round. What a waste. Not a position I would waste a premium pick on.

Seriously, as with any position, there are certainly worthy players in the 1st round, but also lots on day 2, day 3, and even as UDFAs.

- Day 1: If you want to spent a top 6 pick on Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgeral, Andre Johnson, AJ Green or Julio Jones you'd certainly get a good player, but at a steep price. Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant are good, but they took a good 2+ years to develop. But there are plenty of busts like Charles Rodgers, Braylon Edwards, Mike Williams, Darius Heyward-Bey, Jonathan Baldwin, Justin Blackmon, AJ Jenkins. I'm guessing the bust rate is probably close to 50%.

- Day 2: Obviously not as rich at the top as the first round. But plenty of good ones: Anquan Bolden, Randall Cobb, Greg Jennings, Alshon Jeffery, Vincent Jackson, Torrey Smith, Emmauel Sanders, Eric Decker, Mike Wallace, Jorday Nelson, DeSean Jackson, and Steve Smith.

- Dat 3/UDFA: Obviously the odds are lower. But still plenty of good ones out there: Brandon Marshall, Antonio Brown, Wes Welker, Victor Cruz, Marques Colston, Brian Hartline, Marvin Jones, among many others.

Most of the recent SB teams haven't been stacked with 1st round WRs:

- 2013: Percy Harvin barely played last year for Seattle. Demaryius Thomas was a good 1st round pick for Denver, but Eric Decker (3rd), Wes Welker (UDFA -> UFA) and Julius Thoams (5th) were also solid. Emmanuel Sanders (3rd) has been excellent so far this year.

- 2012: Anquan Bolden was a day 2 pick who Baltimore traded for. Torrey Smith was a 2nd round pick. The Ravens' last 1st round WR, Mark Clayton, didn't do much. SF spent the #10 pick on Michael Crabtree, and he's been ok but not a world beater.

- 2011: Hakeem Nicks played well, but he's been erratic. Victor Cruz was a UDFA, and Mario Marringham a 3rd round pick. The Pats had those motley WRs you've been bemoaning.

- 2010: Green Bay won with 2nd round picks (Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson). Pittsburgh had Mike Wallace (3rd), Antonio Brown (6th) and Emmanuel Sanders (6th).

- 2009: New Orleans won with 7th round pick Marques Colston leading their WR corps. Their 1st round picks haven't done much.

It's a matter of preference, but personally I'll take "pissing in the wind" over spending a 1st round pick on a position with a 50% success rate that I don't really value as worth a 1st round pick.

Looking at the 1st round WRs since 2000, and which ones have proven worthy of the spot at which they were picked:

2000:

4. Peter Warwick. No way.
8. Plaxico Burress. I don't think so, though he didn't have a bad career.
10. Travis Taylor. Not even close.
21. Sylvester Morris. Nope.
29. R. Jay Soward. Nope.

2001:

7. David Terrell. Nada.
9. Koren Robinson. Good return man for a year or 2, but that's not enough.
15. Ron Gardner. Nope.
16. Santana Moss. OK, but not special.
25. Freddie Mitchell. Nope.
31. Reggie Wayne. Hell, yeah. HOFer.

2002:

14. Donte' Stallworth. Meh.
19. Ashley Lelie. Meh or worse.
20. Javon Walker. Probably.

2003:

2. Charles Rogers. Epic fail.
3. Andre Johnson. Hell, yeah.
17. Bryant Johnson. Meh.

2004:

3. Larry Fitzgerald. Hell, yeah.
7. Roy Williams. Maybe a 1st rounder, but not worth #7.
9. Reggie Williams. Bust.
13. Lee Evans. Probably.
15. Michael Clayton. Maybe, for a couple of years.
29. Michael Jenkins. Meh.
31. Rashaun Woods. Bust.

2005:

3. Braylon Edwards. Meh at best.
7. Troy Williamson. Bust.
10. Mike Williams. Bust.
21. Matt Jones. Bust.
22. Mark Clayton. Meh at best.
27. Roddy White. Home run.

