My Blueprint for the Defense

manxman2601 said:

I think athleticism in a 3-4, particularly in this specific role, is a little overrated anyway - they only need enough to drop into a zone coverage every now and then anyway. After all, how many times has Chandler Jones dropped into coverage in the last two games? If it's more than ten I'd be amazed.

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I agree with this, though not every player can make the transition effectively. It's not so much about pure lateral agility and having loose hips as it is about experience, mindset, and scheming the player to their advantage and to minimize their limitations. If Derrick Morgan (who seems a bit similar to Odighizuwa, from what little film I've watched) can do it, then the level of raw athleticism required isn't that extreme.

mayoclinic said:

Lots of teams run multi-front hybrid defenses. We've talked about some of them in this thread - Seattle, Ray Horton (now with Tennessee). The Ryan brothers have done it to some extent. The Pats have run a multi-front hybrid for several years, though it's been labelled a 3-4 at times and a 4-3 at other times. But I've never seen a team do what the Pats are currently doing, in terms of running a 3-4 base with 4-3 personnel and flip-flopping 2 players between OLB and 5-tech. Andy Johnson mentioned in another thread that he can't recall seeing anything quite like this, either. If you look at BradyFTW!'s play breakdowns on the thread on the main board you can see that the distinction between 3-4 and 4-3 becomes extremely fuzzy at times. As far as I can tell, the main driving forces are (1) getting as many of your best players on the field as possible, (2) balancing run-stopping capability with pass rush and disruptive capability, and (3) flexibility, disguise, and creating confusion. It's very innovative and creative stuff. We'll see how effective it is as things play out.

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I think a lot of what is happening is the second bolded motivating the first. It's why using what is happening this year as a guide for future years, and therefore draft picks, is going to be difficult. It should also be noted however that according to Oliver Thomas, we were only in a 3-4 for less than 20% of the plays. I do think, as I know you do, that we need to get out of a 3-4, 4-3 etc mindset and focus on the different techniques players are playing. It's not easy to do without re-watching the game and it's much nicer to generalise but we can't really talk about ourselves as a 3-4 team when we only play it for 10 snaps in a game.

manxman2601 said:

I think a lot of what is happening is the second bolded motivating the first. It's why using what is happening this year as a guide for future years, and therefore draft picks, is going to be difficult. It should also be noted however that according to Oliver Thomas, we were only in a 3-4 for less than 20% of the plays. I do think, as I know you do, that we need to get out of a 3-4, 4-3 etc mindset and focus on the different techniques players are playing. It's not easy to do without re-watching the game and it's much nicer to generalise but we can't really talk about ourselves as a 3-4 team when we only play it for 10 snaps in a game.

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We're in base for only about 30% of the snaps, regardless of what exact technical formation. So I think you have to make a tradeoff between the players you might prefer for the base and the players who give you the most advantage in sub. Smaller, quicker, more attacking players like Chandler Jones and Dominique Easley are a better model for this than 300# classic 3-4 DE prospects like Stephon Tuitt or Ra'Shede Hageman. So you optimize for your sub defense, and then scheme your base to get the best players on the field and the best balance between run stopping and pass rushing capability. I think the Pats are doing an interesting job of attempting to balance all of these factors.

mayoclinic said:

We're in base for only about 30% of the snaps, regardless of what exact technical formation. So I think you have to make a tradeoff between the players you might prefer for the base and the players who give you the most advantage in sub. Smaller, quicker, more attacking players like Chandler Jones and Dominique Easley are a better model for this than 300# classic 3-4 DE prospects like Stephon Tuitt or Ra'Shede Hageman. So you optimize for your sub defense, and then scheme your base to get the best players on the field and the best balance between run stopping and pass rushing capability. I think the Pats are doing an interesting job of attempting to balance all of these factors.

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I agree with this and credit to you, you were probably the first, or at least most vocal, in identifying the bolded. It is interesting that we haven't seen the sub 245b linebacker though. Do you think that will happen too or do you think Mayo and Collins are the role model. They certainly looked at the sub 240 guys last off-season in Woodyard, Anderson and Dekoda Watson. I suspect that the linebackers will stay big but that the safety/linebacker hybrid for that nickel safety role will be the more likely possibility.

manxman2601 said:

I agree with this and credit to you, you were probably the first, or at least most vocal, in identifying the bolded.

