A theory on Tom Brady's Deep Ball

NG Pats Fan · Sep 13, 2014

Here are my thoughts

1. His deep ball is better than most think it is. I have watched him throw in the air 55-70 yard strikes into the WR hands in the past 13 years that have resulted in game changing touchdowns.

Examples include
2001: 91 yard TD to David Patten. @ Indianapolis
2003: 58 Yard TD to Troy Brown. Home against Tennessee
2003: 71 Yard TD to Deion Branch. @ Denver
2003: 45 Yard TD to Bethel Johnson. AFC Divisional Tennessee
2003: 82 Yard TD to Troy Brown. Overtime @ Miami
2004: 60 yard TD to Deion Branch. AFC Championship @ Pittsburgh
2007: 55 Yard TD to Randy Moss. Opening Day @New York
2007: 66 Yard TD Randy Moss. Week 17 @ New York
2009: 65 Yard TD to Randy Moss. @ Indianapolis
2013: 81 Yard TD to Aaron Dobson @ Pittsburgh

I am probably missing a few.

Bottom line, the guy has made some incredible throws over 60 yards hitting the Wide Receiver in stride in some very important games.

What has gone wrong in the past 4 years? Lack of a Deep Threat at the WR position. The Patriots have not had a big,tall, fast, talented long armed Wide Receiver. Tom Brady has made some poor throws where he has missed wide receivers wide open, but most of these throws were to short, slow, short armed wide receivers. Guys like Edelman, Amendola, Thompkins, Slater...They are not deep threats. These guys lack key attributes to be deep threats(Size, Speed, Talent). If we were to go out and sign a Speedy Tall Talented WR, you will find bradys deep ball will connect a lot more often because the margin for error becomes smaller as the height/speed of the player increases.

I think the Patriots have lacked a Deep Threat for 4 years now, and it has been one of the reasons the patriots scored under 20 points in each of its past 3 playoff losses.

Mack Herron · Sep 13, 2014

NG Pats Fan said:
The Patriots have not had a big,tall, fast, talented long armed Wide Receiver.

Ahh, how I long for the days of the big, tall fast guys such as David Patten, Troy Brown, and Deion Branch....

NG Pats Fan · Sep 13, 2014

Mack Herron said:
Ahh, how I long for the days of the big, tall fast guys such as David Patten, Troy Brown, and Deion Branch....

Still living in the past? It's been 10 years since we have won a championship. It's time for a change. The NFL is changing.

jays52 · Sep 13, 2014

To throw an accurate ball downfield the quarterback must be able to plant his back foot and move through the throw. Hard to do that when your center is perpetually twerking at your feet a second after the snap.

Rob0729 · Sep 13, 2014

No offense, but you start a thread advocating that the Pats need to get a deep threat and go on to give examples of how Brady has thrown the deep ball to guys like Branch, Patten, and Troy Brown.

Deep threats unless they are elite are grossly overrated. The Pats need outside receivers (which they may have) but deep threats are overrated. The Pats have the fourth highest scoring offense in history without one and the Broncos are statistically the best offense of all time with a QB who couldn't and didn't throw the deep ball at all last year. Manning completed 10 passes all year over 30 yards and only one of them was over 40.

BTW, a lot of the examples you give were passes by Brady that were under 30 yards and the receiver ran the rest of the way for a TD.

NG Pats Fan · Sep 13, 2014

" BTW, a lot of the examples you give were passes by Brady that were under 30 yards and the receiver ran the rest of the way for a TD."

Like?

Bethel Johnson is the only one Ill give you. The rest were well over 30 yards.

james87654 · Sep 13, 2014

i wish we could have gotten a big WR who can snatch the ball even when he's covered.....like the two guys in chicago and many more......i like those types even better than the speedsters for us......we'll see what dobson becomes

brady doesnt have the best touch on vertical routes where he has to put arch on the ball and have the WR run under it

his arm strength is fine......its the lower body that goes as one ages.....and then that affects other things

Brady6 · Sep 13, 2014

The deep pass in general is heavily reliant on the WR making the play on the football. It is a flawed stat, when you consider Matt Ryan is throwing to Julio Jones, Andy Dalton is throwing to AJ Green, Matthew Stafford is throwing to Calvin Johnson, Aaron Rodgers is throwing to Jordy Nelson, Tony Romo is throwing to Dez Bryant, etc. and Tom Brady is throwing to Kenbrell Thompkins.

You also have to take into consideration the Patriots are a short passing team, they use the deep ball to keep the other team honest, so when Brady throws a deep passes he is not always attempting to complete it sometimes he is throwing it just to open up the field,

JR4 · Sep 13, 2014

NG Pats Fan said:
Here are my thoughts

1. His deep ball is better than most think it is. I have watched him throw in the air 55-70 yard strikes into the WR hands in the past 13 years that have resulted in game changing touchdowns.