2006:

25. Santonio Holmes. Probably, though I wouldn't want him on my team.

2007:

3. Calvin Johnson. Future HOFer.
9. Ted Ginn. Good return man, lousy WR.
23. Dwayne Bowe. Yup.
27. Robert Meachem. Meh.
30. Craig Davis. Did nothing.
32. Anthony Gonzalez. Meh.

2009:

7. Darius Heyward-Bey. Meh at best.
10. Michael Crabtree. Good receiver, though I don't think he was worth #10 (though it was a crappy draft).
19. Jeremy Maclin. I'm ok with this.
21. Percy Harvin. Yup.
29. Hakeem Nicks. Yup.
30. Kenny Britt. Not worth it.

2010:

22. Demaryius Thomas. Home run.
24. Dez Bryant. Yup.

2011:

4. AJ Green. Easy call.
6. Julio Jones. Even easier.
26. Jonathan Baldwin. Bust.

2012:

5. Justin Blackmon. Bust.
13. Michael Floyd. Looks solid.
20. Kendall Wright. Looks solid.
31. AJ Jenkins. Bust.

I think it's too soon to evaluate anyone taken after 2002. I count about 19/52 WRs taken in the 1st round from 2000-2012 who were probably worth taking at their spot, and that's being generous in some cases. There were 9-10 "franchise" receivers taken out of those 52 picks: Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Percy Harvin, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, AJ Green and Julio Jones.

I find it interesting that we will put an ungodly number of resources. Draft picks and money into stopping wide receivers. But, don't seem to think it's very important to get our own HOF qb those same weapons.

patsfaninpa said:

I find it interesting that we will put an ungodly number of resources. Draft picks and money into stopping wide receivers. But, don't seem to think it's very important to get our own HOF qb those same weapons.

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I think it has to do with predictability. My understanding is that it's really tough to project wide outs from college systems to pro systems. Thus, there's a high variability in success rates on WR in the early rounds (see Mayoclinic's post above on 1st round WRs) and a relatively high number of later round/UDA successes at the position. I would suspect that CB skills are a lot easier to project -it's generally the same tactics but likely with more press coverage in the NFL than college - and thus I'd expect that we'd see a higher number of successes with early picks there when compared to WR. The Richard Shermans of the world are the exception at CB where it seems to be much more common at WR. If this is really the case, then it makes a lot of sense to go with the early round CB because you're more likely to hit on that pick than with the WR.

But that's only a theory, I don't have the facts to back it up (and unfortunately I don't have the time to research it).

We drafted Butler, McCourty and Dowling with essentially first round picks. None of them can play cb for us.

patsfaninpa said:

I hate to spend a first on a guard. We've won a few Super Bowls with some non-descript ones. And so have other teams. I'd rather sign a reasonably priced vet and draft a mid-rounder.

Love Gronk and Amendola. Would like to surround them with a couple of explosive athletes.
What do you guys think of Melvin Gordon in the first? He's a superior athlete and was a better RB at Wisconsin than James White. I want more than we're getting out of Ridley and Vereen. Let em walk. Blount saved us last year. I normally prefer bigger backs and would have been tempted by Carlos Hyde if he fell a couple more picks in the draft. Brady with the play-action threat is our best offense IMO.

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My reasoning for maybe wanting a guard, or a tackle that we put into guard for a while, early in the draft is that I believe it will help Brady more than a really good WR. Brady is at his best when he can dissect the defense and find the open guy. But right now he doesn't really have time to do that. Right now I think we benefit the most of Edelman type of receivers, those that can get open very fast from the snap, as Brady doesn't really have time for the deep and intermediate routes to develop. I also don't think he really trust his OL enough to go through his progression to those deeper routes and instead throws to the semi open Edelman as he might get hit before finding the next open guy.

If a guard can project to tackle, that's fine. Vollmer has had a myriad of health problems. A big old guard who can slide to tackle when Sea Bass can't go any more is fine. Just don't think we need a 330lb mauler who can't play tackle.

patsfaninpa said:

I find it interesting that we will put an ungodly number of resources. Draft picks and money into stopping wide receivers. But, don't seem to think it's very important to get our own HOF qb those same weapons.