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More like most vocal, rather than first. But thanks.

manxman2601 said:

It is interesting that we haven't seen the sub 245b linebacker though. Do you think that will happen too or do you think Mayo and Collins are the role model. They certainly looked at the sub 240 guys last off-season in Woodyard, Anderson and Dekoda Watson. I suspect that the linebackers will stay big but that the safety/linebacker hybrid for that nickel safety role will be the more likely possibility.

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It is indeed interesting, and I don't know the answer. I've been saying for a long time that Dont'a Hightower and Chandler Jones were incongruous picks in the same round of the same draft, but I'm having to take that back given the apparent current direction of the defense - they both fit fairly well if you consider the overall master plan. Someone like Lavonte David fits tremendously in the sub and in some 4-3 fronts, but not as a 3-4 OLB, and he's severely undersized as a 3-4 ILB. I'm not sure whether Ryan Shazier would fit, either. It's possible that BB could have used either of those guys as a LB/S hybrid (Shaq Thompson), but doubtful that either would fit well as a LB in the base. Jamie Collins, OTOH, is a guy who has the size, athleticism and skill set to thrive in both base and sub packages.

My best guess - and it's purely a guess - is that BB is going to favor guys with versatility to play in 3-4 and 4-3 hybrid base fronts and in sub packages. I agree with you, I kind of doubt that we'll see many under-240# LBs except as a LB/S hybrid, but I could see him jumping all over a guy like Bernardrick McKinney. LB depth is a key, and I think that McKinney could be a terrific rotational player along with Collins and Mayo, and could play outside as well as inside.

mayoclinic said:

We're in base for only about 30% of the snaps, regardless of what exact technical formation. So I think you have to make a tradeoff between the players you might prefer for the base and the players who give you the most advantage in sub. Smaller, quicker, more attacking players like Chandler Jones and Dominique Easley are a better model for this than 300# classic 3-4 DE prospects like Stephon Tuitt or Ra'Shede Hageman. So you optimize for your sub defense, and then scheme your base to get the best players on the field and the best balance between run stopping and pass rushing capability. I think the Pats are doing an interesting job of attempting to balance all of these factors.

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Looks like our Nickel is a lot like a regular 4 front but with one end standing up, atleast with a tight end close to the formation. So a 1 tech and a 3 tech DT. With the 3 tech to the passing strong side.

Now we had Hightower as a linebacker in nickel. But when Collins is back I think Hightower might take some snaps from Ninkovich here.

mayoclinic said:

More like most vocal, rather than first. But thanks.



It is indeed interesting, and I don't know the answer. I've been saying for a long time that Dont'a Hightower and Chandler Jones were incongruous picks in the same round of the same draft, but I'm having to take that back given the apparent current direction of the defense - they both fit fairly well if you consider the overall master plan. Someone like Lavonte David fits tremendously in the sub and in some 4-3 fronts, but not as a 3-4 OLB, and he's severely undersized as a 3-4 ILB. I'm not sure whether Ryan Shazier would fit, either. It's possible that BB could have used either of those guys as a LB/S hybrid (Shaq Thompson), but doubtful that either would fit well as a LB in the base. Jamie Collins, OTOH, is a guy who has the size, athleticism and skill set to thrive in both base and sub packages.

My best guess - and it's purely a guess - is that BB is going to favor guys with versatility to play in 3-4 and 4-3 hybrid base fronts and in sub packages. I agree with you, I kind of doubt that we'll see many under-240# LBs except as a LB/S hybrid, but I could see him jumping all over a guy like Bernardrick McKinney. LB depth is a key, and I think that McKinney could be a terrific rotational player along with Collins and Mayo, and could play outside as well as inside.

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Mckinney is certainly interesting in that he has the size, athleticism and like Hightower and collins, the versatility to play inside and out. Instinct says that BB would be all over someone like Shaq Thompson but I really wonder whether he'll get the snaps to justify an early round pick. He's probably not good enough in coverage to be an every down safety and not big enough to be an every down linebacker and the fairly limited snaps of the nickel safety probably doesn't warrant a first round pick. But in every other respect Thompson is an ideal fit. I certainly think McKinney is a real good option. Not a fan of the depth at linebacker this year so far (I like Eric Kendricks of UCLA too).

