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The TE is clearly to the left side of the offensive formation in the first pre-snap image. Are you indicating that the Pats D is responding to the two wide receivers on the right side of the offensive formation as an indication of line strength?
There are 2 receivers on the defensive left, that is how they are determining strong.
 
I have a question: I've seen it posted everywhere that our scheme primarily didn't change between week 1 and 2, but that the biggest diff was what the O chose to be the strong side vs weak side...

So my question is, why wouldn't an O purposefully make the strong side be on jones side rather than ninks do that jones has to go into a 3 pt stance playing 5 tech, which seems to limit him as a pass rusher? (Compared to when he is in a 2 pt more OLB role)

Seems to me this way the opposing offense gets to decide what our defenders do, and minimize their impact?
I think you mean make Jones the weak side, because thats when he is in 5 Tech.
The answer? Because you have him in a 5 tech and Hightower in a 7.
Good luck with that.
Plus remember, this is only base defense, which we ran 21 times last week.
 
It functionally might as well be a 4-3, since whether Jones is in a two point or three point stance is mostly trivial. As such, it's a great example of how the 4-3 vs. 3-4 doesn't necessarily tell you much about each player's assignment. But it's three down linemen and four linebackers: that's the definition of a 3-4.
Yes, gotta watch the other 3 LBs to know if its 34 or 43 principles, not whether a DE/OLB is standing or not.
 
It functionally might as well be a 4-3, since whether Jones is in a two point or three point stance is mostly trivial. As such, it's a great example of how the 4-3 vs. 3-4 doesn't necessarily tell you much about each player's assignment. But it's three down linemen and four linebackers: that's the definition of a 3-4.

Yes, we are technically playing a 3-4. But as andy says, it really operates as a 4-3 since the linebackers are inside the DE/OLB's. The difference is whether one of the DE/OLB's puts his hand down. I think that we are all in agreement here.

In either case, the team is playing two DTs (290-350 pounds), two DE/OLB's and three LB's inside the DE/OLB's. I don't think it makes much difference whether we call this a 3-4 or 4-3.

What do NOT play as a base formation is one where we have 3 DL's who are 290 or more, 2 OLB's outside, with 2 LB's inside. To me, this is the "true" 3-4. I would add that when the patriots played this formation, it was also a 2 gap, rather than a hybrid 1 and 2 gap across the line.

The difference in the base is whether we play a 3rd 300 pound lineman or a 3rd 255-265 linebacker inside the DE/OLB's.

Please correct. I think that we are all on the same page.
 
There are 2 receivers on the defensive left, that is how they are determining strong.

This would seem to be a good way to attack the Pats - put a TE over Hightower and get Ninkovich split out wide away from the action. That weakens the run defense and puts Ninkovich in a position where he has to cover or rush from a long way away. (Or turn it around and do the same with Hightower, but for all the belly-aching over his coverage skills, he still is better at it than Nink and faster to close if he were to blitz from out wide.)
 
Yes, we are technically playing a 3-4. But as andy says, it really operates as a 4-3 since the linebackers are inside the DE/OLB's. The difference is whether one of the DE/OLB's puts his hand down. I think that we are all in agreement here.
To clarify, in the play he gave the screen shot of, we were in 43. That was one of maybe 5 times all day.
When we are in 34 Hightower is outside the WDE.

In either case, the team is playing two DTs (290-350 pounds), two DE/OLB's and three LB's inside the DE/OLB's. I don't think it makes much difference whether we call this a 3-4 or 4-3.
Agreed

What do NOT play as a base formation is one where we have 3 DL's who are 290 or more, 2 OLB's outside, with 2 LB's inside. To me, this is the "true" 3-4. I would add that when the patriots played this formation, it was also a 2 gap, rather than a hybrid 1 and 2 gap across the line.

The difference in the base is whether we play a 3rd 300 pound lineman or a 3rd 255-265 linebacker inside the DE/OLB's.

Please correct. I think that we are all on the same page.
Agree again.
 