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I never said it wasn't important to have receivers. I questioned whether spending 1st round draft picks on the position makes sense.

We just spent a 2nd on Aaron Dobson. Apparently people are writing him off already, after he had a solid rookie season until getting hurt, and doesn't appear to be full strength. It takes most WRs - the good ones - at least a year or two to develop. Demaryius Thomas had 54 receptions for 834 yards and 6 TDs in his first 2 seasons combined; Roddy White had 59 receptions for 952 yards and 3 TDs in his first 2 seasons; Reggie Wayne and 76 receptions for 1061 yards and 4 TDs in his first 2 seasons. All 1st round picks, and in that small minority of 1st round WRs who have been wildly successful. Vincent Jackson had 30 receptions for 512 yards and 6 TDs in his first 2 seasons and Jordy Nelson had 55 receptions for 686 yards and 4 TDs in his first 2 seasons. Meanwhile Alshon Jeffery had all of 24 receptions for 367 yards and 3 TDs as a rookie, and Dez Bryant had 45 receptions for 561 yards and 6 TDs.

The WR position is a difficult one to develop, especially with our system and QB, which requires meticulous route running and precision timing. We've seen veterans who have thrived elsewhere struggle repeatedly when they come here.

By all means invest in the WR position, but do it judiciously, rather than throwing 1st round picks at athletic receivers who don't fit (e.g., Cordarelle Patterson and Justin Hunter). If the right guy is available within reach in the late 1st, it wouldn't be the worst thing. But I'd want to be pretty sure that he was the "right guy", and I generally think you can find someone as good for our system later on.

patsfaninpa said:

We drafted Butler, McCourty and Dowling with essentially first round picks. None of them can play cb for us.

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Butler was pick #9 in the second round. Gronk was pick #10 of the second round - do we call him essentially a first round pick?

McCourty can and has played CB for the team. He played in that role at times last year. The team decided with the rest of the talent around them that it was for the best of the team to have him at free safety most of the time. Yes he struggled in 2011, but he was doing fine in 2012 and in those snaps in 2013 at CB.

I'll give you Ras-I. But I'd call that a 50% success ratio, with McCourty counted as a success because he was moved to safety due to his teammates' abilities rather than his.

At times it appears the Patriots think of it as an after-thought. I'm a bit of a NFL historian. The three most dominant teams In NFL history before our run drafted a wr in the first. Even after having some success without one.

Pitt - Swann in 74 after playoffs in 72 and 73.

SF - Walsh trades up with us to get Jerry Rice. After he already won 2 Super Bowls

Dallas - inherited Michael Irvin but still added Alvin Harper. Who helped.

Pitt and Dallas also had first rounders at RB in Franco and Emmitt. SF used a second rounder on Craig. 49th overall. Skill people are important. It's ok to target them. The smartest men in NFL history have.

patsfaninpa said:

At times it appears the Patriots think of it as an after-thought. I'm a bit of a NFL historian. The three most dominant teams In NFL history before our run drafted a wr in the first. Even after having some success without one.

Pitt - Swann in 74 after playoffs in 72 and 73.

SF - Walsh trades up with us to get Jerry Rice. After he already won 2 Super Bowls

Dallas - inherited Michael Irvin but still added Alvin Harper. Who helped.

Pitt and Dallas also had first rounders at RB in Franco and Emmitt. SF used a second rounder on Craig. 49th overall. Skill people are important. It's ok to target them. The smartest men in NFL history have.

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If you want to base your draft strategy on what teams did 20-40 years ago, be my guest. Teams routinely spent top 10 picks and even the #1 overall pick on RBs. SF won 2 SBs before they got Jerry Rice, as you note - with Dwight Clark, a 10th round draft choice, as their go to WR.