Edit:

Just noticed your final sentence:

and could play outside as well as inside.

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I honestly hadn't seen that, or it hadn't sunk in when I wrote:

the versatility to play inside and out

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Great minds Mayo.

manxman2601 said:

Mckinney is certainly interesting in that he has the size, athleticism and like Hightower and collins, the versatility to play inside and out.

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McKinney has moved much higher on my interest list than he was a few months ago. He seems a bit like a cross between Kiko Alonso and Jamie Collins. Really interesting prospect for the way the defense seems to be heading.

manxman2601 said:

Instinct says that BB would be all over someone like Shaq Thompson but I really wonder whether he'll get the snaps to justify an early round pick. He's probably not good enough in coverage to be an every down safety and not big enough to be an every down linebacker and the fairly limited snaps of the nickel safety probably doesn't warrant a first round pick. But in every other respect Thompson is an ideal fit.

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Thompson has been on my short list for 6+ months, but I agree it's not entirely clear where he fits, or that he will justify the Pats using as high a pick as would be needed to get him. With Ryan Shazier's success I suspect he goes fairly high, especially if he does well at the Combine (and he reportedly did very well at Washington's internal "combine" event last Spring).

mayoclinic said:

On a different theme which has been discussed on the main board, Nate Ebner played 13 or 14 snaps in the dime against Minnesota, and the dime was very effective. BB was unusually effusive about Ebner:



http://itiswhatitis.weei.com/sports...ld-expect-to-see-more-and-more-of-nate-ebner/

It's a long shot, but the 6' 210# Ebner certainly has the raw physical tools and athleticism (4.53 40, 6.59 3C, 39" VJ, 10'8" BJ) to excel as a safety. Better measurables than what Kenny Vaccaro had in 2013. It's a long shot, but if Ebner can seize a role in the defense it could be a real bonus. Some possibilities:

1. Continue as the dime DB.
2. Play a "star" LB/S role in big nickel packages.
3. Become an every day starter.

#3 is a long shot, but the first 2 aren't that unrealistic. Definitely a story line to watch this year.

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Oliver Thomas analyzes Nate Ebner's role against Minnesota:

http://www.nepatriotsdraft.com/2014...into-hybrid-linebacker-role-for-patriots.html

mayoclinic said:

On a different theme which has been discussed on the main board, Nate Ebner played 13 or 14 snaps in the dime against Minnesota, and the dime was very effective. BB was unusually effusive about Ebner:

http://itiswhatitis.weei.com/sports...ld-expect-to-see-more-and-more-of-nate-ebner/

It's a long shot, but the 6' 210# Ebner certainly has the raw physical tools and athleticism (4.53 40, 6.59 3C, 39" VJ, 10'8" BJ) to excel as a safety. Better measurables than what Kenny Vaccaro had in 2013. It's a long shot, but if Ebner can seize a role in the defense it could be a real bonus. Some possibilities:

1. Continue as the dime DB.
2. Play a "star" LB/S role in big nickel packages.
3. Become an every day starter.

#3 is a long shot, but the first 2 aren't that unrealistic. Definitely a story line to watch this year.

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With Brandon Browner returning in a couple of weeks, there's been some discussion about how he will fit in on the main board. Despite my initial thought that Brandon could be our "Kam Chancellor", I agree with others that he is probably better suited to line up as a press-man CB than playing a safety role. I think he'll be our enforcer and give the secondary a physical presence, but not as a safety. I'm personally hoping that Browner's return will limit Pat Chung's snaps (though Chung has not been as bad as I had thought), with Logan Ryan playing a hybrid CB/S role and Ebner continuing as a dime LB/S. I still think that Ebner has the most upside in this role, and has shown nice development.

At this point I think we will probably see 3 main defensive sets from the pass:

1. A 4-2-5 "sub" as the most frequent set, about 60% of the time. I'd like to see the Revis, Browner, Dennard, McCourty and Ryan on the field most of the time in this set. Dominique Easley will thrive in this set, and in the "dime" (see below).

2. A hybrid front 3-4/4-3 "base" about 30% of the time. This will also morph into 5-2, 2-4 and semi-ameboid fronts at times depending on how many players are standing up and moving around prior to the snap. Easley either won't be on the field in this set, or he'll be playing as either a 5-tech or occasionally as the 0/1-tech.