This would seem to be a good way to attack the Pats - put a TE over Hightower and get Ninkovich split out wide away from the action. That weakens the run defense and puts Ninkovich in a position where he has to cover or rush from a long way away. (Or turn it around and do the same with Hightower, but for all the belly-aching over his coverage skills, he still is better at it than Nink and faster to close if he were to blitz from out wide.)
Nink has the edge in that screen shot and would be fine on a run his way.
So far HT has been on the weak side in the base, so unless you motion and shift, which of course you can do, he won't have a TE on him, Jones or Nink would.
Its not common that we split the OLB as far as Nink is there. It was either a special coverage where he jammed the slot, or he may have closed down before the snap.
 
I appreciate all the breakdowns of our D you guys put out there but in the end it's all about making plays...no matter what defense they play. Last game they MADE the plays necessary to get a win. Every week there will be tweaks and nuances that foster these discussions, but what I WANT as a fan is impact plays.

Last night Philly lost a starting LB, I'm sure you all saw it. Their sub got beat like a crippled turtle almost at will the rest of the game. Ended up it didn't matter because the Indy D failed to MAKE PLAYS to stop the Eagles O. Do your job and take care of YOUR responsibilities and a Sproles doesn't break your back in the 4th quarter. It always comes down to basic, simple playmaking.
 
Yes, gotta watch the other 3 LBs to know if its 34 or 43 principles, not whether a DE/OLB is standing or not.

To clarify, in the play he gave the screen shot of, we were in 43. That was one of maybe 5 times all day.
When we are in 34 Hightower is outside the WDE.

I agree that the assignments were consistent with what you'd generally see from a 4-3, but that's a separate issue. It's kinda fluid since Ninkovich and Jones are both played as DEs and OLBs, but personnel groupings and assignments are two separate questions with separate answers. In the screenshots that I posted, there were 3 down linemen, which, by definition, means that it wasn't a 4-3.

Now if you want to argue that it functionally might as well be a 4-3--as evidenced by the fact that Jones switched from a two point stance to a three point stance, and then back to a two point stance--I totally agree there. I think it's a great example of why the 3-4 vs. 4-3 debate is overblown. As long as Chandler Jones is playing on the outside edge of the formation, I'm happy.
 
Here's another one, and I'm going to title it "why Deonte Skinner sucks". This was actually the play immediately after the one I previously posted (third play from scrimmage of the game):

cHZAJi1.png

3rd and 10, the Vikings have 11 personnel out on the field, trips right with their tight end (Rudolph) lined up left.

Pats are in a nickel formation. Technically 3-3, but much like in the last play, one of the OLBs (Hightower, in this case), is right up on the LOS, while the other OLB is inside the DE, making this for all intents and purposes four down linemen. Ninkovich is the SDE (7 technique), Easley is NT (0 technique), and Jones is the WDE (also 7 technique).

Revis is matched up on Jennings in the inside slot, Kyle Arrington on Jarius Wright, and Logan Ryan on Cordarelle Patterson out wide. The safeties aren't in the frame here, but Harmon is on the strong side and McCourty is on the weak side.

For the LBs, Mayo is lined up on the strong side inside Ninkovich, Skinner is on the weak side, and Hightower is up on the LOS on the weak side. To be totally honest, I think Cassel identified exactly which mismatch he wanted at the LOS, and this is probably what Norv was scheming for in the first place. Deonte Skinner can't cover Kyle Rudolph. Based on what we saw, in fact, I'd be willing to bet that Deonte Skinner can't cover anybody.

oTWf1Tc.png

Pats send 4: the three down linemen, plus Mayo. Hightower initially shows blitz, but drops back to cover the RB coming out of the backfield.

wWxPm2G.png

Kalil (Vikings LT) seems like he might be lost here. It looks like he was initially going to block Hightower, who was briefly engaged by Rudolph before Rudolph released into a shallow crossing pattern. But with Hightower rolling out to cover the RB, there's nothing for Kalil to do except try belatedly to double Chandler Jones. But he's too late: see how easily and quickly Jones splits that double team here. Against a lesser athlete, Kalil might've been able to recover and afect hte play, but Jones is just too strong and too quick; he's already blown past the LG by the time Kalil commits to helping.

Also note that Easley has steered the center outside to the right, opening up the left side A gap for Mayo. This leaves Mayo unblocked as he rushes the QB up the middle while the Vikings' RG (Brandon Fusco) stands around with nothing to do.