Examples include
2001: 91 yard TD to David Patten. @ Indianapolis
2003: 58 Yard TD to Troy Brown. Home against Tennessee
2003: 71 Yard TD to Deion Branch. @ Denver
2003: 45 Yard TD to Bethel Johnson. AFC Divisional Tennessee
2003: 82 Yard TD to Troy Brown. Overtime @ Miami
2004: 60 yard TD to Deion Branch. AFC Championship @ Pittsburgh
2007: 55 Yard TD to Randy Moss. Opening Day @New York
2007: 66 Yard TD Randy Moss. Week 17 @ New York
2009: 65 Yard TD to Randy Moss. @ Indianapolis
2013: 81 Yard TD to Aaron Dobson @ Pittsburgh

I am probably missing a few.

Bottom line, the guy has made some incredible throws over 60 yards hitting the Wide Receiver in stride in some very important games.

What has gone wrong in the past 4 years? Lack of a Deep Threat at the WR position. The Patriots have not had a big,tall, fast, talented long armed Wide Receiver. Tom Brady has made some poor throws where he has missed wide receivers wide open, but most of these throws were to short, slow, short armed wide receivers. Guys like Edelman, Amendola, Thompkins, Slater...They are not deep threats. These guys lack key attributes to be deep threats(Size, Speed, Talent). If we were to go out and sign a Speedy Tall Talented WR, you will find bradys deep ball will connect a lot more often because the margin for error becomes smaller as the height/speed of the player increases.

I think the Patriots have lacked a Deep Threat for 4 years now, and it has been one of the reasons the patriots scored under 20 points in each of its past 3 playoff losses.

You must distinguish Air yards and Yards after catch. If you take Tom's Yards after catch away he is
a very mediocre passer.

"Tom Brady’s AIR YPA is 3.95, which puts him at 46th with Jon Kitna and Vince Young breathing down his neck."

Check out article on Yards after Catch for QB's in last 15 years or so.

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.co...r-yards-vs-yards-after-catch-1992-2012/23605/

Tom is not a great deep passer, period. He is a great QB in PATS system and he is great at making
WR's better than they really are in PATS system.

Brady_to_Moss · Sep 13, 2014

My theory? He's gotten older. His deep ball won't be getting better. It is what it is

hwc · Sep 13, 2014

JR4 said:
and he is great at making
WR's better than they really are in PATS system.

I'll take some of that, please...

Snake Eyes · Sep 13, 2014

Brady6 said:
You also have to take into consideration the Patriots are a short passing team, they use the deep ball to keep the other team honest, so when Brady throws a deep passes he is not always attempting to complete it sometimes he is throwing it just to open up the field,

Is this the cause or the effect?

If they had an O-line that could protect for longer and receivers up top the task I think you'd see more downfield throws. They emphasize the short game because they don't have the personnel for anything else.

RhodyPatriot · Sep 14, 2014

JR4 said:
You must distinguish Air yards and Yards after catch. If you take Tom's Yards after catch away he is
a very mediocre passer.

"Tom Brady’s AIR YPA is 3.95, which puts him at 46th with Jon Kitna and Vince Young breathing down his neck."

Check out article on Yards after Catch for QB's in last 15 years or so.

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.co...r-yards-vs-yards-after-catch-1992-2012/23605/

Tom is not a great deep passer, period. He is a great QB in PATS system and he is great at making
WR's better than they really are in PATS system.

Agree with the overall point here but one question.....what WR's has Brady made better??

If anything I would argue that Brady is too impatient and does not develop his young WR's.
Has he made Danny Amendola better?? Seems to me Thompkins has some real skills and should be more of an impact player in this offense than what we've seen. Whose fault is that??
Welker always had the talent. We Patriot fans knew who Wes Welker was when he played for the Dolphins. Guy was always making plays. Deion Branch had the talent. Did Brady make David Givens the clutch receiver he was?? No!! In fact guys like Givens, blue collar players who are reliable and clutch, are what this team is lacking.
If fans are going to give Brady credit for the "good WR's" then he deserves the criticism for not developing the guys who get labeled "bad WR's".
Can't have it both ways.

TBR · Sep 14, 2014

Theory - he hasn't had a true deep ball WR in 5 years

Theory - he no longer has enough room in the pocket to step up and throw the ball cleanly

Also, this:

jays52 said:
To throw an accurate ball downfield the quarterback must be able to plant his back foot and move through the throw. Hard to do that when your center is perpetually twerking at your feet a second after the snap.

PP2 · Sep 14, 2014

Brady_to_Moss said:
My theory? He's gotten older. His deep ball won't be getting better. It is what it is

Happens to every quarterback. Brady is no exception.

Franchise12 · Sep 14, 2014

NG Pats Fan said:
Here are my thoughts

1. His deep ball is better than most think it is. I have watched him throw in the air 55-70 yard strikes into the WR hands in the past 13 years that have resulted in game changing touchdowns.