3. A 4-1-6 or 3-2-6 "dime" about 10% of the time, with Ebner/Chung/Wilson as a LB/S. Ebner seems the most promising to me.

As Browner comes back and Easley develops, this will be fun to watch.

manxman2601 said:

Instinct says that BB would be all over someone like Shaq Thompson but I really wonder whether he'll get the snaps to justify an early round pick. He's probably not good enough in coverage to be an every down safety and not big enough to be an every down linebacker and the fairly limited snaps of the nickel safety probably doesn't warrant a first round pick. But in every other respect Thompson is an ideal fit.

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I love Thompson, but I really think that Nate Ebner can develop to fill that LB/S role that we've all wanted so badly.

Ebner looks MUCH bigger than his listed 210# to me in the film that I've seen recently. For example:

http://www.gfycat.com/RecklessCelebratedGlowworm

I'm guessing he's in the 220-230# range. If that's the case, assuming that he has put on muscle and hasn't sacrificed his athleticism, you would have a player comparable in raw athleticism to Shaq Thompson, Ryan Shazier and Kevin Pierre-Louis:

- KPL: 6' 0 1/2" 232#; 4.46 40, 1.56 10-split, 4.02 SS, 6.92 3C; 39" VJ, 10'8" BJ
- Thompson: 6' 1 5/8" 231#; 3.99 3C and 6.57 SS unofficially reported at Washington's internal spring "Combine"; results not posted for VJ and BJ, but they were less than 36" and 10' 2.5" since they didn't make the top 5 reported numbers.
- Shazier: 6' 1 1/8" 237#; 4.38 40, 1.56 10-split, 4.21 SS, 6.91 3C; 42" VJ, 10' 10" BJ
- Ebner: 6' 0" 220-230# (projected); 4.53 40, 1.56 10-split, 4.04 SS, 6.59 3C; 39" VJ, 10'8" BJ

http://blog.thenewstribune.com/uwsports/2014/05/20/results-from-husky-combine/

Ebner has good movement in space from his rugby days, and is a devastating tackler. He may never become a full-time player, but I think he could excel as a LB/S in dime and big nickel formations, and wouldn't cost a 1st round draft pick like Shazier and (likely) Thompson.

The best 4-2-5 combo upon Browner's re-acclimation could be:

Chandler J - Wilfork/Siliga - Easley/Chris J - Hightower/Ninko
Collins - Mayo
Revis - Dennard/Arrington - Browner
Ryan - McCourty

This personnel should keep us within shouting distance during most games.
The offense needs to help by at the very least converting on 3rd/short. What happened
in Minnesota is unacceptable.

captain stone said:

The best 4-2-5 combo upon Browner's re-acclimation could be:

Chandler J - Wilfork/Siliga - Easley/Chris J - Hightower/Ninko
Collins - Mayo
Revis - Dennard/Arrington - Browner
Ryan - McCourty

This personnel should keep us within shouting distance during most games.
The offense needs to help by at the very least converting on 3rd/short. What happened
in Minnesota is unacceptable.

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I agree. However, I think that IF Ebner develops, you could also see a "big nickel" base at times with Ebner playing the star/stud hybrid LB/S position like Ellis Johnson runs as a base at Auburn (see posts 935 and 937 above). Instead of Ryan and McCourty as the safeties, you would have McCourty and Ebner as a LB/S. Obviously, Ebner is not the player Ryan is right now and is a different style player, but if he continues to develop it could be something that is used at times.

I was also looking back through this thread. Post 926 caught my eye. I think it gives some idea of where we seem to be heading.

BB on Dominique Easley's development:

Easley has come along slowly, rotating in on the defensive line and filling a variety of roles. He played 26 snaps in the first week, well behind Vince Wilfork (57) and Sealver Siliga (48). He narrowed the gap considerably last Sunday, playing 30 snaps to the 39 that both Wilfork and Siliga played.

“We used him in a number of different roles, anywhere from on the center to all the way on the end of the line,” Patriots coach Bill Belichick said. “He’s played a lot of different spots along the front.

“He’s come on quickly considering the fact that he missed the amount of on-field time early,” Belichick said. “There was probably a time when we would have been optimistic to really get him into the real flow of things maybe by midseason, but it’s happened a lot quicker than that. That’s a credit to him. He’s a very hard worker. He really works hard, and he’s smart. It’s a good combination.”