More ominously, note that Rudolph already has a full step on Skinner, even after chipping Hightower, while both inside receivers are crossing to the weak side and Patterson is running what looks like a post route (kinda hard to tell on the TV feed). The effect of all of this is that it clears the secondary out from the strong side and creates room down the right sideline for Rudolph to run.

b2yoGfG.png

A few things to notice here. First, as the ball is leaving Cassel's hand, Mayo is already hitting him and Jones is a half-step away. Just a great job by Cassel standing in there and delivering a perfect throw.

Second, notice how wide open Kyle Rudolph already is. Skinner is going over Wright/Arrington, and he's a solid step and a half behind Rudolph. Keep in mind, Rudolph is anything but a speedster. Coming out of college, he was basically billed as a poor man's Gronk: same size, but significantly less explosive and just generally slower. Rudolph is a good player, but it's really inexcusable that a starting LB would be so overmatched in this situation.

cMMhujx.png


Rudolph catches the ball with a vast expanse of open field in front of him. This is what the trips formation was for (pulling the strong side defense upfield), and Rudolph has beaten Skinner so thoroughly that Skinner is effectively a nonentity on this play.

dqWGUIu.png


Skinner flails helplessly at Rudolph 2 yards past the first down marker, while Harmon comes up to limit the gain to 15=20 yards or so. Rudolph steps out of bounds moments after this screenshot while absorbing a hit from Harmon.

All in all, I think this play is really illustrative as well, for several reasons:
  1. Norv Turner is a really good OC. If you have one weak link on the field, he'll find a way to target that guy and beat him for big gains. Deonte Skinner was obviously our weak link.
  2. If Jamie Collins is on the field, that 3rd down conversion never happens. Or doesn't happen the way that it did, at least. Assuming that the Vikings call the same play there--which I doubt they would, because Turner is too smart to target Jamie Collins in coverage--Collins beats Rudolph to the sideline and forces him out of bounds long before the marker for a three and out.
  3. Shame on the Patriots for putting themselves in a position where they were one injury away from Skinner starting. I just can't accept that this was a reasonable gamble that they took in their roster construction. It was reckless and unnecessary. And the LB corps had better get and stay healthy from here on out, because better teams will target the replacement LB a whole mot more effectively than Matt Cassel did.
  4. 10 guys executed the hell out of their assignments on that play. Jones, Easley, and Mayo, in particular, all executed well in a way that created a lot of pressure with a four man rush. But if one guy ****s up badly enough (or is too thoroughly overmatched), everyone else's work is for naught.
 
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Here's another one, and I'm going to title it "why Deonte Skinner sucks". This was actually the play immediately after the one I previously posted (third play from scrimmage of the game):

cHZAJi1.png

3rd and 10, the Vikings have 11 personnel out on the field, trips right with their tight end (Rudolph) lined up left.

Pats are in a nickel formation. Technically 3-3, but much like in the last play, one of the OLBs (Hightower, in this case), is right up on the LOS, while the other OLB is inside the DE, making this for all intents and purposes four down linemen. Ninkovich is the SDE (7 technique), Easley is NT (0 technique), and Jones is the WDE (also 7 technique).

Revis is matched up on Jennings in the inside slot, Kyle Arrington on Jarius Wright, and Logan Ryan on Cordarelle Patterson out wide. The safeties aren't in the frame here, but Harmon is on the strong side and McCourty is on the weak side.

For the LBs, Mayo is lined up on the strong side inside Ninkovich, Skinner is on the weak side, and Hightower is up on the LOS on the weak side. To be totally honest, I think Cassel identified exactly which mismatch he wanted at the LOS, and this is probably what Norv was scheming for in the first place. Deonte Skinner can't cover Kyle Rudolph. Based on what we saw, in fact, I'd be willing to bet that Deonte Skinner can't cover anybody.

oTWf1Tc.png

Pats send 4: the three down linemen, plus Mayo. Hightower initially shows blitz, but drops back to cover the RB coming out of the backfield.

wWxPm2G.png

Kalil (Vikings LT) seems like he might be lost here. It looks like he was initially going to block Hightower, who was briefly engaged by Rudolph before Rudolph released into a shallow crossing pattern. But with Hightower rolling out to cover the RB, there's nothing for Kalil to do except try belatedly to double Chandler Jones. But he's too late: see how easily and quickly Jones splits that double team here. Against a lesser athlete, Kalil might've been able to recover and afect hte play, but Jones is just too strong and too quick; he's already blown past the LG by the time Kalil commits to helping.