Examples include
2001: 91 yard TD to David Patten. @ Indianapolis
2003: 58 Yard TD to Troy Brown. Home against Tennessee
2003: 71 Yard TD to Deion Branch. @ Denver
2003: 45 Yard TD to Bethel Johnson. AFC Divisional Tennessee
2003: 82 Yard TD to Troy Brown. Overtime @ Miami
2004: 60 yard TD to Deion Branch. AFC Championship @ Pittsburgh
2007: 55 Yard TD to Randy Moss. Opening Day @New York
2007: 66 Yard TD Randy Moss. Week 17 @ New York
2009: 65 Yard TD to Randy Moss. @ Indianapolis
2013: 81 Yard TD to Aaron Dobson @ Pittsburgh

I am probably missing a few.

Bottom line, the guy has made some incredible throws over 60 yards hitting the Wide Receiver in stride in some very important games.

What has gone wrong in the past 4 years? Lack of a Deep Threat at the WR position. The Patriots have not had a big,tall, fast, talented long armed Wide Receiver. Tom Brady has made some poor throws where he has missed wide receivers wide open, but most of these throws were to short, slow, short armed wide receivers. Guys like Edelman, Amendola, Thompkins, Slater...They are not deep threats. These guys lack key attributes to be deep threats(Size, Speed, Talent). If we were to go out and sign a Speedy Tall Talented WR, you will find bradys deep ball will connect a lot more often because the margin for error becomes smaller as the height/speed of the player increases.

I think the Patriots have lacked a Deep Threat for 4 years now, and it has been one of the reasons the patriots scored under 20 points in each of its past 3 playoff losses.

The problem with Toms deep ball is his personal philosophy on the deep ball. I remember him speaking on the matter a few years ago and saying that the preferred to slightly overthrow the deep ball to avoid turnovers as opposed to other qbs who attempt to drop the ball right into the bucket. He certainly has the arm strength but he purposefully lacks the touch to put it on the spot because of fear of turnovers. Even rookie Jimmy Garoppolo opts to put more touch on his deep ball and we saw how damn near every ball landed in the hands of his reciever. Tom just needs to change his philosophy.

PatsFanInVa · Sep 14, 2014

RhodyPatriot said:
Agree with the overall point here but one question.....what WR's has Brady made better??

If anything I would argue that Brady is too impatient and does not develop his young WR's.
Has he made Danny Amendola better?? Seems to me Thompkins has some real skills and should be more of an impact player in this offense than what we've seen. Whose fault is that??
Welker always had the talent. We Patriot fans knew who Wes Welker was when he played for the Dolphins. Guy was always making plays. Deion Branch had the talent. Did Brady make David Givens the clutch receiver he was?? No!! In fact guys like Givens, blue collar players who are reliable and clutch, are what this team is lacking.
If fans are going to give Brady credit for the "good WR's" then he deserves the criticism for not developing the guys who get labeled "bad WR's".
Can't have it both ways.

Ask not what Brady/the Pats have done for these receivers, but what they have done without the Pats.

Make your case that Deion Branch really turned it on in his Seattle stint (I dunno the stats off the top of my head, but I don't remember him being all-world.) Cf Randy Moss the year before he was signed to his time here to his time after being cut. Givens, Patten... as I recall all of them fell off the face of the earth after Foxborough. And remind me again about how Reche Caldwell lit it up after he left town?

Wes Welker's body of work for Miami? Not so impressive. Now in his case, he's actually still a dangerous guy with Denver (mainly to his own noggin, but still.)

Whatever we want to argue about "Today's Tom Brady," let's not go back and revise a history of making the receivers around him better.

I still think we'll be looking at a very good QB who had a stinker game on week one by year's end. I might be wrong and I understand that. However, it's certainly the case that a stint forced into service as his receiving pal has never been that terrible a tour of duty in the past years we're discussing.

SHOWTIME15 · Sep 14, 2014

Kind of hard to throw a consistent deep ball when you are zoning in on Gronk every play.

PatsFanInVa · Sep 14, 2014

Yeah I worry about the Gronk Binky reaction too. Better to spend a few more throws at (was it) Edelman, where he zigs and you zag and you have to grab your helmet b/c you're not on the same page... until you've got it right. Of course, that works best when ironed out in practice rather than in mid-game.

You develop that click with everybody else -- and w/Edelman, if I was right about the play I'm thinking of, shouldn't be happening at this point -- and ta daaaa, no more Gronk crutch.

To judge this place, we'd be happy dialing in on any guy who helps us win OMG RIGHT NOW! Naturally you need some of that. But I assume we will be without Gronk in our last game, at whatever level that last game is played. So best to be comfortable with every pair of hands on the offense.

saspack · Sep 14, 2014

Hate to say this. Brady is going down hill and going fast. Don't be surprised BB trades him in a couple of years.

A theory on Tom Brady's Deep Ball

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