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http://www.providencejournal.com/sp...19-dominique-easley-still-making-progress.ece

Remmeber Ebner is basicly only in hes second year, the first he had to use learning football. BB always talking about the second-year leap and i doubt its random that Ebner blossom this year. And i really think Ebner as the strong tackler, is a match for the "spur" role. Atleast we gonna confirm it later this year, when Patriots play against more pass happy teams.

IF and it is still a IF Ebner keep progressing in that roll and McCourty is resigned longterm, then i really dont see a need for a safety pick in 15. Could we go in toward a draft without a need at DB ?

Luxusdk said:

Remmeber Ebner is basicly only in hes second year, the first he had to use learning football. BB always talking about the second-year leap and i doubt its random that Ebner blossom this year. And i really think Ebner as the strong tackler, is a match for the "spur" role. Atleast we gonna confirm it later this year, when Patriots play against more pass happy teams.

IF and it is still a IF Ebner keep progressing in that roll and McCourty is resigned longterm, then i really dont see a need for a safety pick in 15. Could we go in toward a draft without a need at DB ?

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Way too early to say, but wouldn't that be lovely!

My hope right now would be for Logan Ryan to play a hybrid CB/S role and play opposite McCourty when we play a cover 2 kind of scheme, Brandon Browner to occasionally drop down into a robber role, and Ebner to develop into a LB/S who can play in the dime and big nickel, and the spur role at times.

Right now my favorite potential 1st round defensive players for the Pats are (in no particular order):

- DE Shawn Oakman, Baylor. 6'8" 285#.
- DE/DT Arik Armstead, Oregon. 6'7" 290#.
- DT/DE Eddie Goldman, Florida St. 6'4" 315#.
- DE/OLB Dante Fowler, Florida. 6'3" 270#.
- LB Bernardrick McKinney, Mississippi St. 6' 4 1/2" 250#.

Potential day 3 defensive guys who are intriguing to me right now include:

- DT Jordan Phillips, Oklahoma. 6'6" 340# (doubt he'll last to day 3, though).
- DE/DT Henry Anderson, Stafnord. 6'6" 295#.
- ILB Stephone Anthony, Clemson. 6'2" 245#.
- DE/OLB Shaquille Riddick, West Virginia. 6'5" 242#.
- SS Jaquiski Tartt, Stamford. 6'1" 218#.
- CB DeShazor Everett, Texas A&M. 5'11" 188#.
- DB Detrick Bonner, Virginia Tech. 6' 200#.
- DB Justin Cox, Mississippi St. 6'2" 200#.

Like many, I'm assuming Mayo is lost for the second season in a row, though nothing has been formally announced at this point. That raises a number of possibilities for both this season and 2015:

2014:

Possible short-term options include:

- Keep things as is but use Deontae Skinner in the base, and then Hightower/Collins as the LBs when in sub. Promote Darius Fleming or fill in with another body.
- Move Ninkovich to MLB and keep Hightower and Collins where they are, and make Dominique Easley your base RDE, moving him inside in sub.
- Move Ninkovich to MLB and trade for a base DE. Derrick Morgan (Tennessee), William Gholston (TB) and Da'Quan Bowers (TB) come to mind as possibilities on losing teams who may be inclined to deal. Morgan and Bowers are in contract years.

2015:

Unless the Pats trade for a DE, Mayo's injury highlights the concerns over depth at DE and LB. While I'm still firmly in the Brandon Scherff camp if he is available anywhere near where we pick, imagine if we had a player like Dante Fowler or Bernardrick McKinney on the roster. Tremendous depth and flexibility options in addition to our existing personnel. The Mayo injury highlights that you can't have too many quality versatile defenders, and drafting based on a projection about where someone will likely fit may not be the most accurate way to go.

As an aside, the Aaron Lynch pick is paying big dividends for the 49ers right now with Aldon Smith out.

A guy whom I figured would re-up with his team is G. McCoy - DT - TB. He really praised us last year when we scrimmaged them. Has ripped the Bucs for getting blown out after yesterday's fiasco. Would cost some $$$. But, allows you to spend more draft picks on offense. That active, under DT we could really use.