Again, if BB sees a WR that he believes is the best value on the board in the 1st round, then I can live with it. If he finds a Jerry Rice on the board, more power to him. But it's not my personal choice, and I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for it to happen if I were you.

Seattle, Denver and SF aren't holding their breathe. We're no longer the smartest guys in the room. Really gonna hit home when TB12 hangs em up.

patsfaninpa said:

Seattle, Denver and SF aren't holding their breathe. We're no longer the smartest guys in the room. Really gonna hit home when TB12 hangs em up.

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The difference between those teams and the Pats, is that they either have a very good OL, or a QB who can make time to let the routes develop. We don't have that.

I don't think I can emphasize enough how good it is that we aren't facing Houston this year, atleast not before the playoffs. Imaging J.J Watt going against Devey. It would be a freaking slaughter. No mather who we lined up at WR.

mayoclinic said:

Looking at the 1st round WRs since 2000, and which ones have proven worthy of the spot at which they were picked:

I think it's too soon to evaluate anyone taken after 2002. I count about 19/52 WRs taken in the 1st round from 2000-2012 who were probably worth taking at their spot, and that's being generous in some cases. There were 9-10 "franchise" receivers taken out of those 52 picks: Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Percy Harvin, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, AJ Green and Julio Jones.

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You could probably do the same exercise for most positions (in fact I did for Defensiv Tackles a couple of years ago.) unless you are drafting one in the top 10 , there was no benefit to drafting one in the first round over the fourth round.

I think it's wrong personally to dismiss a position based upon these metrics. It makes more sense to evaluate on an individual basis - I'd take Randy Moss over Cameron Heyward every day of the week and if I was a team owner and my GM said he'd passed on Moss because he doesn't believe in taking first round WRs, I'd sack him on the spot. Sorry Mayo but I can't agree with you here.

manxman2601 said:

You could probably do the same exercise for most positions (in fact I did for Defensiv Tackles a couple of years ago.) unless you are drafting one in the top 10 , there was no benefit to drafting one in the first round over the fourth round.

I think it's wrong personally to dismiss a position based upon these metrics. It makes more sense to evaluate on an individual basis - I'd take Randy Moss over Cameron Heyward every day of the week and if I was a team owner and my GM said he'd passed on Moss because he doesn't believe in taking first round WRs, I'd sack him on the spot. Sorry Mayo but I can't agree with you here.

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I wouldn't expect you to, Manx. Your views have been very clear in the past. Nor should you - I'm certainly not expecting universal agreement.

I have a very strong personal approach to team-building which includes building around defense and the lines first (except for QB, which is the most important position on the field). I personally wouldn't spend a 1st on a WR or RB, with perhaps very rare exceptions. I thought Doug Martin was good enough to warrant a late 1st round pick in 2012. There are certainly WRs who have been good enough to justify a 1st round pick, and I wouldn't scream if BB chose to use one on such a player, but it wouldn't personally be the way I would go. I don't expect everyone to agree with that.

I thought that Odell Beckham was a 1st-round worthy WR last year. But I also liked Cody Latimer and Jordan Matthews. I wouldn't have cringed if Beckham had been on the board at 29, but I also suspected he would be long gone at that point, as he was. And I probably personally would have traded back and picked a WR in the 2nd - I was actually hoping the Pats would trade up in the 2nd to get Latimer, who I thought had the potential to be a stud.

I personally have no problem spending draft capital on a WR on day 2 or 3. Jordy Nelson, Greg Jennings, Keenan Allen. Loved them all. I think Dobson could end up being quite good, though it's too early to be sure. But my personal approach would be to build around defense and the lines first. That's just me.

mayoclinic said:

I wouldn't expect you to, Manx. Your views have been very clear in the past. Nor should you - I'm certainly not expecting universal agreement.

I have a very strong personal approach to team-building which includes building around defense and the lines first (except for QB, which is the most important position on the field). I personally wouldn't spend a 1st on a WR or RB, with perhaps very rare exceptions. I thought Doug Martin was good enough to warrant a late 1st round pick in 2012. There are certainly

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That's fair enough.