Also note that Easley has steered the center outside to the right, opening up the left side A gap for Mayo. This leaves Mayo unblocked as he rushes the QB up the middle while the Vikings' RG (Brandon Fusco) stands around with nothing to do.

More ominously, note that Rudolph already has a full step on Skinner while both inside receivers are crossing to the weak side and Patterson is running what looks like a post route (kinda hard to tell on the TV feed), all in an effort to clear the secondary out from the strong side and create room down the right sideline for Rudolph to run.

b2yoGfG.png

A few things to notice here. First, as the ball is leaving Cassel's hand, Mayo is already hitting him and Jones is a half-step away. Just a great job by Cassel standing in there and delivering a perfect throw.

Second, notice how wide open Kyle Rudolph already is. Skinner is going over Wright/Arrington, and he's a solid step and a half behind Rudolph. Keep in mind, Rudolph is anything but a speedster. Coming out of college, he was basically billed as a poor man's Gronk: same size, but significantly less explosive and just generally slower. Rudolph is a good player, but it's really inexcusable that a starting LB would be so overmatched in this situation.

cMMhujx.png


Rudolph catches the ball with a vast expanse of open field in front of him. This is what the trips formation was for (pulling the strong side defense upfield), and Rudolph has beaten Skinner so thoroughly that Skinner is effectively a nonentity on this play.

dqWGUIu.png


Skinner flails helplessly at Rudolph 2 yards past the first down marker, while Harmon comes up to limit the gain to 15=20 yards or so. Rudolph steps out of bounds moments after this screenshot while absorbing a hit from Harmon.

All in all, I think this play is really illustrative as well, for several reasons:
  1. Norv Turner is a really good OC. If you have one weak link on the field, he'll find a way to target that guy and beat him for big gains. Deonte Skinner was obviously our weak link.
  2. If Jamie Collins is on the field, that 3rd down conversion never happens. Or doesn't happen the way that it did, at least. Assuming that the Vikings call the same play there--which I doubt they would, because Turner is too smart to target Jamie Collins in coverage--Collins beats Rudolph to the sideline and forces him out of bounds long before the marker for a three and out.
  3. Shame on the Patriots for putting themselves in a position where they were one injury away from Skinner starting. I just can't accept that this was a reasonable gamble that they took in their roster construction. It was reckless and unnecessary. And the LB corps had better get and stay healthy from here on out, because better teams will target the replacement LB a whole mot more effectively than Matt Cassel did.
  4. 10 guys executed the hell out of their assignments on that play. Jones, Easley, and Mayo, in particular, all executed well in a way that created a lot of pressure with a four man rush. But if one guy ****s up badly enough (or is too thoroughly overmatched), everyone else's work is for naught.

That play describes perfectly well why looking at stats without the context of the actual play is so pointless. Even though 90% of the team execute perfectly, all that will show up on the stats sheet is a 3rd down conversion for the Vikings.

Once again great work describing everything. I wonder, was it really just lacking athleticism why Skinner was beat or did he lose the matchup already by bad positioning ? Did it just take to much time for him to read the situation (hesitation) ?
 
That play describes perfectly well why looking at stats without the context of the actual play is so pointless. Even though 90% of the team execute perfectly, all that will show up on the stats sheet is a 3rd down conversion for the Vikings.

Once again great work describing everything. I wonder, was it really just lacking athleticism why Skinner was beat or did he lose the matchup already by bad positioning ? Did it just take to much time for him to read the situation (hesitation) ?

Hard to say, though my first inclination is to just blame it on a lack of athleticism. There's a certain level of slowness where you're just always going to be beat on shallow crosses. Check this out:

JTk79js.png


At this point, Rudolph has already basically chipped Hightower and made his cut to begin his route. At the same time, Skinner hasn't broken inside at all.

It's tough to call out his play recognition there, though. A better athlete (ex: Jamie Collins) could recover from that and stop Rudolph before the first down. To stop that play, Skinner would have to bite pretty hard on it to compensate for his lack of athleticism, which would leave him extremely vulnerable to a double move. If he bites and Rudolph goes down the seam, Rudolph gets gets the first down, and potentially a lot more if he can break McCourty's tackle.

The only real fix (without changing his assignment, which is the real answer: Skinner should never be put in this situation) would be lining up further inside, which is a no-gobecause it creates a lot of open space for the RB or the TE to exploit if they run routes to that side of the field.

So based on that, I think it's just a matter of Skinner being too slow. He's Spikes' successor more than just in number. Like Spikes, opposing offenses will target him in the passing game whenever he's on the field, and they'll try to make him chase a TE or RB horizontally. Whenever they succeed in doing that, they're virtually guaranteed a first down.

The old adage is that speed kills, and I think that's way more true for defenses than offenses. Over at Grantland, Bill Barnwell evaluated the overall speed of all of the offenses in the league, and concluded that the Pats, Saints, and Broncos had three of the slowest offenses in the league last year. Speed is nice on offense, but precision, size and power are the real killers. It's defense where speed really breaks gameplans and allows you to do a ton of things that you culdn't otherwise do. Collins, Jones and McCourty are prototypical examples of that.
 
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People frequently say we go as the offense goes, a dominant defense will get this franchise a 4th ring...we are as close now as we have been in a while, but it is still way too early to make any sort of conclusion...the arrow definitely seems to be point up through!
 
Here's another one, and I'm going to title it "why Deonte Skinner sucks". This was actually the play immediately after the one I previously posted (third play from scrimmage of the game):

cHZAJi1.png

3rd and 10, the Vikings have 11 personnel out on the field, trips right with their tight end (Rudolph) lined up left.

Pats are in a nickel formation. Technically 3-3, but much like in the last play, one of the OLBs (Hightower, in this case), is right up on the LOS, while the other OLB is inside the DE, making this for all intents and purposes four down linemen. Ninkovich is the SDE (7 technique), Easley is NT (0 technique), and Jones is the WDE (also 7 technique).

Revis is matched up on Jennings in the inside slot, Kyle Arrington on Jarius Wright, and Logan Ryan on Cordarelle Patterson out wide. The safeties aren't in the frame here, but Harmon is on the strong side and McCourty is on the weak side.

For the LBs, Mayo is lined up on the strong side inside Ninkovich, Skinner is on the weak side, and Hightower is up on the LOS on the weak side. To be totally honest, I think Cassel identified exactly which mismatch he wanted at the LOS, and this is probably what Norv was scheming for in the first place. Deonte Skinner can't cover Kyle Rudolph. Based on what we saw, in fact, I'd be willing to bet that Deonte Skinner can't cover anybody.

oTWf1Tc.png

Pats send 4: the three down linemen, plus Mayo. Hightower initially shows blitz, but drops back to cover the RB coming out of the backfield.

wWxPm2G.png

Kalil (Vikings LT) seems like he might be lost here. It looks like he was initially going to block Hightower, who was briefly engaged by Rudolph before Rudolph released into a shallow crossing pattern. But with Hightower rolling out to cover the RB, there's nothing for Kalil to do except try belatedly to double Chandler Jones. But he's too late: see how easily and quickly Jones splits that double team here. Against a lesser athlete, Kalil might've been able to recover and afect hte play, but Jones is just too strong and too quick; he's already blown past the LG by the time Kalil commits to helping.

Also note that Easley has steered the center outside to the right, opening up the left side A gap for Mayo. This leaves Mayo unblocked as he rushes the QB up the middle while the Vikings' RG (Brandon Fusco) stands around with nothing to do.

More ominously, note that Rudolph already has a full step on Skinner, even after chipping Hightower, while both inside receivers are crossing to the weak side and Patterson is running what looks like a post route (kinda hard to tell on the TV feed). The effect of all of this is that it clears the secondary out from the strong side and creates room down the right sideline for Rudolph to run.

b2yoGfG.png

A few things to notice here. First, as the ball is leaving Cassel's hand, Mayo is already hitting him and Jones is a half-step away. Just a great job by Cassel standing in there and delivering a perfect throw.

Second, notice how wide open Kyle Rudolph already is. Skinner is going over Wright/Arrington, and he's a solid step and a half behind Rudolph. Keep in mind, Rudolph is anything but a speedster. Coming out of college, he was basically billed as a poor man's Gronk: same size, but significantly less explosive and just generally slower. Rudolph is a good player, but it's really inexcusable that a starting LB would be so overmatched in this situation.

cMMhujx.png


Rudolph catches the ball with a vast expanse of open field in front of him. This is what the trips formation was for (pulling the strong side defense upfield), and Rudolph has beaten Skinner so thoroughly that Skinner is effectively a nonentity on this play.

dqWGUIu.png


Skinner flails helplessly at Rudolph 2 yards past the first down marker, while Harmon comes up to limit the gain to 15=20 yards or so. Rudolph steps out of bounds moments after this screenshot while absorbing a hit from Harmon.

All in all, I think this play is really illustrative as well, for several reasons:


    • Norv Turner is a really good OC. If you have one weak link on the field, he'll find a way to target that guy and beat him for big gains. Deonte Skinner was obviously our weak link.
    • If Jamie Collins is on the field, that 3rd down conversion never happens. Or doesn't happen the way that it did, at least. Assuming that the Vikings call the same play there--which I doubt they would, because Turner is too smart to target Jamie Collins in coverage--Collins beats Rudolph to the sideline and forces him out of bounds long before the marker for a three and out.
    • Shame on the Patriots for putting themselves in a position where they were one injury away from Skinner starting. I just can't accept that this was a reasonable gamble that they took in their roster construction. It was reckless and unnecessary. And the LB corps had better get and stay healthy from here on out, because better teams will target the replacement LB a whole mot more effectively than Matt Cassel did.
    • 10 guys executed the hell out of their assignments on that play. Jones, Easley, and Mayo, in particular, all executed well in a way that created a lot of pressure with a four man rush. But if one guy ****s up badly enough (or is too thoroughly overmatched), everyone else's work is for naught.


I would question the coaching decision to have Skinner on the field in a sub package on 3rd down.
 
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Ninkovich only played 35/74 snaps in week 1, as opposed to 68/68 in week 2. Is that because he was taken off the field in sub packages? If so, that may have been a mistake ...

I would question the coaching decision to have Skinner on the field in a sub package on 3rd down.

I would question the decision to have Skinner on the field at all, ever, but especially in a sub package on third down. Honestly, I would've rather seen Tavon Wilson out there, regardless of how much size he gives up. At least he won't make 3rd and 10s quite so easy to convert.
 
I would question the decision to have Skinner on the field at all, ever, but especially in a sub package on third down. Honestly, I would've rather seen Tavon Wilson out there, regardless of how much size he gives up. At least he won't make 3rd and 10s quite so easy to convert.

The dime defense seemed to perform fairly well. Ebner as a LB/S in a "big nickel"?

I understand that BB is much more experienced and knowledgable than we all are, has better information at his disposal, etc. But I still can't figure out the logic of keeping - and playing - players like Skinner and Vellano (and to a lesser extent Wendell and Chung) who just seem to be major liabilities because they are overmatched physically. Some of these guys are like the proverbial itch that won't go away.
 
Or a big dime, as the case may be.

Has anyone identified a pattern to Wilson's snaps? He seems to be getting used in the nickel some, but I haven't noticed an obvious pattern.
 
I would question the decision to have Skinner on the field at all, ever, but especially in a sub package on third down. Honestly, I would've rather seen Tavon Wilson out there, regardless of how much size he gives up. At least he won't make 3rd and 10s quite so easy to convert.
I don't think that Skinner played in the sub package. With Collins out, there was little choice in the base.
 
I don't think that Skinner played in the sub package. With Collins out, there was little choice in the base.

He did in the first drive (see my earlier post with screenshots). He was the main culprit behind the Vikings' TD.
 
I don't think that Skinner played in the sub package. With Collins out, there was little choice in the base.

I didn't realize that he did either, until BradyFTW! broke it down in detail. See post #150 above.
 
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